-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
NOC Low Power Mafia -- Mafia Win
- Thread starter Celever
- Start date
If anyone wants my evidence or why I think that plz ping me
Changed it you are free
I like you as a game player for fun.
But aura thinks you are scum. Do you have your list?
Ok :)
Most likely, will be out for hours, then here briefly. Maybe brief intermittent communications. Then hours more before I get back to reliable access of the forums.
reads i can make if pressured
- pulsar and ck are probably both town. the fact that both are still being pushed at scum for nearly irrelevant day1 stuff after both being viable wagons eod1 means, to me, that there is little mafia incentive to push general thoughts away from those 2
- des is less town-likely the more they act, but are still likely town. maybe im misreading their posting of reads/thoughts unprompted (which, to be clear, im a fan of!) but when the des town case was based on them doing the identical gameplay to previous games, doing smth new to me is notable
- mafia is probably more inactive than active. i haven't read through AP's posting to see if there's anything of value in his d1 stuff to make him targeted, but it's a bonkers target if you want to remove play makers/thread developers. this strikes me as a mafia team who is mostly operating at low intensity right now. it wouldnt surprise me if not even all the members of the mafia are in their discord server (this isnt a skipper callout), or that the kill target was chosen by someone who got townread by AP, offered up the possibility, and got shrugs as a response back.
- there's gotta be at least 1 active mafia member, statistically. i dont know if celever's of the mindset to put weights on the randomization of roles, but statistically w/ the activity balance, you'd expect at least one mafia member to actively be reading the thread and helping develop the narrative.
- pulsar and ck are probably both town. the fact that both are still being pushed at scum for nearly irrelevant day1 stuff after both being viable wagons eod1 means, to me, that there is little mafia incentive to push general thoughts away from those 2
- des is less town-likely the more they act, but are still likely town. maybe im misreading their posting of reads/thoughts unprompted (which, to be clear, im a fan of!) but when the des town case was based on them doing the identical gameplay to previous games, doing smth new to me is notable
- mafia is probably more inactive than active. i haven't read through AP's posting to see if there's anything of value in his d1 stuff to make him targeted, but it's a bonkers target if you want to remove play makers/thread developers. this strikes me as a mafia team who is mostly operating at low intensity right now. it wouldnt surprise me if not even all the members of the mafia are in their discord server (this isnt a skipper callout), or that the kill target was chosen by someone who got townread by AP, offered up the possibility, and got shrugs as a response back.
- there's gotta be at least 1 active mafia member, statistically. i dont know if celever's of the mindset to put weights on the randomization of roles, but statistically w/ the activity balance, you'd expect at least one mafia member to actively be reading the thread and helping develop the narrative.
This was AP’s most definitive reads
actively lurking ftr not a big reason to post atm. I want to hammer hydro when he is ready but im not rushing
idk I have a different reason as to why ap was killed that nobody’s mentioned? but doesn’t seem to be instrumental to discuss
if CK is scum he’s exactly so with IN voters ftr - since we moved from one stagnant wagon to another. there’s kinds of other groups i see being vaguely partnery (one of my theories was skipper + realiti which is why I voted skipper because i can’t really understand how he was so brazen about that read) but no flip means not really enough to act
agree that mafia is probably more likely inactive, i feel like there’s max 1 in m2h/bluedoom/duskfall IMO. i would add realiti since he’s kind of next on the “familiarity + competence level thing” but outside of seeing things i agree with i actually don’t have an excuse to tr him as much as the rest, and still would probably wanna chop through like…. dbd ne flanders slot? then maybe skipper? I think if that’s all pure game is a wash anyway
i actualy kinda tr ag/ck now off that eod who id otherwise include in that last grouping, but again, if that’s literally all pure idt we have any other choice. pulsar slot/alice/jalmont come to mind as alternatives to the above grouping (giving pulsar a pass for rage slotting) but not actively as interested in building wagons on
idk I have a different reason as to why ap was killed that nobody’s mentioned? but doesn’t seem to be instrumental to discuss
if CK is scum he’s exactly so with IN voters ftr - since we moved from one stagnant wagon to another. there’s kinds of other groups i see being vaguely partnery (one of my theories was skipper + realiti which is why I voted skipper because i can’t really understand how he was so brazen about that read) but no flip means not really enough to act
agree that mafia is probably more likely inactive, i feel like there’s max 1 in m2h/bluedoom/duskfall IMO. i would add realiti since he’s kind of next on the “familiarity + competence level thing” but outside of seeing things i agree with i actually don’t have an excuse to tr him as much as the rest, and still would probably wanna chop through like…. dbd ne flanders slot? then maybe skipper? I think if that’s all pure game is a wash anyway
i actualy kinda tr ag/ck now off that eod who id otherwise include in that last grouping, but again, if that’s literally all pure idt we have any other choice. pulsar slot/alice/jalmont come to mind as alternatives to the above grouping (giving pulsar a pass for rage slotting) but not actively as interested in building wagons on
by sheepable I mean you followed me onto the CK vote
I know it's not just you that thinks I'm scum, I'm just wondering why your opinion of me declined
this might be the first time ive seen you comment about envisioning player behavior wrt alignment in like, years
do you have anything worth sharing about anyone else here
Dbd my opinion of you declined bc of some posts that didn't make sense to me
I agree