Team Almost as Cool as a Narwhal (OU RMT)

Intro:

This is my first RMT, so please bear with me and the horrible name.


The Lead:



Machamp (M) @ Lum Berry
Ability: No Guard
EVs: 240 HP/248 Atk/8 Spd/12 SDef
Adamant nature (+Atk, -SAtk)
- Dynamicpunch
- Bullet Punch
- Payback
- Ice Punch

Machamp is just amazing. He is one of, if not the best lead I have ever used. He holds a Lum Berry so he can shrug off the occasional Spore, or any other status inducing attacks. He can usually take down 2-4 of the other player's Pokemon. Dynamicpunch is pretty self-explanitory, with STAB 100 base power, 100% chance of confusion, and perfect accuracy. Bullet Punch is there to finish off Pokemon with low health and prevent them from exploding or baton passing. Payback is perfect for punishing Ghost-types switch-ins who are expecting a Dynamicpunch. Ice Punch usually OHKO's Salamance and an Ice Punch + Bullet Punch combo finishes off Dragonite.

Against other leads and other Pokemon

Azelf - Virtually all Azelf leads start by either Taunting or laying down Stealth Rock. Since Machamp is slower, a super-effective, double powered, Payback brings it down to 1% because of Focus Sash. Bullet Punch finishes off the job, without giving it the chance to Explode. Threat Level: *

Aerodactyl - Pretty much the same as Azelf, but I use Ice Punch instead of Payback. Threat Level: *

Blissey - Blissey will almost always start by using Thunder Wave or Toxic, thinking that she's going to cripple Machamp and save some of her teammates from getting sweeped. However, thanks to Lum Berry, Machamp can just Dynamicpunch her to hopefully get a 2HKO (I'm not really sure how many Dynamicpunches is needed to take down Blissey, I don't have much experience with her against Machamp. Threat Level: *** (in case Lum Berry is already used up)

Breloom - Like Blissey, Breloom will come in using Spore. But once again, thanks to Lum Berry, Machamp has nothing to worry about. Ice Punch + Bullet Punch eliminates the mushroom-head. Threat Level: ** (in case Lum Berry is already used up)

Celebi - See Breloom, but instead of Spore, it's usually Thunder Wave or Stealth Rock. Threat Level: **

Dusknoir - Unless I catch him switching-in with Payback, I usually switch into Roserade to sub-seed him and set up Toxic Spikes. Then, after Toxic Spikes are set up, I switch to Porygon-Z to kill him with Dark Pulse. Threat Level: ****

Dragonite - Dragonite is bulky enough to just barely survive an Ice Punch, so I use Bullet Punch to seal its fate. If Machamp has already taken some heavy damage, he pretty much has no chance of surviving. Threat Level: ***

Empoleon - I just Dynamicpunch to 2HKO him, and if it's a SubPetaya version, Three Dynamicpunches to get it down to 25%. Then, the Petaya Berry activates. If he doesn't have Drill Peck, Machamp is usually as good as dead. If not, Machamp will take some minor damage from a STAB Surf. Threat Level: ***

Flygon - See Dragonite. Threat Level: **

Forretress - I switch to Electivire to kill it with a Flamethrower. Threat Level: **

Gengar - A switch-in Payback usually OHKO's it. If not, I Bullet Punch it. However, if he switches in without taking Payback damage, I switch into Gyarados to 2HKO it with STAB Waterfall. Threat Level: ***1/2 (3 and a half)

Gliscor - See Dragonite. Threat Level: *1/2 (1 and a half)

Gyarados - Switch into Electivire for Thunderbolt. Threat Level: **

Heatran - Not really sure, I have zero experience with Machamp vs. Heatran, but theoretically, I would Dynamicpunch until either one of them falls. Threat Level: Unknown

Hippowdon - Ice Punch twice. The sandstorm isn't very appreciated though. >:( Threat Level: *1/2 (1 and a half)

Infernape - I switch into Gyarados and pray that it doesn't have Stone Edge. If it does, I go to Cresselia to Toxic Stall it. Threat Level: ***1/2 (3 and a half)

Kingdra - No experience with it against Machamp. Thread Level: Unknown

Jirachi - I use Payback in hopes that it switches into a Ghost type. If not, I'm stuck into using Payback if it has Trick. However, if it has Iron Head, I really have no idea. I usually just wait until Machamp is dead then switch into Electivire who is 2HKO'ed by Iron Head and slower than Jirachi. If the first Iron Head flinches Electivire, then he's as good as dead. Then I go to Roserade, who suffers the same fate as Electivire, but instead of Flamethrower, I use Leech Seed. Then I usually either go to Gyarados to try to kill it with STAB Waterfall or switch into Cresselia to stall it out while sapping its health. I'm in desperate need of a better counter. Any suggestions? Threat Level: *****

Lucario - Dynamicpunch to bring down it's health. If Machamp isn't able to finish it off with a second Dynamicpunch, I go to Gyarados for Earthquake. Threat Level: ***1/2 (3 and a half)

Machamp - Most Machamps, especially Leads, have an Adamant nature and invest 4 EV's into Speed. Notice how my Machamp has 8 EV's so that he can have the upper hand. I just Dynamicpunch until one of the Machamps are dead. Threat Level: ****

Magnezone - Dynamicpunch it to death. Threat Level: **1/2 (2 and a half)

Mamoswine - See Heatran. Threat Level: Unknown

Metagross - I just Dynamicpunch until Machamp is dead unless I get lucky and Metagross's confusion kicks in every turn. If Machamp does die, I switch into Electivire for Flamethrower. Threat Level: ***1/2 (3 and a half)

Ninjask - Bullet Punch it to death. Threat Level: * (if the other player is smart enough to use Baton Pass before it's health get's too low, then I might be in danger depending on who he passes to speed boosts to.

Salamence - Ice Punch for an OHKO. Threat Level: **

Scizor - Dynamicpunch and usually Machamp will go down. Then I go to Electivire for Flamethrower. Threat Level: *** (3 and a half)

Skarmory - Ice Punch, and if Machamp dies, then I go to Electivire for Thunderbolt. Threat Level: ****

Smeargle - Dynamicpunch OHKO's it before it can pass it's boosts or set up too many entry hazards. Threat Level: *

Swampert - I just switch to Electivire and use HP Grass. Threat Level: ****

Tyranitar - If Machamp hasn't taken any prior damage, he'll survive one hit from Tyranitar then OHKO it with Dynamicpunch (assuming it doesn't carry the berry that reduces Fighting type's power, in which case I use Bullet Punch to finish the job. Threat Level: ***

Weavile - See Tyranitar. Threat Level: ***


The Threat Eliminator



Electivire (M) @ Expert Belt
Ability: Motor Drive
EVs: 36 Atk/220 Spd/252 SAtk
Mild nature (+SAtk, -Def)
- Thunderbolt
- Hidden Power [Grass]
- Cross Chop
- Flamethrower

Electivire finds a nice place on my team to eliminate all of Machamp's threats (except for Jirachi, and sometimes, Togekiss can be troublesome for Electivire if he flinches too much.) Thunderbolt is just a nice STAB attack and takes care of Swellow and Staravia. HP Grass is my only way of eliminating Swampert. Cross Chop takes care of Tyranitar, Weavile, Heatran, and Umbreon. Flamethrower is to control steel types, especially Scizor and Forretress before they can cause too much damage (and they both just happen to be 4x weak to fire!) Electivire also acts as a nice Electric attack shield for Gyarados, and thanks to Motor Drive, Electivire is happy about it too!


The Subseeding Menace



Roserade (F) @ Leftovers
Ability: Natural Cure
EVs: 252 Spd/252 SAtk/4 SDef
Timid nature (+Spd, -Atk)
- Substitute
- Leech Seed
- Sludge Bomb
- Toxic Spikes

Roserade is great, due to her low HP and high speed, she makes a great subseeder and counter to Blissey. One turn of sapping Blissey's health heals Roserade for about 31%! That's more than enough to make another Substitute! (This combo of low HP subs + Leftovers + high speed is great against other Pokemon too.) Plus, Sludge Bomb and Toxic Spikes make the Pink Puff go down faster.

Against other grass types who resist Leech Seed, Sludge Bomb is almost always an OHKO for them, and combined with the damage from Toxic Spikes, it's pretty much over for them.

Her greatest threat is Venusaur, who resists Leech Seed, Sludge Bomb, AND absorbs Toxic Spikes.

NOTE TO READER: Should I replace Toxic Spikes with regular Spikes? And I desperately a status healer. Should I replace one of her attacks with Aromatherapy?


The Deadly Sweeper



Gyarados (M) @ Expert Belt
Ability: Intimidate
EVs: 252 HP/4 Def/252 Spd
Jolly nature (+Spd, -SAtk)
- Dragon Dance
- Waterfall
- Stone Edge
- Earthquake

Do I even need to explain this? Dragon Dance powers up his attacks and boosts his speed, allowing him to sweep. I usually bring him in on a Fire-type besides Heatran, allowing him to boost while the opponent switches out. Waterfall, Stone Edge, and Earthquake provide great coverage, resisted only by Grass types.


Blissey v2.0



Cresselia (F) @ Light Clay
Ability: Levitate
EVs: 252 HP/148 Def/68 Spd/40 SDef
Bold nature (+Def, -Atk)
- Reflect
- Light Screen
- Toxic
- Moonlight

While many would disagree, I find Cresselia to be a far superior wall to Blissey, with access to the Dual Screens and a base Defense stat that's x12 higher. I set up Reflect and Light Screen (the order depends on the Pokemon she's against.) Then I use Toxic and Moonlight to stall out the opponent.

She has great trouble against Steel-types, so I use Electivire to cover her.


The Frail Sweeper



Porygonz @ Life Orb
Ability: Download
EVs: 4 Def/252 Spd/252 SAtk
Bold nature (+Def, -Atk)
- Nasty Plot
- Tri Attack
- Dark Pulse
- Hidden Power [Fighting]

Life Orb + Download + Nasty Plot = ENORMOUS power. However, Porygon-Z's average speed and pitiful defenses leave little to be desired. Tri Attack is a reliable STAB attack, while Dark Pulse hits Ghost-types who are immune to both Tri Attack and HP Fighting. HP Fighting hits bulky Normals, Rock-types, and Steel-types hard.

NOTE TO READER: Porygon-Z usually dies after 1 Nasty Plot and 1 Attack. Any suggestions for a better Pokemon? Preferably a status healer or Jirachi counter.




General Threats

-Jirachi
... and, that's pretty much it...


Thanks!
 
Gyarados needs atk evs instead of Hp evs. If you want a bulky version of Gyarados, it usually carries taunt over EQ and has leftovers. Also, why wouldnt you switch in on Heatran? Gyarados is an effective counter to Heatran.

Cresselia can be seriously hampered by the presence of Sandstorm which almost render Moonlight worthless. Toxic is none too reliable with the prevalence of Steels in the OU metagame. Cresselia also has a crippling weakness to U-turn and Pursuit. (two very common moves in the metagame) Also, what makes you think Electivire can switch in on steels so easily? Blissey is the better wall who can also pass wishes to your team. But if you want to set up dual screens with Cress, I would replace Porygonz with a pokemon that counters Cresselia counters (such as ttar). That way you can immediately start to set up once or twice and sweep without wasting the screens duration.

Roserade - first of all, in OU, venusaur will come across you only once in a blue moon. Don't worry about it. I would replace sludge bomb with grass knot.

Electivire- you say he's nice because he eliminates Machamps counters. As your lead Machamp usually won't last past the early game. If you really want a electric type to cover for Gyarados, I would look into Jolteon. He provides some much needed speed and revenge killing.

I would think about what is the focus/purpose of your team? Also, jirachi is not your only threat.
 
its not really a good idea to run moonlight on cresselia with all the ttars around so change the set to one like this

Cresselia @Leftovers
Nature: Bold/Calm
Ability: Levitate
-Rest
-SleepTalk
-IceBeam/Toxic/Charge Beam/Physic
-LightScreen/Reflect

hope i helped
 
First for your P-Z problem I advice a Scarf Heatran or Agility Lucario.
Scarf Heatran is an exellent revenge killer and can kill jirachi with Earth power and fire Blast. Agility lucario may not have the power of SD luke but has the speed to outrun all Jirachi and kill it with CC.

With Staravia? Do you mean Staraptor? And Staraptor and Swellow aren't commonly seen in OU, same with Venusaur.

I will consider Specs Jolteon over E-vire for more speed and it heals with Volt Absorb.

I think you should use spikes on Roserade, your team likes passive damage more than over time because its more offensive based, you still have Toxic on Cress.
 
Intro:

This is my first RMT, so please bear with me and the horrible name.


The Lead:



Machamp (M) @ Lum Berry
Ability: No Guard
EVs: 240 HP/248 Atk/8 Spd/12 SDef use 16 Sdef
Adamant nature (+Atk, -SAtk)
- Dynamicpunch
- Bullet Punch
- Payback
- Ice Punch

Machamp is just amazing. He is one of, if not the best lead I have ever used. He holds a Lum Berry so he can shrug off the occasional Spore, or any other status inducing attacks. He can usually take down 2-4 of the other player's Pokemon. Dynamicpunch is pretty self-explanitory, with STAB 100 base power, 100% chance of confusion, and perfect accuracy. Bullet Punch is there to finish off Pokemon with low health and prevent them from exploding or baton passing. Payback is perfect for punishing Ghost-types switch-ins who are expecting a Dynamicpunch. Ice Punch usually OHKO's Salamance and an Ice Punch + Bullet Punch combo finishes off Dragonite.

Against other leads and other Pokemon

Azelf - Virtually all Azelf leads start by either Taunting or laying down Stealth Rock. Since Machamp is slower, a super-effective, double powered, Payback brings it down to 1% because of Focus Sash. Bullet Punch finishes off the job, without giving it the chance to Explode. Threat Level: *

Aerodactyl - Pretty much the same as Azelf, but I use Ice Punch instead of Payback. Threat Level: *

Blissey - Blissey will almost always start by using Thunder Wave or Toxic, thinking that she's going to cripple Machamp and save some of her teammates from getting sweeped. However, thanks to Lum Berry, Machamp can just Dynamicpunch her to hopefully get a 2HKO (I'm not really sure how many Dynamicpunches is needed to take down Blissey, I don't have much experience with her against Machamp. Threat Level: *** (in case Lum Berry is already used up)

Breloom - Like Blissey, Breloom will come in using Spore. But once again, thanks to Lum Berry, Machamp has nothing to worry about. Ice Punch + Bullet Punch eliminates the mushroom-head. Threat Level: ** (in case Lum Berry is already used up)

Celebi - See Breloom, but instead of Spore, it's usually Thunder Wave or Stealth Rock. Threat Level: **

Dusknoir - Unless I catch him switching-in with Payback, I usually switch into Roserade to sub-seed him and set up Toxic Spikes. Then, after Toxic Spikes are set up, I switch to Porygon-Z to kill him with Dark Pulse. Threat Level: ****

Dragonite - Dragonite is bulky enough to just barely survive an Ice Punch, so I use Bullet Punch to seal its fate. If Machamp has already taken some heavy damage, he pretty much has no chance of surviving. Threat Level: ***

Empoleon - I just Dynamicpunch to 2HKO him, and if it's a SubPetaya version, Three Dynamicpunches to get it down to 25%. Then, the Petaya Berry activates. If he doesn't have Drill Peck, Machamp is usually as good as dead. If not, Machamp will take some minor damage from a STAB Surf. Threat Level: ***

Flygon - See Dragonite. Threat Level: **

Forretress - I switch to Electivire to kill it with a Flamethrower. Threat Level: **

Gengar - A switch-in Payback usually OHKO's it. If not, I Bullet Punch it. However, if he switches in without taking Payback damage, I switch into Gyarados to 2HKO it with STAB Waterfall. Threat Level: ***1/2 (3 and a half)

Gliscor - See Dragonite. Threat Level: *1/2 (1 and a half)

Gyarados - Switch into Electivire for Thunderbolt. Threat Level: **

Heatran - Not really sure, I have zero experience with Machamp vs. Heatran, but theoretically, I would Dynamicpunch until either one of them falls. Threat Level: Unknown

Hippowdon - Ice Punch twice. The sandstorm isn't very appreciated though. >:( Threat Level: *1/2 (1 and a half)

Infernape - I switch into Gyarados and pray that it doesn't have Stone Edge. If it does, I go to Cresselia to Toxic Stall it. Threat Level: ***1/2 (3 and a half)

Kingdra - No experience with it against Machamp. Thread Level: Unknown

Jirachi - I use Payback in hopes that it switches into a Ghost type. If not, I'm stuck into using Payback if it has Trick. However, if it has Iron Head, I really have no idea. I usually just wait until Machamp is dead then switch into Electivire who is 2HKO'ed by Iron Head and slower than Jirachi. If the first Iron Head flinches Electivire, then he's as good as dead. Then I go to Roserade, who suffers the same fate as Electivire, but instead of Flamethrower, I use Leech Seed. Then I usually either go to Gyarados to try to kill it with STAB Waterfall or switch into Cresselia to stall it out while sapping its health. I'm in desperate need of a better counter. Any suggestions? Threat Level: *****

Lucario - Dynamicpunch to bring down it's health. If Machamp isn't able to finish it off with a second Dynamicpunch, I go to Gyarados for Earthquake. Threat Level: ***1/2 (3 and a half)

Machamp - Most Machamps, especially Leads, have an Adamant nature and invest 4 EV's into Speed. Notice how my Machamp has 8 EV's so that he can have the upper hand. I just Dynamicpunch until one of the Machamps are dead. Threat Level: ****

Magnezone - Dynamicpunch it to death. Threat Level: **1/2 (2 and a half)

Mamoswine - See Heatran. Threat Level: Unknown

Metagross - I just Dynamicpunch until Machamp is dead unless I get lucky and Metagross's confusion kicks in every turn. If Machamp does die, I switch into Electivire for Flamethrower. Threat Level: ***1/2 (3 and a half)

Ninjask - Bullet Punch it to death. Threat Level: * (if the other player is smart enough to use Baton Pass before it's health get's too low, then I might be in danger depending on who he passes to speed boosts to.

Salamence - Ice Punch for an OHKO. Threat Level: **

Scizor - Dynamicpunch and usually Machamp will go down. Then I go to Electivire for Flamethrower. Threat Level: *** (3 and a half)

Skarmory - Ice Punch, and if Machamp dies, then I go to Electivire for Thunderbolt. Threat Level: ****

Smeargle - Dynamicpunch OHKO's it before it can pass it's boosts or set up too many entry hazards. Threat Level: *

Swampert - I just switch to Electivire and use HP Grass. Threat Level: ****

Tyranitar - If Machamp hasn't taken any prior damage, he'll survive one hit from Tyranitar then OHKO it with Dynamicpunch (assuming it doesn't carry the berry that reduces Fighting type's power, in which case I use Bullet Punch to finish the job. Threat Level: ***

Weavile - See Tyranitar. Threat Level: ***


The Threat Eliminator



Electivire (M) @ Expert Belt
Ability: Motor Drive
EVs: 36 Atk/220 Spd/252 SAtk
Mild nature (+SAtk, -Def)
- Thunderbolt
- Hidden Power [Grass]
- Cross Chop
- Flamethrower

Electivire finds a nice place on my team to eliminate all of Machamp's threats (except for Jirachi, and sometimes, Togekiss can be troublesome for Electivire if he flinches too much.) Thunderbolt is just a nice STAB attack and takes care of Swellow and Staravia. HP Grass is my only way of eliminating Swampert. Cross Chop takes care of Tyranitar, Weavile, Heatran, and Umbreon. Flamethrower is to control steel types, especially Scizor and Forretress before they can cause too much damage (and they both just happen to be 4x weak to fire!) Electivire also acts as a nice Electric attack shield for Gyarados, and thanks to Motor Drive, Electivire is happy about it too!


The Subseeding Menace



Roserade (F) @ Leftovers
Ability: Natural Cure
EVs: 252 Spd/252 SAtk/4 SDef
Timid nature (+Spd, -Atk)
- Substitute
- Leech Seed
- Sludge Bomb
- Toxic Spikes

Roserade is great, due to her low HP and high speed, she makes a great subseeder and counter to Blissey. One turn of sapping Blissey's health heals Roserade for about 31%! That's more than enough to make another Substitute! (This combo of low HP subs + Leftovers + high speed is great against other Pokemon too.) Plus, Sludge Bomb and Toxic Spikes make the Pink Puff go down faster.

Against other grass types who resist Leech Seed, Sludge Bomb is almost always an OHKO for them, and combined with the damage from Toxic Spikes, it's pretty much over for them.

Her greatest threat is Venusaur, who resists Leech Seed, Sludge Bomb, AND absorbs Toxic Spikes.

NOTE TO READER: Should I replace Toxic Spikes with regular Spikes? And I desperately a status healer. Should I replace one of her attacks with Aromatherapy?


The Deadly Sweeper



Gyarados (M) @ Expert Belt use life orb or leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
EVs: 252 HP/4 Def/252 Spd
Jolly nature (+Spd, -SAtk)
- Dragon Dance
- Waterfall
- Stone Edge
- Earthquake

Do I even need to explain this? Dragon Dance powers up his attacks and boosts his speed, allowing him to sweep. I usually bring him in on a Fire-type besides Heatran, allowing him to boost while the opponent switches out. Waterfall, Stone Edge, and Earthquake provide great coverage, resisted only by Grass types.


Blissey v2.0



Cresselia (F) @ Light Clay
Ability: Levitate
EVs: 252 HP/148 Def/68 Spd/40 SDef
Bold nature (+Def, -Atk)
- Reflect
- Light Screen
- Toxic
- Moonlight

While many would disagree, I find Cresselia to be a far superior wall to Blissey, with access to the Dual Screens and a base Defense stat that's x12 higher. I set up Reflect and Light Screen (the order depends on the Pokemon she's against.) Then I use Toxic and Moonlight to stall out the opponent.

She has great trouble against Steel-types, so I use Electivire to cover her.


The Frail Sweeper



Porygonz @ Life Orb
Ability: Download
EVs: 4 Def/252 Spd/252 SAtk
Bold nature (+Def, -Atk)
- Nasty Plot
- Tri Attack
- Dark Pulse
- Hidden Power [Fighting]

Life Orb + Download + Nasty Plot = ENORMOUS power. However, Porygon-Z's average speed and pitiful defenses leave little to be desired. Tri Attack is a reliable STAB attack, while Dark Pulse hits Ghost-types who are immune to both Tri Attack and HP Fighting. HP Fighting hits bulky Normals, Rock-types, and Steel-types hard.

NOTE TO READER: Porygon-Z usually dies after 1 Nasty Plot and 1 Attack. Any suggestions for a better Pokemon? Preferably a status healer or Jirachi counter. Life orb heatran or life orb starmie are great alternatives




General Threats

-Jirachi
... and, that's pretty much it...


Thanks!
my changes/suggestions are in italics
 
First off dynamic punch breloom same damage+confusion. Your team would love to get stealth rock out, so hetran might be nice. Hetran would also help your teams defensive typing. Gengar frequently carries thunder bolt, so If machamp is in I would stay in, otherwise if you ev your roserade more defensively it could probably set up on gengar. On Jirachi he 3HKO Machamp with iron head. If you just dynamic punch (and bullet punch if it doesn't 2HKO) then...
36% jirachi will be unharmed (no confusion)
20% machamp loses 35-40%
26% machamp loses 70-80%
18% jirachi loses 49-58%
Meaning
46% machamp wins
54% jirachi wins
18% jirachi gets confused
gyrados is your best switchin on jirachi If the jirachi is hurt and you use a bulky gryara
ddance twice and then ddance If you feel safe you are faster than him. 4 ddances OKHO's jirachi.
 
Thanks for the feedback everyone! I'm going to change the EV's on Gyarados and test Heatran and Lucario.

And @agamemaker, Ice Punch will usually OHKO Breloom, so why would I want to use Dynamicpunch on Breloom? It wastes 1 PP which I could use to score a KO on a different Pokemon. Also, about the damage calculation thing, Machamp is slower than Jirachi and has a 60% chance of flinching every turn...
 
yeah that's what I calculated (jirachi vs machamp). You probably should just switch to gyara. Bulky gyara takes 16-19%, you recover 6%(I'm using lefty's because lefty's is better)then... (here I go with my calcs again )
(in a second I will edit them on this might take a little while)
sd luke(your biggest priority problem) unboosted extreme speed does 32-38%, and is OHKO by +2 and possibly by +1 (it shouldn't be a problem if jirachi opts out)
Jirachi 3HKO no boost, 2HKO +1, (speed change here never ddance once
against jirachi twice is always better) 2HKO +2, 2HKO +3, OHKO +4
corect me if my math is wrong I used this formula (It takes you 3moves to
kill him min speed change takes 4 (equivilent of 3 plus flinch chance and crit chance)
(a-3)x.6^(a-4)x.12+(a-2)x.6^(a-3)x.4=percent chance
75% chance of surviving an extreeme speed (after ddanceing 2 times)
a=number of hits he get's on you before you can kill him, meaning 3hits 2
If waterfall flinch or crits (jirachi crits not included)
My math be wrong because you can get negitive probabilities but here's my reasoning of it.(sorry about the handwriting)
basicly jirachi will be dead and his team will be swept

Machap isn't going to live to punch 8 times he's to slow. Almost all leadchamps have lum so if your opponent switches out he would get confused, but on second thought the ghost switch in might make ice punch beneficial.
 

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