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NOC Tracker Jailer Follower - Game Thread - Day 5!

Evie said:
I think this is what youre referencing? I dont think this means don’t vote people who arent in the discussion, i think it means we should have a discussion on good candidates to vote before just automatically voting des. And also there was not a whole lot of discussion day 1 so it makes sense to not be able to determine a better candidate from it
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And then not actually adding anything to the discussion afterwards. Just feels like saying stuff to say stuff and not adding anything of substance more than like 2 reads. Def wanna revisit them tomorrow
 
Pulsar is like exactly rand and the other candidate major candidate is des, who is, to my knowledge, still just there on account of being named des (and if des dies, that ever-so-slightly decreases my margins for Deltarune reference making /j), so...I don't really think either option's the best.
 
ImaginaryNeon said:
Pulsar is like exactly rand and the other candidate major candidate is des, who is, to my knowledge, still just there on account of being named des (and if des dies, that ever-so-slightly decreases my margins for Deltarune reference making /j), so...I don't really think either option's the best.
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well then suggest an alternative rather than doing nothing all game
 
well shite that sucks real bad. well at least we know the setup is 2, 3, or 4? i kind of had that sense when reading back that sometimes IC claims if theyre present after celever argues so 5 is less likely than rand, and also a goon dying implies its more likely a 3 goon setup.

anyway heres my thoughts on the readback

neon shitposting is nai
miyami's idea of policying des is like. fine. its not great or anything but its ok
i really like #19 from neon.
i like that peum pointed out that knowing the setup is better for mafia and celever continued to discuss it- that's something i was thinking about before the game and was going to ask day 1
#42 is very funny from jalm
#44 makes sense, i dont really think most people are gonna change their opinion on des without looking sus
love #71 from jal even though i agree with genisu
i enjoy nobody knowing what lhf meant.
#96 is kind of typical des but shes also right
im going to reread the miyami slot because she's kind of the most interesting slot for me. i disagree with #130 from jal wrt to cele, i feel like with last game's context this is smth he absolutely would do. neon being useful is nai imo (see 131). phoopes i dunno hes kind of whatever. idm scumreading him i guess.
#136 is insanely s/s to me i think
i like peum's posting a lot i think hes actively trying to solve and in a very similar way to last game. im townreading him rn assuming he has some explanation for not voting.
#184 i mean like. i agree but i also disagree. its weird. i don't really want to lock anything in but its very much a put a pin in it spot yk?
i agree with #196
#204 is basically how the game's went and is insanely accurate.
 
im fairly sure after thinking about it that followers/jk should NOT claim here because if we're in setup 4 then we're just letting them know who to roleblock if they chose that, and otherwise we're letting them know who to kill. obv this precludes the chance of someone having a redcheck. though i suppose a jk would not have a redcheck so its just followers who might have a redcheck
 
im also somewhat certain that no sort of like everyone claims their target and pretends to be a follower sort of biz is correct but i would like this confirmed by soemone more experienced
 
pulsar512b said:
im fairly sure after thinking about it that followers/jk should NOT claim here because if we're in setup 4 then we're just letting them know who to roleblock if they chose that, and otherwise we're letting them know who to kill. obv this precludes the chance of someone having a redcheck. though i suppose a jk would not have a redcheck so its just followers who might have a redcheck
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yeah I'd like to comment on setup and whether jailkeeper/follower should claim.

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Let's start with jailkeeper:

If we're in setup 2, jailkeeper is our only power role left and if they claim, that makes jailkeeper the next night target for sure. Only way we avoid that is if jailkeeper jails the mafia performing the kill if jailing takes priority over the kill (I think it should? but idk where the priority list is if we have one).

If we're in setup 3 there's no jailkeeper. Next.

If we're in setup 4 I still think jailkeeper shouldn't claim, because we have no protection other than jailkeeper jailing the killer which is a shot in the dark essentially. Would be a throwaway I think.

Basically, please do NOT claim if you're jailkeeper. As for follower, if we have one, that means we're in setup 3 or 4.

If you saw "Kill," I would claim. That's an easy redcheck and we vote the person out and are down to only one mafia left so I think that's worth it, even if we don't know if we're in setup 3 or 4. We then have a 1vs8 going into Day 3 which would be the biggest choke job of all time if we lose.

If you saw "Investigate" and you didn't target Evie, I would claim. Since we know Evie was Tracker and was dead, that means we're in setup 4 and whoever you followed was mafia rolecop so that's still a redcheck. Thus we can vote that person out and be down to only one mafia left, giving us another 1vs8 going into Day 3 in this scenario, which would again be the biggest choke job of all time if we lose.

If you saw "Block," I think I would still claim (but am open to hearing other arguments). At this point you could've hit jailkeeper or rolecop, meaning we're in setup 4. Ignoring the defenses from said player, call it a 50/50 whether it's a redcheck or you hit jailkeeper.
  • If it's a redcheck, awesome, we vote out the mafia and are in GREAT position, with only one mafia left and still having an anonymous jailkeeper. At the very worst we have that 1vs8 going into Day 3.
  • If you actually hit jailkeeper and we vote out the jailkeeper, this is obviously sucks, because then we lose jailkeeper and we also (presumably) lose you, the follower, next night. But even then... we're left with a 2vs7 going into day 3. We've lost all power roles, but thanks to the des lynch on day 1, we're still at very good odds to win. We could in theory mislynch on day 3 and 4 and still be in the game with a 2vs3 on day 5.
If you saw "No Action," that doesn't really give us a ton of info so I would lay low. But anything else? I would claim. Like I said though, open to hearing other arguments for the "Block" scenario.

tl;dr - If we have a jailkeeper, please don't claim! If we have a follower, don't claim if you hit "No Action," claim if you get "Kill," "Investigate," or "Block."
 
ImaginaryNeon said:
Okay, now that I'm actually fully reading the thread with full attention, I'll say that if I was actually aware that this string of posts happened, I probably would've actually voted des lmao.
Like, respectfully, what the fuck is this?
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In fact, that set of posts seems to have just went under the radar for all of D1. So DBD might just be spewed town? Probably a bit iffy, but, looking back, that push from des looks to be in incredibly bad faith.

Also, I just finished sheeting up to this point, so uh whatever, go my spreadsheet
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I'm gonna confirm with a readback but when I was catching up and reading DBD's posts I was like "these are so weird why are they so weird" and then I saw him vote des and des flip and I was like "oh that's why"

##VOTE: Dead By Daylight
 
is DBD the type of person to bus scumbuddy des D1? yes, definitely, and combined with his weak posting it all tracks to me

killing Evie is the counterargument to this because if you're hardbussing why would you start killing the town who hardbussed with you, it'll leave you exposed longterm, but it ultimately comes down to WIFOM
 
Peum gets a shout out scumread from trying to shut down mech discussion in a setup where I don't think that makes sense to do, and from doing the same thing as DBD which was essentially pre-flipping des but to a lesser extent than DBD
 
Dead by Daylight said:
My bad dawg, I’ve been on vacation today. Masons are inherently less valuable than the IC imo, so it makes sense that we should keep the most valuable roles secret to me
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stuff like this really doesn't make sense (masons and IC are the same role, the only difference is IC can claim whenever whereas masons have to claim while both are alive so they can confirm each other, but the optimal play for both is to claim D1 in most setups because they force scum to kill them instead of much stronger roles that can do things at night)
 
Dead by Daylight said:
##Vote: Celever

that was the worst string of posts I have ever seen from Celever jesus
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Dead by Daylight said:
the way Celever’s posting and voting the AFK and not the scumreads makes me think he doesn’t trust himself whatsoever, and I think that’s coming from him being scum and knowing he’s wrong
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Dead by Daylight said:
i'm not voting pulsar when the vote is this fishy

##Vote: des121 unless jalmont is up to vote Celever w/ me and we can shift enough votes
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Dead by Daylight said:
i find celever extremely fishy after that sequence of posts, and personally i'd hope pulsar wakes up next day rather than having an unresolvable slot
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Don't write this off as OMGUS because I'm noticing something important here and just happen to be involved

The string of posts from DBD here is what's called pre-flipping, where your posts accidentally reveal that you know the alignment of a player or players. DBD's not scumreading me for the content of my posts, he's scumreading me for voting town (pulsar, who I assume is town due to these posts) and not the scum (des). Obviously I didn't know which was which faction, there were like 10 posts yesterday and most slots didn't have anything particularly AI, but DBD seemed to.

In particular the "I'm not voting pulsar when the vote is this fishy" the people voting pulsar were Celever and phoopes, the people voting des were Miyami and Evie. Two people per wagon is already basically under the bar where you can reasonably start thinking about the alignment of the people on the wagon as a determinant of where your vote should go -- like, you're looking at 4/12 (not inc yourself) players in the game, AND voting for someone not included in the 4/12. At full rand odds, one player in the 4 might be scum, but it's a totally randomly plucked 4 and actually the fact that those 4 were using their votes on D1 makes them townier than average for this game so the maths doesn't work out at all for this to be something town even thinks to do. The only way it makes sense to start pre-dissecting alignments like this is if you know where the alignments are, and know that relevant alignments are at least somewhat represented in this group. Which we know is at least true for des (one of the vote targets, not in the 4 itself) but probably it means that phoopes is the third scum here (if I'm right and DBD is scum).

The main reason why this is pre-flipping is the agenda of the posts, though. The most rationale DBD gave for his entire EoD posting being about me is "he seems unsure, I think it's coming from him being scum and knowing he's wrong". The trouble is that's an insane thing to say D1 lol. A player as experienced as DBD should know that in a pretty dead D1 there's extremely limited readable content to work from, and so people who don't have the answers will be unsure. What about my posting was less sure than others'? What about the people who were here but never voted? We just came out of a game where DBD survived a long time against a scumteam who waited until right before deadline to vote every day, and won in large part because this strategy was a blindspot for DBD and he townread all the scum doing this. You'd think when DBD now looks for people biding their time and being unsure, he'd look at the people using the same scum tactic as what only just beat him, but apparently not.

This isn't the content of someone trying to solve the game. It's the content of someone trying to pretend like he doesn't already know the answers, and not doing a good job of this pretending.

I'm probably tunnelled here. Last two scum are DBD and probably phoopes (phoopes has done nothing to deserve this but yk)
 
Celever could you actually explain your last post in that string because I might be dense.

Say we had masons in this game (setup one). If both claim day one with no counterclaims, great, we have two confirmed town that we don’t vote… but if I were on the mafia side wouldn’t mind. Because two confirmed masons claiming means that mafia have two less targets in the pool to get jailkeeper. Sure on the other hand that’s two less targets to mislynch, but yeah I don’t see how it’s optimal for scum to kill them first when I think if I were in their shoes I’d rather find the jailkeeper.

Doesn’t matter since we’re not in setup 1 but I’d like to hear why anyway
 
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