I am formally protesting the decision to enforce a replay of game 3 of me vs ksicide, a game which was lost when Showdown staff restarted the server without warning.
The facts are as follows:
My team was a
~65% Leftovers Tangrowth with Swords Dance, Power Whip (revealed), Rock Slide, Earthquake,
a ~49% Choice Band Slaking with Double-Edge (revealed), Giga Impact, Earthquake, Night Slash,
A 90% Life Orb Dodrio with Brave Bird, Return (revealed), Quick Attack, and Roost
And an unrevealed Soul Dew Calm Mind Roost Psychic Draco Meteor Latios
The opponents team was:
Soul Dew CM Psy Draco Roost Latias (revealed)
And CM judgement ice beam Recover Arceus Electric (revealed), both at full health.
At the time of the server crash, Dodrio was in play awaiting the opponents switch in after a KO. The relevant calculations are as follows:
Lvl 82 84 Atk Choice Band Slaking Double-Edge vs. Lvl 70 84 HP / 84 Def Latias: 291-343 (127.6 - 150.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Lvl 82 84 Atk Choice Band Slaking Giga Impact vs. Lvl 69 84 HP / 84 Def Arceus-Electric: 295-348 (105.3 - 124.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Lvl 82 84 Atk Choice Band Slaking Double-Edge vs. Lvl 69 84 HP / 84 Def Arceus-Electric: 237-279 (84.6 - 99.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Lvl 82 84 Atk Choice Band Slaking Earthquake vs. Lvl 69 84 HP / 84 Def Arceus-Electric: 262-310 (93.5 - 110.7%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO
Lvl 86 84 Atk Life Orb Dodrio Brave Bird vs. Lvl 70 84 HP / 84 Def Latias: 205-243 (89.9 - 106.5%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO
Lvl 70 84 SpA Soul Dew Latias Psychic vs. Lvl 86 84 HP / 84 SpD Dodrio: 133-157 (54.7 - 64.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
-2 Lvl 70 84 SpA Soul Dew Latias Draco Meteor vs. Lvl 86 84 HP / 84 SpD Dodrio: 103-123 (42.3 - 50.6%) -- 2% chance to 2HKO
I am claiming that the game was an all but guaranteed mathematical win for me, with the only out for my opponent requiring statistically improbable luck and perfect play with imperfect knowledge, as I will demonstrate below:
First, ksicide must choose the switch in to Dodrio. If he chooses Arceus-Electric, I win immediately. Dodrio outspeeds clicks Return for 50.3 - 59.2%, at which point Slaking has guaranteed OHKOs with Double-Edge into both Arceus and Latias - and more than sufficient health to take the recoil. This establishes the baseline - if at any point Arceus has 15% damage on it I immediately win the game no questions asked due to Slaking outspeeding and OHKOing both enemies.
If ksicide chooses Latias as the switch in vs Dodrio, we first recognize that Brave Bird has a 44% OHKO roll at baseline. If at any point Dodrio clicks Brave Bird and OHKOs, I win the game - if at any point Arceus attempts to switch in on Dodrio I win the game as per scenario 1.
The third baseline to establish is that the unrevealed Latios is not required for any end game path except as a sacrifice on a Slaking Truant turn - setting aside its own capabilities to 1v1 both Latias and Arceus.
On the Latias entry I can further increase the KO range by switching to Tangrowth. As established above, any damage exceeding 10% results in a guaranteed win condition via the Dodrio line. Tangrowth can switch in on the Latias taking Draco for 69.6 - 82%, or Psychic for 44.5 - 52.9% and click Rock Slide into Latias for 28.9 - 34.2%. If Latias chooses not to KO the Tangrowth and attempts to boost after a Draco or Roost stall, Tang can force the required 10% damage via attacks and Swords Dance to secure the 100% win condition scenario. If Latias KOes Tangrowth with Draco on the switch - as Psychic does not kill Dodrio - we refer to the following roll:
-2 Lvl 70 84 SpA Soul Dew Latias Draco Meteor vs. Lvl 86 84 HP / 84 SpD Dodrio: 103-123 (42.3 - 50.6%) -- 2% chance to 2HKO
Dodrio's health is 243 - 10% = 219, following a Brave Bird attack it takes an additional 24 from Life Orb and 68-76 from recoil, with 76 representing OHKO rolls, ergo a maximum of 75 if Brave Bird misses the roll. Accordingly, the chance for Latias to kill Dodrio in this scenario - assuming no lingering damage from Tangrowth, is 243 - 24 - 24 - (68-75) - (103-123) = 24 - (-3) = 15% damage roll in scenarios where I don't hit the 44% OHKO range, net percentage chance of 56%*15%=~8%
As such, all of the following must be true for ksicide to make the final Pokemon necessary to face:
- He must recognize that Latias is a forced switch in, or I win the game.
- He must escape the Latias vs Tangrowth scenario without any damage, or I win the game.
- He must further recognize that Arc-Elec can never enter and take damage, or I win the game.
- If he does, he must do so without being at -2 or less, or else Dodrio enters and clicks Brave Bird with a 92% chance of ending the game.
- If he does this, he must subsequently dodge a Giga Impact at 10% on the Latias - if he does this his highest damage is Draco 26.8 - 31.8%, meaning my Latios at this point can enter on the Latias as -1 Draco does not KO Slaking either.
- If Giga Impact hits and KOs Latias he must immediately attempt to freeze Slaking or I win via Latios forcing sufficient damage for Slaking Earthquake to guaranteed KO Arceus, minimum damage is 10% from Psychic given +0 Latios into +6 Arceus.
Accordingly, the circumstances for ksicide to have a chance for Arc-Electric to play in the end game require a correct assessment of which Pokemon to bring in, perfect play to avoid guaranteed win lines where the worst case scenario for me is 44% to auto-win on the spot with any additional damage guranteeing my win, subsequently hit a 10% miss, or roll a 10% freeze - all of this required simply to reach an Arc-Elec vs Latios 1v1.
In short, with perfect play while facing imperfect knowledge, my opponent required implausible perfect RNG and damage rolls across multiple trials far in excess of reasonable justification simply to survive, with any instance of unfavorable RNG or damage rolls immediately ending the game. I believe this sufficiently demonstrates that my win probability was in excess of 99% at the time of the server crash and I should be awarded the victory accordingly, considering the circumstances of the game's ending were well beyond my control.
