NOC Low Power Mafia -- Mafia Win

in Galactic he was fairly active D1 but then died, this inactivity makes me more towny on him esp since he wasn't towned very much
 
I think this has 3 town (myself, NE and DBD) but flandrs could def flip
lowkey this makes me want to vote CK just to test this theory out (ig the NE vote would work too).

Ig I should make a #readslist

Townlean:

Nuxl and a fairy: both these slots feel very towny right now. I think they both seem to be assuming the town guiders but not town leaders. However, neither seem to have a definite view on anything other than voting out Neon d1, who was a town PR so…

Duskfall98: Ok so I highly, highly doubt scum!Tommy would allow his teammates to be quiet if he wasn’t trying to control the thread. So unless someone like a fairy or Nuxl is mafia thread leader with him in scumchat, I think he’s town. Even then, he would try to contribute to the mafia manipulation.

des121: yeah so the Bunyip situation pretty much confirms this slot

Ehmcee: similar to above also neither of them (pulsar/Ehmcee) have acted out of character from their townmeta.

realiti: I feel that realiti’s two metas are pretty distinctive, and this is solidly in their townmeta. I feel like scum!realiti is pretty assertive in the few times they are in thread. But in this game I feel like even though they pop in and out, they are productive and pushing convos rather than agendas.

JALMONT: I think his d1 posting is outrageous enough to place him in townlean

Small Townlean:

Flandrs: this is solely on d1, I thought his posting matched his character, but now he’s completely absent so I doubt he would be scum now?

Null: DBD (initially scum but posting has been better but connected to my scumleans), bluedoom, Alice Kazumi, Lechen, thechickening

Scumlean:

M2H: At first I was pretty #omgus on their slot; however, their posting didn’t get worse but didn’t get better. I still feel like they are moreso agenda posting than solve posting. But this is my smallest scumreads.

Aura Guardian: ok so his popins felt really scummy and I think some of his reads feel questionable.

CK: The main reason my scumlean has solidified is their unvote off HyHy to “produce more discussion” (in scumchat). And then put his vote back on during a dead thread. I feel like this was protection in case smogon town actually tried to study votecount and see oh wait CK is town he voted HyHy when in reality he was trying to maybe turn the tide against the wagon on HyHy.

NE: I don’t like his posting. Also, CK has repeatedly townread him, AG has popped in with him. I feel like his scum relations are really strong.
 
CrreamyKitty: Last game ck was uninformed mafia. While not exactly the same as informed mafia or uninformed town I feel like he has been different this game. Reaction to being pushed looks like he cares less than last game about dying, also he looks more comfortable in thread during d1 than last game. This last thing could be because of being new to the community but I'll take it into consideration when making future reads on him. So far I'm undecided with this slot.

Duskfall98: His posting seems fine so far, no aggressive mafia plays like Jalmont's game. Sadly I don't know how to interpret his lack of priority for the game. Not within my vote pool but definitely below than the townleans I posted last time.

StupidFlandrs48: You are busy but If you are town please step up in the following days, looks like you are going to be mislynched soon. If you are mafia then you can stay afk :blobthumbsup:.

TheChickening: At times it feels like they are being forced to play more than playing willingly? Can't decide if they are a really busy townie or they are mafia. A fairly decent vote right now.
 
I'm a little concerned that the holdover on CK has very little to do with anything that's happened in the interim since day 1 and has more to do with flimsy logic given during day 1 which frankly I don't find convincing at all.

do you really think a vote on the guy who hasn't posted in almost a week is the best path forward right now?
I'm here for a while now, will look on-and-off between some other things. Chiming in to agree that voting inactives has historically been sub-optimal, IIRC.
 
1731282878255.png


Realiti-M2H progression tracking
 
I'm a little concerned that the holdover on CK has very little to do with anything that's happened in the interim since day 1 and has more to do with flimsy logic given during day 1 which frankly I don't find convincing at all.

do you really think a vote on the guy who hasn't posted in almost a week is the best path forward right now?

##Vote: StupidFlanders48

just attempting some wagon building. no point tossing a third vote on nightemerald when i can switch it later
 
1731282878255.png


Realiti-M2H progression tracking
Im not really going to discuss skipper because i thinky they're bad+cringe+L
We start with realiti thinking skipper is town, claiming m2h's read isn't strong enough "said a whole lot of nothing"

m2h considered skippers opening wolfy, i dont know exact reason, but im going to say that its because its posting just to post ("mobile sucks" exchange a bit before the linked m2h post).

pro (for realiti ftr): theyre not wrong about the m2h post being lukewarm
con: the skipper read has no buildup or logic, and leans more like shading m2h than sling them genuinely

There isn't an exact counterpart on m2h's end, the main thing that developed for them is posting uncertainty on pulsar, and asking others dont talk about them, maybe for some kind of reaction test idk

they agree on the pulsar thing, but realiti continues to push the 'not great posting angle'

pro/con same as above
Oh NVM then.
I think this very obviously unpairs the two, to start with
I also think M2H is definitely townier here specifically for the t!neon angle being consistently pushed (though ive made more detailed thoughts on that earlier, tldr being i dont like how it was used to push people without much explanation on why the replacement is a better vote than neon)
I don;t get why realiti has this attitude toward m2h, like id be going "ugh i guess you were right" and all that, but the way realiti goes about it feels like they forgot they ever had an sr on m2h to begin with, like the niceness feels artificial. maybe im just a terrible human being to interact socially with

pro:i guess its at least a reason to change perspective on m2h
con: holy fuck its like a switch was flipped

m2h isnt on this readslist despite it being like 40% of where their effort has been this game
and then this never got followup

in hindsight this was way too much effort for a read based on two exchanges but in my defense i literally hallucinated m2h in realitis townleans in the readslist and i have no idea how the fuck that happened

##Vote: realiti

in case i havent done it alr
 
a fairy: Null / Scumlean.
Progression/Level of Analysis:

Tbh level of analysis is kind of level 1 here. I also note several simple logical inconsistencies across a fairy's body of work in the thread. Overall thete isn't too much to say here in that a fairy's style here is not difficult to fake and relies on common tells that are used in mafia and even then a fairy is not applying those super consistenly.

Tone:
Tone honestly seems somewhat null here -- I may have given a fairy too much credit here.

Interactions:
#23: Slight callout of Sherlock -- they are never logging in again, are they?
#65: Lechen defends a fairy from DbD's vote -- this is a joke right?
#92, #94: Weird commentary on Tommy's meta -- someone will eventually tunnel vision them.
#217: Skipper notes that a fairy scum reads their entrance a lot.
#289, 294: Responds to M2H saying the Skipper entrance will not matter later on in the game, but other things (e.g., Tommy/Nuxl pocketing, jalmont no vote discussions, and CK stuff). Not valid to scum read them off entrance.
#291: Calls out Sherlock again -- who absolutely is not logging in again.
#317: Realiti: null reads a fairy.
#322: Nuxl: a fairy at null-town line.
#376: DbD: a fairy could go either way.
#428, #447: Tommy/a fairy miscommunicated about a clearing interaction with HydrogenHydreigon?
#450:
Have we had a scum Des game yet?
#464: Says Des calling themselves town does not indicate they are town.
#693, 695: Most inclined to vote Pulsar here. You're not even scummy, not thread presence.
#772: Trusts Tommy, HyHy and AG (DbD voters) more than Des, DbD, Skipper, and Pulsar (CK voters)
#785: Not against a Neon vote.
#814: Won't vote CK today, not seeing the justification.
#831: Prefers Neon and DbD as vote options. Not CK or Skipper.
#911: Votes Neon
#1045: Did Lechen really not vote?
#1207: Bluedoom scum leans a fairy.
#1223: CK POE's a fairy.
#1233: Des scum reads a fairy.
#1279: Des switched a fairy to town.
#1289: Pulsar, CK town. Scum are mostly inactive. At least one active scum member.
#1329, 1333, 1335: I don't think scumreading pulsar was fair on d1
#1338: CK townleans a fairy.
#1343, #1345: Asks Ehmcee if he is scum. Believes him when he says no?
#1373: Skipper town leans a fairy.
#1443: Jalmont v M2H reads tvt.
#1591: Flandrs has time to grow in activity, I'm not worried yet.
#1594: Bluedoom came off worse than Lechen.
#1659: Conditional Ehmcee Vanilla.
#1727: AG expressing hypotheticals is within average character.
#1754: Skipper town core reads a fairy/Nuxl?

Pairings/Unpairings:
Lechen/Bluedoom: Potential partner EQ with Lechen but not Bluedoom imo but could easily see the opposite (?). #1207, #1594 seems to be guided by OMGUS in a way. Lechen has been much friendlier to a fairy's slot than Bluedoom (#65). I was actually flirting with unpairing Lechen / a fairy for #65 so could easily see a fairy / Bluedoom as distancing esp since a Bluedoom vote was not really ever on the table. Off the top of my head I remember a fairy joking about voting Bluedoom at some point in d1 as well.
Des: Unpaired for Des being willing to switch the SR to a TR just by a fairy asking for it (#1279).
Tommy: Unpaired for the thread miscommunication bit-- reads uncoorinated (#428, #447). Bit on Tommy's meta also seems unaligned (#92, #94).
Sherlock/Alice: Gonna say unpaired for the multiple posts singling him out.
Skipper/CK: Both seem slightly aligned with a fairy. CK in particular shifted a fairy from a POE read to a town lean with little progression (#1223, #1338). Skipper seems like an odd one in that a fairy specifically mentioned DbD, Skipper, Pulsar, and Des as a group of people she did not trust d1 (#772) but she has been very chummy with Pulsar/Ehmcee, Skipper, and Des throughout d2.
Pulsar/Ehmcee: Flirted with the vote d1 but later said M2H scumreading her was unfair (#1329, #1333, #1335). Also had her in a pool of untrustworthies d1 (#772). Interaction with Ehmcee d2 is also strange but maybe too bold to be paired (#1343, #1345)
Flandrs: Possible pairing due to the dissonance between #1591 and #1289.
 
a fairy I want to focus on post #772. Would you say that that pool of players is a pool that you currently trust or not trust? If you trust them now, would you say that affects your read on CK at all?
 
May not actually do the whole thread. That one took me almost a whole hour. Do think we may be letting a fairy skate by a bit too easy here tbh. Probably not mafia though. Would maybe do one or two more of these if there are anybody in particular people are interested in.
 
nothing before 772 honestly represents anything resembling what i think now.

however, when it comes to joining a wagon, i for sure trust tommy+hh+ag over dbd+skip+des+pulsar(pre-subout) and the fact that is being questioned at all is shocking. literally just think it over yourself. the most townie person on that second list is des who i do not trust to develop her own reads currently. tommy hh and ag are strong players and good at developing reads

also w.r.t. sherlock and calling out the signup-into-inactive - this is a huge habit of mine, see psy and etay in previous games.
 
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