Popcorn Mafia 4 - Cycle 5 Deadline August 27 at 10PM EDT

Joey himself is a notable wagon acc idr how many people contributed to it but everyone after Evie first reminded us he exists we all basically went “oh yeah true he’s scum lmao” and that was weirrrrd

I think AP’s mathematically right that the scumteam are bussy boyos this game
 
Celever said:
Joey himself is a notable wagon acc idr how many people contributed to it but everyone after Evie first reminded us he exists we all basically went “oh yeah true he’s scum lmao” and that was weirrrrd

I think AP’s mathematically right that the scumteam are bussy boyos this game
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Or that we’re all way off and almost every wagon’s been on town so the scumteam are freely piling on doesn’t have to be bussing but ygm
 
Celever said:
Huge I’m in the “your opinion matters” group

I think it’s hard asf to decide on so I’ll just talk about what my brain’d do if I had the gun

The macro this game is kinda fucked up rn cos almost no one who’s been accused has been townread more than they’ve been scumread. What I would do is look at notable “wagons” (skipper, Miyami, frankly myself, DBD, Flandrs, I think others) and create a table of all players’ reads on these people with whether they townread scumread or mixed their reads up on each player

Whoever is the most polarised (I.e. townreading everyone or scumreading everyone) becomes the PoE after sanity checking and then move into the micro reads on them to triage your first shot
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i like this idea ty, is there a reason you think the most polarised person is most likely to be scum, not sure i quite get that part
 
Also the above is me being a hero shooter bc we all know I’m gonna hero shoot

The optimal play is to shoot DBD / Flandrs bc everyone agreed their scum and arguably they just, haven’t provided enough high quantity or quality content for buds to potentially try and defend em so they’re kinda limbo gamers

DBD had early town reads and then a big swing to scum reads though so that’s notable
 
Evie said:
i like this idea ty, is there a reason you think the most polarised person is most likely to be scum, not sure i quite get that part
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It covers both our bases in terms of scum strats

The options are we shoot the PoE to get the flips and then work back from there with connection reads. Issue with this is scum have a huge amount of agency to WIFOM here bc they know alignments and bc their reads / votes don’t really matter. No one’s ever spotlit in a EoD scenario where they’re kingmaking with their vote or smth like that, our opinions we’re slamming in the thread don’t really matter unless whoever has the gun particularly likes it, so it’s free for scum to put in whatever reads in the thread they think are optimal for their optics

That makes backreading from the specific flips in a “well realiti scumread Clouds so he must be town” way massively weak, because realiti didn’t get Clouds killed he didn’t vote for him bc no one did. Basically, being right earns you less towncred than normal.

Based on the general lower number of townreads vs scumreads, I think scum have probably worked this out. Which means their agendas are gonna be more specific. Some might think it’s optimal to scumread everyone — it can get shots on not!themself and if they’re right when scum flips it still holds some value, if they’re wrong on town it wasn’t their fault it was the gunman’s — while the imo higher level play is to townread a lot. Townreading holds really low benefit for scum in this setup, because there’s no votes there’s not really “pocketing” in the classic way. Having a high conviction townread that you save at EoD by voting the other guy isn’t here. Because of that, townreading everyone makes you look town asf because it doesn’t feel like it progresses the scum wincon really, but this is a self-pres game for scum in terms of strategy so it’s acc p inspired

Yes scum could have potentially done this maths and worked out they need to not have an agenda at all and just have some random townreads and random scum reads thrown out, some right some wrong, but I just think it’s unlikelier than at least most of them full sending one agenda / strategy
 
And it’s not necessarily better to actually do the “just act like a townie have a random mix of reads some right some wrong” bc being a rank and file townie in this setup is prob gonna get you killed lol

You gotta do something special to not be shot when there’s 5 people left yk, and with the absence of the usual ways of accruing towncred such as wagonomics you gotta replace it with purely qualitative shit

Like this setup is in principle pro-town I think cos it’s forcing scum wayyy outside their normal plays and moves whereas we can just kinda chill and chat and we know it’s coming from a town place lol
 
Evie said:
yeah i understood, im not finding any posts where dbd was townread apart from this which is a swing in the other direction
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Oh really huh

I coulda sworn right after DBD made those first lil recap posts there were a handful of DBD townreads but don’t trust my memory for anything lol
 
Yeah this setup is clearly bus central since mafia never have to walk the walk they can just yap and get free distance

That being said things like underlying reasons and solving are still going to play into reads and should be looked at, though its still like “towny” to have correct reads, just less so than other games

And lategame is a lot harder since usually mafia shoot the deepwolf pool whereas this game we have more deepwolves based on encouraged bussing + we get no support from mafia nightkills (or little, we get some from who gets the gun)
 
Tommy said:
Yeah this setup is clearly bus central since mafia never have to walk the walk they can just yap and get free distance

That being said things like underlying reasons and solving are still going to play into reads and should be looked at, though its still like “towny” to have correct reads, just less so than other games

And lategame is a lot harder since usually mafia shoot the deepwolf pool whereas this game we have more deepwolves based on encouraged bussing + we get no support from mafia nightkills (or little, we get some from who gets the gun)
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Do u like my strategy idea
 
Celever said:
Huge I’m in the “your opinion matters” group

I think it’s hard asf to decide on so I’ll just talk about what my brain’d do if I had the gun

The macro this game is kinda fucked up rn cos almost no one who’s been accused has been townread more than they’ve been scumread. What I would do is look at notable “wagons” (skipper, Miyami, frankly myself, DBD, Flandrs, I think others) and create a table of all players’ reads on these people with whether they townread scumread or mixed their reads up on each player

Whoever is the most polarised (I.e. townreading everyone or scumreading everyone) becomes the PoE after sanity checking and then move into the micro reads on them to triage your first shot
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this was celevers strategy
 
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