This is why I didn't elect to pursue footy tipping this year
After every round I try and do the Ladder Predictor and my mind explodes. Port should have beaten the Crows. North should've been the Lions. But the beaut of the game is that if you're not here to play, you won't win. No matter who you are up against.
Looking at the top 4 (5 since Geelong are still only out on percentage) only, the following games are huge:
Round 18 Hawthorn VS Sydney MCG
Round 20 Port Adelaide VS Sydney AO
Round 20 Geelong VS Fremantle SS
Round 21 Fremantle VS Hawthorn
Round 22 Hawthorn VS Geelong MCG
Round 23 Fremantle VS Port Adelaide PS
Drop 1 or 2 of these games, kiss top 4 goodbye. That's assuming you win the other danger games (Hawks: Adelaide away, Collingwood; Port: Collingwood, Suns away; Sydney: West Coast away, Richmond ANZ; Freo: Don't really have one, Lions away I guess?; Geelong: North; etc).
Adelaide could make bottom end of the 8. Games against Hawks and Collingwood away don't help but still a decent chance. Essendon could too but I don't see how since they dropped that game against Geelong. If they won that I'd be confident for them to make the 8.
My final top 8 with the logic if they're really close teams, give the win to the home team:
1. Hawthorn 18 wins
2. Port Adelaide 18 wins
3. Fremantle 18 wins
4. Sydney 17 wins
5. Geelong 16 wins
6. Gold Coast 15 wins
7. North Melbourne 14 wins
8. Collingwood 13 wins
If Adelaide can win some away games against North and Collingwood, they'll make the 8. Sydney could also beat Port or Hawks and jump into first. This year is very close and it's shaping up to be fantastic.