np: UU - Rain Drops Keep Falling on my Head

[Delko]

First off, how could one misuse a Hariyama lead? You fake out, then your next attack is straight forward. As Heysup said, Pokemon that setup... still get to setup, Ambipom still gets off 2 hits on you, Electrode still gets to Rain Dance, or Uxie will still get up SR and U-Turn out. People are using it because they like the idea of a non-standard lead. In all honesty, there are much better leads to be used.

As I see it, Lead Hariyama is like BellyDrum Hariyama, it looks good on paper but doesn't surmount crap.

I disagree. You underestimate the power of Guts powered Adamant Hariyama. it can OHKO - 2HKO almost the entire top 15 leads in UU.

Lead Hariyama is very effective against common leads in UU. Froslass for example can only get 1 layers of Spikes in and dies to Payback + Bullet Punch. As I said in my previous post, Froslass is also the spin blocker on those teams so the 1 layer of Spikes can be easily spin away. The only leads it cannot win against are Moltres, Spiritomb and Alakazam (and Uxie if it carries Psychic).

 

[Heysup]

Lead Hariyama is very effective against common leads in UU. Froslass for example can only get 1 layers of Spikes in and dies to Payback + Bullet Punch. As I said in my previous post, Froslass is also the spin blocker on those teams so the 1 layer of Spikes can be easily spin away. The only leads it cannot win against are Moltres, Spiritomb and Alakazam (and Uxie if it carries Psychic).

Just because Froslass is so easy to use that a robot could use it does not mean that Froslass users are all robots. Any decent Froslass user would set up a layer and switch out. Hariyama isn't setting up any sort of entry hazard stopping Froslass from coming back in either.

 

[Stellar]

The ability to OHKO / 2HKO other common leads means very little in general. Most of the time those leads are attempting to set up rain or Spikes. In the case of Rain, they will most likely be faster than you and will have accomplished their purpose. I realize that UU does not have the most 'knowledgeable' player base when compared to OU, but I would think that some of the more skilled players would know better than leaving Froslass in on Hariyama to die. If it was me, I would switch out. Froslass is great in the respect that it can come back in and set up Spikes at numerous points during the match if you play it correctly and don't sacrifice it needlessly.

 

[Delko]

Just because Froslass is so easy to use that a robot could use it does not mean that Froslass users are all robots. Any decent Froslass user would set up a layer and switch out. Hariyama isn't setting up any sort of entry hazard stopping Froslass from coming back in either.

You would be suprised how many Froslass lead users aren't expecting Bullet Punch.

EDIT: Yes I know you can switch Froslass out but it was just an example that it is a possible scenario. Hariyama can take on other Spikes leads as well (Omastar, Cloyster) but those can be switch out too.

 

[Heysup]

You would be disappointed how many Froslass lead users aren't expecting Bullet Punch.

Fixed your statement. However this still does not justify saying that Hariyama "beats" Froslass with Payback and Bullet Punch. We don't really care what bad players do. If someone is bad enough to leave Froslass in, they're bad enough for me not to care about anything they do.

 

[Amake]

You would be suprised how many Froslass lead users aren't expecting Bullet Punch.
.

But its so obvious..

 

[Stellar]

I think the problem here is that we are using two different player bases to define 'effective'. Lead Hariyama may very well be effective against most of the players on the UU ladder. I would assume that this results more from their lack of skill than the set's effectiveness. Most 'good' players (read: Heysup, Synre, ToF, etc.) would not allow Hariyama to accomplish what you are saying it accomplishes.

I really wanted to quote the post someone made about only making arguments that take into account the 'highest level of competitive play' (I think it may have been ToF or whistle.) but I couldn't find it. Oh well.

 

[Delko]

I think the problem here is that we are using two different player bases to define 'effective'. Lead Hariyama may very well be effective against most of the players on the UU ladder. I would assume that this results more from their lack of skill than the set's effectiveness. Most 'good' players (read: Heysup, Synre, ToF, etc.) would not allow Hariyama to accomplish what you are saying it accomplishes.

I really wanted to quote the post someone made about only making arguments that take into account the 'highest level of competitive play' (I think it may have been ToF or whistle.) but I couldn't find it. Oh well.

I understand what you are trying to say but then we might as well change the strategy dex here on Smogon. I know that these 'good players' are not falling for the Payback + Bullet Punch combo (believe me I fought Synre, or Teifu as he is called on Shoddy a couple of times and he did predict my obvious moves) but 'other good players' can use that to their advantage. After Payback you could go for Close Combat because your opponent predicts Bullet Punch and goes their (let's say) Arcanine only to take serious damage from Close Combat.

What I'm trying to say is that good players will not always go for that Payback + Bullet Punch combo but that they predict their opponent to switch (because they predict the Bullet Punch) and handle accordingly.

 

[Lemmiwinks MkII]

I simply cannot imagine using any lead except for a Choice Scarf Sleep user at this point, Venusaur being my main choice.

I mean, without it, you let Rain set up, you let Froslass set up one layer at least, you let bulky Pokemon set up, etc. I really cannot imagine using a lead such as Hariyama or even Spiritomb and get lol'd at by Rain Dance and Froslass users (Sash leads don't really care about either; they get a layer and switch out while you're not setting up any hazards to stop them from coming back in later).

If you want to stop set up, you basically need to use something like Scarf Venusaur. This is why I hate the Froslass metagame....and while Rain isn't "that" big of a problem, it makes it even more restrictive.

And it's actually 37.5% to Sleep Froslass when factoring in misses. Are you seriously going to risk that?

These two points are quite ironic when you put them together, and here's why.

Sleep lasts for 1-4 turns with an even probability distribution. With a faster sleep, one 'fast asleep' message occurs before the end of the turn. The scarf sleeper then has to switch out to something else, after which another message occurs. In order for the strategy to be successful, the opposing Pokemon has to sleep for 3-4 turns, but this only has a 50% probability of occurring.

Therefore when accounting for accuracy, the probability of success is: 37.5%. The same as for Jumpluff vs. Froslass if both run max speed. It is actually somewhat lower overall in both cases if allowing for the possibility of opposing Choice Scarf or Lum Berry use.

 

[Heysup]

These two points are quite ironic when you put them together, and here's why.

Sleep lasts for 1-4 turns with an even probability distribution. With a faster sleep, one 'fast asleep' message occurs before the end of the turn. The scarf sleeper then has to switch out to something else, after which another message occurs. In order for the strategy to be successful, the opposing Pokemon has to sleep for 3-4 turns, but this only has a 50% probability of occurring.

Therefore when accounting for accuracy, the probability of success is: 37.5%. The same as for Jumpluff vs. Froslass if both run max speed. It is actually somewhat lower overall in both cases if allowing for the possibility of opposing Choice Scarf or Lum Berry use.

How does this even apply? We were comparing Jumpluff versus Froslass as a lead. Venusaur a) outspeeds Froslass with a Scarf, and b) can survive an Ice Beam. Also any of your logic (if you can call it that) that you just applied can be applied to Froslass and be Less than HALF as good for Jumpuff because their Sleep Powder lasts the same amount of time against Froslass. Jumpluff is going to be switching out too.

Second, the strategy is "Sleep them to stop immediate set up and start putting pressure on them", not "Sleep then then switch out, and wait for them to wake up while you pick your nose and eat it". If I land a Sleep on Froslass, I can go to Moltres (for example) and if he stays in he has approximately 25%(?) chance of waking up (can wake up on turn 2, 3, 4, or 5? I feel that my math is wrong but whatever), and even if he did wake, he would be put the at a disadvantage.

So please explain how any of that applies to anything if it does at all.

 

[Thund91]

Just because Froslass is so easy to use that a robot could use it does not mean that Froslass users are all robots. Any decent Froslass user would set up a layer and switch out. Hariyama isn't setting up any sort of entry hazard stopping Froslass from coming back in either.

And all users of Hariyama aren't robots either. If I believe that Froslass is going to switch out i'm gonna choose another move (most likely Close Combat cause it can hit pretty much anything hard). If it wasn't effective I wouldn't have made it my one and only lead on my Paramore team. And I find it a bit funny that Hariyama can handle your Venusaur lead quite easily. ^^

 

[FlareBlitz]

I love it when people argue good prediction on one side and not the other. By that argument, no lead can beat any other lead without pursuit, since it's possible to "just switch out" on a move that would kill you. It should be pretty apparent to anyone that Hariyama beats Froslass. "It can switch out" is not an argument against this.

 

[PK Gaming]

Well in my opinion Hariyama should never ever be used as a "lead", and the term "lead Hariyama" is misleading. Hariyama is good at filling it's unique niche on a team. However, the fact that it functions "decently" in the lead position means that you don't need to sacrifice another member of your team to be a dedicated lead. This is why Hariyama is a legitimate lead, not because it's "great", because it isn't, but because it's "ok" and it allows you to have a better core than something like Scarf Venusaur would.

This is so true. I completely and utterly agree.

 

[GMLW]

Second, the strategy is "Sleep them to stop immediate set up and start putting pressure on them", not "Sleep then then switch out, and wait for them to wake up while you pick your nose and eat it". If I land a Sleep on Froslass, I can go to Moltres (for example) and if he stays in he has approximately 25%(?) chance of waking up (can wake up on turn 2, 3, 4, or 5? I feel that my math is wrong but whatever), and even if he did wake, he would be put the at a disadvantage.

I recall you saying that a good Froslass player will switch out of Lead Hariyama's Bullet Punch. So why would you say "if he stays in" when a good player should realize that it is setup fodder? Would they be waiting for Froslass to wake up? Because that is a terrible idea.

 

[Lemmiwinks MkII]

How does this even apply? We were comparing Jumpluff versus Froslass as a lead. Venusaur a) outspeeds Froslass with a Scarf, and b) can survive an Ice Beam. Also any of your logic (if you can call it that) that you just applied can be applied to Froslass and be Less than HALF as good for Jumpuff because their Sleep Powder lasts the same amount of time against Froslass. Jumpluff is going to be switching out too.

Correction: Jumpluff is going to be 'U-turning' out, which either (i) breaks Froslass' Sash as they bring in a favorable match-up, or (ii) scouts the switc and brings in a favorable match-up for that. In Scarf Venusaur's case, either (i) favorable match-up comes in on Froslass with Sash still intact and no hazards yet down or (ii) a double blind switch occurs (i.e. the dumb option for the Froslass user) in which case it is a toss-up as to who gets the favorable match-up. So whilst Scarf Venusaur has the less risky move to begin with (even if Jumpluff is Sashed), the advantages for Jumpluff are greater if the strategy is successful, which balances it somewhat. Additionally, if the Froslass user predicts the Scarf Sleep Powder (they probably would), they could switch out to their sleep absorber then back to Froslass afterwards to resume the lead strategy. Any 'disadvantage' here can be equally applied to the lead-off situation in the first place, where you lead with the Pokemon you have out at that point. This doesn't apply to Sleep Powder / U-turn Jumpluff for obvious reasons.

I'm with you in a way though, I don't like the idea of Jumpluff as a lead-off Pokemon at all. It is just ironic that you're so much more in favor of a strategy that in reality really isn't that much better as far as the odds dictate.

Second, the strategy is "Sleep them to stop immediate set up and start putting pressure on them", not "Sleep then then switch out, and wait for them to wake up while you pick your nose and eat it". If I land a Sleep on Froslass, I can go to Moltres (for example) and if he stays in he has approximately 25%(?) chance of waking up (can wake up on turn 2, 3, 4, or 5? I feel that my math is wrong but whatever), and even if he did wake, he would be put the at a disadvantage.

Actually, the appearance of Moltres would be great news for the Froslass user, as it neither sets up stats nor hazards, and is easy to wall without hazards up, and they will because Froslass is never the Moltres counter for any team.

You're already having to play with odds that are only partially in your favor (~56%) by the time you have switched out after Sleep Powder. First turn there is a 25% chance of failure, after which Froslass can Taunt and get 2-3 easy layers while you're forced to switch. And after successfully avoiding that possibility, there is another 25% chance of Froslass waking up and Spiking on the switch, which is just as bad as the first scenario. So you get 'lucky' and Moltres comes in on a Froslass still sleeping? No big deal, Froslass switches out to a counter and waits to come back in with Sash still intact, at which point she has another 25% chance of waking up and doing her job. There is more than half chance of one of these three scenarios happening in favor of the Froslass user, which, if preventing Spikes setup is so critical to your success, is not a good thing.

I'm sorry, but you know how I feel about strategies with low success rates, and neither the Scarf Venusaur nor the Jumpluff strategy would sit well with me at all. There is very little between them as far as I'm concerned, which is essentially the point I was making to begin with.

 

[Heysup]

I recall you saying that a good Froslass player will switch out of Lead Hariyama's Bullet Punch. So why would you say "if he stays in" when a good player should realize that it is setup fodder? Would they be waiting for Froslass to wake up? Because that is a terrible idea.

Lemmiwinks explained it in his post, I just assumed people would "get it", my bad:

Correction: Jumpluff is going to be 'U-turning' out, which either (i) breaks Froslass' Sash as they bring in a favorable match-up, or (ii) scouts the switc and brings in a favorable match-up for that.

I didn't consider U-turn because that adds yet ANOTHER turn where Jumpluff can be outsped and Ice Beamed to death. It's still worse off. Much worse off.

In Scarf Venusaur's case, either (i) favorable match-up comes in on Froslass with Sash still intact and no hazards yet down or (ii) a double blind switch occurs (i.e. the dumb option for the Froslass user) in which case it is a toss-up as to who gets the favorable match-up. So whilst Scarf Venusaur has the less risky move to begin with (even if Jumpluff is Sashed), the advantages for Jumpluff are greater if the strategy is successful, which balances it somewhat.

Well let me start by saying that Jumpluff doesn't "stop" 100% of all non scarfed Leads like Venusaur. Venusaur can deal with Alakazam, Swellow, and most importantly Electrode. So no, it doesn't come anywhere near to evening out in the lead scenario even if it somehow happened to be advantageous for Jumpluff (which it isn't). You are not even comparing the same thing.

Jumpluff's chance to not die < Venusaur's chance to gain momentum. This is like you comparing your chance to avoid being hit by an arrow in battle versus your chance to get high ground (this example might not make sense if you don't play a game like Warcraft III, but it's pretty self-explanatory - high ground is good). You don't lose much at all in the second scenario even if you "lose" the gamble.

I'm with you in a way though, I don't like the idea of Jumpluff as a lead-off Pokemon at all. It is just ironic that you're so much more in favor of a strategy that in reality really isn't that much better as far as the odds dictate.

This would have been ironic if you ignore the 10 other reasons that Scarf Venusaur helps in the lead situation. Maybe.

The only thing that's ironic here is that you're comparing "Jumpluff's chance to die" versus "Venusaur's chance to not stop Froslass after 2 turns", saying that they are equal, and then saying you don't like strategies with low success rates. You're fine with high fail rates?

Actually, the appearance of Moltres would be great news for the Froslass user, as it neither sets up stats nor hazards, and is easy to wall without hazards up, and they will because Froslass is never the Moltres counter for any team.

Moltres coming in without Stealth Rock up is ALWAYS bad, and you would have to be insane to think that Moltres is easy to wall without hazards up. If you don't have 1 out of the 14 Pokemon who can "survive" two of Moltres's Fire Blasts or Air Slashes, you are losing a Pokemon. Just because it isn't "Broken" without Spikes does not mean it is easy to switch into.

You're already having to play with odds that are only partially in your favor (~56%) by the time you have switched out after Sleep Powder. First turn there is a 25% chance of failure, after which Froslass can Taunt and get 2-3 easy layers while you're forced to switch. And after successfully avoiding that possibility, there is another 25% chance of Froslass waking up and Spiking on the switch, which is just as bad as the first scenario. So you get 'lucky' and Moltres comes in on a Froslass still sleeping? No big deal, Froslass switches out to a counter and waits to come back in with Sash still intact, at which point she has another 25% chance of waking up and doing her job. There is more than half chance of one of these three scenarios happening in favor of the Froslass user, which, if preventing Spikes setup is so critical to your success, is not a good thing.

A few things:

1. Venusaur still has the option of using Leaf Storm.
2. ideally it would still only get 1 layer of Spikes. 2 if you send in something that loses to Froslass (a dumb idea).
3. Why is it when I'm trying to say Froslass is broken "1 layer of Spikes isn't even bad", but now you're arguing that it's "just as bad" as getting 2 layers up. While that doesn't really make sense (I did take it a bit out of context), it's clear that you were indeed saying that 1 layer of Spikes + Sash= 2 layers of Spikes which isn't the case, Froslass can still be Taunted, slept, or limited to 2 layers by priority.
4. I repeat: switching into Moltres is a big deal. Especially for an offensive team. If I said Blaziken or Magmortar would you be happier since "nothing" can switch into them? Moltres was an example because it's on "my" team.
5. Moltres is hard to switch into. Oh wait I said this already nvm.

Overall, I think you're making an invalid comparison and one-sided arguments about the situations that could occur. Yes, Venusaur "could" miss and let Froslass get a couple layers of Spikes up if the correct (and highly unlikely) sequence of events occur, however when compared to Jumpluff, Froslass will flat out OHKO it or simply set up over half the time. "% of gaining something good =/= % of losing something bad". The first one you don't lose anything, but you can gain something (usually just momentum). The second, you lose something but have a small chance to get it back.

 

[Stagnant]

...

To many scenarios are being tossed about...

Focus Sash Froslass vs Jumpluff:

Froslass should ALWAYS Ice Beam.
Jumpluff should ALWAYS switch.

Froslass vs Hariayama:

Lass can switch or setup a layer then switch.
Yama HAS to Payback, showing an early Bullet Punch is a no-no.

Hariyama vs Jumpluff:

Hariyama Fake Outs then switches.
Jumpluff U-Turns after Fake Out or switches before. Encore and Sleep Powder are to risky.


These are THE only scenario's. No ifs, ands, or buts.

IMO, Venusaur lead should lead off with an attack than Sleep Powder.

 

[GMLW]

Focus Sash Froslass vs Jumpluff:

Froslass should ALWAYS Ice Beam.
Jumpluff should ALWAYS switch.

I'm being nitpicky here, but Jumpluff should U-Turn, not switch. I know that's what you meant, but hey, that's OCD for you. :P

 

[SJCrew]

I'm being nitpicky here, but Jumpluff should U-Turn, not switch. I know that's what you meant, but hey, that's OCD for you. :P

They tie for speed, so Jumpluff is risking an OHKO if it makes any moves.

However, my opponents never seem to understand this, so they blame the speed tie losses on hax rather than their poor gameplay.

 

[Vrolok]

wow uu lead metagame is fucked. we should make a new thread for it since froslass and rain setups are dumb (read: unenjoyable to play against) leads.

 

[ZandgaiaX]

And all users of Hariyama aren't robots either. If I believe that Froslass is going to switch out i'm gonna choose another move (most likely Close Combat cause it can hit pretty much anything hard). If it wasn't effective I wouldn't have made it my one and only lead on my Paramore team. And I find it a bit funny that Hariyama can handle your Venusaur lead quite easily. ^^

This.

If I remember correctly, I battled you 2 times yesterday (I kept getting disconected) but as far as both matches went. Hariyama easily handled his team. ('pecially first match)

Even if the lead is scarfsaur, I'm pretty sure Leaf storm isn't a OHKO (Though Hariyama likely dies after 2 turns ó burn)

Let's check it.

Turn 1:
Lead Hariyama (252 Att Evs vs 56/min): Fake out 21.6% - 25.7%
Turn 2:
Switch
or
Leadmix venusaur (164 Spa EVs vs Min/min): Leafstorm 68.5% - 80.7%
(Note it can be sleep powder if you dunt run flame/toxic orb, but flame orb is usually (I say usually) the better choice in my opinion, 'pecially against jumpluff (Still rare but y'know)
Lead Hariyama (252 Att Evs vs 56/min): Payback 54.3% - 64.1%
Turn 3:
Switch
or
Lead Hariyama (252 att Evs vs 56/min): Bullet punch 21.6% - 25.7%
Venasaur dies
Hariyama dies as well

Bút, problem is, I'm pretty sure I don't use the now used set. Better check it up...




In my opinion, Hariyama is like Swampert. Without SR, Ground/water typing, Mixed qualities,
Ok, Hariyama is in many stuff not the same, but it's about the fact that Both are very usuable mid-game, and I'm not talking 'bout sacrificing (Hariyama: Status absorber and sweeper. Swampert: 'Mixed' semi-tank)

 

[Heysup]

I remember Hariyama doing good the first match, but that's because I was simply not expecting a "poor" type-coverage set without Ice Punch / Stone Edge. However it was quite easy to recover from, all I remember happening is that I sent out Raikou and it was 4-4 and you dc'd.

The second match I simply Leaf Storm and switched out to Azumaril and KOed your switch in, and eventually Scyther came out and.....you dc'd.

It is a good Anti-Venusaur lead, but you can really ask anyone who uses a Scarf Venusaur lead (read: probably only me) that Hariyama is really not a big deal to lose against. I carry Scyther (who is a flawless switch in now that I know you run Fake Out, CC, Payback, and Bullet Punch) on one of my teams, and Moltres on the other. Not a big deal at all really. I'm not even doing this to "prepare" for Hariyama.

 

[Lemmiwinks MkII]

Heysup, I'm just going to address a few key points about your last post and then I'm done on this particular topic.

All the "double switch" option would get for the Froslass user is the chance to be put into a bad match up AND put Froslass out of the lead position which means that entry hazards will not be down for the beginning of the match and risks entry hazards being set up while its not out.

Hence why I called it 'the dumb option'. I don't know who you're arguing with here.

The only thing that's ironic here is that you're comparing "Jumpluff's chance to die" versus "Venusaur's chance to not stop Froslass after 2 turns", saying that they are equal, and then saying you don't like strategies with low success rates. You're fine with high fail rates?

Erm, no, because they're the same thing? Low success rate = high fail rate?

4. I repeat: switching into Moltres is a big deal. Especially for an offensive team. If I said Blaziken or Magmortar would you be happier since "nothing" can switch into them? Moltres was an example because it's on "my" team.

If it's an offensive team with no dedicated counter then Froslass would probably stay in. The 18.75% chance that Froslass doesn't at least take Moltres down with her using Destiny Bond would just have to be taken on the chin and commence offensive pressure afterwards. But in more than 4 out of 5 matches that won't happen, and in more than 2 out of 5 matches Froslass will be given an absolutely free turn to set up Spikes, so overall momentum is gained in the long run.

Overall, I think you're making an invalid comparison and one-sided arguments about the situations that could occur.

You can argue with me all you want, but don't you dare insult me by claiming that anything I have said is one-sided. I have just stated the cold hard statistics, which are inarguable and account for both sides simultaneously, and then stated my own subjective opinion about such strategies based on these. Me favoring one over the other would be like me favoring Lumineon over Luvdisc as a rain sweeper. I don't bother with choosing the better piece of shit when I'd rather just avoid any shit altogether.


But on a more important note, when exactly is the ladder going to be reset? I thought it was going to happen after the weekend and I am eager to get started on the new metagame.

 

[Heysup]

Heysup, I'm just going to address a few key points about your last post and then I'm done on this particular topic.

Fair enough.

Hence why I called it 'the dumb option'. I don't know who you're arguing with here.

Would it kill you to read above it? I was explaining it to Lonewolf.

Erm, no, because they're the same thing? Low success rate = high fail rate?

Same thing, but different situations. You are trying to tell me that you'd rather be in the situation where you would "have a chance to die and gain nothing" or the situation where you would "have a chance to get early game momentum and lose nothing". That is where you're argument stops making sense. Would you rather be in the situation a) A chance to "not lose" a million dollars or b) a chance to win a million dollars? Yes, they're equal in value, but you never win in one situation and you do in the other.

If it's an offensive team with no dedicated counter then Froslass would probably stay in. The 18.75% chance that Froslass doesn't at least take Moltres down with her using Destiny Bond would just have to be taken on the chin and commence offensive pressure afterwards. But in more than 4 out of 5 matches that won't happen, and in more than 2 out of 5 matches Froslass will be given an absolutely free turn to set up Spikes, so overall momentum is gained in the long run.

Again, your probability doesn't mean anything here; prediction can't have %s put on it. I am not going to believe that if Froslass wakes up, and if Moltres for some absurd reason stays in when it does (it won't) that Froslass has an ~80% chance to take out Moltres with Destiny Bond. That's like saying CS Heracross will have a 25% chance to take out Salamence with Stone Edge if the Salamence user already knows that Heracross has a CS. There is no probability to apply here except for the initial Sleep Powder one, which, no matter how you slice it, Venusaur has a big edge in.

You can argue with me all you want, but don't you dare insult me by claiming that anything I have said is one-sided. I have just stated the cold hard statistics, which are inarguable and account for both sides simultaneously, and then stated my own subjective opinion about such strategies based on these. Me favoring one over the other would be like me favoring Lumineon over Luvdisc as a rain sweeper. I don't bother with choosing the better piece of shit when I'd rather just avoid any shit altogether.

You tried to put probabilities on prediction based situations (which I didn't even check to see if they're true if both players played exactly how you wanted them to), I would hardly call that statistics. My one-sided comment was aimed at two things: a) You're ignoring the actual situation that each lead is in and b) you saying that "no matter what" the Froslass team had an advantage without even considering that Moltres, a Pokemon voted 5-4 UU, is hard to switch into.

But on a more important note, when exactly is the ladder going to be reset? I thought it was going to happen after the weekend and I am eager to get started on the new metagame.

I am curious as well.

 

[Lemmiwinks MkII]

Would it kill you to read above it? I was explaining it to Lonewolf.

Ok, that was my bad, I misread the colon for a full stop. I thought you were telling Lonewolf to (re)read my previous post before addressing my post personally.

Same thing, but different situations. You are trying to tell me that you'd rather be in the situation where you would "have a chance to die and gain nothing" or the situation where you would "have a chance to get early game momentum and lose nothing". That is where you're argument stops making sense. Would you rather be in the situation a) A chance to "not lose" a million dollars or b) a chance to win a million dollars? Yes, they're equal in value, but you never win in one situation and you do in the other.

No, I am saying that I'd rather avoid both situations entirely. Never once did I say that Jumpluff was preferrable to lead Scarf Venusaur. Also, even if we ignore what I said above about the strategy having a (decent) chance of failing on the first two turns, do you honestly believe that Scarf sleep at the beginning of the match is without great risk? For example, have you never heard of lead Lum Uxie / Mesprit backed up by Dugtrio? I'm sure you have, I even remember you talking about using Mesprit in such a way before IIRC. I also recall Ex Point (GBA?) using the same strategy on me when I was trying out lead Scarf Venusaur (never again) with a Beedrill. Unorthodox maybe, but same principle.

And that's just the scenario that requires minimal prediction. There is every possibility that something like Froslass is backed up by Dugtrio too, and they see your move coming.

Again, your probability doesn't mean anything here; prediction can't have %s put on it. I am not going to believe that if Froslass wakes up, and if Moltres for some absurd reason stays in when it does (it won't) that Froslass has an ~80% chance to take out Moltres with Destiny Bond. That's like saying CS Heracross will have a 25% chance to take out Salamence with Stone Edge if the Salamence user already knows that Heracross has a CS. There is no probability to apply here except for the initial Sleep Powder one, which, no matter how you slice it, Venusaur has a big edge in.

First of all, if Froslass wakes up and Destiny Bonds, it will be before the Moltres user is even aware of it, and after the move has been selected. Secondly, Froslass using Destiny Bond in that situation (1 HP, sash broken) does not require prediction to work best for that situation. Either Moltres attacks and dies, or Froslass gets a layer of Spikes or a kill next turn. Unless what comes in is a faster Encore or Taunt user, at which point we are only talking about 2 or 3 Pokemon in UU.

And of course there is probability that applies after the initial turn, there is probability involved at every turn. No 'prediction' on your part is going to stop Froslass waking up on the switch-out turn (or the turn after) should the RNG dictate so.

You tried to put probabilities on prediction based situations (which I didn't even check to see if they're true if both players played exactly how you wanted them to), I would hardly call that statistics. My one-sided comment was aimed at two things: a) You're ignoring the actual situation that each lead is in and b) you saying that "no matter what" the Froslass team had an advantage without even considering that Moltres, a Pokemon voted 5-4 UU, is hard to switch into.

When considering early-game situations, Moltres is as easy to switch into as you choose. You are either packing a good switch-in or you are not. If the latter, the player is an idiot unless they have a good alternative solution. So who cares how many good counters Moltres has, or how close to BL it is? It makes no sodding difference in this case, either the player has prepared in advance or they haven't. No smooth gradient.

And yes, before you say anything, I did say I would stop after the last post. But I'm very bored / have little else to do right now, and sometmes I just can't resist this clash of egos we have on this forum. I know you feel the same, admit it.