NOC E.G.O Wielders Mafia - A 17P Role Madness (Game Thread) - MAFIA WIN

AngryPidgeon said:
Really? Like you dont have an ounce of regret for mislynching the Town Tracker? I'll say Celever's self vote sucked and Im not going to say Celever was super duper townie. If you are town I do hope you aren't going to take the "well it is what it is" attitude and you make an effort to understand where you went wrong with this one.
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When postgame comes, and I learn people's alignments, I will be re-reading the thread to see what I should have picked up on. As I always do.

AngryPidgeon said:
How much experience playing NOCs do you have? I assume a lot but I dont know you that well since you were like a single post in Small Street and I think I was dead early in Celever's game possibly before you even subbed in. Do you typically play in high power games, role madness, or what?
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From my perspective, you only just got here.

AngryPidgeon said:
I'll admit that Celever's selfvote sucked a lot and frankly people should never* be doing that as any alignment. I could see some people considering a selfvote to be a scummy move, but you just handwaved his vote by saying you wouldn't bite or something. Im real tired of cowboys thinking they are gonna get the strong town player with a big claimed role voted off because "surely THIS time for sure Ive caught a mafia making a bold lie on D1!!". There is no real situation where Celever should be voted off with that claim, even if he were some random.
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apricity

NOC Post in thread 'E.G.O Wielders Mafia - A 17P Role Madness (Game Thread) - MAFIA WIN'

AngryPidgeon said:
Also just gonna get some of this out of my system but Ill save rant for post game:

STOP VOTING FOR UN-CCd INFO ROLES ON D1.

There is no universe where a good role like a tracker should be voted off when it is either going to force a block on it or an NK. Its just bad strategy. Like yes it could be a fakeclaim or even a real maf role but just WHY. Stop!
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I'm so happy to see this insight and the level of urgency of the tutorial from you!

Can I ask where this insight and urgency was at EOD?

Let me refresh your fucking memory with all of your posts starting from an hour before deadline.
 
apricity said:
It's night 1 and scum is at full power in a 17 player game. What do you think the odds are that a pubclaimed town tracker is allowed to get good enough results to prove their alignment?
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It doesn't matter, then they have to park a roleblocker on him (if they have one which I'll concede LIKELY). But then maybe I wouldnt have been blocked last night and they would have had to park it on Cele instead. Its basic town strategy to not vote off good info roles on Day 1. Like -yes- we may end up circling back and voting off Cele eventually if he keeps repeatedly claiming to be blocked OR maybe we actually do vote off the blocker instead and the problem is solved.

Did you think he was a Mafia Tracker? Or did you think he was totally making that role up?

apricity said:
I think you are wrong when you say that Cel having ch3mdah in a weird place on a readslist makes ch3mdah a more attractive vote than if ch3mdah was in a more normal place on Cel's readslist. It's the logic there that doesn't track.
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IDK some people will read whatever they want into """scum""" read lists. I say scum in quotes in this cae because M@H's entire post was about how Chemdah made sense as scum with Celever because Cele had slipped him somehow via carefully placing his name into a specific location in the reads which is not the sort of spec I like to engage in. I think its the absolute pinnacle of WIFOM because scum are paying attention to where they put buddies in readslists and also trying to find an associative based on "player X's name position in player Y's post" like that on an unflipped player is schizopsting.

apricity said:
2. There are a billion unknowable reasons for why scum choose who to kill each night.
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Im gonna go with false on this one. Id say there are like 5 reasons that go into a kill
1) PRs / hunting PRs
2) Killing people who are townread
3) Killing people who have good reads
4) Killing "known good" players

I didnt even get to 5 and Ive already covered like 95% of why NKS happen.
 
AngryPidgeon said:
It doesn't matter, then they have to park a roleblocker on him (if they have one which I'll concede LIKELY). But then maybe I wouldnt have been blocked last night and they would have had to park it on Cele instead. Its basic town strategy to not vote off good info roles on Day 1. Like -yes- we may end up circling back and voting off Cele eventually if he keeps repeatedly claiming to be blocked OR maybe we actually do vote off the blocker instead and the problem is solved.

Did you think he was a Mafia Tracker? Or did you think he was totally making that role up?
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I think every time you mention "basic town strategy" and "smogtown lul" I'm just going to keep reposting the same thing which is "Why is your opinion on this so strong now and not in the T W E L V E posts you made in the hour before deadline"


AngryPidgeon said:
IDK some people will read whatever they want into """scum""" read lists. I say scum in quotes in this cae because M@H's entire post was about how Chemdah made sense as scum with Celever because Cele had slipped him somehow via carefully placing his name into a specific location in the reads which is not the sort of spec I like to engage in. I think its the absolute pinnacle of WIFOM because scum are paying attention to where they put buddies in readslists and also trying to find an associative based on "player X's name position in player Y's post" like that on an unflipped player is schizopsting.
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I don't know what point of view this is supposed to espouse

AngryPidgeon said:
Im gonna go with false on this one. Id say there are like 5 reasons that go into a kill
1) PRs / hunting PRs
2) Killing people who are townread
3) Killing people who have good reads
4) Killing "known good" players

I didnt even get to 5 and Ive already covered like 95% of why NKS happen.
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I'll write your number 5, which is "killing someone who has bad reads to line up a mislynch". How do you know which of the reasons is correct, and how do you use that to inform your reads? How do you do that particularly when you're doing this analysis in public and scum are aware that this is your reductive line of thinking?

I liked the full version of my explanation for why I don't do NKA. It's here, below.
apricity said:
2. There are a billion unknowable reasons for why scum choose who to kill each night. A billion narratives can be spun. All of them can sound plausible, all of them are good stories. But there is literally no way to judge one story against another.

You want other stories for why fairy got NK'd? Here:
-Flanders is scum and got scared of fairy latching onto him at EOD
-Someone flanders is scumreading wanted to frame flanders
-NE is scum and got scared of fairy obvtowning from Cel flipping green
-Someone NE is scumreading wanted to frame NE
-Some of the power players are scum and so they wanted to keep the other power players alive (your hypothesis)
-Some of the power players are scumreading are scum, and with let's say M2H/hal voting cel incorrectly they think that we are mislynchable and killing fairy can inspire paranoia

Do you see why I think you can do this forever, without ever meaningfully getting closer to the truth?
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apricity said:
When postgame comes, and I learn people's alignments, I will be re-reading the thread to see what I should have picked up on. As I always do.
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Alright, fair.
apricity said:
'm so happy to see this insight and the level of urgency of the tutorial from you!

Can I ask where this insight and urgency was at EOD?

Let me refresh your fucking memory with all of your posts starting from an hour before deadline.
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LOLLLLL
How is this a response? Ya I didn't act as quickly as I could. I was behind like 10 pages, I hadnt even seen the tracker claim a lot of the way through my catchup posting and no one bothered to mention it to me (or anything at all for that matter) when I asked for a summary of wagons. I didnt even know what the VC was until Wisteria(?) posted a VC which may not have even been entirely accurate. I tried to vote for the CW which I thought was the most sensible and actually had some chance of going through which was Evie. I first voted Chemdah cause he was my more preferred vote and I saw M2H had voted him (though M2H immediately moved his vote somewhere else).

Like yes I could have played it better but I have to work during the week and I cant just be around at any hour of the day to babysit the thread. Nor would I want to cause Ive got MTG and vidya games to play when I truly want to wind down. This whole deflection onto me which is just screencapping my posts and uploading them is not a good look. Am I being a hypocrite? I really dont think so. I didnt vote for a claimed tracker, I tried to find a CW.
 
AngryPidgeon said:
LOLLLLL
How is this a response? Ya I didn't act as quickly as I could. I was behind like 10 pages, I hadnt even seen the tracker claim a lot of the way through my catchup posting and no one bothered to mention it to me (or anything at all for that matter) when I asked for a summary of wagons. I didnt even know what the VC was until Wisteria(?) posted a VC which may not have even been entirely accurate. I tried to vote for the CW which I thought was the most sensible and actually had some chance of going through which was Evie. I first voted Chemdah cause he was my more preferred vote and I saw M2H had voted him (though M2H immediately moved his vote somewhere else).

Like yes I could have played it better but I have to work during the week and I cant just be around at any hour of the day to babysit the thread. Nor would I want to cause Ive got MTG and vidya games to play when I truly want to wind down. This whole deflection onto me which is just screencapping my posts and uploading them is not a good look. Am I being a hypocrite? I really dont think so. I didnt vote for a claimed tracker, I tried to find a CW.
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I would recommend reading the thread then, to start on your journey to becoming a better mafia player.
 
StupidFlandrs48 said:
Alright I went back and reviewed DBD's progression and voting towards EoD and here are some key facts:
-Votes for Celever at 720, which is his first serious vote all game
-Moves onto Evie at 808 after citing he "doesn't like where the Celever wagon is heading" and thinks Evie is less likely to be town than CK
-The only significant events between those votes were Evie and CK voting for Celever
-Celever had expressed strong feelings about Evie being scum earlier on, particularly in connection with me
-The "I have read but not learned" posts from earlier on imply he was following the thread somewhat closely from around post 400 or so
-He also threw around some shade at me later, piggybacking on the "what is Flandrs like when he's angry" discussion from mainly Celever/M2H

So essentially DBD scooted into the thread super late, shared very few original thoughts, and when he started voting he pretty much exclusively borrowed his reasons from other players in a very easy-to-trace way. He also shaded me with the coaching comment at 885 even though our heads were ostensibly in the same place re: wagons at the time, with both of us smelling a rat and backing away from Celever. All my memories of town!DBD involve much more original thought processes and higher levels of effort in their content, even on the low-info D1, so there's a meta angle to my suspicion as well.
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The vote on Celever at 720 wasn't real, I made sure to not use the proper formatting and it was a response to the post above it.
Celever said:
they haven't, yet everyone is voting for me

this is because the people voting for me are scum or throwing
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As for the comments, I wasn't following particularly closely - I'm currently with family, so I've been going out and doing stuff with them for most of the day.

Also, just because I shaded you in #885 doesn't mean I can't agree with your posts regarding the quality of the Celever wagon - I meant it to moreso highlight an interesting change in how you normally react to things and keep an eye on you for later, but not that you were definitely scum (that's why it was a scumlean on my part and not a scumread).
 
pulsar512b said:
I don't have super strong opinions on anyone but I really don't like the people who wasted their vote eod by not voting a wagon, and I suspect someone in there is scum. I also think NE is getting scummier in my mind after the Events
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ok yes thank you for pinging this
i wanna note that the situation reminds me of a similar one in another game i witnessed, where votes were tied between one town and one scum, and the final mafia member refused to take a stance on the two wagons and latched onto a vanity instead
town ended going over due to being on plur

if NE does flip scum i am going to be taking a hard look at AP/M2H/ch3m (even though ch3m did seem staunch on NV i hardly think that should be an excuse)

NightEmerald get to posting its not looking good for you king
 
apricity said:
"Why is your opinion on this so strong now and not in the T W E L V E posts you made in the hour before deadline"
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Hindsight is 20/20. I showed up an hour before the DL, I was 10 pages behind, and I was desperately trying to read up. Its kind of simple but like you SAW the claim in real time and in fact doubled down on your push after the claim and selfvote. This isn't really comparable to what I did at all.

apricity said:
I'll write your number 5, which is "killing someone who has bad reads to line up a mislynch". How do you know which of the reasons is correct, and how do you use that to inform your reads? How do you do that particularly when you're doing this analysis in public and scum are aware that this is your reductive line of thinking?
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Ok sure
5) WIFOM
Which I can say fairly safely constitutes about 10% of mafia NKs. Like when Im playing mons I think in my head what possible moves my opponent might use. If their flygon is 20% likely to be Life Orb and 80% Scarf I dont just throw my hands up and say well we'll never know what this flygon is until it flips. I make an educated guess based on the probability of it being a certain way given my overall knowledge of the meta and my individual read on my opponent. Its like we may as well not analyze anything because any of it could be WIFOM :blobshrug:
 
wisteriapurple said:
ok yes thank you for pinging this
i wanna note that the situation reminds me of a similar one in another game i witnessed, where votes were tied between one town and one scum, and the final mafia member refused to take a stance on the two wagons and latched onto a vanity instead
town ended going over due to being on plur

if NE does flip scum i am going to be taking a hard look at AP/M2H/ch3m (even though ch3m did seem staunch on NV i hardly think that should be an excuse)

NightEmerald get to posting its not looking good for you king
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I think evaling ch3m as just staunch on nv is reasonable but imo it's better to think of them as newer town. Imo that explains basically all their actions
 
ohhhhhh I don't like that vote at all
Dead by Daylight said:
The vote on Celever at 720 wasn't real, I made sure to not use the proper formatting and it was a response to the post above it.
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Whether or not it was a formal vote is irrelevant, it would still appear to reflect your thoughts on the wagon at the time. You don't frame your move onto Evie the way you do without believing in the Celever wagon at some point beforehand. If you're going to argue that you never felt like voting for Celever and the posts I mentioned are not representative of your thoughts at all, I don't believe that.
 
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