Okay, this is getting sad, I need some help to relieve me of my paranoid feeling that I'm doing something wrong (even though I've done it before).
I'm trying to catch Naive Azelf, 30/31/31/31/31/31, which is on seed 8d17025b, frame 417 with a Naive Sync (which I got). I've now managed to hit my seed twice, and both of the times, after having caught Azelf in a Dive Ball (I'm so awesome, I know), it turns out the spread is 25/9/7/8/12/25 which is on frame 414, 418, 421.
The journal flips, as I calculate them (([target frame]-[number of roamers]-[Frame of Legend])/2) so since I have zero roamers it becomes (417-1-0)/2, 208 flips. I were being very careful both times, so it strikes me odd that I missed it both times, although it is possible that I hit the 421 frame one by counting 2 times wrong.