Ehhh but 1:4 IS the highest probability by your math, or at least even with 2:3. What about Des's tone sounds good to you?
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NOC Secret Hitler Mafia - Game Thread [FASCISTS WIN]
- Thread starter Dead by Daylight
- Start date
Well Blazade is probably town I guess. I like that he's making plays at least but I certainly don't see why he thinks Im mechanically above rand for maf.
And in case anyone asked why I slightly sussed on fairy, it was for saying "1 liberal policies"
Harmless grammar error or freudian slip? Time will tell
And in case anyone asked why I slightly sussed on fairy, it was for saying "1 liberal policies"
Harmless grammar error or freudian slip? Time will tell
Dead by Daylight update the op plz <3
We are at 2-2 so I don't see any ptoblem with current trajectory.
OP has been updated with the policies passed. Another reminder to not talk in thread after deadline.
Night 2 has ended. This post marks the start of Day 3, phase 1.
Another peaceful night of sleep! You go to the streets as if nothing happened.
Your new President is CrreamyKitty. Please select a chancellor as soon as possible. You will be sent policies ASAP.
In roughly 23 hours, phase 2 will begin (9 PM GMT-5 on
Another peaceful night of sleep! You go to the streets as if nothing happened.
Your new President is CrreamyKitty. Please select a chancellor as soon as possible. You will be sent policies ASAP.
In roughly 23 hours, phase 2 will begin (9 PM GMT-5 on
In what sense? I edited in the policies that were passed into the EoD2 post as well as into the OP. Is there something else?
oh i didnt see the eod2 edit but on my screen the op still doesnt have an eod2 update but maybe that's a me thing
At this point I've explained the math enough times that getting into it more would be distracting. This is my job, and if I'm doing math, I am going to do it properly as either alignment. You and fairy are both mechanically above rand (as if there were one fewer town to rand in the pool). And when CK tells me what policies he got I will tell you what his chances are.
The hard math now is going to be endgame math: how likely it is for hitler to be elected if we keep twiddling our thumbs.
Des was just asking questions and making comments in a way that seemed legitimate, and not a performance. I admittedly have no idea what des's scumgame could possibly look like. But looking for markers of legitimacy and interest is going to be better than looking for associations in a game where the mafia don't know each other.
Aren't there named townies? I think in a situation where someone claims and is not CCd its impossible to accidentally elect Hitler.
Alright I may go and stare at your previous posts just to sate my own curiousity. Does part of that presume a scenario where Des is mafia and acted against town explicitly?
Do you think Des has a higher than random?
No none of it presumes Des's alignment in any way. Because des confirmed what you sent them, their alignment and actions as chancellor do not matter. Why would they? Are you saying that you lied about what you sent?
All the math is doing is figuring out the likely causes of a specific output. Say you had a detector that tells you if the Sun had exploded, and it lights up 100% of the time that the Sun explodes, but it also lights up randomly 1% of the time on any given day. The math I did would concretely tell you, if you're looking at a detector with a light on, what the chance that light is on randomly vs an accurate prediction that the Sun explodes.
You're right. Because the named townies even have relatively useless roles (what the heck is the guy who checks the result of the public vote for chancellor even supposed to do?), as long as they don't die early we can avoid that. You need to get very unlucky with Fascist bonus kills and then also probably lose a coin toss somewhere as the remaining mafia pick their battles claiming.
Mathematically des is at normal to be town, but I had a slight tone read which I'm admittedly pulling teeth for when there isn't a lot of activity in this game.
I also currently townread chickening for the vote and engagement near the end of day. Fairy is decaying a bit in my eyes and I expected more engagement. You, AP, are interesting because I read interest and engagement but also defensiveness and a drive for survival which I feel would be more common in mafia.
I also currently townread chickening for the vote and engagement near the end of day. Fairy is decaying a bit in my eyes and I expected more engagement. You, AP, are interesting because I read interest and engagement but also defensiveness and a drive for survival which I feel would be more common in mafia.
This is a good idea
So we just get the townies to claim?
Well if u have a role
Sorry one thing I was confused about, does the anarchist's faction recruit once a day or once overall? I thought it was once a day from the rules but I couldve been mistaken.
ebwop, meant to say "once overall from the rules"
Alright Ill just drop it, I clearly don't understand the math then and that is on me.
I figured you were factoring in the probability of there being 3 or 4 liberal legislation on Day 1 and that Des and I had both actively worked against town.
I think it technically is possible that Des and I both actively acted against town from an outside perspective thougj I know that to not be the case.