CAP 37 - Part 6 - Threats Discussion

[Spammernoob]

CAP 37 So Far

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CAP 37 is a Dark/Flying Pokemon that aims to use the conditional move Beak Blast. Its ability is Opportunist.

In this stage, we will try to analyze which Pokemon sets could threaten or be threatened by us. Based on our typing and concept we will also decide which specific threats we should focus on later stages, and which ones should be mostly left alone. Then, the Topic Leader will organize them into a list, following this basic format:

• Switch in: The list of Pokemon on which we should be able to have a easy time switching in and then forcing them out, more than once in a game. This doesn't mean that we should be able to come into any of their moves, just their most commonly used ones.
• Pressure: The list of Pokemon that might threaten us, but should not be able to switch in easily. They should not be able to check us easily.
• Checks and Counters: The list of Pokemon should, in some way, threaten us. This might mean that they will probably be able to beat us 1v1, or at least severely cripple us. Certain Pokemon, in particular Revenge Killers might be included both in here and in Pressure, because once they switch in, they should be able to check us.

This threatlist should serve as a guideline for the rest of the project. However, this is not set in stone, and might change later if the Topic Leadership Team deems it necessary.

The following is a set of questions that we should try to answer during this discussion:

• Going specifically by typing, what Pokemon found in the CAP metagame will be able to comfortably give this project trouble?
• What Pokemon will be major threats to this project right off the bat?
• What Pokemon have the potential to become counters?
• What Pokemon may end up as threats, but must be contained or dealt with per the concept?
• Will the concept succeed with this list of threats?
• Is this list of threats acceptable for the project?
• What Pokemon will be threatened by the CAP based off of typing?
• Are these Pokemon targets that we want CAP to hit?
• Will these targets be "unavoidable" to threaten based solely on the typing?
• What direction must the project go in now that a set list of basic threats has been identified?
• What must be done in order to make these threats "wanted counters" or these threats be eliminated from counter discussion?
• Are there any Pokemon that we want to completely counter?

No individual post has to answer every question.

Guidelines:
1) Pay close attention to the Topic Leader during this discussion. Their job is to keep us focused and to bring insight.
2) Do not poll jump. Poll jumping is a serious offense in these threads, and you can get infracted for it. Poll jumping is when you discuss something that should be discussed in the future, like specifying a CAP's stats or typing. You're allowed to hint at such things to conclude a point or to provide an example, but do not centralize your post on a poll jump. Poll jumping hurts the focus of early threads and can cause us to go off on a tangent. If you're not sure if a particular argument is poll jumping or not, err on the side of caution and don't post it.
3) Refer to Pokemon by specific sets. This way we can clearly identify which specific sets we should be focusing on, and what specific characteristics makes us threaten or threatened by them. Adding complete movesets, EV spreads and Natures is recommended, but not mandatory.
4) Assume that Stealth Rock in on both sides of the field, unless otherwise specified. This can be changed by the Topic Leader during the discussion.
4) This are the exact definitions of check and counter that we will be working with:

-Pokémon A checks a Pokémon B set if, when Pokémon A is given a free switch into that Pokémon B set, Pokémon A can win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax.
-Pokémon A counters a Pokémon B set if Pokémon A can manually switch into that Pokémon B set, and still win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax.

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With all that said, I'll hand it over to earthflax for the OP.

 

[earthflax]

Hello all, welcome to Threats Discussion. We have our Ability, we have our typing, we have Beak Blast, and now we need to know: Who are our opps? Onto the questions.

1. What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?
2. What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into? This point has been a bit overlooked in recent discussion, so I’d like to see some thoughts on this especially.
3. Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?

48-72 hours for these questions, tentatively.

 

[chartung17]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?

The most obvious threats are Hemogoblin and special attacking fairies: they resist our dark STAB, they can't be burned by Beak Blast, and they can outrun us whenever we click Beak Blast (regardless of speed) and hit us with their supereffective STAB. Opportunist may help in some of these matches against Calm Mind users (assuming we have enough bulk to avoid a OHKO), but we're still at a significant disadvantage here.

 

[Anchor9]

1. What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?
In its current state, CAP 37 heavily struggles into Fire types (such as Hemogoblin and Mollux) and Special Attackers (such as Krilowatt, Ramnarok, and Stratagem) . Hemogoblin specifically ignores Beak Blast Burn and Choice Band sets specifically seem dangerous. Volt Switch pivots seems to also be very free, so Krilowatt and Shox are definitely problematic. Shox can do whatever it wants against the current form of CAP 37 without any punishment. If CAP 37 does not have some sort of Specially offensive pressure or some Speed, there is little stopping a threat like Darkrai from using CAP 37 as a free Nasty Plot.

2. What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into?
Currently it looks like CAP 37 will be solid check to Revenankh and Great Tusk. CAP 37 has a useful Ground immunity and punishes common moves like Rapid Spin and U-turn. Depending on its Speed tier and other moves, it can also possibly swap into and immediately threaten out setup sweepers like Gliscor, Ogerpon-W, and Naviathan. It has an ok matchup into Arghonaut but doesn’t appreciate Knock Off on the switch.

3. Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?

CAP 37 looks like it will be excellent at stopping physical setup sweepers and pivots. Depending on its Speed tier, it can check faster threats such as Ogerpon-W. With a good Speed tier and a good Special Attack, it can possibly swap into Nasty Plot and gain a dangerous boost, making Special sweepers like Venomicon and Gholdengo think twice before clicking something such as Nasty Plot.

 

[Cyaneedle]

1. What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?
   CAP37 (depending on the stats, might) loathe the existence of the many potent special setup-sweepers, especially the ones that choose to use Nasty Plot over Calm Mind, even if we don't have the stats, its relatively fine to assume that it'll suffer more against the ones that forego special defense boost for extra power. To contrast, outside of like, Darkrai, CAP37 does have a somewhat fine matchup against most of the Nasty plotters. Additionally, CAP37, atleast to me, seems almost comically weak to Hemogoblin, with its Dark typing making it weaker to the Goblin's Pixilate-boosted Extreme Speeds, and its Fire/Fairy typing meaning that it can't utilize Beak Blast to its fullest. At least it can sorta gimp Bulk Up sets. stay FAR away from the banders. CAP37 is also notably weak to Volt Switch pivots, one of the cons of its Flying typing. Though for the most part they are telegraphed enough for a simple switch to keep your CAP37 safe and ready to threaten physical attackers.
   
   
2. What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into?
   Dark / Flying is a very interesting typing, It carries a surprisingly useful kit of both Resists and Immunities, including the ever-present Ground type move, Earthquake and the less-common-but-still-notable Psychic type. Which means it can actually switch INTO some of the common Psychic Noise users (Excluding Primarina w/ Liquid Voice, and very likely Hatterene) and not only threaten, but possibly even buy turns to get ITSELF a free heal, or to position one of your more offensive pokemon.
   
   The Pokemon CAP37 can switch into is rather subjective to me, but i think it'll be able to switch in on users of Ground-type moves, STAB and non-stab, pretty well. Its typing is actually perfect for this, as it can easily force the opponent's hand if put into a bad enough position. With the right stat allocations, It might have a surprising amount of success on the "switching in onto Physical Sweepers" front too, given the possibility of it being able to outspeed quite a few notable Pokemon, including a few notable 90-99 speed Dragon Dancers and other Swords Dancers.
   
   
3. Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?
   CAP37 succeeds in something pretty simple; Make clicking contact moves a risk. Things as simple as using Rapid Spin or U-Turn going from auto-clicks to hesitant moves. It also appears relatively anti-sweeper (.. if the stats align correctly) with Opportunist letting it copy a threatening Sweeper's boosts, making it especially dangerous for players who are willing to risk the mind-game. if CAP37 pulls off a Beak Blast against an SD mon, unless you resist that move, your sweeper WILL be chunked. and that's incredibly useful for CAP37.
   
   
   extra note: I think CAP37 will also be a pretty useful Tera mon, especially with Tera Ground if it wants to stop a Volt Switch pivot in a pinch, that can easily turn the tides of a battle.

 

[Amamama]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?

Defensively especially bulky Fairy and Electric types such as Clef, Shox, Cresceidon and Zapdos are difficult for us as they hit us super effectively and most of the time are special attackers, which means we can’t punish them with a burn. They also resist one of our Stabs and aren’t super bothered by the other STAB if not backed by absurd power (though Zapdos and Cresc would for sure dislike Knock).
Garg is probably the most obvious counter to anything we do as we can’t hit it SE and it’s immune to burn and it just can abuse 37 to make progress in some way.

CAP 37 heavily struggles into Fire types

I don’t agree 37 heavily struggles into fire types. Yes we likely have a bad matchup into Hemo due to its fairy typing but other fire types are mostly neutral matchups that maybe lean one way or the other (Ram might be favored, Ceruledge and Mollux are probably unvafored).
Fire types do not interact with Beak Blasts Burn but aside from Hemo that is fine given their special attackers or weak to dark/knock

If CAP 37 does not have some sort of Specially offensive pressure or some Speed, there is little stopping a threat like Darkrai from using CAP 37 as a free Nasty Plot.

While darkrai isn’t bothered by burns a 100bp neutral STAB is far from giving free set up opportunities.

What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into? This point has been a bit overlooked in recent discussion, so I’d like to see some thoughts on this especially.

The two stand out switch in types for 37 are ghosts and ground types. While it isn’t a clear counter to any of them the ground immunity and ghost resist should afford 37 with good options to come in without much trouble (though status is still and issue.
I think its best matchup is probably into rev now that we have opportunist but mons like Tusk, Ting Lu, Pech and Gholdengo present solid if maybe a bit risky switch in opportunities. Another Pokemon 37 should be able to take advantage of is Glowking especially since it can deny Future sight pins.

it can also possibly swap into and immediately threaten out setup sweepers like Gliscor, Ogerpon-W, and Naviathan.

these are more difficult as switch ins even with opportunist bc you can only take advantage of boosts if your fast or strong enough.
Gliscor can play slow and stall 37 unless we hit ridiculously hard. Oger is tough to switch in safely and even if we get in on a SD we would need to outspeed or have stupid phys bulk to not be threatened by a ohko and Naviathan I’m pretty sure nukes us and we don’t even threaten it back. This goes for other phys sweepers as well. Stuff like Ceruledge, Kingambit or Dragonite might still be able to muscle past with just sheer power if we can’t outspeed them.

With a good Speed tier and a good Special Attack, it can possibly swap into Nasty Plot and gain a dangerous boost, making Special sweepers like Venomicon and Gholdengo think twice before clicking something such as Nasty Plot.

idt given our current build we have any business trying to deal with Special sweepers especially nasty plot sweepers. We might be able to take advantage of a calm mind maybe but most cm sweepers already have great matchups into 37 anyway.

Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?

I think 37 is deceptively hard to cover defensively which allows to pressure the opponent. It does however have mostly shaky switch in possibilities which makes it easy to wear down which is compounded by the reduce priority of beak blast.
Despite Opportunist this typing isn’t particularly geared towards stopping any sort of sweeper and I believe that stats and moves need to do some heavy lifting if it is desired to do so.
What we do well just with typing is incentivize neutral contact moves and weak resisted moves (knock/rapid spin) which makes it easier to actualize the concept. Especially since opportunist deters one option to click non damaging moves and as a Dark type we have guaranteed access to taunt which is another way to force the opponent to attack into us.

 

[Shock3600]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?

With beak blast, we should be able to excel at switching into physical threats, and forcing them out with the force of a burn. Pokemon that threaten that are going to be ones that can switch into us too easily, not letting us ever turn our threat into an actual burn, and physical attackers that can ignore the threat of the burn. Looking at the VR, Gliscor and Garg look to be two easy switch ins to Beak Blast unless we have an extremely high attack stat. Other switch ins are going to depend more on that attack stat and investment. Hemo, Cinderace, and Ogerpon are physical attackers that can avoid our burn and threaten our gameplan that way.

What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into?

Our typing doesn't do a lot for us into physical attackers. Our main switch in opportunities are going to be physical attackers that we can force a switch afterwards, in order to heal back up (if we have recovery). Any more detail I'm unsure on without stats at this point.

Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?

The biggest strength of our current kit is the ability to make progress once we are in. Our offensive typing is fantastic. I am at a loss at what else to write oop

 

[a fairy]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?
Special attackers come immediately to mind. For example, Darkrai can run coverage to threaten us with powerful SE hits, while not worrying about Beak Blast's side effect. Additionally, Darkrai doesn't rely on boosting to accomplish this damage, blanking the threat of Opportunist. SpA Dragapult is similar, though it lacks a common coverage for SE damage in exchange for a good threat of Wisp ruining us. Clefable, while not usually a big damage dealer, has SE STAB and even if it were somehow burned, by say using Knock Off, doesn't care about that either. I think Darkrai probably will end up forcing us out regularly, alongside Dragapult. However, I'm less convinced that Clefable actively threatens us out, pending stats, though I think we're unlikely to cause it to fear us either. OTOH, I think Opportunist gives us an interesting interaction with Hemogoblin, we're certainly terrified of ESpeed but if it tries to greed Bulk Up suddenly we're matching it - I do kinda think we can't realistically handle that.

What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into? This point has been a bit overlooked in recent discussion, so I’d like to see some thoughts on this especially.
I think setup, especially something like Ceruledge SD or Gliscor SD, Tusk or Rev BU, or even DNite can be useful opportunies (heh) to switch in. I also think Tusk especially is a target of ours, as is Ting-Lu - the former needs to carry specific contact coverage to take us out and wants to be clicking stuff like Spin (beneficial for us even on switchin) and Headlong (immune) if it has a free turn. Lu, on the other hand, really can only phaze us out, unless it starts teching Stone Edge for some reason.

Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?
We've done a pretty decent job of threatening a range of status moves with our ability. I feel like CAP37's not going to have access to or moveslot space for boosting moves, so nabbing a +1 Speed from a Tusk spin or a +2 Attack from a DNite SD seems real useful. This 'mon seems more and more to be approaching the mindset of "screw these specific Pokemon in particular", where if it sees a certain few Pokemon on the opposing team preview, it's likely to make those mon's day miserable, but otherwise it doesn't really interact with a whole lot of other things beyond its useful immunities and a decently high power STAB doing damage.

 

[Gekokeso]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?
People mention fire types for their burn immunity but honestly besides the obvious outlier in hemo the great mayority fo them aren't particularly keen on switching into either of our stabs, the same applies to ice types. That means the our only true threats are bulky fairy types, electric types, and a couple of rock types. The likes of Shox, Garganacl and Booster Energy Raging Bolt are our hardest counters, as assuming knock off is our main stab they can both absorb it as well as beak blast. Without assuming Knock Off, the likes of Zapdos, Creseidon, Clefable and Hatterene come to mind.

What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into?
37 is particularly good against the most available spinners and defoggers of the metagame, such as the likes of Tusk and Snaelstrom. Ground type moves are our easier switchins, but in general physical attackers will be an opportunity for us to switch in, given we are looking at a somewhat physically inclined pokémon.

Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?
Our offensive typing is particularly effective as making switching into us a rather annoying task, as our offensive combination isn't really well resisted by the threats in the metagame. Opportunist makes it so a lot of physical setup users are discouraged from setting up which can help a lot of pokémon forced out by them in the likes of Libra or Great Tusk.

 

[N-Manifold]

There is a somewhat wide range of physical tankiness that we can get away with in this concept, and it affects our matchup spread a lot here. In the interest of not polljumping, I have been running calcs with physical spreads everywhere from zapdos to pechurant and several in between, but I will comment on some of these differences when relevant.

Hemo is the obvious threat, unless we have astonishngly high physical tankiness we can't take two pixiespeeds, though doing like 50-60 with blast is not too difficult with 252+ attack, iirc we can go as low as 80 or so and still be pretty likely to 2hko hemo. Kyurem also presents a challenge, the special sets obviously shred us, but even ddance is a big issue, a +1 252+ beak blast doesn't kill Kyurem while a +1 icicle spear probably OKHOs
and doesn't make contact. We probably won't ever be doing anything to Graganacl. SD Gambit is actually an interesting case, it resists both of our STABs but really doesn't want to click unboosted iron head into a beak blast. It can reliably OKHO even pretty physically tanky stuff with +2 iron head and enough corpses in the back, but the ability to switch in and threaten burn is pretty nice and makes this matchup a lot less miserable than it otherwise would be. I think angling to be more annoying to gambit would be a good target. Lorb Zamazenta would hypothetically be a good matchup, but stone edge not making contact is very unfortunate for us here.

As for switch-ins, anything physical can't 2HKO cap37 is basically a switch-in, any Argh and Tusk are two good examples, but there are some others too. An unboosted Ddance Dragonite for example needs to get the read on ice spinner for the switch-in or it loses, espeed+spinner probably isn't enough without boosts and spinner makes contact. Ogerpon-W is an interesting case, it can 2HKO with play rough (or 1HKO off an SD) but it really can't do much outside of that. 37 can't do much against SD Gliscor if it's already set up, but it can very freely switch in on an unboosted Gliscor no matter what and then opportunist lets it even beat SD sets.

I have seen some talk of switching in to Ting-Lu, but as always the problem is that cap37 probably can't do much to bother Ting-Lu while Ting-Lu can sit there setting up hazards, chunking our health with ruination, and/or using whirlwind to force us out. We would need a pretty high attack stat for Bblast to even deal 30%, likely it is dealing more like 20-25%. Like many other bulky attackers with neutral coverage against Ting-Lu and no fear of EQ, it's not a bad matchup for us, it's just not a particularly good one either.

 

[Guingil]

​

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?

Fat Pokémon that resist our STABs and/or threaten us out with non-contact moves, strong attacks or faster status. Cresceidon , Garganacl , Clefable , Shox , Galarian Weezing , Zapdos , Raging Bolt , Ramnarok and Heatran blank us not caring much for our stats. While faster Taunt helps prevent opposing Gliscor from making progress with Spikes/Stealth Rock/Toxic, they can still stall our PP out and make progress with Knock Off/Facade while we can't do much back. Venomicon is weird as we continue to copy their Stamina boosts to no use, while they fish for Sludge Bomb Poisons or Hurricane hits. Moltres is a weaker version of this, and it can fish for burns. As I hypothesised in this post, I believe that these will make up the majority of our interactions in early- to mid-game, and we have a choice later of whether we want to make some progress against these Pokémon, or we don't do much here to really hone in our endgame strengths.

I believe the endgame is naturally the strongest part of our game, and since Terastallizing is most common in this stage, I think it is important to consider some matchup flips that can occur due to Tera. Common Tera Fire users like Revenankh and Iron Defense Zamazenta suddenly don't care about Burns, and it is left up to our stats or movepool to ensure (or not) whether we still win these matchups. Tera Normal SD Snaelstrom can power through with Beak Blast losing its supereffectiveness. Arghonaut can lose its Flying weakness and avoid the Burn while phazing us out with Circle Throw, although we're still mostly favored in that matchup 1v1. If we can bait out Hemogoblin to Tera on another member of our team, then we improve our own matchup against it, especially if we Tera ourselves.
​

What Pokémon and moves can CAP37 switch into?

Dragonite , Ceruledge , Lando-T , Revenankh and ID Zama seem like they can't threaten us much on a switch with their standard sets and interact with Beak Blast/Dark STAB/Opportunist. It might be possible to interact with some other SD users as well, but that requires other considerations in stats or moves and is not a given. Knock Off users (which also includes Revenankh, but Idt Knock is on a lot of sets) like Great Tusk , Hamurott , Rillaboom , Arghonaut , and mayhap Deoxys-S present switch-in opportunities with a bit of risk, as we don't want to lose our Boots but also resist the Knock, and we can then threaten them out.

Switching into Rapid Spin from Tusk, Equilibra , Snaelstrom , or Mollux is possible, but each comes with some considerations (Ice Spinner, Doom Desire, Toxic, Lava Plume/Sludge Bomb, respectively), and we don't particularly gain from the speed boost either.
​

Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?

Late middlegame to endgame is where CAP37 really shines. The probability of getting off Beak Blast burns increases due to depletion of opponent resources, and it can act as a roadblock to cleaners that use contact moves. Opportunist also functions against common game-finishing Bulk Up mons (with the idea of a blind switch to Revenankh being hilarious), or even some Dragon Dance or Swords Dance users, depending on how we build later.

But this is matchup dependent, so some stats, or tools which are already available due to our typing (Taunt), or are feasible to build around given Dark and Flying, can really help us make some inroads into other mons in other parts of the game (or go all-in on the endgame value at the cost of these) to make the most out of our kit.​

 

[Just A Shroom God]

What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?

I'm going to make what I hope is a comprehensive list of what threatens us, assuming only that we are a mildly bulky dark/flying with Opportunist running Beak Blast, generic dark STAB, Taunt, and HDB. Because I really can't imagine a world where we don't get knock off, I'll add an asterisk next to the Pokémon that our matchup changes with the move but for discussion, I will focus only on the traits we are guaranteed.

Threats

Can switch in on us - Gliscor, Shox, Hemogoblin*, Alomomola, Garganacl, Cresceidon*, Ting-Lu*, Clefable, Corviknight, Skarmory, Weezing-Galar, Moltres*, Zapdos*, Ramnarok, Venomicon, Mollux*

Mostly defensive mons. Taunt doesn't actually influence as many of these matchups as I thought, which is odd. Not all of these Pokémon are amazing, so the pool is smaller than it seems.

We switch into - Dragapult, Revenankh, Glowking, SD Snaelstrom, Kingambit, Zamazenta, Dragonite, Lando-T, Miasmaw, Ceruledge

I'm not including mons like Ting-lu that we technically can switch into, but can't do anything to. We have a couple of good switchins here, like Zama and Gambit, but a lot of stuff can threaten us with either knock off or status on the switch, which is why mons like Rilla or Tusk aren't on here. It's really a shame about our crippling knock weakness - this list would have tripled.

Threatens us - All our viable users of Knock Off, Ramnarok, Hemogoblin, Kyurem, Darkrai, Alomomola, Garganacl, Raging Bolt, Stratagem, Cresceidon, Hatterene, Iron Valiant, Zapdos, Caribolt, Krilowatt

This list is basically everything not on the 'we switch into' list with the one exception of pokemon that can threaten you on the switch but can't stay in, such as Ghold. All in all, especially with the knock off list, a LOT of things threaten us.

We threaten - Wogerpon, Great Tusk, Dragapult, Gholdengo, Ceruledge, Miasmaw, Hamurott, Hydrapple, Rillaboom, Ogerpon-base, Arghonaut, Zamazenta, / Latis, Iron Crown, Glowking, Kingambit

For these guys, if a Pokémon has an asterisk in the 'Can switch in on us' list, you can move it to here instead. A good long list between our item removal, our dual offensive typing, and the threat of burn.

I think our mon will be very momentum-based. We threaten a bunch of things, but also struggle to switch into a lot despite our great defensive typing, because we are crippled more than average by knock and status. Opportunist doesn't improve a whole lot of matchups, but it does give us some threat level even when we're not on the field. The mons that can switch in to 37 are usually fatmons with some way to hamper it, whether by natural STAB or by status/knock. Going forward, I think we should aim to lower the amount of mons that can switch into 37.

 

[earthflax]

I have one last question before we wrap this stage up:

What are CAP37’s edge cases? What checks are dependent on sets, game state, or other factors? What checks can intuitively have their matchups flipped based on the rest of the process?

24-48 hours for this question.

 

[N-Manifold]

A lot of matchups against slower bulky mons with recovery depend a lot on our access to taunt or recovery, such as ID corv, Alomamola in the endgame, Skarmory, and defensive Dragonite.

A lot of our matchups (e.g. against Gliscor sets with toxic) also strongly depend on outspeeding with taunt, and I think something to keep an eye on is whether we give this guy taunt and if so what it can outspeed. For instance, giving it 100 speed and taunt would give it an incredible matchup into defensive Glisc, who otherwise gives this guy a lot of trouble. Being able to outspeed Alomamola with taunt would similarly make it way more afraid of switching in against cap37, which otherwise is kinda wish fodder, even a 252+ attack beak blast on a 131 attack stat only has like an 0.1% chance to 3HKO against physically defensive Alomamola. I mean, it can also just scald so the matchup isn't even amazing with fast taunt, but it's much more favorable.

Lastly, Kingambit's matchup into us greatly hinges on how many attack it can kill us in, because iron head makes contact. This means that depending on stats, it can very easily end up having an ok matchup in the midgame and then get destroyed by gambit in the endgame. But this is a common situation for gambit.

 

[Spammernoob]

A lot of matchups against slower bulky mons with recovery depend a lot on our access to taunt or recovery, such as ID corv, Alomamola in the endgame, Skarmory, and defensive Dragonite.

We can assume Taunt, as per https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/redefining-moves.3721589/post-10445421

Dark

Dark Pulse
At least one of Crunch, Night Slash, or Throat Chop
Taunt

Flying

At least one of Brave Bird, Drill Peck, or Acrobatics
At least one of Hurricane or Air Slash

Gen 9 Universal Moves

Endure
Facade
Helping Hand
Protect
Rest
Sleep Talk
Substitute
Take Down
Tera Blast

 

[a fairy]

What are CAP37’s edge cases?

I think that pre- and post-Knock Off are going to be important distinctions in a game with SR up (a reasonable expectation). Sure, we can reasonably expect to be able to take on a hit from something like Zamazenta or what have you, since that's kinda a big point of CAP37, but that becomes way more difficult if just switching in knocks 25% off your health. I think knowing when to trade that Burn for Knock is going to be a big one for both players here. Do you accept getting something burned to ensure your Zama has an advantage when facing CAP37? Do you accept the Knock, hoping to rely on somehow getting Rocks to stay off the field as CAP37's player?

 

[Spammernoob]

Well, had a convo about this stage and spoo pointed out that technically every mon is dependent on our decisions later in the process so it's a good time for me to make a big post about mons LOL

I'll just grab some mons from VR, maybe down to B rank. I'll roughly order them from "Switch-ins" to "Counters" based on our current assumed tools, with big borderline sections. Of course, everything can change based on stats / movepool stage. I'll pretend tera doesn't exist, since it giga slants a lot of MUs (Hemo becomes instantly free w/ Tera Fire for example). I'll also assume Roost, since not assuming it probably deletes the entire Switch-in category and makes us a trade bot that needs to be pivoted in (this is a viable path, though it shifts some MUs more than others... don't want to think about it rn).

Note that stuff isn't really sorted in the categories rn, I just pulled them based on VR order. Also thoughts are very quick, maybe missing some nuance. Maybe I'll reorder it later, maybe not.

Switch-in (Safe Switch-in multiple times)
Ting-Lu
This mon realistically can only hit us with Ruination. Whether it's worth coming in is another question though, as if we don't do enough damage it just sets hazards.
Corviknight
I'm not sure this ever does anything to us except U-turn out for momentum on the switch.
Landorus-Therian
I'm not sure this ever does anything to us except U-turn out for momentum on the switch.
Skarmory
Different flavor of Corv
Switch-in BL (Safe Switchin maybe)
Revenankh
We win 1v1 w/o Tera, but Rev has weird options like Glare / Knock Off that can be annoying.
Gholdengo
Do we have bulk to tank +2 Make it Rain? If so, Switch-in. If not, Pressures. Moves up if we have strong enough Sucker Punch
Equilibra
Libra doesn't interact with us much anyways if we switch in. It usually clicks DD/Spin and leaves. We obviously ignore EP.
Slowking-Galar
Switching in to slow pivots is awkward. We also hate Sludge Bomb poison or Thunder Wave. Immune to Future Sight is big in this MU though.
Dragonite
We should switch in and 1v1 if we can tank +2 Ice Spinner (ignoring Tera Blast Fairy)
Deoxys-Speed
Faster special attacker but we have SE coverage. Most threatening set is LO Thunderbolt (probably 2HKOs), but LO Focus Blast is maybe more relevant? Moves up if we have strong enough Sucker Punch
Iron Crown
Similar situation as Gholdengo. Moves up if we have strong enough Sucker Punch
Latios
Same as Iron Crown. Moves up if we have strong enough Sucker Punch
Ogerpon
This guy should be owned unless CB Rock Tomb, Knock is annoying. If we don't give enough stats, might die to 2 Ivy Cudgels.
Rillaboom
Same as Ogerpon, but Wood Hammer makes contact.
Pressures (Can't switch in, opp pressured out)
Arghonaut
Obviously don't want to switch in on Knock. Switch into Circle Throw is bad too. Once in, annoying for Argh player to do much.
Great Tusk:
If Ice Spinner / Headlong were the only set, this is probably Switch-in BL, but Tusk can run Stone Edge and Knock Off, both of which are annoying.
Zamazenta:
Stone Edge is pretty common on AoA sets, which is what most Zama are in CAP. Zama obviously can't switch in though.
Ogerpon-Wellspring
We're probably not eating 2 Cudgels, but likely can eat one and OHKO back.
Snaelstrom
SD Snael we should beat unless our Physdef is poor or Tera happens. U-turn we never hit since Beak Blast goes after U-turn. Also can trade damage for Toxic, usually good trade for Snael.
Kingambit
Weird situation that depends heavily on stats, and if we get anti-Steel coverage. We always trade burn and force significant chip.
Caribolt
Bulk determines if we live Electric STAB, but we always trade burn.
Ceruledge
If we hit into Sash as Ceru SDs, we obviously lose. Otherwise, should win if we OHKO with Dark STAB.
Hydrapple
MU really depends on if Beak Blast + Dark STAB kills, if not we have to pray we don't get Beamed (or have enough bulk to eat 2).
Miasmaw
Can't copy this guy's boosts. It always explodes to Beak Blast though, unless we somehow die to Scale Shot (unlikely).
Malaconda
Snael situation, we get Parting Shotted every time but opponent has to eat Beak Blast on something.
Checks BL (Can't switch in, us pressured out)
Darkrai
This feels like a MU where we are trading 60% damage moves. Darkrai favored as it outspeeds.
Dragapult
Will-o-Wisp moment. Knock tilts the MU a bit.
Iron Moth
Similar to Darkrai, faster Special attacker. More borderline since no SE coverage. If we 2HKO and aren't 2HKO'd back, moves to Pressures.
Pecharunt
I think this mon might be fat enough to come out of a trade with some HP, and it likely outspeeds and cripples us with Toxic.
Tornadus-Therian
Similar to Iron Moth
Kitsunoh
Will-o-Wisp moment V2. Knock tilts the MU a bit.
Chuggalong
Similar to Torn-T.
Hatterene
Really depends on damage ranges. Beak Blast going after Dkiss is relevant because we can stack Beak Blast -> Dark move to get 2 hits in before Dkiss recovery. Hatt can also click Nuzzle (pain).
Stratagem
Meteor Beam likely 1-shots. Even if not, we probably don't 1-shot. Move down if both of these are false.
Walking Wake
See: every other fast special attacker.
Iron Valiant
Same as Iron Moth, but replace 2HKO with OHKO.
Naviathan
Faster Physical attacker that doesn't care about burn.
Checks (Can switch in once)
Kyurem
Likely has enough bulk too eat a hit, threatens with STAB Ice move. I think there's potential to move tiers, but not sure... Knock changes interaction vs Leftovers sets.
Heatran
It's Heatran. Threatens burn or big damage w/ Magma. Depends on if we can dodge, and if we click Dark STAB on switch.
Ramnarok
It's Heatran 2, with SE coverage for us as well. Same counterplay, click Dark STAB on switch and run.
Weezing-Galar
Depends on damage ranges of Beak Blast, threatens burn. No consistent recovery, so stuck w/ the other mons w/ no consistent recovery.
Krilowatt
Moves to Pressures if Knock or 2HKO with Dark STAB.
Raging Bolt
Forgot this guy, probably sits here due to no reliable recovery, similar to Kyurem but a bit more switch-in opportunities. We're likely not outspeeding this (which is relevant if Roost).
Checks BL
Gliscor
SD sets can troll w/ Knock Off and Facade. Toxic sets w/o Knock Off depend on if we have fast Taunt.
Hemogoblin
Likely depends on damage ranges of Beak Blast and if we have fast Taunt.
Alomomola
I think this should be solid-ish into us, Scald is very annoying. Beak Blast beats Flip Turn strats which is powerful though.
Cresceidon
Sadly Multiscale griefs us forever. Knock tilts MU for us, or Beak Blast doing >50 through Multiscale (unrealistic).
Garganacl
Depends on if we give Knock or Ground/Fight coverage.
Mollux
Depends on if we give Knock, or if we give enough speed for fast Taunt.
Moltres
Depends on if we give Knock, or if we give enough speed for fast Taunt.
Clefable
Depends on damage ranges for Taunt sets, but very hard to outtrade SE Moonblast when Clef goes first. Clef also threatens Knock and doesn't care about burn. Also if we're slower this MU is unwinnable.
Shox
Mostly ignores Beak Blast, mostly ignores Knock. Depends on damage ranges for Dark STAB and damage ranges on Volt (affects payoff matrix wrt. Taunt turns). Also see Garg.
Chromera
This is a bulky, fast special attacker. Maybe a bit inflated, without tera Boomburst likely 2HKOs so depends on if we can 2HKO first. With tera, surviving Boomburst might be a fool's errand. Sucker also loses to Recover.
Venomicon
Depends on damage range of Sludge Bomb vs. Taunt sets (serious volatility surrounding poison chance). Also depends on if we give Knock.
SpDef NP sets likely lose 1v1.
Zapdos
Combination of Moltres and Shox. Depends on Knock, access to fast Taunt, and damage output of Volt Switch.
Counters
Nothing goes in Counters for now.


At this point, we probably want to narrow down this list, and pick a few important mons that we lock down in some categories to guide future stages. eg. if we want Zapdos as a counter, we can't give CAP37 Knock Off. The most obvious targets are speed tier for Taunt, SpDef, and Knock Off access. Also, giving this Ground or Fighting coverage feels very dangerous. That being said, it's perfectly reasonable we have a very limited / nonexistent list of hard counters, as we are inherently slow (due to Beak Blast negative priority) so we will have to trade HP to make progress.


I'll also put this here since it's relevant for Taunt:
Notable speed tiers:
236 - Zapdos
226 - Gliscor
218 - Jolly Kingambit
216 - Moltres
209 - Adamant Hemogoblin
199 - Adamant Kingambit
186 - Arghonaut
170 - Corviknight
156 - Clefable, Equilibra

 

[spoo]

I think earthflax's last question and Spammer's above list have illuminated how many matchups right now are still in flux, depending on how stats and moves shake out. Even the best responses to CAP37 so far like cresc, clef, toxic gliscor, garg, and shox can technically be overcome if we give 37 the right tools, which is why you see nothing under the "counters" section in Spammer's list. Nothing actually beats us right now; the goal here IMO is to figure out what should beat us. This would set some boundaries on the stats and moves stages, focusing the process a bit and hopefully making it harder to create something OP accidentally.

I usually prefer a smaller and leaner threats list, because each additional mon on the list adds yet another set of boundaries, and ultimately we shouldn't feel too constricted during stats and moves. I'll take a stab at answering all of the questions earthflax has asked so far and just put together what I think a decent list might look like.

1. What Pokemon threaten the central elements of CAP37 and the interactions that follow from them?

2. What Pokemon and moves can CAP37 switch into?

3. Where does CAP37 succeed with our current kit in mind?

4. What are CAP37’s edge cases?

1. Pokemon that threaten us reliably - aka, what we want to preserve as counters

• Cresceidon, Zapdos, Garganacl
  • I think it's fine if we have tools to make progress into these Pokemon - we may even be able to beat them long-term with Taunt - but they should be seen as the most reliable answers to us

2/3. Pokemon that CAP37 wants to enter on / exploit / succeed against

• Revenankh, steel birds
  • You could probably put other mons like Kitsunoh/Argh/Snaelstrom here as well, but we do have to be wary of Knock Off and status. I really don't think CAP37 will have many 100% reliable switch-ins, and that's okay

4. Pokemon that could go either way, and we can let these shake out down the line:

• Gholdengo, Zamazenta, Iron Valiant, Dragonite, Deo-S
  • I guess this is the "pressures" category? Mostly looking at this as offensive Pokemon where there's a mutual threat, and the 1v1 comes down to stats, coverage, or correctly predicting a safe switch-in

------

Tera affects this list a lot, but also the boosts we'll steal from the opponent. Clef might be able to switch into us 100% of the time normally, but not if we steal an SD from Snaelstrom for example. Overall this is a pretty weird stage. When I TLed hemogoblin, I broke down the list into switch-ins, shaky switch-ins, stat-dependent switch-ins, "pressures us" and "we pressure", and C&C (our checks and counters). For Ramnarok, it was just broken into three categories of switch-ins, pressures, and C&C; Cresceidon had five categories with a lot more mons listed out; and Chuggalong's list just pointed out a few mons like Ting/Libra/Tran and strategies like Unaware/Priority. I don't think it matters too much what the actual list looks like, as long as it gives us a good idea of what to focus on in the next stages.