FEDS VS SMUGGLERS - GAME OVER, FED VICTORY

let's just do this for like three rounds then?

batMAN said:
camryn has to put it bluntly been a non-factor this game, we can find a better person to bounce ideas off of - from this PL, I think CK / bluedoom are at a level where they wouldn't be great at coordinating votes as well as being alright to pop in and bounce ideas off of as you mentioned
Click to expand...
i changed to fairy
 
thoughts:

down to vote af/camryn even though i post barely more than camryn

i think ck is a better vote than bd i like a ck vote actually

ill trust that yall who played with des are right and ya if thats the case it does seems like hes fed although i feel that its not pressing to vote em rn


re: hals plan

we did sign up to play a social game although with hals plan my involvement in this game would only marginally decrease so lol
 
shadowpea said:
thoughts:

down to vote af/camryn even though i post barely more than camryn

i think ck is a better vote than bd i like a ck vote actually

ill trust that yall who played with des are right and ya if thats the case it does seems like hes fed although i feel that its not pressing to vote em rn


re: hals plan

we did sign up to play a social game although with hals plan my involvement in this game would only marginally decrease so lol
Click to expand...
sry des for screwing up pronouns lol
 
apricity said:
TL;DR: Game is broken, the only way smugglers lose is if we allow the feds to coordinate, and if everyone stops posting, the only way they can coordinate is by outing themselves (in which case I have a second plan as well)

To build some credibility, I'll walk you through the exact kind of logic I used but will leave the code out to make it harder for scum to replicate (although tbh this took wayyyyy less time than I thought it would)

-14 players in game, 10 smugglers, 4 fed. WLOG player 0 is the person who started with the goods, player 1 is the person who has it now.
-To simplify matters, ties at the end of cycle 10 end in a fed win (everything is super smuggler sided anyway)
-rules were pretty easy to implement.

I am writing this with the thought in mind that feds will read this as well.

We have three main questions:
Question 1: Are smugglers favored to win if everyone acts completely randomly and cease communication
Question 2: Is acting non-randomly and based on reads better than acting randomly
Question 3: How robust is a smuggler win to scum strategies

Question 1: Are smugglers favored to win if everyone acts completely randomly and cease communication
1: Yes --
If the feds cannot coordinate and pick at random, from this current position, smugglers win roughly 94% of the time
Smuggler wins: 9380
Fed wins: 620

Question 2: Is acting non-randomly and based on reads better than acting randomly
2. SURPRISINGLY, YES

Essentially I create a rank ordered list of the players in the game, with 1 being the most townread and 14 being the least. We can imagine that on this list, four positions are occupied by smugglers. If our reads are perfect, then this is positions 11-14.

We can assign everyone probabilities of being handed the goods. A conservative and smuggler-friendly way to approach this is to let the top person get 14/105 chance of being handed the goods on any given night, 13/105, and so on. This is actually much flatter than we expect the actual numbers to look -- in reality we'd be looking at a 20% of getting the goods when you're townread. The flatter this distribution is, the more "friendly" this simulation is to acting on reads.

If we have perfect reads, then this is actually slightly WORSE than everyone picking randomly. The reason why this is worse is because it is now more likely that scum actually get two people to inspect the same person. The accuracy exponentially deteriorates the worse our readslist gets.

Question 3: How robust is a smuggler win to scum strategies
This is where I won't be sharing all of my results -- not because there is even a single winning scum strategy, but because there are some that push the game closer to even.

To give an example of this, suppose scum instead of doing 4 random picks with >2 getting inspections, gets 1 inspect per round. In that case our best strategy is to STILL act randomly. This gives us a 80% chance of winning
Smuggler wins: 7957
Fed wins: 2043

Realistically this is probably where I expect our advantage to be, and for me I think that's good enough.

Why is it so important for us to stop posting?
Because the win equity and the essence of this game boils down to whether or not scum can get on the same page consistently. There's lots of ways they can do this by posting, since they know the previous inspects from each night. However, if NOBODY POSTS, AT ALL, then there is NO MEDIUM BY WHICH THEY CAN COMMUNICATE EVEN CODED MESSAGES.

The only people who CAN post are CLEARED TOWNIES because we know they are not sending coded messages!

Why is it so important that we act randomly -- can i please give fruit to my townreads?
No! If you are more likely to give fruit to townreads, or less likely to give fruit to cleared/revealed players, and scum know this, then that /hurts/ our winning chances because everyone has a decent idea of where townreads are.

The best thing to do is to act totally randomly so to dodge the scum inspect.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
I would like feedback on this plan of action today, I don't think allowing scum to coordinate one day is too hurtful.

Starting next day, no posts in thread by anyone other than cleared townies (myself, cel, + possibly whoever we vote today)

IF TOWNIES AGREE TO NOT POST, THEN SCUM CANNOT POST, THEY CANNOT COORDINATE, WE WILL WIN THE GAME at /LEAST/ 80% of the time.

I have some plans for when scum decide to out themselves and more simulations to back that up.

For today, my criteria for voting is someone who will not be able to lead and coordinate scum if they are outed and who might be a good person to bounce ideas off of if they are town: this user is VOTE CAMRYN
Click to expand...
Perfect let’s stick with a fairy she’s said herself she can’t coordinate
 
apricity said:
TL;DR: Game is broken
Click to expand...
An update to Circus Maximus has been released. The update will be applied automatically when you restart Circus Maximus. The major changes include:
  • Updated noc_smuggle
    • General
      • Updated the game to not be broken (thanks a fairy)
      • Players can no longer hide from the thread by using a mathematics degree.
      • Fixed a rare crash caused by using the Pomson 5000 at the bottom of the ball pit.
      • Improved performance
      • Fixed a rare bug where I couldn't be bothered to sheet this game due to sheer apathy.
      • Made the setup actually good
    • General
      • The Carrier once again has mini-crits, because for some godforsaken reason they changed it to full crits, which means that you basically can't approach the Carrier at all and also makes some weapons direct downgrades when you're the Carrier.
      • The Third Degree now does increased damage to the Carrier and any Medics attached, because fuck you.
 
ImaginaryNeon said:
An update to Circus Maximus has been released. The update will be applied automatically when you restart Circus Maximus. The major changes include:
  • Updated noc_smuggle
    • General
      • Updated the game to not be broken (thanks a fairy)
      • Players can no longer hide from the thread by using a mathematics degree.
      • Fixed a rare crash caused by using the Pomson 5000 at the bottom of the ball pit.
      • Improved performance
      • Fixed a rare bug where I couldn't be bothered to sheet this game due to sheer apathy.
      • Made the setup actually good
    • General
      • The Carrier once again has mini-crits, because for some godforsaken reason they changed it to full crits, which means that you basically can't approach the Carrier at all and also makes some weapons direct downgrades when you're the Carrier.
      • The Third Degree now does increased damage to the Carrier and any Medics attached, because fuck you.
Click to expand...
Fuck it got rid of the part where I changed it to cp_carrier.
 
apricity said:
TL;DR: Game is broken, the only way smugglers lose is if we allow the feds to coordinate, and if everyone stops posting, the only way they can coordinate is by outing themselves (in which case I have a second plan as well)

To build some credibility, I'll walk you through the exact kind of logic I used but will leave the code out to make it harder for scum to replicate (although tbh this took wayyyyy less time than I thought it would)

-14 players in game, 10 smugglers, 4 fed. WLOG player 0 is the person who started with the goods, player 1 is the person who has it now.
-To simplify matters, ties at the end of cycle 10 end in a fed win (everything is super smuggler sided anyway)
-rules were pretty easy to implement.

I am writing this with the thought in mind that feds will read this as well.

We have three main questions:
Question 1: Are smugglers favored to win if everyone acts completely randomly and cease communication
Question 2: Is acting non-randomly and based on reads better than acting randomly
Question 3: How robust is a smuggler win to scum strategies

Question 1: Are smugglers favored to win if everyone acts completely randomly and cease communication
1: Yes --
If the feds cannot coordinate and pick at random, from this current position, smugglers win roughly 94% of the time
Smuggler wins: 9380
Fed wins: 620

Question 2: Is acting non-randomly and based on reads better than acting randomly
2. SURPRISINGLY, YES

Essentially I create a rank ordered list of the players in the game, with 1 being the most townread and 14 being the least. We can imagine that on this list, four positions are occupied by smugglers. If our reads are perfect, then this is positions 11-14.

We can assign everyone probabilities of being handed the goods. A conservative and smuggler-friendly way to approach this is to let the top person get 14/105 chance of being handed the goods on any given night, 13/105, and so on. This is actually much flatter than we expect the actual numbers to look -- in reality we'd be looking at a 20% of getting the goods when you're townread. The flatter this distribution is, the more "friendly" this simulation is to acting on reads.

If we have perfect reads, then this is actually slightly WORSE than everyone picking randomly. The reason why this is worse is because it is now more likely that scum actually get two people to inspect the same person. The accuracy exponentially deteriorates the worse our readslist gets.

Question 3: How robust is a smuggler win to scum strategies
This is where I won't be sharing all of my results -- not because there is even a single winning scum strategy, but because there are some that push the game closer to even.

To give an example of this, suppose scum instead of doing 4 random picks with >2 getting inspections, gets 1 inspect per round. In that case our best strategy is to STILL act randomly. This gives us a 80% chance of winning
Smuggler wins: 7957
Fed wins: 2043

Realistically this is probably where I expect our advantage to be, and for me I think that's good enough.

Why is it so important for us to stop posting?
Because the win equity and the essence of this game boils down to whether or not scum can get on the same page consistently. There's lots of ways they can do this by posting, since they know the previous inspects from each night. However, if NOBODY POSTS, AT ALL, then there is NO MEDIUM BY WHICH THEY CAN COMMUNICATE EVEN CODED MESSAGES.

The only people who CAN post are CLEARED TOWNIES because we know they are not sending coded messages!

Why is it so important that we act randomly -- can i please give fruit to my townreads?
No! If you are more likely to give fruit to townreads, or less likely to give fruit to cleared/revealed players, and scum know this, then that /hurts/ our winning chances because everyone has a decent idea of where townreads are.

The best thing to do is to act totally randomly so to dodge the scum inspect.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
I would like feedback on this plan of action today, I don't think allowing scum to coordinate one day is too hurtful.

Starting next day, no posts in thread by anyone other than cleared townies (myself, cel, + possibly whoever we vote today)

IF TOWNIES AGREE TO NOT POST, THEN SCUM CANNOT POST, THEY CANNOT COORDINATE, WE WILL WIN THE GAME at /LEAST/ 80% of the time.

I have some plans for when scum decide to out themselves and more simulations to back that up.

For today, my criteria for voting is someone who will not be able to lead and coordinate scum if they are outed and who might be a good person to bounce ideas off of if they are town: this user is VOTE CAMRYN
Click to expand...
vote camryn
 
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