NOC Low Power Mafia -- Mafia Win

[apricity]

all right i'm kind of certain i want us to fullclaim, can we do it

 

[a fairy]

ehhhhhhhh

 

[apricity]

i think the math works out we might be able to just win here

 

[a fairy]

id love to see the math

 

[CrreamyKitty]

all right i'm kind of certain i want us to fullclaim, can we do it

Still think PRs should only claim if they’re gonna be voted

What do we gain from massclaim here?

 

[a fairy]

i have m2h ptsd from fullclaim stuff

 

[CrreamyKitty]

Like the math still works out the same but it’s even better because PRs don’t get stabbed

 

[a fairy]

Still think PRs should only claim if they’re gonna be voted

What do we gain from massclaim here?

the idea is that we lock in the PRs, and then of the VTs we can POE over time

 

[a fairy]

does it work if we request PR-nonPR claim? it works less since we dont get a 50:50 ig

 

[Nuxl]

if we mass claim skipper goes first before anyone

Idk what to think about it yet without clearing enough people but it’s prob possible if we get a flip real soon

 

[a fairy]

god i hate fullclaims

 

[CrreamyKitty]

The only tine PRs should claim prematurely is in a situation where next day is VOLO/MYLO

 

[a fairy]

i really don't think cel makes a game where a fullclaim breaks it. surely maf student or vanillaizer disincentivizes it

 

[apricity]

15 alive, 4 scum
if no counterclaims:

3 town PRs
12 claim VT
of which 8 are town and 4 are scum

we have i believe 3 mislynches left and bunyip will be able to clear 2

so it's not guaranteed but it's pretty damn close (of 8 town, 3 can be ML'd, 2 can be cleared, so only need 3 obvtowns in it)

plus we have wagonomics

 

[CrreamyKitty]

the idea is that we lock in the PRs, and then of the VTs we can POE over time

If the PRs aren’t being voted why should they conf themselves

 

[a fairy]

If the PRs aren’t being voted why should they conf themselves

the idea is that a fullclaim is that everyone claims

 

[apricity]

15 alive, 4 scum
if no counterclaims:

3 town PRs
12 claim VT
of which 8 are town and 4 are scum

we have i believe 3 mislynches left and bunyip will be able to clear 2

so it's not guaranteed but it's pretty damn close (of 8 town, 3 can be ML'd, 2 can be cleared, so only need 3 obvtowns in it)

plus we have wagonomics

plus we have a gun

 

[a fairy]

doesnt vanillaizer vanilla the bunyip

 

[CrreamyKitty]

doesnt vanillaizer vanilla the bunyip

Mhm

 

[CrreamyKitty]

Arguably that is +EV for town, for reasons I should not share

 

[Nuxl]

in this setup i think massing is only rly worthwhile if all remaining prs r in the poe or close to it

Kinda like how imaginaryneon was Lol

 

[CrreamyKitty]

If PRs are going to be shot or voted they should claim for obv reasons, but if they’re in POE but not actively under vote pressure I don’t understand the utility in claiming

 

[a fairy]

If PRs are going to be shot or voted they should claim for obv reasons, but if they’re in POE but not actively under vote pressure I don’t understand the utility in claiming

the utility in claiming would be to establish a mathematical path to a guaranteed win for town, but i dont think it works w/ vanillizer

 

[apricity]

why does it not work with vanillizer?

 

[CrreamyKitty]

the utility in claiming would be to establish a mathematical path to a guaranteed win for town, but i dont think it works w/ vanillizer

PRs being vannilaized is even better because it takes them off vig list and lets a POE nilla town prove themselves