Tournament PUPL X - Week 5

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m.A.A.d. City Magmortars (7) vs (2) 420 Houndstoners
SV: fish anemometer vs Kenix
SV: Stories vs sufys
SV: Tuthur vs Axrtix
SS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs maki
SM: ManOfMany vs Piyu
ORAS: TheKingKarp vs entrocefalo
BW: Drud vs Clementine
DPP: BeatsBlack vs TONE
ADV: Monai vs Jisoo
Bo3: pdt vs Danny

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The Gargantuan Golurks (4) vs (6) Malignant Chain Snatchers
SV: Taka vs S1nn0hC0nfirm3d
SV: Bouff vs Ampha
SV: Seraphz vs feen
SS: BloodAce vs OranBerryBlissey10
SM: Xiri vs sugar ovens
ORAS: azogue vs Alice Kazumi
BW: LpZ vs Tack
DPP: frankjosh vs HSOWA
ADV: A plague doc vs plznostep
Bo3: justdrew vs Suzuya

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SCREAM QUEEN LOORS (4) vs (6) Pokestar Pranksters
SV: kyuss vs Beraldo
SV: Baloor vs Larry
SV: lax vs DripLegend
SS: Mada vs gum
SM: robjr vs Hacker
ORAS: Teddeh vs Kiyo
BW: SergioRules vs triple axel blaze
DPP: Leni vs sleid
ADV: Parpar vs Lily
Bo3: zS vs mncmt

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Haunter x Haunter (2) vs (6) Goofy Goober Goodras
SV: MZ vs asa
SV: Floss vs Django
SV: Tenebricite vs ishtar
SS: mj vs Meru
SM: PTF vs Estarossa
ORAS: tko vs Aberforth
BW: Guille vs EviGaro
DPP: Heysup vs JabbaTheGriffin
ADV: TyCarter vs Slowbroth
Bo3: DugZa vs Thiago Nunes

The deadline for this round is Sunday, July 28th at 11:00 PM GMT -4.

m.A.A.d. City Magmortars (0) vs (0) 420 Houndstoners
SV: fish anemometer vs Kenix
SV: Stories vs sufys
SV: Tuthur vs Axrtix
SS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs maki
SM: ManOfMany vs Piyu
ORAS: TheKingKarp vs entrocefalo
BW: Drud vs Clementine
DPP: BeatsBlack vs TONE
ADV: Monai vs Jisoo
Bo3: pdt vs Danny

The Gargantuan Golurks (0) vs (0) Malignant Chain Snatchers
SV: Taka vs S1nn0hC0nfirm3d
SV: Bouff vs Ampha
SV: Seraphz vs feen
SS: BloodAce vs OranBerryBlissey10
SM: Xiri vs sugar ovens
ORAS: azogue vs Alice Kazumi
BW: LpZ vs Tack
DPP: frankjosh vs HSOWA
ADV: A plague doc vs plznostep
Bo3: justdrew vs Suzuya

SCREAM QUEEN LOORS (0) vs (0) Pokestar Pranksters
SV: kyuss vs Beraldo
SV: Baloor vs Larry
SV: lax vs DripLegend
SS: Mada vs gum
SM: robjr vs Hacker
ORAS: teddeh vs Kiyo
BW: SergioRules vs triple axel blaze
DPP: Leni vs sleid
ADV: Parpar vs Lily
Bo3: zS vs mncmt

Haunter x Haunter (0) vs (0) Goofy Goober Goodras
SV: MZ vs asa
SV: Floss vs Django
SV: Tenebricite vs ishtar
SS: mj vs Meru
SM: PTF vs Estarossa
ORAS: tko vs Aberforth
BW: Guille vs EviGaro
DPP: Heysup vs JabbaTheGriffin
ADV: TyCarter vs Slowbroth
Bo3: DugZa vs Thiago Nunes
 
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Week 2 prediction success: 21/30
Week 3 prediction success: 18/29
Week 4 prediction success: 16/26

m.A.A.d. City Magmortars (7) vs (3) 420 Houndstoners
SV: fish anemometer vs Kenix - I lost to Kenix in open, it wouldn't be the most ridiculous upset for him to win here, but it would be a huge upset nonetheless
SV: Stories vs sufys - they're both pretty good and just got decent wins, I think this is basically a flip but mags have a lot more on the line here
SV: Tuthur vs Axrtix - On the flipside neither of them had a great last week, but Axrtix has definitely done a lot more this tour
SS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs maki - thanks to the deadgame, I've never even seen maki play a game of SS
SM: ManOfMany vs Piyu - I dunno, Piyu's clicking hasn't been doing it so far
ORAS: TheKingKarp vs avarice - won the last 3 weeks vs won the last 4, but I've also liked ava's teams and play more. I'm not getting the vibe of successful innovations when I see TKK's games
BW: Drud vs Clementine - I respect the mags for trying to mix it up and this does seem pretty favorable
DPP: BeatsBlack vs TONE - Oh hell yeah Tone is free. DPP's a tough pool though
ADV: Monai vs Jisoo - Oh hell yeah Jisoo is free. ADV's a tough pool though
Bo3: pdt vs Danny - pdt's been a great clicker for a long time but this has been a pretty off tour so far. Danny hasn't played the last 2 weeks and he's still got more wins :s

The Gargantuan Golurks (4) vs (6) Malignant Chain Snatchers
SV: Taka vs S1nn0hC0nfirm3d - Taka's wins have been ok but he hasn't faced a S1nn0h caliber player yet and I'm hard pressed to ever predict against him
SV: Bouff vs Ampha - highlight game! 50/50 on this one
SV: Seraphz vs feen - mildly better wins and losses in what otherwise seems to be pretty even
SS: BloodAce vs OranBerryBlissey10 - Oh hell yeah BloodAce is free. SS's a tough pool though
SM: Xiri vs sugar ovens - If I thought Xiri was more invested in this tour I'd say he's got the teampool and prepping ability to get the upper hand here, but I don't think that
ORAS: azogue vs Alice Kazumi - I've got low trust in Alice after that loss last week, but I also don't think azogue has touched oras pu ever
BW: LpZ vs Tack - highlight game! Tack's record should be better than it is, but LPZ's is just looking real good. Both have been bringing some cool teams and tech, I don't expect a stale game here
DPP: frankjosh vs HSOWA - before this tour I would've favored HSOWA a good amount, but I'm a sheet predicter and frank's been quite a bit better so far
ADV: A plague doc vs plznostep - plague finally picked up a win, but plz just beat monai and broth back to back
Bo3: justdrew vs Suzuya - both 1-3ers playing each other, both seem pretty motivated on Discord, I think Suzuya's looked better in their losses but this one could really go either way

SCREAM QUEEN LOORS (5) vs (5) Pokestar Pranksters
SV: kyuss vs Beraldo - lucked me smh smh smh still good though
SV: Baloor vs Larry - uuuh I know loor can absolutely do it but also those were some bad throws last week and Larry's got a really solid 3-0 going
SV: lax vs DripLegend - I think lax's strength as a clicker is going to come more into play here
SS: Mada vs gum - I guess? Mada also failed to inspire confidence last week
SM: robjr vs Sylveon used calm mind - rob's my goat, but also a much more experienced clicker on a winstreak and not a losing streak
ORAS: teddeh vs Kiyo - idk??? both went 1-2 and then didn't play last week, will this game even happen?
BW: SergioRules vs triple axel blaze - idk??? I haven't been in love with TAB's teams but I also haven't loved Sergio's play or some of their choices (OTR def BEM is gonna stick in my head for a while)
DPP: Leni vs sleid - good players that I have no goddamn clue how to evaluate in DPP
ADV: Parpar vs Lily - I think she's better
Bo3: zS vs mncmt - highlight game! fuck knows man, they've both looked really fucking good and zs bounced back well from his one loss while mence sat out a week. I rate these 2 so highly that I just don't know whatsoever. After thinking for 5 minutes and having no clue who to bold, I'm gonna go with mence because overall I expect a tie more than a loors win
 
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m.A.A.d. City Magmortars (6) vs (4) 420 Houndstoners
SV: fish anemometer vs Kenix - stoners seem to be throwin things at the wall to see what sticks, have 0 data on kenix and fish for ur first game is a rough draw
SV: Stories vs sufys - solar beam duraludon (knows the tier better, cares more)
SV: Tuthur vs Axrtix - generally have liked axrtix's brings a bit more than the tuth fairy's, but i'm also fairly certain that mags sv core will be able to exploit mike's usual stuff. gonna be a cool game!!
SS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs maki - he's over the hump for this pool i think, not expecting to see him lose again
SM: ManOfMany vs Piyu - did not like what piyu was cookin last week and i think MoM has more to prove here
ORAS: TheKingKarp vs avarice - wcop winner avarice continues streak probably
BW: Drud vs Clementine - fully expecting this to be a slaughter, benching dawn after one game seems a bit strange but i suppose it's the cost of locking in
DPP: BeatsBlack vs TONE - love tone but beats has been on a roll as of late and i don't think tone is the one to stop him
ADV: Monai vs Jisoo - i know jisoo played this tier last year but i dunno how much he remembers and i'm fully expecting monai to lock in
Bo3: pdt vs Danny - two goats, this is a really hard matchup to call!! i think danny will lock in bc he wants to go to playoffs, but pdt likes to win and i doubt he's satisfied with his one dub being a mickey

SCREAM QUEEN LOORS (4) vs (6) Pokestar Pranksters
SV: kyuss vs Beraldo - has consistently been pushing the boundaries of SV, overall very strong and i think his understanding of what does and doesn't work is a lot better here
SV: Baloor vs Larry - both very strong players but i think loor cares a lot more about this tour and i know he's beat up over his loss last week, expecting high motivation
SV: lax vs DripLegend - DRIP LEGEND WITH A TROPHY but idk if he clicks better than lax unfort, lax has been struggling with SV though so i'm not counting drip out at all here
SS: Mada vs gum - gum's just better at this tier tbh, also did not like mada's performance vs tene last week
SM: robjr vs Sylveon used calm mind - I BELIEVE IN ROBJR
ORAS: teddeh vs Kiyo - same record so this is basically a coinflip but kiyo has brought differing sauce
BW: SergioRules vs triple axel blaze - sergio's gotten punked a good couple of times unfort :(
DPP: Leni vs sleid - very convincing game from sleid last week, excited to see more, although leni did beat heysup
ADV: Parpar vs Lily - just better at the tier, that game vs goldmason was brutal to watch
Bo3: zS vs mncmt - GUYS I LEARNED MY LESSON OKAY

Haunter x Haunter (6) vs (4) Goofy Goober Goodras
SV: MZ vs asa - highlight game, mz got punked hard last week but i think he bounces back and i've generally liked his games more than asa's this tour
SV: Floss vs Django - did not like whatever django was doing last week, really hope he doesn't get sauced here again
SV: Tenebricite vs ishtar - tenebricite's my guy but i think he's batting out of his league here, however ishtar has shown she's mortal lately so anything is possible! def a lot closer than you'd think
SS: mj vs Meru - dunno why we're moving tene out of ss when he was on a roll but okay!
SM: PTF vs Estarossa - PTF x-1 incoming
ORAS: tko vs Aberforth - BROTHER ABE HAS WON A GAME GOD BLESS
BW: Guille vs EviGaro - calling the upset here, guille has been showing his ability to go up to bat against people with more experience in this tier and i think his cooking will catch evi off guard
DPP: Heysup vs JabbaTheGriffin - if this game happens it will be good and heysup probably wins
ADV: TyCarter vs Slowbroth - ty's been exceeding expectations but i can't bold against the broth baby
Bo3: DugZa vs Thiago Nunes - i think this will be a solid series if DUCKZA doesn't strike again. tnunes is good and riding a streak, but it also depends on if he can get SNEAKY DOUG to play early (or at all!). SAD!!!
 
m.A.A.d. City Magmortars (7) vs (3) 420 Houndstoners
SV: fish anemometer vs Kenix - I'ma be honest I have no idea who this is but he seems to be a circuit champion so he probably beats kenix
SV: Stories vs sufys - both won and upset my predictions last week but stories win was more impressive
SV: Tuthur vs Axrtix - axtrix has had the tougher opponents going with him
SS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs maki - still my goat
SM: ManOfMany vs Piyu - wasn't impressed with piyu's last week match and manofmany has seemed pretty solid in this tier
ORAS: TheKingKarp vs avarice - one of the last undefeated slots avarice shows no sign of stopping
BW: Drud vs Clementine - upper management decided dawn's win wasn't one sided enough and sent in the big guns
DPP: BeatsBlack vs TONE - whole lotta line up switches but beats has been doing pretty well in this tier so far
ADV: Monai vs Jisoo - again whole lotta line up switches but monai has more experience
Bo3: pdt vs Danny - returning from his 2 week vacation danny has to get back to work

The Gargantuan Golurks (3) vs (7) Malignant Chain Snatchers
SV: Taka vs S1nn0hC0nfirm3d - ho3n has had a gauntlet of opponents and has came out mostly unscathed
SV: Bouff vs Ampha - HL match both have looked really strong and while I do want to believe in the amphoat bouff looked really good last week
SV: Seraphz vs feen - calling the upset while seraphz had an impressive win vs asa I think feen's first win is gonna be a turning point for him
SS: BloodAce vs OranBerryBlissey10 - last time I bolded one of my managers vs obb it didn't go too well
SM: Xiri vs sugar ovens - HL match it's now or never for xiri to lock in and turn things around but I think the oven is unstoppable
ORAS: azogue vs Alice Kazumi - alice got wins and experience in this tier
BW: LpZ vs Tack - Lpz is just too good
DPP: frankjosh vs HSOWA - omg frankjosh :bellipog:
ADV: A plague doc vs plznostep - both beat broth think step has the more impressive record
Bo3: justdrew vs Suzuya - both are 1-3 but suzuya's games have gone closer

SCREAM QUEEN LOORS (4) vs (6) Pokestar Pranksters
SV: kyuss vs Beraldo - I didn't believe in the name change buff last week and got burnt not letting that happen again
SV: Baloor vs Larry - larry has been insane and the true tiger warrior seemed to lose his thunder
SV: lax vs DripLegend - now that drip got a trophy he's unstoppable
SS: Mada vs gum - think gum has seemed more solid overall
SM: robjr vs Sylveon used calm mind - rob finally locked in
ORAS: teddeh vs Kiyo - still a teddeh believer
BW: SergioRules vs triple axel blaze - triple axel got wins and seemed pretty competent in the tier
DPP: Leni vs sleid - both had impressive wins last week but leni had the harder opponent and more games
ADV: Parpar vs Lily - lily has been slaying all challengers that aren't named tycarter
Bo3: zS vs mncmt - mence surprised everyone last week after having trouble finding his footing he managed to pull through and get a dead game

Haunter x Haunter (7) vs (3) Goofy Goober Goodras
SV: MZ vs asa - mz's got a better record and I'm still not a big fan of asa's teams
SV: Floss vs Django - yea floss has had tougher opponents and has won a game
SV: Tenebricite vs ishtar - calling the upset tene goes undefeated
SS: mj vs Meru - mj is back and locked in
SM: PTF vs Estarossa - I forgot this one PTF lost some steam but still having an amazing season
ORAS: tko vs Aberforth - tko's record is better and their loss was to the oras pu main character
BW: Guille vs EviGaro - while guille has the better record evi has had stronger opponents and
DPP: Heysup vs JabbaTheGriffin - assuming heysup doesn't get subbed again he probably takes this
ADV: TyCarter vs Slowbroth - as much as I want to bold ty beating both lily and broth I think broth is going to bounce back hard
Bo3: DugZa vs Thiago Nunes - don't think doug is gonna lock in till playoffs
 
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Code: 
Name    Playoff odds    Tiebreak odds

Haunters       0.99469    3e-05

Snatchers      0.93470    0.00189

Pranksters     0.55782    0.01173

Goodras        0.34931    0.01957

Golurks        0.33243    0.02108

Loors          0.34564    0.01916

Magmortars     0.34530    0.01978

Houndstoners   0.08976    0.00448

the following might not be accurate:
Code: 
Haunters

Tiebreak score(s): {(('w', 4), ('t', 0), ('l', 3), ('diff', 0)), (('w', 4), ('t', 0), ('l', 3), ('diff', 2))}
Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 4, 't': 0, 'l': 3, 'diff': -20}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 4, 't': 1, 'l': 2, 'diff': 4}


Snatchers

Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 3, 't': 1, 'l': 3, 'diff': -22}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 4, 't': 1, 'l': 2, 'diff': 4}


Pranksters

Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 1, 'l': 4, 'diff': -8}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 4, 't': 0, 'l': 3, 'diff': 20}


Goodras

Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 1, 't': 3, 'l': 3, 'diff': -10}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 3, 't': 3, 'l': 1, 'diff': 24}


Golurks

Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 1, 'l': 4, 'diff': -8}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 4, 't': 1, 'l': 2, 'diff': 18}


Loors

Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 1, 'l': 4, 'diff': -8}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 3, 't': 2, 'l': 2, 'diff': 16}


Magmortars

Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 1, 'l': 4, 'diff': -10}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 3, 't': 2, 'l': 2, 'diff': 16}


Houndstoners

Worst record to make playoffs: {'w': 2, 't': 1, 'l': 4, 'diff': -6}
Best record not in playoffs: {'w': 3, 't': 1, 'l': 3, 'diff': 22}
 
Predictions for SM & Bo3 matches:

ManOfMany (record 1-2) vs Piyu (record 1-3):
Piyu pulls off an upset. Despite their worse record, Piyu has shown glimpses of potential and might have learned from their losses. ManOfMany’s recent matches have exposed some predictable patterns, which Piyu could exploit. If Piyu has prepared specifically for these tendencies, they have a good chance to secure a win. If Piyu only shows to play, I see Many bringing it home.

Xiri (record 1-3) vs sugar ovens (record 4-0):
Sugar Ovens undefeated record speaks for itself, and they have consistently demonstrated good gameplay. Sugar ovens has not only been winning but doing so convincingly. If I'm not mistaken, this is Sugar Ovens best run of all time in smogon and for now, having hard time seeing it taking turn over here. They are top-notch right now. Xiri’s 1-3 record highlights their inability to keep up at the moment. Regardless of being unlucky last week, I'm not fan of him transferring his PUBD record to PUPL. Unless Xiri can significantly improve their in game approach, he will continue to struggle. Historically speaking Sugar Ovens has always been achilles heel to Xiri for reason or two. I do rate Xiri to be better player in this matchup, but S-Ovens too hot right now.

robjr (record 2-2) vs Sylveon used calm mind (record 1-3):
Sylveon used calm mind has struggled more consistently compared to Robjr so far. Robjr’s experience alone in SM PU give them an edge in this matchup. Robjr's meta knowledge plays crucial part against unpredictable opponents like Sylveon used calm mind. Assuming no one knows what Sylveon will load up till the game is posted in discord chat.

PTF (record 3-1) vs Estarossa (record 3-1):
While both players have strong records, PTF's latest wins being more impressive give them the slight edge needed in this pairing. Estarossa on other hand is more aggressive to read opponents and make plays that turns tables around. If PTF can find these turns, he should win this game.

pdt (record 1-3) vs Danny (record 3-0):
Danny have been rock solid, and their gameplay reflects a deep understanding of the current metas. pdt is a good player and upset here isn't out of the question. Although pdt will need a significant turnaround to give Danny run for his money. Good and very interesting matchup to follow. Danny takes SV, pdt SS and Danny closes it up in SM.

justdrew (record 1-3) vs Suzuya (record 1-3):
Justdrew has underperformed this season, making whole lot poor ingame choices and failing to adapt during matches so far. Suzuya, while also struggling, has shown more potential for improvement and a better understanding of SV and SM metas. Which are the games I believe Suzuya will win. Drews support should be better, but Suzuya is overall more trustworthy player longterm.

zS (record 3-1) vs mncmt (record 3-0):
While mncmt’s perfect record makes them look very strong, zS isn't too far behind record wise. This match could see zS capitalizing on better meta knowledge through all three metagames. While predicting Mence keeping his X-0 run continuing, an upset wouldn't be too big of a surprise. Another set that I can see going to game three. Mence takes SV, SS and zS wins SM.

DugZa (record 0-3) vs Thiago Nunes (record 3-1):
DugZa’s season has not been what he went after for sure. With no wins so far under his belt, I still don't believe him going X-7. Thiago Nunes, with a strong 3-1 record, is likely to win based off the sheet. DugZa needs to overhaul their approach a big time and if he manages to do it, he pulls an upset here. He is good player and his record doesn't rightfully speak the truth here. To point out, DugZa's early season has been way harder than Thiago Nunes's facing only 3-1 and 3-0 players (zS, Danny, Mence). Tnunes early season includes Justdrew (W), zS (L), pdt (W) and Suzuya (W). DugZa wins in two, SV & SM.
 
Leni said:
zS (record 3-1) vs mncmt (record 3-0):
While mncmt’s perfect record makes them look very strong, zS isn't too far behind record wise. This match could see zS capitalizing on better meta knowledge through all three metagames. While predicting Mence keeping his X-0 run continuing, an upset wouldn't be too big of a surprise. Another set that I can see going to game three. Mence takes SV, SS and zS wins SM.
Click to expand...

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:psycry:
 
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