Monster Hunter OU should either be Spiribird wins a game (any color) or low tier Mon surprisingly revealed to be too strong for OU (somehow a regular occurrence). Our metagame gets limited gameplay and is relatively under explored since we mostly have the same 10 players that play regularly with a random spattering of new guys here and there.
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Tournament Solomods Premier League III Commencement
- Thread starter Gekokeso
- Start date
we call this "The Slither King Effect"
hello chat. i am not a manager this year, which means i can make a PR without outing my draft plan, so that's exactly what i'm gonna do!!!
1.
Mid Metangs
The obligatory #1. Unironically tho I think Nog and Jump had a stellar draft. They've got the best clickers in the entire tour aside from maybe Dave's, with names like LpZ, OLK, and ChrisPBacon standing out. qsns with Nog support will lock down the MG2 slot, Ineros is super flexible and has great past performance, gephicka will apparently go crazy in FEVGC, I'm a fraud starter but I will support every tier if given the chance, and both managers are free to support so the clickers will actually have a chance to go in. Overall an insane draft, I can see us going very far this year.
2.
Workers' Union of Gourgsokyo
My alma mater. Before even getting into the draft, both of the manager selfbuys are incredible, with FlamPoke essentially locking down the PoA slot and ana having knowledge on half the metas in the tour. THE_CHUNGLER will smash whatever meta they're put into, Smudge covers FEVGC, and shreyashhy should have DNU covered at least on the tier knowledge front. Mada, Plague, and DripLegend are good clickers who have a solid chance to perform well considering the amount of support they'll be getting. TTK tier-locking into ZA is a strange choice but I expect he'll do well if he's slotted there. The weakest link here is definitely MG2, Orangesodapop has experience in it but otherwise things are looking pretty lacking on that front. Overall this is a really stellar draft, pretty much what I'd expect from the Gourgs. A lot of their support picks were great presences in the server last PMPL and I expect the vibes will be just as strong this tour.
3.
Dave's Dusknoirs
Dave's have once again pulled the genius drafting strategy of "blow all your money on 4 good players and scrounge for the rest," which I would knock, but they keep winning tours with it so I can't really judge. Monai is a guaranteed X-0 in whatever meta he's put in, same for Xrn, spell is another amazing clicker and big tony 2014 isn't half bad either. srvoltmike is apparently a VGC player, though we know from previous years that his support will be limited to hopefully he can self-sustain, Oculars and Tempo are solid clickers who should win often enough to guarantee the team some victories, and the rest I don't know as well but I'm sure they'll do fine with Dave's support. The scariest thing here is definitely the fakemon metas, Monaipricefixed only signed up to play Best Wishes (and technically PoA), but assuming he's slotted in PoA along with Xrn in either MHOU or Touhoumons, that still leaves one fakemon meta unaccounted for, so Dave's will have to find another player comfortable enough to learn something completely new. Still a very solid draft though, and I expect Dave's to make it to playoffs once again.
4.
Terrifying Tanukiefs
A pretty top-heavy squad. They've got igiveuponaname for MHOU, and Fragments and Spammernoob are good general clickers, but there's almost no tier knowledge for most of the formats. Idk who they're planning on putting in MG2, they've got LogIce and sheepie for FEVGC but both are unproven, Akaru Kokuyo signed up for Touhou but idt they've played the tier before, LBN and lostmemories are known tour players but don't have much of a history in Pet Mods so who knows how well they'll do, and they also drafted known frauds Concept and teamo. I can see this squad doing really well in the right situation, but overall Tanukiefs' performance heavily depends on how quick their clickers can pick up the tiers they're placed in, and how well the supports they drafted can help with building for those clickers.
5.
Stamford Starlies
If Starlies do not go X-0 in DNU, they have failed as a team. Jokes aside, this is a solid draft. R8 will be great in MG2 once he's actually alive, Tanny is the only player in the entire tour with BW experience, fifi should be solid in Touhou, BenjiTho is one of very few MHOU mainers in the draft, and volcaronavgc literally has VGC in their name. NEO is probably their pick for DNU but they have like 5 DNU players so they're not lacking in that slot. Their clickers are kinda lacking, I will admit. M0onStarr and zxgzxg both have prior tour experience but have middling results, Bobsican and woo the same but with actively bad results, and SquidSpring I don't know that well but is probably their best slot for something like PoA, which they'll otherwise really be struggling to find a player for. Definitely a team with some weaker tiers, but I do see potential here.
6.
Slugma Slugma Slugmas
31.5k for Baddy in this pool is fucking crazy. Regardless, I think this draft could've gone better for the Slugs. Necas should crush in FEVGC, fiish is their Touhoumons knowledge base, Ryan&Ditto covers MHOU, and Lacks seems to be their ZA player, but otherwise clickers like Taka and Baddy are pretty much flying without support. One notable weak point here is again PoA, there weren't that many support options in the pool to begin with and Slugmas didn't pick up any of them, so hopefully they can pull something together or else they'll be hanging high and dry in the slot. Another rough spot is MG2, not really sure who they're gonna be slotting there. Slugmas are kinda relying on Quinn passing teams to half the players while also playing himself in order to do well here, so we'll see if that plan pans out.
7.
Gallade Gladiators
This is a weird one. evakiyama! and Stories are solid clickers, QT has at least played Touhoumons before, and iPetBigfoot+Evie is a proven FEVGC combo. Nashrock can do well with support but idk where they'll be slotted, Zpice is their DNU pick but idk if he'll perform, and the rest are ppl I've never heard of. Supports seem really lacking for this one, which is bad considering how much they're relying on their top clickers to pull wins, so overall I think Gallades are gonna have a rough time this tour.
8.
Earnest Espurrs
The ultimate fraud team. Everywhere I look I see frauds. pannu is a fraud, Clas is a fraud unless they're in Teramax, Paul will be playing from a nursing home, Pixie has zero records, TTTech is washed, Slikkles is pretty cool actually, and the rest are no-names except cityscapes, who is like their one good clicker. Actually seraphz is also a clicker, but like who tf is their FEVGC slot? Who tf is their support for half these tiers? pannu will be slotted in MG2 and go 1-6, ZA idek who they're slotting, and don't even get me started on the fakemon metas. Unless Paul activates his third eye and builds for half the tiers, I doubt these guys are making it to playoffs.
In conclusion, don't count your chickens before they egg. Or was it to count your chickens if they hatch? Or did you need to count your road? Or...
1.
Mid Metangs The obligatory #1. Unironically tho I think Nog and Jump had a stellar draft. They've got the best clickers in the entire tour aside from maybe Dave's, with names like LpZ, OLK, and ChrisPBacon standing out. qsns with Nog support will lock down the MG2 slot, Ineros is super flexible and has great past performance, gephicka will apparently go crazy in FEVGC, I'm a fraud starter but I will support every tier if given the chance, and both managers are free to support so the clickers will actually have a chance to go in. Overall an insane draft, I can see us going very far this year.
GRAND SLAM 13
UU Classic 2021
BDSP Grand Slam
ADV NU Spotlight
SS NU CUP
BW RU OPEN
ORAS GRAND SLAM
BW GRAND SLAM
GSC NU Cup
BW PU CUP
ADV PU CUP
ADV RU OPEN
RBYPL 1
GSCPL 1
PUWC 2021
PUWC 2022
Teamballo 2023
RUPL 2023
PUPL 2021
PUPL 2023
ZUPL 2023
EPL 2023
ALTPL 2024
NUCL 2024
UUPL 2024
ROAPL X
1v1 PL VIII
UU Classic 2021
BDSP Grand Slam
ADV NU Spotlight
SS NU CUP
BW RU OPEN
ORAS GRAND SLAM
BW GRAND SLAM
GSC NU Cup
BW PU CUP
ADV PU CUP
ADV RU OPEN
RBYPL 1
GSCPL 1
PUWC 2021
PUWC 2022
Teamballo 2023
RUPL 2023
PUPL 2021
PUPL 2023
ZUPL 2023
EPL 2023
ALTPL 2024
NUCL 2024
UUPL 2024
ROAPL X
1v1 PL VIII
2.
Workers' Union of Gourgsokyo My alma mater. Before even getting into the draft, both of the manager selfbuys are incredible, with FlamPoke essentially locking down the PoA slot and ana having knowledge on half the metas in the tour. THE_CHUNGLER will smash whatever meta they're put into, Smudge covers FEVGC, and shreyashhy should have DNU covered at least on the tier knowledge front. Mada, Plague, and DripLegend are good clickers who have a solid chance to perform well considering the amount of support they'll be getting. TTK tier-locking into ZA is a strange choice but I expect he'll do well if he's slotted there. The weakest link here is definitely MG2, Orangesodapop has experience in it but otherwise things are looking pretty lacking on that front. Overall this is a really stellar draft, pretty much what I'd expect from the Gourgs. A lot of their support picks were great presences in the server last PMPL and I expect the vibes will be just as strong this tour.
3.
Dave's Dusknoirs Dave's have once again pulled the genius drafting strategy of "blow all your money on 4 good players and scrounge for the rest," which I would knock, but they keep winning tours with it so I can't really judge. Monai is a guaranteed X-0 in whatever meta he's put in, same for Xrn, spell is another amazing clicker and big tony 2014 isn't half bad either. srvoltmike is apparently a VGC player, though we know from previous years that his support will be limited to hopefully he can self-sustain, Oculars and Tempo are solid clickers who should win often enough to guarantee the team some victories, and the rest I don't know as well but I'm sure they'll do fine with Dave's support. The scariest thing here is definitely the fakemon metas, Monai
4.
A pretty top-heavy squad. They've got igiveuponaname for MHOU, and Fragments and Spammernoob are good general clickers, but there's almost no tier knowledge for most of the formats. Idk who they're planning on putting in MG2, they've got LogIce and sheepie for FEVGC but both are unproven, Akaru Kokuyo signed up for Touhou but idt they've played the tier before, LBN and lostmemories are known tour players but don't have much of a history in Pet Mods so who knows how well they'll do, and they also drafted known frauds Concept and teamo. I can see this squad doing really well in the right situation, but overall Tanukiefs' performance heavily depends on how quick their clickers can pick up the tiers they're placed in, and how well the supports they drafted can help with building for those clickers.
5.
Stamford Starlies If Starlies do not go X-0 in DNU, they have failed as a team. Jokes aside, this is a solid draft. R8 will be great in MG2 once he's actually alive, Tanny is the only player in the entire tour with BW experience, fifi should be solid in Touhou, BenjiTho is one of very few MHOU mainers in the draft, and volcaronavgc literally has VGC in their name. NEO is probably their pick for DNU but they have like 5 DNU players so they're not lacking in that slot. Their clickers are kinda lacking, I will admit. M0onStarr and zxgzxg both have prior tour experience but have middling results, Bobsican and woo the same but with actively bad results, and SquidSpring I don't know that well but is probably their best slot for something like PoA, which they'll otherwise really be struggling to find a player for. Definitely a team with some weaker tiers, but I do see potential here.
6.
Slugma Slugma Slugmas 31.5k for Baddy in this pool is fucking crazy. Regardless, I think this draft could've gone better for the Slugs. Necas should crush in FEVGC, fiish is their Touhoumons knowledge base, Ryan&Ditto covers MHOU, and Lacks seems to be their ZA player, but otherwise clickers like Taka and Baddy are pretty much flying without support. One notable weak point here is again PoA, there weren't that many support options in the pool to begin with and Slugmas didn't pick up any of them, so hopefully they can pull something together or else they'll be hanging high and dry in the slot. Another rough spot is MG2, not really sure who they're gonna be slotting there. Slugmas are kinda relying on Quinn passing teams to half the players while also playing himself in order to do well here, so we'll see if that plan pans out.
7.
Gallade Gladiators This is a weird one. evakiyama! and Stories are solid clickers, QT has at least played Touhoumons before, and iPetBigfoot+Evie is a proven FEVGC combo. Nashrock can do well with support but idk where they'll be slotted, Zpice is their DNU pick but idk if he'll perform, and the rest are ppl I've never heard of. Supports seem really lacking for this one, which is bad considering how much they're relying on their top clickers to pull wins, so overall I think Gallades are gonna have a rough time this tour.
8.
Earnest Espurrs The ultimate fraud team. Everywhere I look I see frauds. pannu is a fraud, Clas is a fraud unless they're in Teramax, Paul will be playing from a nursing home, Pixie has zero records, TTTech is washed, Slikkles is pretty cool actually, and the rest are no-names except cityscapes, who is like their one good clicker. Actually seraphz is also a clicker, but like who tf is their FEVGC slot? Who tf is their support for half these tiers? pannu will be slotted in MG2 and go 1-6, ZA idek who they're slotting, and don't even get me started on the fakemon metas. Unless Paul activates his third eye and builds for half the tiers, I doubt these guys are making it to playoffs.
In conclusion, don't count your chickens before they egg. Or was it to count your chickens if they hatch? Or did you need to count your road? Or...
Solopl III Power Ranking of Players Who Went for Exactly 10k
1. Seraphz
2. Beaf Cultist
1. Seraphz
2. Beaf Cultist
Team Rankings:
1. Mid Metangs: It is said that when Osama Bin Laden's compound was raided by SEAL team 6, they found a lifetime subscription to the Nog Blog alongside his belongings; multiple sources corroborate this. Infamous tier basher Noglastica pairs up with the Mary Immaculate of DNU: Jumpheart, to bring a very powerful team to the competition, the pair being the most accomplished manager duo in solopl. Somehow, for some reason, Noglastica's main tactic of just ragebaiting every single other manager worked this year as every manager decided to let them get the best team possible at dirt cheap (except Daves, who straight up got held hostage for being broke for the entire draft). The team combines old goats from the Drakloak era like Runo and QSNS, the good segments of the flop era of the jynxes like Beaf Cultist and Ineros, and distressingly low 3k steals like ChrisPB and OLK. Their record speaks for itself, as the dynamic duo are bound to make a splash, but wherever that splash is a light drizzle or a thundering storm remains to be seen.
2. Daves: For about 3 years now the Dave Dynasty has ruled the petmods tour scene with an Iron Fist®, farming custom avatars and Discord Nitro like no other group of people has done in order to cement their legacy as the most threatening group in petmods history. After being left with 50 bucks and a lighter trying to buy back their family, Chairman Larry and Great Teacher Mana were subjected to grueling gourg psychological torture, yet still managed to get pretty good 3k slots like Tempo and Oculars that round another powerful lineup for the most powerful dynasty in Petmods history. I don't doubt that this team will perform well, especially since there's now a BW tier that they can slot Monai in instead of sending him to the trenches in a fakemon tier, but wherever they are going to manage to win it all again or finally face its yellow river catastrophe remains to be seen.
3. Gourgeists: There is evidence of a higher power ruling over our lives, some sort of divine figure who controls our every action, and at the present, it really fucking hates the gourgs. Flampoke joins the fun in the yearly Anaconja divine torture ritual to try and finally get this squad to get past the semi-finals. Like all years, the gourg lineup is nothing short of stacked. The most threatening out of all self-bought manager pairs, generalist excellence with the likes of Mada and TTK, and people with benignant/malignant auras such as THE_CHUNGLER and OSP. Logic dictactes that this tour will not be the exception, faith makes us hope the gourgs will at last kill their white whale for once by winning, and declare 2026 as the year of the gourg.
4. Terrifying Tanukiefs: The only team to choose a fakemon as their mascot since the tragic tale of the Manicunos, the Tanukiefs will now attempt to see if the fakemon curse is dormant or still active. CEO of white people Concept joins forces with Cow of "Holy Cow" fame to bring a well-balanced team. CAP comandos Fragments and Spammernoob provide a quite competent building core for the likes of LBN, Lostmemories, Igiveuponaname and more, even if their general experience isn't the best. Regardless of my opinion of Concept's drafting acumen, his building skills are quite potent, which, combined with the support from Cow (I'm yapping here, as far as im aware from their messages in petmods discord im not sure this guy is even alive atp) should make for quite an interesting team as long as they force Spammernoob to not get coerced by other squads to give them teams.
5. Slugmas: No other team lives in more Petmod infamy than the slugmas. They are known as the fishermen, the cheaters, the hackers, the antagonists, the double-crossers, the cheesers, the worst kind of people on earth who will stop at nothing and will do anything degenerate to win the tournament, except actually win their games when it matters the most. I am exaggerating a bit there, but atp the Slugs have as much of a terrible record of getting prizes in Petmods team tours as the gourgs, and somehow they have their weakest draft yet this year, even if their manager pair is the strongest ever as Quinn finally got a sentient player to comanage in Necas. Aside from two strong managers and two strong clickers like Baddy and naere, the rest of the team is either mainer super soldiers or people that are good but not entirely impressive, and notably have 0 builders which means their player will actually have to build stuff instead of milk out some poor soul (jk they WILL find someone, I can ensure you that). Not much to talk about this year, but Slugmas are notorious for feeding from the hatred of other users and using it to power up their tour runs to ruin the dreams of other teams.
6. Gallade Gladiators: The most pleasant surprise in the last PMPL, the Gallades are now entering the much more brutal waters of the first team tour in PetMods history to feature 8 teams. Featuring a relatively new yet passionate leader to the Petmods scene, the Briton Zpice joins forces with Jeoz to bring a team that, while seemingly unassuming on the surface, will surely give more than a few teams quite the scare. While the actual building component seems like it will fall on the shoulders of the two managers in every tier (besides iPetBigfoot+Evie providing a powerful VGC core) they have a large amount of competent clickers like QT, Evakiyama!, Stories and Nashrock. Not a flashy squad, but certainly one that has potential, man.
7. Earnest Espurrs: A team held together by glue, scotch tape, hopes and dreams. Ghastlypixie was left trying to hold the squad together after an unfortunate incident, but has now gotten the help from Clas to help salvage this sinking ship. It will have to leverage its best clickers like cityscapes, slikkles, clas and Zastra if they want an opportunity. That is unless the likes of TTTech and pannu can magically stop frauding for once in a tour or if the espurrs are willing to commit elder abuse to get Paulluxx to build them everything, alongside having to learn every tier with the exception of PoA where the great mega is allegedly their LeBron, allegedly. From a change in leadership to almost not being able to have a manager present for the draft, this team has faced many hardships, but if DNUPL taught me anything is that you can do everything you desire with as much spite your heart can hold.
8. Stamford Starlies: Out of all the teams that could be possibly be labeled Glup Shittos, the Starlies out-glup their competition via- This section is completely irrelevant because they did the classic mistake of drafting r8 without being aware that his presence outside DNUPL causes the team to get afflicted with an ancient Mesopotamian curse. They ain't winning shit.
1. Mid Metangs: It is said that when Osama Bin Laden's compound was raided by SEAL team 6, they found a lifetime subscription to the Nog Blog alongside his belongings; multiple sources corroborate this. Infamous tier basher Noglastica pairs up with the Mary Immaculate of DNU: Jumpheart, to bring a very powerful team to the competition, the pair being the most accomplished manager duo in solopl. Somehow, for some reason, Noglastica's main tactic of just ragebaiting every single other manager worked this year as every manager decided to let them get the best team possible at dirt cheap (except Daves, who straight up got held hostage for being broke for the entire draft). The team combines old goats from the Drakloak era like Runo and QSNS, the good segments of the flop era of the jynxes like Beaf Cultist and Ineros, and distressingly low 3k steals like ChrisPB and OLK. Their record speaks for itself, as the dynamic duo are bound to make a splash, but wherever that splash is a light drizzle or a thundering storm remains to be seen.
2. Daves: For about 3 years now the Dave Dynasty has ruled the petmods tour scene with an Iron Fist®, farming custom avatars and Discord Nitro like no other group of people has done in order to cement their legacy as the most threatening group in petmods history. After being left with 50 bucks and a lighter trying to buy back their family, Chairman Larry and Great Teacher Mana were subjected to grueling gourg psychological torture, yet still managed to get pretty good 3k slots like Tempo and Oculars that round another powerful lineup for the most powerful dynasty in Petmods history. I don't doubt that this team will perform well, especially since there's now a BW tier that they can slot Monai in instead of sending him to the trenches in a fakemon tier, but wherever they are going to manage to win it all again or finally face its yellow river catastrophe remains to be seen.
3. Gourgeists: There is evidence of a higher power ruling over our lives, some sort of divine figure who controls our every action, and at the present, it really fucking hates the gourgs. Flampoke joins the fun in the yearly Anaconja divine torture ritual to try and finally get this squad to get past the semi-finals. Like all years, the gourg lineup is nothing short of stacked. The most threatening out of all self-bought manager pairs, generalist excellence with the likes of Mada and TTK, and people with benignant/malignant auras such as THE_CHUNGLER and OSP. Logic dictactes that this tour will not be the exception, faith makes us hope the gourgs will at last kill their white whale for once by winning, and declare 2026 as the year of the gourg.
4. Terrifying Tanukiefs: The only team to choose a fakemon as their mascot since the tragic tale of the Manicunos, the Tanukiefs will now attempt to see if the fakemon curse is dormant or still active. CEO of white people Concept joins forces with Cow of "Holy Cow" fame to bring a well-balanced team. CAP comandos Fragments and Spammernoob provide a quite competent building core for the likes of LBN, Lostmemories, Igiveuponaname and more, even if their general experience isn't the best. Regardless of my opinion of Concept's drafting acumen, his building skills are quite potent, which, combined with the support from Cow (I'm yapping here, as far as im aware from their messages in petmods discord im not sure this guy is even alive atp) should make for quite an interesting team as long as they force Spammernoob to not get coerced by other squads to give them teams.
5. Slugmas: No other team lives in more Petmod infamy than the slugmas. They are known as the fishermen, the cheaters, the hackers, the antagonists, the double-crossers, the cheesers, the worst kind of people on earth who will stop at nothing and will do anything degenerate to win the tournament, except actually win their games when it matters the most. I am exaggerating a bit there, but atp the Slugs have as much of a terrible record of getting prizes in Petmods team tours as the gourgs, and somehow they have their weakest draft yet this year, even if their manager pair is the strongest ever as Quinn finally got a sentient player to comanage in Necas. Aside from two strong managers and two strong clickers like Baddy and naere, the rest of the team is either mainer super soldiers or people that are good but not entirely impressive, and notably have 0 builders which means their player will actually have to build stuff instead of milk out some poor soul (jk they WILL find someone, I can ensure you that). Not much to talk about this year, but Slugmas are notorious for feeding from the hatred of other users and using it to power up their tour runs to ruin the dreams of other teams.
6. Gallade Gladiators: The most pleasant surprise in the last PMPL, the Gallades are now entering the much more brutal waters of the first team tour in PetMods history to feature 8 teams. Featuring a relatively new yet passionate leader to the Petmods scene, the Briton Zpice joins forces with Jeoz to bring a team that, while seemingly unassuming on the surface, will surely give more than a few teams quite the scare. While the actual building component seems like it will fall on the shoulders of the two managers in every tier (besides iPetBigfoot+Evie providing a powerful VGC core) they have a large amount of competent clickers like QT, Evakiyama!, Stories and Nashrock. Not a flashy squad, but certainly one that has potential, man.
7. Earnest Espurrs: A team held together by glue, scotch tape, hopes and dreams. Ghastlypixie was left trying to hold the squad together after an unfortunate incident, but has now gotten the help from Clas to help salvage this sinking ship. It will have to leverage its best clickers like cityscapes, slikkles, clas and Zastra if they want an opportunity. That is unless the likes of TTTech and pannu can magically stop frauding for once in a tour or if the espurrs are willing to commit elder abuse to get Paulluxx to build them everything, alongside having to learn every tier with the exception of PoA where the great mega is allegedly their LeBron, allegedly. From a change in leadership to almost not being able to have a manager present for the draft, this team has faced many hardships, but if DNUPL taught me anything is that you can do everything you desire with as much spite your heart can hold.
8. Stamford Starlies:
ok but can they update the thread to be in the right subforum
touhoumons w1 review
writing reviews has been scientifically proven to improve future winrate
lbn vs fiish 
both sides went into this game looking to brawl. we are not seeing any passive mons, we're barely even seeing any utility mons, both players have rocks (suika for lbn, kaguya for fiish) but it's tough to say whether either one will even have time to go for them. i would probably give the matchup edge to lbn because scarf flan will be super devastating and the fiish psyspam idea runs into 2 steels + flan + misty surge suika (though suika herself is hardly doing anything besides catching out a reisen volt switch). still fiish has a lot of play with kogasa and vivit, and it's not like the psychics are completely stonewalled, patchouli will always be doing huge damage to whoever comes in.
shinmy lead makes a lot of sense from lbn, sukuna beats all 6 from full hp, you can even dynamax on patchy if you want. fiish leads kogasa which feels a bit odd to me, kogasa is a really important mon and i'd want to keep her in the back to get opportunities later. as for what the kogasa set is, we could be looking at band or some other pivot, cause the psyterrain means sd aqua jet ideas are a little silly, but i don't think you have enough time to pivot around in the early game, you need to start getting damage on things as soon as possible. i would probably just have led one of the psychics, of course you don't want to run into flan but the beginning of the game is her weakest point and you should be able to handle her and get your own initiative going with like kaguya.
we see t1 hard switch (!) from fiish into vivit, which then manages to 1v1 the 3atks chesto rest shinmy thanks to lbn overpredicting and clicking spirit break initially on what i guess was hard patchouli predict, followed by a fortunate missile burn on sacred sword. interestingly lbn chooses not to dynamax on the kill turn, wondering if this was a mistake or if they wanted to prevent something like kogasa sd (assuming scarf flan + non-scarf chimata), though i think youre probably fine there with gigaton -> spirit break -> go to chimata and you either live a wave crash (assuming physdef) or kill them with recoil (if they go to +4). if it was some weirdo chimata spread then understandable play though.
lbn revenges with flan who reveals a moldy special set, potentially not even scarf at all, who clicks searing shot for a pitiful 20% into kogasa. assuming max spa flan, this means kogasa is either very bulky (like, probably more than even max hp) or av, both of which are pretty radical but of the two i would be more inclined to assume av. lbn doesn't want to auto-lose to sd so they go chimata on uturn. it takes 3%, confirming that this chimata has at least some physdef investment, as 0 atk kogasa does min 4.2% to no bulk chimata. we also see leftovers revealed, meaning no scarf.
the rabbit arrives and clicks volt switch for only 50%, meaning we're probably looking at full spdef chimata. rather than recovering, lbn volt switches themselves (good decision) on the vivit to bring in flan, who reveals scarf and kills off the vivit with searing shot. 5-5, but kogasa is in now and nobody is left to take wave crash. flan is invaluable psy immune + speed control for lategame, so lbn chooses to sacrifice chimata and fiish uturns, which i think is definitely wrong. sure, patchouli gets in, but even with the kill she's much easier to revenge, while kogasa can kind of just uturn on everything slower and beast on hatate and flan. lbn can also just deny patchy a kill by correctly predicting blue flare and going flan, which is what happens in the game.
here lbn has the option to barrage for a kill and damage on everything and the option to searing shot (stupid, but if you burn kogasa the game is over); rather than either of these, they choose the midground and go chimata. a little fancy, seeing how you're just putting off the gameplan against kogasa, but i understand wanting more hp on chimata (esp with vivit now removed) and you're still a tempo ahead if kogasa comes in, which is what happens. fiish goes back to the bunny, but rather than recovering lbn actually goes to suika to get rocks.
without a doubt this is, like, the only thing suika ever does in the position, but it will make a huge difference. however, fiish chooses to go kaguya and get their own rocks, which will be massively limiting against flan. both sides dance around for a bit after this, with chimata finding an opportunity to heal and kogasa revealing boots. eventually, fiish doubles into patchouli on chimata and kills her off with blue flare. this is huge for fiish, as with chimata gone, kogasa looks insanely strong, though there are still resources for lbn in the form on hatate and iku.
iku comes in, revealing boots, and rapid spins on the reisen switchin. i think fiish absolutely shouldn't have switched out here, patchy never ever gets another opportunity (except against suika but like, who cares about her) and you can 2hko through multiscale with moongeist beam and then clicking mist ball when iku is below half. instead reisen is inexplicably brought in to refresh psyterrain, then kogasa bravely comes in to defog (didnt even know she got that) while lbn hard switches into hatate. fiish brings in remi to try and stop her from setting up, but it's instead a more sober boots attacker set that gets in 83% with shock wave and switches out on crunch (scared of scarf, which was never confirmed or denied).
fiish doesn't have an electric resist at this point, so despite being a mon up the squad looks like it's almost crumbling to shock wave, though iku reveals revelation dance, meaning she's actually a no electric move set that gets hard walled by kogasa (a little bit sketchy to use revdance on a misty surge team). the next few turns are kind of stupid, lbn is trying to bait fiish into committing and clicking play rough on a hatate switch, which eventually happens and remi is sacrificed.
here you can go to patchy or reisen. both mons get revenged by flan; the difference is that reisen is prediction-reliant, and patchy needs hp to beat hatate in the endgame. fiish chooses reisen and hits the prediction, slamming suika with specs freezing glare and removing the most fraudulent defensive piece in the position (though even fraudulent pieces are relevant in a war of sacrifices).
lbn goes flan and fiish takes two forbidden barrages with kogasa before clicking play rough for the kill. at this point, things look pretty much decided in fiish's favor as kaguya, reisen, and patchy can each 1v1 one of the remaining mons. lbn reveals uturn hatate (WHY was this not clicked against reisen earlier???????) but there are too many mons with too many hp and the game ends.
pretty nice game, felt like it kept going back and forth. i think lbn definitely should've gone suika against vivit in the early game, shinmy is just always so threatening and you don't need suika for anything else. cool sets also, i really like rest shinmy, aoa hatate, and spdef kogasa, though idk how new those are.
solrock vs tony 
cirno snow mirror, with chilly reception youmu for solrock and letty for tony. both sides have also invested in defensive cores, with kanako and hina from solrock's side and suwako + shinmy + tenshi from tony. solrock has the weirdos tewi and seiga, it's not entirely clear what they do or why they're here. i would give the matchup advantage to tony because solrock's team is just super frail and i can see it going down super easy after the kanako + hina core collapses, which will happen eventually, while i don't think tewi seiga and cirno are getting it done vs shinmy + suwako + multiple revengers.
tony leads letty vs youmu and just clicks veil t1, icy rock sacred sword wouldn't even have 2hkod full physdef letty, this mon is crazy. solrock brings in hina, trying to get damage on the shinmy with fire blast, but tony goes tenshi instead and doubles to cirno on the kanako switch.
at this point i think tony already has a huge lead, solrock has no real ice resist and veil is a massive game-changer, most of solrock's resources are fast, offensive mons that hate not being able to actually kill things.
av hina takes a blizzard for 37, tony goes into tenshi again (seemingly unafraid of mortal), but takes a fire blast burn. veil also wears off and letty is revealed to be neither icy rock nor light clay, weirdly. youmu comes in on sword of hisou eq for 40, scares away the tenshi, and receptions into the hina on the letty switchin. i don't really understand this play, feels like seiga should be the one coming in here if you want damage. suwako comes in and tony once again gets momentum, getting in shinmy on a tewi switchin. there's nothing resembling a shinmy answer on solrock's team; kanako looks the most like one, so she's brought in and subsequently dies to ice hammer.
i won't go into detail on the rest of the game as shinmyoumaru unceremoniously kills every remaining mon and there isn't a lot solrock can do. seiga tries revbless but it doesn't really do anything. letty is also revealed to be eject button which (with apologies to tony) is completely counterintuitive in my opinion cause it means you take chip early, have to come in more times (maybe on rocks), and as a result barely ever get to click veil. it only really makes sense if you win by getting cirno in asap vs no blizzard resist.
overall not a lot to say here, in retrospect there was pretty much nothing that could've been done against shinmy. happens. i do hope to see tewi and seiga being used in future weeks, they have some cool things going on with them
also brick break youmu won, stay woke
fififlutters vs qt 
only matchup of the week that can't really be called a mirror, fifi has a very employed balance while qt has setup spam likely with dd iku. impossible to say on preview who has the better matchup, as a lot depends on fifi's sets (easy way to say i dont know the meta very well)
fifi leads scarf rumia into the screens ran and knocks the light clay, which is very good for her though she'll still need to be careful of the various demons in qt's arsenal. sash sd momiji comes out first (i think the 2nd knock wasn't fifi's best play), bites the physdef kanako repeatedly (hungry??), and dies to multiple earthquakes. ran is then sacrificed for reflect; fifi had a window to recover or do something else here, but eq makes sense.
eternity comes in next and fifi clicks hurricane for a crisp 99%, then fifi sacks mokou to hurricane and straightforwardly revenge kills with alice. mokou being gone makes enoko a decent mon at the very least, but qt has also lost two mons without dealing any damage to the majority of fifi's team, and their screens are also gone. iku comes in next but i feel like fifi should be able to handle her by attacking with alice and finishing the job with kanako. this happens, and byakuren comes in next.
fifi can either go for hurricane or try her luck going hard lily (im not sure what the lily set is so this may not be viable), she goes with the former and hits for 90% but then misplays by going hard lily from +1 instead of just sacrificing the kanako. i think she had a 100% win otherwise, scarf superpower rumia + iku + weakened lily should always beat lastmon enoko, though if it's something weird like no fighting move rumia + physical iku then you might be in some trouble. from here going hard kanako is correct, but it didn't really matter cause qt crit every move anyway and fifi lost all her mons.
tough game, fifi positioned herself very well earlier on in the game and it was unfortunate to watch that ultimately yield nothing. that said, she did make liberal use of that sweet poison we call 70% accurate hurricane, and if either of the ones she'd used missed then we likely would've been looking at a much different and more double-edged position. i also think she would've gotten a lot out of rocks, but i can hardly fault her for assuming boots eternity.
fifi brought the only mokou this week and also opted for alice instead of the more standard shinmyoumaru, which i found pretty cool, she always brings neat structures that no one else is using. qt's team was also pretty interesting, the double slow steel definitely wouldn't be the first thing i'd think of on screens offense, but i can see them holding on for some time against creatures like cirno, though enoko and momiji are also both frauds that have 0 spdef, so who's to say really. i did get the impression there wasn't much qt could have done to get a better position, probably they had to challenge the scarf rumia with one of the steels rather than lose light clay, but this also would've been a big commit and likely would've resulted in rocks going up, which would be really bad. if iku was the bizarre dd/supercell/ascent/spin (unironically think it mightve been this), maybe it wasn't terrible though.
cityscapes vs chrispbacon 
3rd playstyle matchup in a row, we have marisa balance vs marisa balance. im not happy to see both moriyas into my physdef keiki and 2 steels into kaguya, but chris's cb marisa counterplay is super dubious and i have this helpful mixdef komachi into the opposing marisa so i can't complain too much. i wasn't expecting shinmy lead cause marisa vs shinmy is basically a worst case scenario for chris, and i didn't think kaguya would lead to click rocks (figured one of the moriyas was the rocker) so i led rumia. rumia isn't pursuit trapping anyone this game and it isn't very good into marisa + kaguya, so i figured i could trade it off early game for damage and then kill everyone with marisa later.
i'm able to click knock and icy wind (!!!) into the kanako lead as chris goes for an eq and spike, then land a knock on the shinmy. this is basically exactly what i wanted out of the early game, my marisa and kaguya are now super opened up and i feel like the burden is on chris to stop me from just bringing in the demons and winning. keiki takes ice hammer but i don't really care cause keiki isn't a good mon here, i grab rocks and go back to rumia to get damage on the suwako, though chris also gets rocks so my marisa will be super limited.
shinmy outspeeds rumia and kills me, this surprised me at the time cause i had some speed (68) on rumia to outspeed uninvested shinmy, but in retrospect probably should've seen it coming, 0 spe shinmy is pretty rare. i don't wanna go kaguya cause of dynamax or keiki cause of it doing nothing, so i choose marisa and chris sacrifices kanako, which is definitely correct.
kaguya comes in and i start sweating, i figure it's def the standard offensive set and i don't kill that from full, so i decide to go to my slow scarf chimata and try to kill it with make it rain. fortunately for me, chris gets really puzzled by my spread and loses the kaguya. having this big threat gone feels like a huge weight off my shoulders, but i feel like i still have to be super careful with the positional decisions i make.
marisa comes in and i need someone to sacrifice and this is a huge decision for me. i really, really want chimata alive cause defog would be huge for me, but i don't see a definitively correct play either way. i deliberate on going to all 5 mons for some time (yes, even marisa) and ultimately decide on sacrificing keiki, she's *so* close to being a good mon (if she gets to recover and suwako vanishes she wins on her own), but i felt that the factors limiting her were too decisive, though it felt horrible sacrificing my only volt switch switchin.
after this i'm not exactly sure what to do, kaguya dies to 2 (i am not power gem), i could try marisa speed tie but then i also have to 50/50 flare blitz/double-edge vs stayin/hard scarf chimata, which i think shakes out to give me a 1/3 chance of grabbing a kill if chris stays in 2/3 of the time. i didn't like this at all, so i went with the third option, komachi. shackle was stupid, i keep forgetting suwako is earth eater and not water absorb, but w/e never punished. shinmy comes in, though, and this is really scary as thunderpunch will get a kill on its own. i figure i have to cut my losses and accept the fact that hazard removal + marisa isn't a realistic winpath at this point, so i throw out chimata, which i think was correct. chris sacrifices shinmy to marisa flare blitz, then kills me with chimata volt switch and goes to their own marisa.
now i have to risk this calc on my 52% komachi:
252 SpA Reckless Marisa Kirisame Light of Ruin vs. 252 HP / 108 SpD Komachi Onozuka: 188-222 (47.2 - 55.7%) -- 78.5% chance to 2HKO
the marisa MISSES and im able to recover and land a liquidation on suwako, leaving it on 9 after leftovers.
here i'm super considering going to kaguya, but i'm terrified that the suwako will uturn on the switch, after which there are probably winning lines with both marisa and chimata against my kaguya, and i just don't want chris to have another sacrifice in general. so i liquidation to take it off the board and it toxics me. against toxic switching definitely would've been correct, kaguya would kill suwako and then chris would've had to either lock into make it rain on chimata or kill kaguya with marisa; in either case, komachi would get to recover, after which i probably beat the last two. volt switch, trick, and light of ruin are all very scary individually, but the positioning is awkward so they don't synergize with each other to create unstoppable threats--if chimata volt switches into marisa, marisa dies; if marisa clicks light of ruin, i just recover, if chimata tricks me, i'm healthy enough to kill everyone with liquidation. there was a clever idea to kill kaguya with marisa, uturn to chimata on komachi recover, volt switch OR trick on liquidation OR recover, then (if volt switch/liquidation was played previously) volt switch OR trick on liquidation OR recover once again in the ensuing 1v1. hax notwithstanding, this would've been a 2/3 in my favor.
back to the game (only to divert away instantly once again), akira was saying i was dead lost if chimata came in to revenge rather than marisa, it was definitely a better overall line for chris, trick specifically looks very strong and kaguya can't come in on it because chimata is too healthy and i would lose my lo. meanwhile if komachi stays in, i don't really have a better line than trading it off against the chimata and trying to win vs marisa with kaguya. there was a secret resource in the position but i won't reveal it because that shit is prep.
anyway, marisa uturns on komachi, chimata takes a liquidation, here i spend some time deliberating on lines and ultimately decide on kaguya, i didn't actually have anything concretely calculated but i knew that if kaguya took trick it was very very good into the last 2, and if it took volt switch then i was probably fine with that, i get 2hkod anyway so might as well lock that in and force marisa to kill me. if make it rain was played, i was probably dead lost to make it rain spam + toxic damage, but i figured no way chris would do that.
volt switch into marisa was played, i moonblasted and dodged fire blast, i yapped for some time in touhoumons cord about the ensuing endgame if fire blast hit and kaguya died (i was pretty sure it came down to damage rolls, though thinking it over once again chris had really good chances if they clicked fire blast vs komachi rather than dying to lor recoil on recovers). i mystical fired the second turn cause i forgot i had unaware, but chris didn't see the fire blast into komachi line (which was present in the actual position as well, despite the extra damage on marisa) and missed the ~15% roll to kill, so i was healthy enough to beat chimata and won.
holy shit lol
writing reviews has been scientifically proven to improve future winrate
lbn vs fiish both sides went into this game looking to brawl. we are not seeing any passive mons, we're barely even seeing any utility mons, both players have rocks (suika for lbn, kaguya for fiish) but it's tough to say whether either one will even have time to go for them. i would probably give the matchup edge to lbn because scarf flan will be super devastating and the fiish psyspam idea runs into 2 steels + flan + misty surge suika (though suika herself is hardly doing anything besides catching out a reisen volt switch). still fiish has a lot of play with kogasa and vivit, and it's not like the psychics are completely stonewalled, patchouli will always be doing huge damage to whoever comes in.
shinmy lead makes a lot of sense from lbn, sukuna beats all 6 from full hp, you can even dynamax on patchy if you want. fiish leads kogasa which feels a bit odd to me, kogasa is a really important mon and i'd want to keep her in the back to get opportunities later. as for what the kogasa set is, we could be looking at band or some other pivot, cause the psyterrain means sd aqua jet ideas are a little silly, but i don't think you have enough time to pivot around in the early game, you need to start getting damage on things as soon as possible. i would probably just have led one of the psychics, of course you don't want to run into flan but the beginning of the game is her weakest point and you should be able to handle her and get your own initiative going with like kaguya.
we see t1 hard switch (!) from fiish into vivit, which then manages to 1v1 the 3atks chesto rest shinmy thanks to lbn overpredicting and clicking spirit break initially on what i guess was hard patchouli predict, followed by a fortunate missile burn on sacred sword. interestingly lbn chooses not to dynamax on the kill turn, wondering if this was a mistake or if they wanted to prevent something like kogasa sd (assuming scarf flan + non-scarf chimata), though i think youre probably fine there with gigaton -> spirit break -> go to chimata and you either live a wave crash (assuming physdef) or kill them with recoil (if they go to +4). if it was some weirdo chimata spread then understandable play though.
lbn revenges with flan who reveals a moldy special set, potentially not even scarf at all, who clicks searing shot for a pitiful 20% into kogasa. assuming max spa flan, this means kogasa is either very bulky (like, probably more than even max hp) or av, both of which are pretty radical but of the two i would be more inclined to assume av. lbn doesn't want to auto-lose to sd so they go chimata on uturn. it takes 3%, confirming that this chimata has at least some physdef investment, as 0 atk kogasa does min 4.2% to no bulk chimata. we also see leftovers revealed, meaning no scarf.
the rabbit arrives and clicks volt switch for only 50%, meaning we're probably looking at full spdef chimata. rather than recovering, lbn volt switches themselves (good decision) on the vivit to bring in flan, who reveals scarf and kills off the vivit with searing shot. 5-5, but kogasa is in now and nobody is left to take wave crash. flan is invaluable psy immune + speed control for lategame, so lbn chooses to sacrifice chimata and fiish uturns, which i think is definitely wrong. sure, patchouli gets in, but even with the kill she's much easier to revenge, while kogasa can kind of just uturn on everything slower and beast on hatate and flan. lbn can also just deny patchy a kill by correctly predicting blue flare and going flan, which is what happens in the game.
here lbn has the option to barrage for a kill and damage on everything and the option to searing shot (stupid, but if you burn kogasa the game is over); rather than either of these, they choose the midground and go chimata. a little fancy, seeing how you're just putting off the gameplan against kogasa, but i understand wanting more hp on chimata (esp with vivit now removed) and you're still a tempo ahead if kogasa comes in, which is what happens. fiish goes back to the bunny, but rather than recovering lbn actually goes to suika to get rocks.
without a doubt this is, like, the only thing suika ever does in the position, but it will make a huge difference. however, fiish chooses to go kaguya and get their own rocks, which will be massively limiting against flan. both sides dance around for a bit after this, with chimata finding an opportunity to heal and kogasa revealing boots. eventually, fiish doubles into patchouli on chimata and kills her off with blue flare. this is huge for fiish, as with chimata gone, kogasa looks insanely strong, though there are still resources for lbn in the form on hatate and iku.
iku comes in, revealing boots, and rapid spins on the reisen switchin. i think fiish absolutely shouldn't have switched out here, patchy never ever gets another opportunity (except against suika but like, who cares about her) and you can 2hko through multiscale with moongeist beam and then clicking mist ball when iku is below half. instead reisen is inexplicably brought in to refresh psyterrain, then kogasa bravely comes in to defog (didnt even know she got that) while lbn hard switches into hatate. fiish brings in remi to try and stop her from setting up, but it's instead a more sober boots attacker set that gets in 83% with shock wave and switches out on crunch (scared of scarf, which was never confirmed or denied).
fiish doesn't have an electric resist at this point, so despite being a mon up the squad looks like it's almost crumbling to shock wave, though iku reveals revelation dance, meaning she's actually a no electric move set that gets hard walled by kogasa (a little bit sketchy to use revdance on a misty surge team). the next few turns are kind of stupid, lbn is trying to bait fiish into committing and clicking play rough on a hatate switch, which eventually happens and remi is sacrificed.
here you can go to patchy or reisen. both mons get revenged by flan; the difference is that reisen is prediction-reliant, and patchy needs hp to beat hatate in the endgame. fiish chooses reisen and hits the prediction, slamming suika with specs freezing glare and removing the most fraudulent defensive piece in the position (though even fraudulent pieces are relevant in a war of sacrifices).
lbn goes flan and fiish takes two forbidden barrages with kogasa before clicking play rough for the kill. at this point, things look pretty much decided in fiish's favor as kaguya, reisen, and patchy can each 1v1 one of the remaining mons. lbn reveals uturn hatate (WHY was this not clicked against reisen earlier???????) but there are too many mons with too many hp and the game ends.
pretty nice game, felt like it kept going back and forth. i think lbn definitely should've gone suika against vivit in the early game, shinmy is just always so threatening and you don't need suika for anything else. cool sets also, i really like rest shinmy, aoa hatate, and spdef kogasa, though idk how new those are.
solrock vs tony cirno snow mirror, with chilly reception youmu for solrock and letty for tony. both sides have also invested in defensive cores, with kanako and hina from solrock's side and suwako + shinmy + tenshi from tony. solrock has the weirdos tewi and seiga, it's not entirely clear what they do or why they're here. i would give the matchup advantage to tony because solrock's team is just super frail and i can see it going down super easy after the kanako + hina core collapses, which will happen eventually, while i don't think tewi seiga and cirno are getting it done vs shinmy + suwako + multiple revengers.
tony leads letty vs youmu and just clicks veil t1, icy rock sacred sword wouldn't even have 2hkod full physdef letty, this mon is crazy. solrock brings in hina, trying to get damage on the shinmy with fire blast, but tony goes tenshi instead and doubles to cirno on the kanako switch.
at this point i think tony already has a huge lead, solrock has no real ice resist and veil is a massive game-changer, most of solrock's resources are fast, offensive mons that hate not being able to actually kill things.
av hina takes a blizzard for 37, tony goes into tenshi again (seemingly unafraid of mortal), but takes a fire blast burn. veil also wears off and letty is revealed to be neither icy rock nor light clay, weirdly. youmu comes in on sword of hisou eq for 40, scares away the tenshi, and receptions into the hina on the letty switchin. i don't really understand this play, feels like seiga should be the one coming in here if you want damage. suwako comes in and tony once again gets momentum, getting in shinmy on a tewi switchin. there's nothing resembling a shinmy answer on solrock's team; kanako looks the most like one, so she's brought in and subsequently dies to ice hammer.
i won't go into detail on the rest of the game as shinmyoumaru unceremoniously kills every remaining mon and there isn't a lot solrock can do. seiga tries revbless but it doesn't really do anything. letty is also revealed to be eject button which (with apologies to tony) is completely counterintuitive in my opinion cause it means you take chip early, have to come in more times (maybe on rocks), and as a result barely ever get to click veil. it only really makes sense if you win by getting cirno in asap vs no blizzard resist.
overall not a lot to say here, in retrospect there was pretty much nothing that could've been done against shinmy. happens. i do hope to see tewi and seiga being used in future weeks, they have some cool things going on with them
also brick break youmu won, stay woke
fififlutters vs qt only matchup of the week that can't really be called a mirror, fifi has a very employed balance while qt has setup spam likely with dd iku. impossible to say on preview who has the better matchup, as a lot depends on fifi's sets (easy way to say i dont know the meta very well)
fifi leads scarf rumia into the screens ran and knocks the light clay, which is very good for her though she'll still need to be careful of the various demons in qt's arsenal. sash sd momiji comes out first (i think the 2nd knock wasn't fifi's best play), bites the physdef kanako repeatedly (hungry??), and dies to multiple earthquakes. ran is then sacrificed for reflect; fifi had a window to recover or do something else here, but eq makes sense.
eternity comes in next and fifi clicks hurricane for a crisp 99%, then fifi sacks mokou to hurricane and straightforwardly revenge kills with alice. mokou being gone makes enoko a decent mon at the very least, but qt has also lost two mons without dealing any damage to the majority of fifi's team, and their screens are also gone. iku comes in next but i feel like fifi should be able to handle her by attacking with alice and finishing the job with kanako. this happens, and byakuren comes in next.
fifi can either go for hurricane or try her luck going hard lily (im not sure what the lily set is so this may not be viable), she goes with the former and hits for 90% but then misplays by going hard lily from +1 instead of just sacrificing the kanako. i think she had a 100% win otherwise, scarf superpower rumia + iku + weakened lily should always beat lastmon enoko, though if it's something weird like no fighting move rumia + physical iku then you might be in some trouble. from here going hard kanako is correct, but it didn't really matter cause qt crit every move anyway and fifi lost all her mons.
tough game, fifi positioned herself very well earlier on in the game and it was unfortunate to watch that ultimately yield nothing. that said, she did make liberal use of that sweet poison we call 70% accurate hurricane, and if either of the ones she'd used missed then we likely would've been looking at a much different and more double-edged position. i also think she would've gotten a lot out of rocks, but i can hardly fault her for assuming boots eternity.
fifi brought the only mokou this week and also opted for alice instead of the more standard shinmyoumaru, which i found pretty cool, she always brings neat structures that no one else is using. qt's team was also pretty interesting, the double slow steel definitely wouldn't be the first thing i'd think of on screens offense, but i can see them holding on for some time against creatures like cirno, though enoko and momiji are also both frauds that have 0 spdef, so who's to say really. i did get the impression there wasn't much qt could have done to get a better position, probably they had to challenge the scarf rumia with one of the steels rather than lose light clay, but this also would've been a big commit and likely would've resulted in rocks going up, which would be really bad. if iku was the bizarre dd/supercell/ascent/spin (unironically think it mightve been this), maybe it wasn't terrible though.
cityscapes vs chrispbacon 3rd playstyle matchup in a row, we have marisa balance vs marisa balance. im not happy to see both moriyas into my physdef keiki and 2 steels into kaguya, but chris's cb marisa counterplay is super dubious and i have this helpful mixdef komachi into the opposing marisa so i can't complain too much. i wasn't expecting shinmy lead cause marisa vs shinmy is basically a worst case scenario for chris, and i didn't think kaguya would lead to click rocks (figured one of the moriyas was the rocker) so i led rumia. rumia isn't pursuit trapping anyone this game and it isn't very good into marisa + kaguya, so i figured i could trade it off early game for damage and then kill everyone with marisa later.
i'm able to click knock and icy wind (!!!) into the kanako lead as chris goes for an eq and spike, then land a knock on the shinmy. this is basically exactly what i wanted out of the early game, my marisa and kaguya are now super opened up and i feel like the burden is on chris to stop me from just bringing in the demons and winning. keiki takes ice hammer but i don't really care cause keiki isn't a good mon here, i grab rocks and go back to rumia to get damage on the suwako, though chris also gets rocks so my marisa will be super limited.
shinmy outspeeds rumia and kills me, this surprised me at the time cause i had some speed (68) on rumia to outspeed uninvested shinmy, but in retrospect probably should've seen it coming, 0 spe shinmy is pretty rare. i don't wanna go kaguya cause of dynamax or keiki cause of it doing nothing, so i choose marisa and chris sacrifices kanako, which is definitely correct.
kaguya comes in and i start sweating, i figure it's def the standard offensive set and i don't kill that from full, so i decide to go to my slow scarf chimata and try to kill it with make it rain. fortunately for me, chris gets really puzzled by my spread and loses the kaguya. having this big threat gone feels like a huge weight off my shoulders, but i feel like i still have to be super careful with the positional decisions i make.
marisa comes in and i need someone to sacrifice and this is a huge decision for me. i really, really want chimata alive cause defog would be huge for me, but i don't see a definitively correct play either way. i deliberate on going to all 5 mons for some time (yes, even marisa) and ultimately decide on sacrificing keiki, she's *so* close to being a good mon (if she gets to recover and suwako vanishes she wins on her own), but i felt that the factors limiting her were too decisive, though it felt horrible sacrificing my only volt switch switchin.
after this i'm not exactly sure what to do, kaguya dies to 2 (i am not power gem), i could try marisa speed tie but then i also have to 50/50 flare blitz/double-edge vs stayin/hard scarf chimata, which i think shakes out to give me a 1/3 chance of grabbing a kill if chris stays in 2/3 of the time. i didn't like this at all, so i went with the third option, komachi. shackle was stupid, i keep forgetting suwako is earth eater and not water absorb, but w/e never punished. shinmy comes in, though, and this is really scary as thunderpunch will get a kill on its own. i figure i have to cut my losses and accept the fact that hazard removal + marisa isn't a realistic winpath at this point, so i throw out chimata, which i think was correct. chris sacrifices shinmy to marisa flare blitz, then kills me with chimata volt switch and goes to their own marisa.
now i have to risk this calc on my 52% komachi:
252 SpA Reckless Marisa Kirisame Light of Ruin vs. 252 HP / 108 SpD Komachi Onozuka: 188-222 (47.2 - 55.7%) -- 78.5% chance to 2HKO
the marisa MISSES and im able to recover and land a liquidation on suwako, leaving it on 9 after leftovers.
here i'm super considering going to kaguya, but i'm terrified that the suwako will uturn on the switch, after which there are probably winning lines with both marisa and chimata against my kaguya, and i just don't want chris to have another sacrifice in general. so i liquidation to take it off the board and it toxics me. against toxic switching definitely would've been correct, kaguya would kill suwako and then chris would've had to either lock into make it rain on chimata or kill kaguya with marisa; in either case, komachi would get to recover, after which i probably beat the last two. volt switch, trick, and light of ruin are all very scary individually, but the positioning is awkward so they don't synergize with each other to create unstoppable threats--if chimata volt switches into marisa, marisa dies; if marisa clicks light of ruin, i just recover, if chimata tricks me, i'm healthy enough to kill everyone with liquidation. there was a clever idea to kill kaguya with marisa, uturn to chimata on komachi recover, volt switch OR trick on liquidation OR recover, then (if volt switch/liquidation was played previously) volt switch OR trick on liquidation OR recover once again in the ensuing 1v1. hax notwithstanding, this would've been a 2/3 in my favor.
back to the game (only to divert away instantly once again), akira was saying i was dead lost if chimata came in to revenge rather than marisa, it was definitely a better overall line for chris, trick specifically looks very strong and kaguya can't come in on it because chimata is too healthy and i would lose my lo. meanwhile if komachi stays in, i don't really have a better line than trading it off against the chimata and trying to win vs marisa with kaguya. there was a secret resource in the position but i won't reveal it because that shit is prep.
anyway, marisa uturns on komachi, chimata takes a liquidation, here i spend some time deliberating on lines and ultimately decide on kaguya, i didn't actually have anything concretely calculated but i knew that if kaguya took trick it was very very good into the last 2, and if it took volt switch then i was probably fine with that, i get 2hkod anyway so might as well lock that in and force marisa to kill me. if make it rain was played, i was probably dead lost to make it rain spam + toxic damage, but i figured no way chris would do that.
volt switch into marisa was played, i moonblasted and dodged fire blast, i yapped for some time in touhoumons cord about the ensuing endgame if fire blast hit and kaguya died (i was pretty sure it came down to damage rolls, though thinking it over once again chris had really good chances if they clicked fire blast vs komachi rather than dying to lor recoil on recovers). i mystical fired the second turn cause i forgot i had unaware, but chris didn't see the fire blast into komachi line (which was present in the actual position as well, despite the extra damage on marisa) and missed the ~15% roll to kill, so i was healthy enough to beat chimata and won.
holy shit lol
this is the real SPL
Errrr I like poa
Damn, gonna have to raise the week review word count for the bingo.