The World Cup of Pokémon 2024 - Round 1 [TB @ #414]

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I would like to give a huge thank you to Irpachuza to doing such a great job with the US Midwest custom avatars, they look awesome and are the perfect way for PMD Midwest to make our debut!!!

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lax said:
blunder, 3d, fade, elodin, hellom, and I revealed the pools on smogon's twitch and briefly discussed every pool. uploaded the vod with timestamps below

big thanks to ken for creating the doc we used

timestamps:
1:11:26 SS OU POOLS BEGIN
1:20:00 SM OU POOLS BEGIN
1:27:31 ORAS OU POOLS BEGIN
1:35:50 SV UU POOLS BEGIN
1:42:49 SV UBERS POOLS BEGIN

good luck may the best team win
Click to expand...
genuinely incredible lineup
 
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What's up gamers. Even though there isn't an official predictions tournament this year, as the 2023 champion I still wanted to run it back in some way, so I, Drift Bayless, am going to go through all the pools and give the objectively most qualified forecast and final standings for Round 1 of the 2024 World Cup, in the same way I did privately last year. In the interests of science I will try to be unbiased but keep in mind that I am from Oceania and think everyone on the team is amazing so I always assume they will do well.

SV OU #1:
Uxilon / Raceding / Mimikyu Stardust / Thiago Nunes

Mimikyu Stardust is a beast player and grinder with a lot of momentum and confidence going into this tournament, so off the bat I feel pretty confident saying he'll do well in this pool, though he'll have to avoid choking or getting over-confident against the clear #2 OST semi-finalist, and former SCL teammate of mine, Thiago Nunes. Uxilon and Raceding are obviously more unknown and harder to pin down, with both going undefeated in their respective qualifiers. However due to Raceding's more recent performance, him having the most sheist nicknames I've ever seen, and Uxilon linking to a google drive in his winpost vs Luigi (wtf?), I'm going to say that Raceding doesn't go out without getting one, as I do think China also has the stronger support backbone.

Mimikyu Stardust 3-0
Thiago Nunes 2-1
Raceding 1-2
Uxilon 0-3

SV OU #2:
Trogba Trogba / AK / SKC44 / heileone

The most obvious direct comparison I can make in this pool is between the two ladder demons, AK and heileone. Battling against both several times, my main takeaway is that I usually have to hax AK to beat him and heileone has to hax to beat me. Beyond that, SKC44 is absolutely an underrated player, following up last year's 3-0 vs Vert, Crying and GasaiYunoSan with a 2-0 in this year's qualifiers, only losing to Nat and 1 True Lycan. That being said, I don't think he's quite at AK's SPL level. Finally Trogba Trogba, while clearly a decent player on a team supported by stresh, has the worst sheet record of the pool and did not start for UK last year in the qualifiers. That being said, I still have to favour him over heileone due to having several more years of experience, less "first official" nerves, and admirable performances in OU subforum tours.

AK 3-0
SKC44 2-1
Trogba Trogba 1-2
heileone 0-3

SV OU #3:
Conflict / Kebab mlml / shiloh / Potatochan

I just wanted to mention real quick how excited I am to see Conflict playing SV in tournament. I've been told he's been grinding very hard for it, so it is one of the biggest wildcards in this entire tournament for me. Rozes has rock-solid fundamentals and is one of those players that can pilot any tier or gen successfully, so with Vert teams I expect him to do well. Son of Tricking, Kebab, and the 2-0 in qualifiers Potatochan who I know more for BW LC and 1v1 make this a pretty hard pool to call, and the first one where I don't really feel confident calling a 3-0 for anyone. Kebab's SPL SV showings, and how good Vert's builds tend to be make me think that him and Shiloh will have an upper hand here however, just by SV experience over Conflict and experience full stop over Potatochan. However, what I've seen of Potatochan makes me think he won't go out with a fight.

Kebab mlml 2-1
Shiloh 2-1
Conflict 1-2
Potatochan 1-2

SV OU #4:
Trosko / Chloe / Lily / hellom

First Oceania Pool, and one of SV's three most stacked in the tournament alongside 20 and 21 (in my opinion). Hellom and Trosko obviously stand out, with the two best SV records in this SPL at 10-1 and 10-2. Even though Trosko won their tiebreaker match in SPL semifinals, I do think Hellom is just a touch sharper, with Trosko getting highly fortunate with double Protect and an Amoonguss using a sub-optimal Grass STAB in his playoff games. Ultimately I can't see anyone in this pool going 0-3 though, as they're all good, well supported players, so with Trosko's last WCoP performance in mind I think either Lily or Chloe may be able to pull a fast one on him.

hellom 3-0
Trosko 1-2
Lily 1-2
Chloe 1-2

SV OU #5:
Mister McLovin / Star / Maverick Shooters / KeshBa54

Star is clearly the best player here and should 3-0, straight up. When it comes to discussing everyone else though, things become quite interesting, as Mister McLovin and Mav are both pretty successful players on teams with a lot of drive and energy. KeshBa does not have a lot of data to pull from, but he is a dct1 person and did well in his single qualifiers game. I think I will favour McLovin over Maverick, as what I've seen from him makes me think he'll be able to adapt to whatever freaky shit Mav cooks, and I also think he has better SV support behind him in the form of Raptor. That said, I do trust Mav to be able to overcome someone scouted from DCT1, as he is a successful ladder grinder in his own right, along with an ok SPL.

Star 3-0
Mister McLovin 2-1
Maverick Shooters 1-2
KeshBa54 0-3

SV OU #6:
Eoward / Hiko / Trickster7 / devin

Really hard to say. Devin clearly has the most experience but is far from invincible here, Trickster7 won vs Leftiez last year and has randomly been having a godlike PSPL of all things, if you value that at all. Eoward has the captain buff and had a solid showing last year taking out oldspicemike, and Hiko is someone I know is pretty good, a Maverick Shooters type character with some nice indiv showings, but is less experienced and did struggle a tiny bit in OUPL, though he did beat hellom. I think none of these players have the consistency to reliably 3-0 this pool but I think they're also all close enough that none will 0-3. My decision here is going to weigh mostly on their experience.

Eoward 2-1
devin 2-1
Hiko 1-2
Trickster7 1-2

SV OU #7:
xavgb / Malekith / zS / Xrn

Death pool alert! Stresh has the potential to be the best SV player on this site even though he's been more lowkey recently, Malekith is of course amazing, albeit tiltable, and carried Spain to a win in 2023 and Xrn is a bona-fide sheet warrior with solid performances in SPL SV. zS is a great player and did well in OST, but he truly pulled the shortest of straws here for his first WCoP and his first team tour foray into OU, which I truly regret having to say. I hope he proves me wrong.

xavgb 2-1
Malekith 2-1
Xrn 2-1
zS 0-3

SV OU #8:
hi.naming is hard / Dhrabb / Yves Stone / Vert

Pretty similar to the Star pool, would shock me if Vert didn't clean up. I admittedly don't know much about the other three other than them being ladder players. Yves Stone impressed me in qualifiers, especially in his game vs bea in tiebreakers. He's also the second most experienced, and reading his winposts shows me that he's a respectful player with a growth-mindset, so I'd favour him over the other two, who then between them I'd probably go with h.nih, just because he has more badges and because Dhrabb wasn't a part of Bangladesh's dominance in 2023.

Vert 3-0
Yves Stone 2-1
hi.naming is hard 1-2
Dhrabb 0-3

SV OU #9:
Lazuli / lax / S1nn0hC0nfirm3d / Career Ended

How come all my bros end up against some demons. I feel mostly confident that Lax will 2-1 at minimum, he's just too solid at this tier. S1nn0h similarly is someone I've worked with in the past, and the "IDGAF" attitude is definitely just a facade in these tours, his SCL was amazing and he had a positive SV run in SPL. My bro Career Ended is less experienced in officials, but is a ribbon holder who has been around forever and is just too good to go out sad, and similarly I have to give credit to Lazuli as someone who's been on this website as long as I have and was a 2-0 part of Chile's dominant qualifiers run. It might be controversial, but I think all of these players can get wins here.

lax 2-1
S1nn0hC0nfirm3d 2-1
Career Ended 1-2
Lazuli 1-2

SV OU #10:
DugZa / vk / Eeveeto / mncmt

Return of goatceania. Eeveeto is going to load something insane and ruin someone's life, DugZa did really amazing in OST, vk is another Maverick/Hiko type character who won the Brazil charity bowl, though none of his opps were super crazy, and mncmt is just the best player here. It's probably fair to give vk the same rating I gave Maverick and Hiko of 1-2, and I think his ladder addiction will actually serve him well vs Eeveeto's style. mncmt is also a lock for either 2-1 or 3-0, but a 1-1 in qualifiers makes me err on the side of caution after a negative SPL. Eeveeto and DugZa is way harder to say, because it become an argument of indiv success vs teamtour success, but I already said I'm going to be a little biased, and if I think Eeveeto might struggle to fluster vk, I don't think it's super likely for him to compensate by beating mncmt AND DugZa.

mncmt 2-1
DugZa 2-1
Eeveeto 1-2
vk 1-2

SV OU #11:
Mada / Alhen / Ash KetchumGamer / Baloor

Really fun group with a lot of up-and-comers. Mada is of course the favourite by traditional sheet metrics, after a very solid SPL but it's clear that he isn't infallible. Baloor is someone who's teams I've had success with since SV came out and a friend of mine, but he gets in his own head so easily and it gets dangerous in high stakes games Ash KetchumGamer is a grinder with a lot of experience, and had a nice SPL as well. Alhen to me is a completely unknown quality but he benched for Europe last year and had a good OUPL. It'll be interesting to see how Mada and AKG operate outside of the by all accounts great learning environment of the 2024 Tyrants. It seems safest to rank them based on SPL XV performance.

Mada 3-0
Ash KetchumGamer 2-1
Baloor 1-2
Alhen 0-3

SV OU #12:
Stareal / Let's rumble shall we / L lawliet / aesf

Not super familiar with some of these players. aesf has been around for a very long time and doesn't play often in teamtours but he's a tidy 3-1 all time and builds solid. L lawliet and let's rumble are both newcomers, both going 1-2 in qualifiers not making a huge impression. Stareal is 5-11 with a middling OUPL, but making Smogon Tour playoffs is nothing to scoff at so he strikes me as a clear #2 here. As for the last two Rumble's only qualifier win was Ubers, so even though he's pretty unknown I'd slightly favour L lawliet in a match between them.

aesf 3-0
Stareal 2-1
L lawliet 1-2
Let's rumble shall we 0-3

SV OU #13:
Antonazz / zMisaka / Piyush25 / Pais

I have no idea who zMisaka is. They have 2 posts and I don't think they've ever played a tournament game. Antonazz meanwhile I have a great idea of who they are, the best OST finisher in this tournament and a regular ladder grinder, less like the Maverick/Hiko/vk category though and more in a similar vein of his teammate AK. Strong player with strong teams. Piyush is one of my personal favourite players, he had an alright SPL but in general he has very strong fundamentals and I expect him to do well like he did last year, similarly Pais of course is a player who did quite well last year and has been doing his thing for a while. Maybe zMisaka is a secret demon but there's only one real conclusion that feels right to me here.

Antonazz 2-1
Piyush25 2-1
Pais 2-1
zMisaka 0-3

SV OU #14:
Soul king0 / Fogbound Lake / ninjadog / zioziotrip

Pretty scary pool for my bro. Soul King won his qualifying game vs a korean player, but due to a lack of evidence I have to make a raw aura check. He plays mostly lower tiers and natdex (-100 aura), 2023 join date (-100 aura) and he is only 16 years of age (-100 aura), he seems like he has promise, and if he keeps at it he can blossom into a great player, but users this young in the modern era of smogon tournaments typically just can't keep up with players as experienced and seasoned as the other three in this pool. Speaking of those other three, Fogbound is really hard to assess as a solid WCoP and great SCL was followed by a pretty disastrous SPL (albeit one where he faced Hellom, mncmt, Finch, CTC, Trosko and Raptor). I can understand that one bad showing doesn't define a player though, and just by looking at his play I know he is fundamentally solid, especially with German support. Zioziotrip is the favourite in terms of just sheet analysis, and recent SPL performance, and ninjadog, a player with rock solid fundamentals, is coming off of a positive 2023 WCoP including a win over Mada, and a game that went to the wire vs Garay. My heart wants to make this a 3 way 2-1 pool, and I believe this is feasible especially if Fogbound has timer trouble, but I've already shown a bit of bias so I'll just rank them strictly off of the recent data.

zioziotrip 3-0
Fogbound Lake 2-1
Ninjadog 1-2
Soul king0 0-3

SV OU #15:
Soulwind / INSULT / Typical_bastard / ima

Very similar to the last pool, where it's three great players and one really unlucky guy. TB played ORAS in qualifiers, and I actually think he's pretty good, but I don't think any upsets are happening here. The other three are pretty under the radar SV threats, Ima grinds a lot and was doing very well in the DCT, and Insult had the best OST finish in this pool, top 16. Soulwind speaks for himself, pardon the dickriding. Insult going 0-3 last year was pretty evidently a freak accident, but it represents a historical instability in East that make me hesitate to put him as 3-0. That said Soulwind's 3-3 record in the previous WCoP and non-mainer status also makes me hesitate to put him as 3-0. Ima's sheet differential isn't comparable to the two others, but sheets simply don't tell the whole story and I expect him to keep up after watching him play on ladder. I expect these three top SV players who don't often play SV in teamtours to trade wins with one another.

Soulwind 2-1
INSULT 2-1
ima 2-1
Typical_bastard 0-3

SV OU #16:
Fant'sy Beast / Kaif / Finchinator / Twixtry

This pool is of course defined by the presence of another titan of East, Finchinator. Fant'sy Beast is a newcomer to officials, but they have some success in randbats and they have been around for a long time, so I'm not going to write them off completely. I think the other three have a sort of rock-paper-scissors dynamic: Finchinator is the type of player I think in my head as a brick wall that puts the burden on you to get past it, having a solid grasp on game sense, the meta, positioning, win-conditions and risk management, in this sense, Finchinator can be thought of as one of the tallest, widest walls in SV OU. If you try and just smash through a wall, you're going to knock yourself out, you have to climb it, and what that entails is being proactive and calling out as many of his highly calculated, lowest possible risk plays as possible, even if it means making hard callouts multiple turns in a row. In this regard I think Kaif, an aggressively minded player from an already offense-centric team and Smog Tour week winner, has what it takes to climb Finch in this regard. Conversely, I think Twixtry will beat Kaif and lose to Finch for the same reason: Experience.

Finchinator 2-1
Kaif 2-1
Twixtry 2-1
Fant'sy Beast 0-3

SV OU #17:
Ahsan-219 / Mako / JJ09LIE / 3d

Extremely zany pool, I can't envision any of these players going 0-3, but I also don't see anyone here going 3-0. JJ09LIE had a great showing in SPL for a player so new to smogon, 3d went positive in SPL as well in SS but is a known SV grinder who seems to be hitting his stride as of late. Ahsan qualified first seed for Smogtour with a majority of his points in SV, and Mako is an SPL oldgens regular with great fundamentals, though with a 2-2 record in Chile's last two years of qualifiers. From watching the games of all these players, and understanding the support and drive of each respective team, I feel I can make the following prediction with some confidence.

JJ09LIE 2-1
3d 2-1
Ahsan-219 1-2
Mako 1-2

SV OU #18:
Welli0u / Chaos23333 / freezai / TPP

Well is so good bruh. I saw this man play a Stour series the other day and that shit was like poetry. Inspiring. Freezai's content brain realises the marketability of the World Cup format so he plays like god any time I've seen him in one, but he has his limits and that limit may be my goat, Thai Dollar Sign. TPP is a really solid player who unfortunately loses more often than he wins so I expect this trend to continue with him playing really solid but losing more often than he wins, though in an easier pool he'd do great, he's not cursed or anything. I like Chaos, he's done pretty good in qualifiers for the last couple years and he's good at LC (I think his main tier?), but like many other players on China he has monsters to contend with.

Welli0u 3-0
freezai 2-1
TPP 1-2
Chaos23333 0-3

SV OU #19:
mind gaming / Leavers / yovan33321 / elodin

Mind stands out as a favourite in an otherwise tricky pool, basically having ran SV and smogon tournaments in general throughout the duration of 2023. As a player who is known to thrive when with his fellow Germans I expect him to be in game form again, even after a successful hiatus in DPP in the previous SPL. Leavers, Oceania's newest starter, is more of an indiv grinder, but I can tell you first hand that he's one of Oceania's players I've struggled sparring against most in the last few years, and I expect him to be able to keep up with veterans like Elodin who are comparatively less immersed in SV. Yovan has been around for a long time and has always been pretty good, but as of late he's been grinding a lot, and is currently doing solid work in Smogon Tour. I don't think there's a clear answer between these three, at all, as a lot of data just isn't there. I am still pretty big on Mind as a player though.

mind gaming 3-0
Leavers 1-2
yovan33321 1-2
elodin 1-2

SV OU #20:
Garay oak / Niko / oldspicemike / emforbes

As mentioned, this pool and the one following it I believe to be one of the three most stacked SV pools in this entire tournament. Garay and Niko both have even sheet records with high game counts, and following a 6-1 and 3-1 in 2023's WCoP respectively, expecting either to not get at least one simply doesn't make sense. This contrasts with oldspicemike, a newer player in terms of sheet games but one currently rocking a formidable 16-7 record (that I may or may not have contributed to). Finally is emforbes, who has the highest sheet differential, but has never played SV OU in an official team tour before. It is worth mentioning though, that he is an VGC Regional Champion in Gen 9, and as we all know, mons is mons. These players are all too close to each other to make a 3-0 reasonable imo, and in the end my forecast came down to motivation, enjoyment and time put into the tier

Garay Oak 2-1
oldspicemike 2-1
Niko 1-2
emforbes 1-2

SV OU #21:
Rubyblood / Dasmer / Raptor / March Fires

Evil ass pool, but one that I don't think there is a lot to say about. Out of these Chisato is the best and Dasmer probably the worst but the gap isn't that massive all things considered. I literally have no idea about Ruby vs Tape, but I think the good SV in SCL evens out the bad SV in SPL, and just by sheer SV tournament experience I think it would be unfair to not give Rubyblood his credit even if I think Tape is also one of the best players on this site generally speaking.

Chisato 3-0
Rubyblood 2-1
March Fires 1-2
Dasmer 0-3

SV OU #22:
Baddy / myjava / TheFranklin / PZZ

This pool is actually pretty funny, since Baddy is a solid ladder player roaming the 2000s who I remember telling to tryout for team UK, so I'm glad to see that he actually made it. Unfortunately he's up against three SPLers, with myjava being the obvious favourite after a 7-2 SPL and with support from grinder players like Blimax and Mav. I remember TheFranklin being hyped as the next big thing a while ago, and he's definitely the most prolific player here in terms of team tournaments, so I would also expect him to get at least one. PZZ is also good but is more of an SM guy. I still think him and Baddy will get away with one each though.

myjava 2-1
TheFranklin 2-1
PZZ 1-2
Baddy 1-2

SV OU #23:
Carkoala / blunder / kythr / GXE

The final great SV pool, Blunder is evidently the favourite with CTC supporting him, but GXE farms me on ladder like literally nobody else so he's for sure going positive as well. Carkoala and kythr are both good friends of mine who had a solid 2023 WCoP, and despite a little bit of inconsistency/nerves, both are players who in general never strike out completely and at their peaks can beat anyone here, so I think predicting any of them to go 0-3 is too risky, making this another strong, even pool.

blunder 2-1
GXE 2-1
kythr 1-2
Carkoala 1-2

SV OU #24:
cscl / xdRudi.exe / Lokifan / sunsets

No clue tbh. Rudi has the most notable past success, and is also on the team with the presumed best support engine, so I do think I would favour him. The other three are coming out of qualifiers, with the only player I'm familiar with, Lokifan going 0-2 in SS. Loki I know better for LC, where he's pretty good, but not quite on the same level of clear, fundamental talent like other LC transplants such as freezai, kythr or ninjadog. I do think he has potential here though. The other two did pretty similar in qualifiers, sunsets beat fade in OST and went 1-2 in main event last year, but cscl beat Xiri in qualis and I think that guy is really good. I think them and Lokifan are all at a level where depending on matchups anything could happen, so I'll cut my losses and assume they trade back and forth.

xdRudi.exe 3-0
Lokifan 1-2
sunsets 1-2
cscl 1-2

SV OU #25:
Mushfiq / Laroxyl / sugarhigh / Luigi

Speaking of LC transplants, Laroxyl is very hard working and very sheist, I think he will do very well with Italian threats building for him. Luigi is the most storied player in this pool but I have put a #DriftingCurse on him for his ocn slander and he will henceforth lose to Laroxyl. Mushfiq is not as good as either in my opinion, which isn't an insult they're just both quite strong and experienced, but he was part of the 2023 Bangla squad and won his tiebreaker game this year, so I can only assume he has some sauce. Sugarhigh Encored a Gholdengo.

Laroxyl 3-0
Luigi 2-1
Mushfiq 1-2
sugarhigh 0-3

SS OU #26:
OranBerryBlissey10 / Raiza / Zoyotte / Luthier

Finally a new tier to write about. Luthier is one of the most epic players ever, though may god have mercy on his future patients if he keeps signing up for these tours. Raiza is also very good and has played and won a lot of tournament games. I don't know much about the remaining two, but off of a raw aura check, OranBerryBlissey10 is a crazy name and he looks like he's about to win two NU classic cups, so he definitely is cooking something.

Luthier 3-0
Raiza 2-1
OranBerryBlissey10 1-2
Zoyotte 0-3

SS OU #27:
Icemaster / MAX UND MAX / Mendeez / Ruft

Icemaster is probably the single most dominant presence on the SV Ubers ladder, with a lot of tournament success in the tier, so even though I know he's not bad at SS OU I have no clue how he ended up here. Especially because I don't think he is better than Max or Ruft, the latter of whom historically does his best work in this tour. Germany is a team with a lot of SS talent so it says a lot that they've elected Max as their best choice, but against a solid pool like this, including a Mendeez who is carrying all that Chile momentum, I don't think he quite runs away with a 3-0. Pretty competitive pool overall, even if one player really belongs somewhere else in my opinion.

MAX UND MAX 2-1
Ruft 2-1
Icemaster 1-2
Mendeez 1-2

SS OU #28:
Akola / damien the genius / ezra / Attribute

Luckily, this is the World Cup of Pokemon and not the World Cup of Putt Party, so after the genius' dominant performance and trophy acquisition in SPL, and an amazing SSPL, we can only imagine he would also excel in a hypothetical SSSPL. Unfortunately, said tournament does not exist, so he will have to settle for 3-0 in this pool instead. Attribute is also quite good though, been doing his thing for quite some time now and is from the golden generation of mono leaguers. That said, ezra is apparently the natdex goat, and Akola has been around for 10000 years and has a decent amount of indiv success, including OST semis during SS. Even if I think Attribute is probably better than both, I don't think either of them will strike out completely.

damien the genius 3-0
Attribute 1-2
Akola 1-2
ezra 1-2

SS OU #29:
Allen-xia / Luispeikou / ABR / TDNT

There is little doubt in my mind that ABR and TDNT will be 2-0 going against each other, so the real question here is who I think would win between master and student here. Unsurprisingly (or maybe surprising if you hold 2023's WCoP in very high regard), I think it will most likely be ABR, the best player on this site. I think it says a lot that he chose to SS after doing well in ORAS in SPL, and TDNT showed he is not invincible in qualifiers, even if it was luck going against him at times. This leaves Allen vs Luis, and even though Luis is clearly strong and more active, Allen has showed a lot of sauce when he has played, and I think China has a lot of unpredictability and dark horse energy to gain an edge in a tier like SS. This is definitely the biggest SS death pool.

ABR 3-0
TDNT 2-1
Allen-Xia 1-2
Luispeikou 0-3

SS OU #30:
Raiyan / Dj Breloominati♬ / Hayburner / Eo Ut Mortus

Overall a pretty linear pool. Eo at his best is one of the best players on this site hands down, and assuming he's playing up to his standard I think he should 3-0 this pool. Hayburner follows close behind though, after a positive showing in SS in SPL, and having the help of other great SS players like 3d and Jyt. Raiyan notably, did beat Hayburner in qualifiers (though I think an experienced player like Hayburner will adapt in the rematch), and despite having very little smogon presence also beat mj twice who I think is not bad. This leaves Spitfire, who is quite a good player despite me having seen some odd misplays in the past, but he did lose to Hayburner in SPL, making that the only comparison I can draw between him and Raiyan. Spitfire could easily just beat Raiyan, so take that prediction with a grain of salt, but I am pretty confident about Eo and Hayburner.

Eo Ut Mortus 3-0
Hayburner 2-1
Raiyan 1-2
Dj Breloominati♬0-3

SM OU #31:
le LLiolae / Chiharu / ChrisPBacon / z0mOG

I also think this is pretty linear. Z0m is one of the best players full stop in this tier and has been for a long time, and VGC Worlds isn't until August(?) so as far as I'm aware he won't have much distracting him on that front. Chris is absolutely flames, won the SM circuit and is a very consistent up-and-comer in general. Chiharu is a bit of a question mark but many good players have commended him and he is a known grinder for years now. LLiolae isn't bad and did well last WCoP, but he's had pretty bad losing streaks in the past, and with all the information I've heard about Chiharu, I'd have to say he gets at least one. It's the same case of Raiyan and Spitfire though, where I'm giving the player with less information benefit of the doubt, so wouldn't be surprised if LLL just wins.

z0mOG 3-0
ChrisPBacon 2-1
Chiharu 1-2
le LLiolae 0-3

SM OU #32:
ChaFouuu / Reze / BlessyZ / Skypenguin

Skype is probably the best SM player and then on top of that he got a pool without any major threat players. I think this should be the safest 3-0 pick so far, maybe other than Vert. As for the other three though, they seem close enough. BlessyZ has been around for a long time and had a solid game vs rey for tiebreakers, Reze was on Spain last year and won the game he played, and ChaFouuu is a ladder grinder who made SM Circuit playoffs. The latter two also played Stour weeks a lot and seemed to beat some good players. After some research, I think Reze is a bit better than the rest and Blessy a bit less, as they're more of a BW main and weren't Africa's first pick for SM. They also played in a SM Stour once and Reze won, so take that as you will.

Skypenguin 3-0
Reze 2-1
ChaFouuu 1-2
BlessyZ 0-3

SM OU #33:
lza / azogue / Empo / Larry

Of course, like many people, for many years before I developed an interest in competing in tournaments, I was a humble PS main. To me, the game was about shitposting in ps rooms, and when I peaked a ladder I felt like I was the best player on the planet. Most people on PS! don't even know about the competitive scene, apart from some specific names like McMeghan, but even back then I remember a constant debate about two players so powerful, regular old people in the OU room knew about it: Is ABR or Empo the goat? Even if these days most would say the former, it cannot be denied how good Empo is at SM and I expect him to 3-0, even though the opponents here are not bad at all. From watching the qualifiers matches, I definitely think Azogue is a bit better than lza, but Leru is a lot harder to pin down. As far as I know he's positive on a bunch of different SM sheets and has won SM stuff, played it in officials etc etc, and as funny as the Mega Houndoom was, and as good as azogue is at tiers like NU, I think that Leru's greater OU experience and historically strong WCoP record makes me favour him more when using more standard stuff. Plus he's gonna scam act anyway.

Empo 3-0
Larry 2-1
azogue 1-2
lza 0-3

SM OU #34:
Soumav / J0RIS / Tace / Tamahome

Tama obviously is the biggest name here, and seems poised to do well, but I don't think they will quite 3-0 judging from the 2024 and 2023 qualifiers, more realistic to me is a 2-1, especially when someone like Tace is in this pool, who does well in basically any of the three Smogtour tiers at any given time, including a strong performance in OST and OUPL this year. With SM being in my opinion his best gen, I also suspect he will go positive in this pool. Soumav is a major player to look at in this pool, as Amaranth seems to think this guy is Empo. I've seen Ama say some unbelievable shit about randbats players in the past, but generally his judgement seems fair, and I like watching this guy play, so I doubt he will strike out. This leaves the last question as whether I think J0RIS will 1-2 or 0-3. Looking into him, he's been around for a long time and seems to have some good wins. He's been in SPL during SM before and is known to grind, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Tamahome 2-1
Tace 2-1
Soumav 1-2
J0RIS 1-2

SM OU #35:
Relous / bro fist / weirdo faye / GeniusX

Bro fist being back is insanely fire, one of those players who had a lot of mainstream appeal, like Empo I used to know who this guy was and had seen him play before I even knew how to use Smogon properly. Like Tama though, I don't think I can say 3-0 because not only is this his first time playing at a top level in a long time (that I know of), but because this pool is insanely fire in general. Relous has been good for a while, and is obviously on the SM council, and GeniusX is more zoomer-pilled but he's also apparently like the best draft player ever and has been having solid af runs. Weirdo faye seemed to play ok in qualifiers, but this pool is a lot more than ok, and I always see them complaining about some shit on the OU subforum, which makes me think they might have a negative mindset.

bro fist 2-1
Relous 2-1
GeniusX 2-1
weirdo faye 0-3

ORAS OU #36:
Adri / Vileman / RufflesPro / crying

Kicking off ORAS with an interesting pool. Crying stands out as the best general mons player here and recently beat Ruffles in ADPL, but like with everyone who shares her "wacky" approach to the game, I think the chance something doesn't go as planned is significant, especially when none of the players in this pool are bad and all are mainers. The other three actually all made playoffs of the ORAS Ladder Tour, which is as good a metric to compare them as any in my opinion. Vileman did the best, qualifying with the highest seed, making it to finals, and performing better vs Kingofkings than Adri did. This, combined with his superior sheet, makes me think the safer bet is putting him a little above. Adri and Ruffles both have some sauce though and I think both are good enough to beat at least one person. I hope Ruffles upsets everyone he seems like a really nice guy from the posts I read scouting for this, and he's an xray student with help from Z0m apparently, but this is his first official and those nerves can be real af.

crying 2-1
Vileman 2-1
RufflesPro 1-2
Adri 1-2

ORAS OU #37:
Sergio Aguero / xray / dice / Lusa

On the contrary, I think this pool is a lot simpler to rank than the last one. Xray is not only an absolute beast at this tier, but also belongs to Germany, a team full of great ORAS thinkers who will surely keep him in top form and bringing good stuff. Lusa actually had a technically better SPL in ORAS, but comes in slightly lower on my rankings just by experience and a shaky qualifiers, though they are a Stour winner. Dice is a sheet legend with the same amount of wins as xray, 81, but of course is more known for BW. Sergio isn't bad, but his sheet performance just isn't on par with these guys and his performance in SPL wasn't too great.

xray 3-0
Lusa 2-1
dice 1-2
Sergio Aguero 0-3

ORAS OU #38:
Unamed / fade / McMeghan / Jytcampbell

Jon is one of the best ORAS players on this site. McMeghan is one of the best players on this site in general. Jyt had a solid SPL in SS and a great qualifiers, beating Lusa and has really high highs in general. Unamed is a French mainstay who is allegedly pretty good, had an okay OST and okay ORAS Winter Seasonal, but he just hasn't played enough teamtour games or ORAS specifically for me to trust him against these three major threats. Speaking of those threats though, I think they all play at a high enough level that things like matchup and RNG will be a lot more impactful, so I think it's decently likely they trade wins.

fade 2-1
McMeghan 2-1
Jytcampbell 2-1
Unamed 0-3

ORAS OU #39:
Metallica126 / Squirtle Nornor / false / Santu

This pool is mostly straightforward. Santu popped off and went 8-1 in SPL, easily the best ORAS record and one of the best records in the whole tournament. The other ORAS SPL representative, false, is a clear second in this pool in terms of ORAS achievements, and one of Oceania's best players in general. This leaves Squirtle Nornor and Metallica, who both played ORAS in qualifiers. There's not a lot of info about either, but Nornor beat Baganha whereas Metallica lost to him, got a clutch win vs Drachenkeule, top cut Smogon Masters last year, was a part of WCoP 2023 unlike Metallica, has an older join date, and also lucked my ass in an ORAS randbats series once, so I would probably favour him.

Santu 3-0
false 2-1
Squirtle Nornor 1-2
Metallica126 0-3

ORAS OU #40:
Axel / pj / HSK7 / Analytic

Pj is the only one of these players who played in SPL at all this year, let alone in ORAS, so he stands out here as the favourite after a respectable 5-5 record. I don't know much about Axel, but from looking into him he was quite strong when I was a PS main but hasn't played a teamtour in years. He did alright in Masters though so I assume he can do well here if he's been practicing. Analytic's historical perfomances aren't as good as either, but he's certainly experienced in this environment, unlike HSK7, who is a mainer that's did ok in a seasonal to his credit, but after watching his tiebreaker game end in a massive choke I'm a little worried.

pj 3-0
Axel 2-1
Analytic 1-2
HSK7 0-3

SV UU #41:
Wanony / MichaelderBeste2 / London Beats / Floss

Onto the lower tiers, where SCL and Slam records start to become more relevant, we see some interesting names. Michael is obviously not known for UU, but it has to be said that he probably knows something we don't, since he could have picked any tier and went with this one. He also played solid in NU and PU during SCL, and I lowkey think all the usage tiers are pretty similar in skills that carry over. Speaking of usage tiers is Floss as well, who's one of the best RU players and went 3-0 in SV UU in UUPL and 6-3 in RU in SCL. London Beats played ORAS in UUPL but went 4-1; the best on their team, went even in SCL and is just a decent sheet player in general. Wanony meanwhile doesn't have as much to speak of. They went 0-3 in 2023's WCoP, are out of UU Open and are not in UUPL. I'm sure they're not bad, but against three really formidable opponents I have my doubts. Michael is the best but I don't think he is invincible to two lower tier veterans with great UUPL's, I expect wins to be traded.

MichaelderBeste2 2-1
Floss 2-1
London Beats 2-1
Wanony 0-3

SV UU #42:
Rasche / Gilbert arenas / Punny / D2quan

Punny and Marcop are both super good players in general, who both did great in UU in SCL with a 7-2 and a 6-3 respectively. They are clearly the favourites in this pool and should be 2-0 going against each other. When that does happen, I actually think that Marcop has the slight edge. Punny has some key advantages: The slightly better SCL record, beating him in SCL and them playing in UUPL makes me think they're more up to date and devoted to the tier, but I know Marcop is less scoutable, has been lowkey grinding, and had more impressive wins in SCL in my opinion. This combined with Punny going negative in this year's UUPL makes me want to favour him, but only a tiny bit, it seems like a coinflip if anything. Other than that Rasche seems pretty decent, and went positive in SV in this UUPL, and D2Quan had a pretty meh qualifiers and doesn't seem to do much in UU outside of that.

Gilbert arenas 3-0
Punny 2-1
Rasche 1-2
D2quan 0-3

SV UU #43:
Mimilucha / IamLowTier / Eternal Spirit / vivalospride

Gama is the only one of these people that played in SCL, and he did well going 6-5, but he only went 1-1 in qualifiers and I don't think he's quite going to 3-0 this pool, though he is favoured. Vivalospride has been around for a long time and just won UUPL while doing really well in SV, including beating Welli0u and DugZa who I think are super good. Mimilucha also played in UUPL but he went barely negative, though he had a slightly positive BLT with some nice wins, he's definitely not bad, but I don't think he's at the same level as the two I just mentioned. IamLowTier didn't play in UUPL, but had a 2-0 qualifiers including a win over JustFranco, who had a really good UUPL where he beat Mimilucha (though Franco wasn't playing as good during qualifiers fsr idt). Overall I think this pool is mostly balanced, but honestly a lot of that could just be me not knowing UU very well.

Eternal Spirit 2-1
vivalospride 2-1
Mimilucha 1-2
IamLowTier 1-2

SV UU #44:
691 / Kushalos / passion / pdt

PDT is a fucking monster and my favourite UU player, so I think he will 3-0 straight up, to follow up on that 9-3 SCL. Kushalos also played in SCL and had a pretty poor NU, but a pretty good OU that averaged out to an even record. He also is #4 of all time in the UU Hall Of Fame, so I think he's the natural choice for #2 in this pool, especially with UU veteran Lily supporting him. Old-school player passion and 691 were on the same team UUPL team. Passion went for 11k vs 691's 4k and went 3-4 as opposed to 691's 0-1. Since 691 only went 1-1 in qualifiers, I think passion is by all accounts the favourite between them, unless "691" is actually code for player #691 on the sheet, the one and only gr8astard. Anything could happen in this pool depending on how up-to-date Kushalos is though, as he didn't play in UUPL to give a solid metric, but he has done well in SV for tours like RUPL and NUPL.

pdt 3-0
Kushalos 2-1
passion 1-2
691 0-3

SV UU #45:
feen / etern / udongirl / Amukamara

Etern went 8-3 in SCL playing NU, and had an ok UUPL playing SM. I also know he had a great UWC, so I think in general it's fair to say he's just really good at SV lower tiers. With Oceania winning UUWC, I think he'll have the support he needs to do well in this pool. Amukamara is like the best BW UU player (I steal all his teams) and did really well in qualifiers securing a neat 2-0, with a nice win over BluBird (who beat Gama). I am also very sure he will do well. Feen's sheet record is a bit dodgy, but I know him really well, he's been around for a while, and I know that he's generally a solid lower tier player who had a positive SV in UUWC. His fellow RUTL Feliburn did ok in qualifiers so I assume feen can also probably get at least one. Udongirl rode the bench in UUPL, and went 1-1 in qualifiers. She had an alright UUWC, even UUFPL, decent UU Masters, and even though her tournament experience doesn't hold up to everyone else here, she has a distinct advantage in that she's the only CG UU mainer/grinder of the pool. I think she might get one too.

etern 2-1
Amukamara 2-1
feen 1-2
udongirl 1-2

SV Ubers #46:
destroyingpotato / twash / RichardMillePlain / KanzakiHAria

Ubers is, thank god, a tier I know a lot better than UU. RichardMilleGoat had a beautiful 6-1 in UWC and an ok 4-6 in SCL. He does great in indivs, and is above all else a Durian brother of mine. Easiest 3-0 of my life. Kanzaki had a solid 3-3 UWC and seems to play this tier a lot, they do suspects and are in PSPL for Ubers. Twash is a really solid player but I have no clue why they are here and not Icemaster lol, I checked and they have 0 posts in the Ubers subforum, no UWC and no SCL. They have Icemaster support though which is crucial. I see no evidence that destroyingpotato has ever played a game of Ubers. I deadass did /rank on PS and their Ubers GXE is 65. I have no clue what Belgium is cooking but I'm not eating it.

RichardMillePlain 3-0
KanzakiHAria 2-1
twash 1-2
destroyingpotato 0-3

SV Ubers #47:
Calambrito / Serpi / M Dragon / Jhonx~

What is this SPL looking ass CG Ubers pool bro. M Dragon should clear, he had a 5-3 SCL playing this tier and is insane at mons in general. Jhonx is pretty good but plays mostly oldgens, I talk to him in the Ubers discord a decent amount, he seems to keep up with the SV meta and he's signed up for SV in UPL. With a 2-0 in qualifiers, including a win vs LouisIX, I think he'll probably do fine, especially since Mister McLovin and Raptor both did well in UWC and are supporting him. Serpi is obviously an unbelievable player in RBY, but I had no clue this guy had any interest in Ubers, so it's hard for me to favour him over Jhonx with no evidence. He could easily do well if he's a secret god grinder but like, literally nobody except Germany knows. Calamabrito is coming off of an 0-3 in OU for qualifiers and is Bangladesh's third choice for ubers, so I have to rate him at the bottom here.

M Dragon 3-0
Jhonx~ 2-1
Serpi 1-2
Calambrito 0-3

SV Ubers #48:
Giannis Antetokommo-o / Aberforth / Lana / entrocefalo

Super stacked pool, and one that is very close imo. Entrocefalo went 7-2 in SCL and 5-1 in UWC. Ubers TL Aberforth is one of the most historically successful Ubers players from the most historically successful Ubers region, and has easily the best sheet record in this pool. Giannis is extremely talented in indivs, won Ubers Open vs Entro, and won Grand Slam, but his infamous sheet record is always a factor (he might actually be cursed). Lana has no sheet record, but she did have a 5-2 UWC including a win vs Aberforth in a tiebreaker game. These players can all beat each other easily, so I don't foresee any likely 3-0's or 0-3's, but as an SV Ubers Official teamtour, the way I organise the chaos will be based on historic success in official teamtours and SV Ubers teamtours.

Aberforth 2-1
entrocefalo 2-1
Giannis Antetokommo-o 1-2
Lana 1-2

SV Ubers #49:
Suzuya / Scottie / Manaphy / Highlord

Suzuya is my personal GOAT but he got a hard as fuck pool lol. Highlord is the only one of these that played Ubers in SCL, and had a nice 4-5. Manaphy had a nice SV in UWC and has been pretty strong all gen. Scottie is the only non ubers main here, but he knows lower tiers really well in general, and went 11-0 in SCL for LC which is crazy. I know he's been hating LC recently, so maybe his efforts have been fully refocused here. I know he'll win, but I don't know if he goes positive against three mainers who are all good. As a spectator, I am most confident in Suzuya here out of anybody. He's not invincible levels of good but he's got something special, and major clutched for Africa. Alongside him I think it's only fair to put the SCL Ubers success story Highlord, especially with support from OreoSpeedruns on his team. This leaves Manaphy and Scottie, neither of whom will go undefeated I'm sure. Manaphy is a really solid SV Ubers mainer but has a pretty poor sheet record, and Scottie is just a really great player in general, even if lacking the same experience in the tier.

Suzuya 2-1
Highlord 2-1
Manaphy 1-2
Scottie 1-2

SV Ubers #50:
Skyiew / Skarpherim / Fc / Kate

Now THIS is a stacked pool. Fc is like, one of the underrated best players full stop, let alone in Ubers, and had a solid SCL and UWC playing SS while his teammate Amukamara went 7-2 Canada, like Oceania is a top region for Ubers in general. Kate had a 6-0 in UWC, with clutch performances playing Ubers in SCL as well as SPL, giving her an even sheet record. Skyiew went 6-2 in UWC is on a roll from qualifiers, where he beat Manaphy and Suzuya, two great players. Skarph is also a very good ubers player, but went 2-4 in UWC for SV, with US West having a disastrous time in that tour in general. Unbelievably, given the cut-throat level of this pool, I'm not sure if Skarph will win against any of these players, making them easily the best player in this tournament that I think will 0-3, but without any SCL to back their results up, it's honestly the only conclusion I can make based on DLC2 performances for all these players.

Fc 2-1
Kate 2-1
Skyiew 2-1
Skarpherim 0-3

***

If you read all that, I hope you enjoyed my insights. If you wrote all that (or in other words, if you're me), then get a fucking life. Overall, based on these predictions, this is my forecasted final standings:

US South: 23-7
US Northeast: 22-8
Germany: 20-10
Italy: 20-10
Brazil: 19-11
Canada: 17-13
Oceania: 17-13
US Midwest: 17-13

*** TOP 8 CUTOFF ***

France: 16-14
Spain: 16-14
US West: 16-14
Europe: 15-15
India: 15-15
Chile: 14-16
Asia: 11-19
United Kingdom: 11-19
Bangladesh: 9-21
Belgium: 9-21
Africa: 7-23
China: 6-24

Thus Spoke Drifting / WCoP Predictions Winner / Flacko Yokozuna / Grifting / The 500-Toothed Shark of Kiribati / Ayn Randbats / THE GREATEST!!!
 
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If you wanna see how your predictions look in the standings:
- go to the sheet
- go to file -> make a copy
- in your copy tap "allow access" in the top yellow bar
- tap the three stripes in the bottom left, and then select "thread reader [hidden]"
- edit "1" for wins and "-1" for losses in the F and G column to fill your prediction for every match. The match is in the C column.
- the sheet might look glitchy as you're filling but don't worry, once you're done with the group it will fix itself, just replace the formula in uxilon vs raceding (the first matchup) with your prediction
- look at the standings after you're done filling all 50 groups

Did mine with Dababy2 and another friend in vc. Here are the standings of our predictions:

image.png
 
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