Thanks, Jubiliee. You happen to know the answer to my first question as well? Repeated below.
For flipping pages, Smogon says "Do not count the journal's initial appearance as a page flip."
I have a captured Bibarel on the first page of the journal when the journal appears. So does this mean the Bibarel absolutely does not count as an advance?
Any page with the text "Caught ___" or "Defeated ____" will advance the frame, so yes it will.