Hey everyone – despite my best efforts to steer clear of this topic and my two prior Abstain votes, as a council member I believe people are entitled to a public explanation as to my thought process. The post is long. I wrote it anyway.
While I personally do not have a strong preference for the actual outcome of this test, I plan on voting Do Not Ban based on the procedural concerns and the lack of compelling justifications to ban Tera outlined below.
I. Procedural Concerns
Smogon tiering has always been, and should always remain a community-driven enterprise. It can be a deeply frustrating and imperfect process at times, but one of the few constants has always been our collective respect and adherence to the results of community-decided tiering decisions.
Consequently, as someone who is almost always pro-suspect over other processes which undemocratically force certain tiering outcomes (e.g. council slates, kokoloko, quickbans, etc.), this is one of those rare instances where I believe the allowance of a third suspect sets a precedent that is far more harmful in the long-term than any perceived benefits to the current metagame in the short term. It is deeply demotivating to those who which to participate and vote in our suspects if they do not believe their votes carry a level of permanency once a result is achieved. It is also not a far-stretch to say that had Tera been banned after either of the prior two tests, we would not be sitting here today debating its potential return.
I realize these are likely secondary considerations for most players who simply want to have a more enjoyable playing experience, and that retests, while rare, do happen from time to time. But even if you are one who believes that Tera deserves no special treatment or any heightened threshold for removal as SV’s generational mechanic, and if you further place no weight whatsoever on effectively gutting the entire history of tiering thus far, the fact remains that Tera was fairly voted to remain legal in this tier twice. Removing a generational mechanic now, so late into the tier’s development and after two fairly decided suspects, should require an exceedingly high justification to avoid the appearance of outcome-fishing. Unfortunately, I believe the justifications underpinning this third suspect fall well-short of this standard.
II. Tera’s Influence on Gameplay and Skill Expression
Putting aside the procedural concerns noted above, much of the focus by the pro-Ban camp in the earlier tests emphasized how (1) Tera reduces skill-expression and promotes unreasonable guesswork during games. Presently, these arguments appear to be less prevalent now, with most people in the pro-Ban camp instead pointing to (2) Tera’s strain on teambuilding and variance and/or (3) the new developments brought upon the tier by DLC 2 that seemingly justify this third test, and have pushed threat-saturation further into unhealthy territory.
At this juncture, arguments that Tera erodes skill expression and reduces games down to coinflips feel over-exaggerated. Generally speaking, player skill is expressed and measured by the ability to identify your win conditions, your opponent’s win conditions, manage risk based on the information available to you, and then imposing your tools on the opponent with careful positioning. On one hand, yes, it is undeniable that a metagame with Tera legal will likely skew towards rewarding more offensive gameplay and team structures. The nature of the mechanic makes this reality unavoidable. But as far as actually expressing skill in a Tera-legal metagame, the timeliness of an offensive Tera to secure a sweep or a defensive-Tera to avoid what would otherwise be a near-certain loss are themselves evidence of skill expression. I would take it a step further and say that Tera rewards having a greater wealth of metagame knowledge and actual playing experience in determining what Tera type the opponent is likely to have and when they are likely to employ it, rather than a tier which is more “pick up and play” due to having more familiar team structures and known spreads.
If anything, Tera-legal metagames simply create more decisions during games which require players to evaluate risk/reward and manage unknown information. A common counter-argument to this seems to be that Tera creates “50/50” sequences which cause the outcome of certain otherwise-linear interactions to boil down to coinflips, e.g. the Medicham vs Dragonite interaction described above. There will inevitably be some instances of games being decided based on a single flipped-sequence due to Tera, but I simply do not see this happening at-scale in any significant way, even when factoring in that many of the risk/reward interactions forced by Tera do skew towards the offensive player more often than not. You also cannot parse high-level gameplay down into individual sequences like this without considering a myriad of other variables that may not make these interactions truly a 50/50 in practice, e.g. how many sac’s does one player have left, what does team preview look like, would Tera be better-preserved for another pokemon, and so forth. It is a reductionist way of analyzing games that omits critical context, and I do not believe it fairly characterizes the impact Tera alone has on the quality of gameplay.
III. Tera’s Influence on Variance and Threat-Saturation
Moving directly to the present, the premier justification now seems to be that the general state of variance and threat saturation in the tier is too high, and that DLC 2 exacerbated this problem to such a degree that Tera, as the primary culprit, should be banned. While I would reiterate that there is certainly a level of truth to some of these sentiments, I view Tera as an aggravating factor that we can continue to accept in our efforts to reduce variance, rather than the primary culprit of the problem itself.
a. Is Tera Responsible for the Tier's Banlist?
For starters, I wholly disagree that we have banned nearly-thirty Pokemon solely on the basis of Tera. I do not even believe Tera is responsible for a majority of the bans we have seen. Many previously banned Pokemon such as Ogerpon-Hearthflame, Baxcalibur, Terapagos, Ursaluna-Bloodmoon, Annihilape and Walking Wake (among many others) all have a long list of arguably unhealthy qualities that extend far beyond their capacity to abuse Tera to their advantage. Curiously, it is telling that pro-Ban advocates are quick to characterize several of these pokemon as victims of Terastallization pushing them over the edge into banworthy territory, but have not been so vocally eager for them to return should Tera be banned. Putting aside the indisputable cases in Shedinja, Melmetal and Regieleki, you could fairly argue that Kingambit was a noteworthy abuser of Tera alongside the other "fringe" cases like Gholdengo, Zamazenta and Gouging Fire, which all had longer lifespans in the tier and incorporated Tera more heavily into how they functioned. But from my vantage point, a lot of these pokemon were either premier Z-move abusers, had individual sets that were deemed too constricting with or without Tera, or more often than not, they eventually became a product of an unusually-favorable metagame state where their best checks and revenge-killers had just been banned.
But with this in mind, all of these close-cases were voted out of the tier very narrowly (e.g. Pult 66.1%, Kingambit 65.4%, Gholdengo 60.3% by one vote), even with these Pokemon at the peak of their powers in prior metagame states. Others like Darkrai and Zamazenta cleared their original suspects by wide margins, and it was only after subsequent bans took place that their continued presence in the tier became untenable. Many of the suggestions for future suspect candidates that are also prominent Tera abusers such as Dragonite, Iron Crown, Archaludon and Raging Bolt did not score anywhere near a threshold for tiering action either, despite all having strong showings in NDPL.
Again, my goal is not to deny that Tera has impacted the performance and potential banworthiness of many of these pokemon - no one really disagrees that it has. However, I do believe the pro-Ban position takes the argument a bit too far and never really addresses why many of these suspect tests have been razor thin, why the survey results suggest these pokemon may be containable even with Tera, or the possibility that other factors outside of Tera alone have played an equal or perhaps greater role in creating the banlist we currently have.
b. Player Enjoyment and Competitiveness Ratings
If there is any doubt as to the truth of what I am saying re: community perception of Tera and its collateral damage, the OP and others make reference to declining player enjoyment and balance ratings taken from the latest survey as evidence that Tera is undermining the health of the tier, which is certainly troubling.
What is omitted from the OP, however, is the fact that in December 2023 when DLC 2 was released, we noted that: "Average player enjoyment came to around 6.88/10, the highest of any survey so far since the initial survey almost a year ago. This can be largely attributed to the new DLC and the introduction to new, yet not overwhelming, Pokemon that are being used and experimented with." But perhaps you might say that this was too early on to evaluate the true impact of these pokemon. We then re-surveyed the playerbase in April 2024 following the conclusion of world cup, which is undoubtedly one of our biggest tournaments of the year in terms of metagame development and community participation. Player enjoyment remained virtually identical, with competitiveness rising significantly: "The average rating in response to this question was 6.99 which is up notably from an average rating of 6.00 on our last survey back in December. This is really great to see." Fast-forward to June 2024, player enjoyment had risen even higher to 7.17, with 6.96 as the rating for overall competitiveness.
Jumping now to the most recent October 2024 results, we see that player enjoyment and competitiveness ratings have plummeted (while ironically enough, Terastallization ratings actually improved from 7.09 down to 6.78 in terms of support for tiering action). Attributing all of the community's frustration with the state of the tier to Tera alone, and none of the frustration on the resulting impact of recent bans feels a bit disingenuous in light of how people actually voted on the surveys. To be fully transparent, I am fine with disregarding survey results altogether and evaluating Tera solely on its current merits. But if we are going to include survey results in the OP and imply that Tera must be the primary culprit of the playerbase's frustration, I believe it is only fair we do so with some historical context in mind. To the contrary, I believe there have been many points along the timeline of this tier's development where a sizeable percentage of the playerbase felt the metagame was in a far healthier state than it is today, which gives me encouragement and reason to believe we can still change course without resorting to drastic measures such as this.
c. Reducing Variance & Tiering Moving Forward
In light of the above, we are faced with two lingering questions - what is the core problem with the tier, if not solely Tera, and how do we fix it?
My answer would be that we have systematically destabilized the tier by banning too many Pokemon that otherwise provided a necessary level of centralization, and which also naturally kept offensive structures in check. When I say "centralization", I specifically mean that some offensive threats, because of their individual attributes and performance at any given time in the metagame, are naturally prioritized when teambuilding over others. I frame the issue in this way because I believe it captures the essence of the issue we face in the teambuilder at present. How do you choose what offensive threats to prioritize when you have to account for a wide pool of offensive threats, all of whom you could realistically face on the same type of structures, and with each threat having several different set variations within themselves? The current answer is that you generally pick and choose what you win and lose against, and try to maximize odds as best you can against whatever you loaded into. What this leads to is a metagame not unlike what we witnessed in NDPL. Sure, there are many games where team preview is relatively balanced on both sides, and the competitive nature of those games reflect well on the tier. There are also games where Player A brought superior tools to Player B, and had virtually no chance of losing on preview.
This is happening a bit too frequently for anyone's liking, but again, I am not convinced that the sole reason this phenomenon is occurring is due to Tera. To me, Tera just adds another layer of risk and variability on top of what is an already-broken foundation, in a way that I personally feel it does not in a tier like SV OU (or in prior iterations of our own metagame), with very different dynamics and tools available to keep offense contained. To name a few, those metagames have/had better options for speed control, better anti-offense deterrents and were more notably centralized around pokemon that you had to respect in the builder, limiting the universe of likely options you would reasonably expect to face at any given time. Conversely, in our current metagame, the tier is largely centralized around pokemon that are naturally very constricting in the builder and that excel against balance and fatter teams, such as Ogerpon-Wellspring, Raging Bolt, Kyurem, Tapu Lele, etc., and are more reliably out-offensed than defensively answered. Simultaneously, many of our bans within the last year or so have only served to bolster, rather than nerf offense's viability in the tier. Thus far, we have attempted to fix this problem through a domino-effect series of bans after the last two Tera tests. I sense that the playerbase has grown fatigued with this approach and the overall staleness of the metagame, and that this is the real reason this test has come about. My only response would again be that if other tiers and prior iterations of our own tier were able to achieve a greater level of balance and player satisfaction with Tera still in the picture, perhaps the problem lies in the options the tier has to choose from, rather than the mechanic by itself.
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IV. Conclusion
For what it's worth - and on a more human level separate from the Smogon policy jargon - I have full respect for the other council members and anyone else in the playerbase who are simply trying to make the metagame less stale, improve community morale and make National Dex enjoyable. If you believe banning Tera is right then I encourage you to vote according to your conscience. I believe we all share a mutual desire to see the tier do well, and for people to enjoy participating in our tournaments. Personally, banning Tera does not align with my vision for doing so, and I will be voting Do Not Ban.