NOC Great Idea Mafia-Game Over! Mafia, vonFiedler, and More Cowbell win!

[nitrox116]

Walrein: Keep in mind that if Celever was a member of mafia, lynching you or LightWolf, who have spoken out against him, would be an indicator that he's a mafia.

Obbmud: One thing I'm skeptical about, like Walrein mentioned, was that Ullar was an obvious lynch. We knew he wasn't village-aligned, LW made a good argument for lynching him... I don't think that correlating votes there could be tied easily to the mafia members.

 

[Obbmud99]

On a side note, we are on MYLO. We can't afford to make any more mistakes. We need to get a mafia member. Based on the numbers of the village, there are 11 voters. If we mislynch tonight, and the mafia kills a village, there will be 9 (majority 5). This leads me to believe that there are 5 mafia, and 6 village/neutral. We need to work together to win this. This is our last chance to get a good vote, so lets get a mafia scum.[/quote]
If there was 4 mafia, then there would be 2 neutrals after a mislynch. ( 4M + 3V + 2N)
If there was 3 mafia, then there would be 4 neutrals after a mislynch. ( 3M + 2V + 4N)
I don't think that there are 5 neutrals in this game, as then neutrals would make up 1/3 of the game. To me this seems overkill, but I would like to hear what you guys think would be the most likely arrangement for this game.
Due to statistical probability, (21% of the roles are neutral, 24% are mafia including traitor, and 55% village), the probability that this game would likely lead to a player outcome would look something like this: 15*(.21) = 3.15 = Neutral, 15*(.24) = 3.6 = Mafia, 15*(.55) = 8.25 = V. With this, I would think there would be... 3 N, 4, M and 8 V.
3 Neutrals
4 Mafia
8 Villagers

If we account the lynches that have taken place, that would leave us with...
2 Neutral
4 Mafia
5 Village

A mislynch and a proper mafia kill at this point would have left us with a mafia haveing a majority. I think this is the most likely role count. The low number of neutrals works well too because there has only been one kill a night for two nights, so that means that we have no serial killers (unless a serial kills was being camped by a doctor both nights, which i doubt.). I think that our remaining neutrals are lovers, politicians, or more pacifists.

Obbmud: One thing I'm skeptical about, like Walrein mentioned, was that Ullar was an obvious lynch. We knew he wasn't village-aligned, LW made a good argument for lynching him... I don't think that correlating votes there could be tied easily to the mafia members.

The interesting part about this is that lightwolf wasn't on the vote he was promoting. This might have been because he was expecting to get killed that night, and wanted to show who he was suspecting. The other possibility was that he was trying to avoid the vote count judging that I had done on the first post. What do you have to say LightWolf ?

I think that they might have killed cancerous to remove him from the equation because we know he is village. I am shocked they didn't kill you nitrox.

 

[nitrox116]

I think you're misunderstanding something, obbmud. Shinyskarmory said that if we mislynch, the town will lose majority. He never said that the mafia will gain majority. If your prediction was true, the village would already have lost majority (6 neutral/mafia and 5 town).

To be honest I'm equally confused about their cancerous kill. Perhaps they thought that if there was a bodyguard/doctor, he or she would be more likely to shield me than Cancerous.

 

[starwarsfan]

What are your thoughts on:
-Celever
-The deaths so far
-Your scumreads

Re: Celever: He has been way posting more than anyone else I think. To me that seems scummy, like he's trying way too hard to seem village. The Cancerous kill to me actually supports him being mafia: a mafia that didn't include him would/might have killed LW to make Celever look very suspicious. Probably I'm overthinking this though.

Re: Deaths: BT is a namekill. For everyone he suspected, someone else suspected them more. He also did nothing to reveal his role that I can see. Cancerous... I don't really understand, for reasons that have already been mentioned.

Re: Scumreads: I've already talked about Tesung and I just mentioned Celever.

To get onto voting, I am going to No Lynch. We are at MYLO. We cannot lynch incorrectly. Until there is someone who I'm 95% sure is scum I will keep my vote this way.

 

[nitrox116]

Starwarsfan, you do realize that if we No Lynch today, then we'll just get into a LYLO and we'll be worse than where we started? It would be better to wait to vote before voting No Lynch.

However, we should definitely be careful not to lynch anybody prematurely.

 

[starwarsfan]

Starwarsfan, you do realize that if we No Lynch today, then we'll just get into a LYLO and we'll be worse than where we started? It would be better to wait to vote before voting No Lynch.

What I was thinking is that if we have some kind of info role left after BT's death he could find a mafia. IDK if that's a stupid strat though.

 

[spiresquire]

So! I got my computer back a little earlier than I expected, and now I can tear into people's quotes like you people have been doing for the past few pages. Starting with my own posts! Yaaay! :D But seriously, I was looking through a few of them right after deadline, and I think I might need to correct myself on a few shaky points I made in my last post, which was mostly rushed for whatever reason. Am I being too hard on myself? Probably. :T

...since cc's in this game seem pretty impossible...

I worded this so poorly. :T If anyone didn't exactly know what I meant by this, I really meant to say "since cc's in this game seem pretty difficult to disprove" rather than "impossible" to utilize. Meaning that outside of a few select roles, most have several slots on to the list that can be repeated, which actually makes fakeclaiming easier, I think. :U

bodygaurd/safegaurd

There are no safeguards in this game. Also, apparently I can't spell "guard" to save my life. I think I meant to say doctor in this part? In the few games I've read, doctor and bg seem to be interchangeable, and I believe they are pretty similar, yes? Something rather minor. :T

I only voted starwarsfan to get answers. While I wasn't really satisfied with what I got, I got answers, so I removed my vote. (The fact that I'm not voting isn't on the count, by the way. <_<) Still not entirely sure if this is an elaborate bus, a town vs. town, or if one of them really is that blatantly scummy. Like I said before, I'm not really impressed or convinced by either of them. It does make for nice discussion to go back onto though in the event that one of them flips, so at least we've got that going on for us.

Don't know why I'm pointing this one out, but I don't think I mentioned obbmund at all by name. Maybe it's because I don't like spelling his name. Sorry friend. ._.

Assuming that this is indeed the worst case scenario of five mafia and no protective roles (which I doubt, since skarm did say that he threw out some obviously broken setups, and would be jossed if Ullar is telling the truth) I can assume that the mafia can only have one kill a night, which seems to match up what we had d1

This quote is wrong on two accounts. The first is that the worst case scenario is 5 mafia, which is partially correct, but there's actually something worse that could happen! :D I'll get to that later on in this post. After seeing update: as in now holy shit.

Data shit needs to be out RIGHT NOW oh god oh god oh god

All right, so as I saw it there were 9 possible setups possible after Ullar was confirmed a neutral. I will breifly list them.
A:
B:
C:
D:
E: 5
F: 7 Town, 3 Mafia, 1 neutral
G: 6 Town, 5 Maf, no remaining neutrals
H: 7 Town, 4 Mafia, no neutrals
I: 8 Town, 3 Mafia, No remaining Neutrals

 

[nitrox116]

It's a gamble to hope for another info role at best, especially after BT's death.

Spire, it doesn't look like that post is complete, and some of those options are impossible since we're in MYLO...

 

[spiresquire]

Fuuuuuck I know I know, I clicked on Post reply before I finished shit. These were just the initial setups, before I knew we were in mylo. I have enough info to narrow it down, trying to post it as fast as I can :/

A: 7 town, 2 mafia, 2 scum thirds/ traitors
B: 6 Town, 3 mafia, 2 traitors or scum thirds
C: 5 Town, 4 Mafia, 2 tratiors or scum thirds
D: 6 Town, 4 Mafia, one traitor or scum third
E: 5 Town, 5 mafia, one traitor or scum third

 

[nitrox116]

OK then; I sort of expected that. Thanks for the explanation!

 

[Obbmud99]

A: 7 town, 2 mafia, 2 scum thirds/ traitors
B: 6 Town, 3 mafia, 2 traitors or scum thirds
C: 5 Town, 4 Mafia, 2 tratiors or scum thirds
D: 6 Town, 4 Mafia, one traitor or scum third
E: 5 Town, 5 mafia, one traitor or scum third
F: 7 Town, 3 Mafia, 1 neutral
G: 6 Town, 5 Maf, no remaining neutrals
H: 7 Town, 4 Mafia, no neutrals
I: 8 Town, 3 Mafia, No remaining Neutrals

Yeah, I know I edited it. I just added your new possibilities.
F, H, and I are all impossible. They would leave us with a majority no matter the outcome of the day. C and E don't work either because it would bean that we don't have a majority now (based on just town).

It's a gamble to hope for another info role at best, especially after BT's death.

Spire, it doesn't look like that post is complete, and some of those options are impossible since we're in MYLO...

Yeah, we've already had two inspectors. Chances are good that we won't have any more. It's a shame we lost both our deputy and our inspector on the same night cycle.

 

[spiresquire]

All right, it's fairly obvious that we can rule several of these out now.
Those that spring to mind immedeately are
A
B
C
E
F
G
H
I

Some of these are outright impossible since we would've already lost if they were the true setup. Others are impossible since it wouldn't result in MYLO given the criteria of 2 towns being killed. I think B is a LYLO, not MYLO. I'm thinking it's D, but I could be rushing my thinking.

 

[starwarsfan]

Good point, Unlynch then

if i understand correctly, MYLO means mislynch or lose majority immediately? IE, if we mislynch but we only lose majority after the mafia kill it isn't MYLO?

 

[nitrox116]

MYLO assumes that the mafia will kill a villager that night, so if we mislynch and lose majority after the mafia kill it still counts.

 

[spiresquire]

Actually some seem feasible enough if the mayor specifically is not killed. I don't know if the player count is counted in this, or if it's the vote weight. :/

Let me keep this down for my own sake:
A after ml and town kill: 5T, 2M, 2N; Not MYLO
B: 4T, 2M, 2N; Could be considered MYLO if it's based on player count and not vote weight
C: 3T, 2M, 2N: If the remaining thirds are mavolent, this cannot be possible. We would've already lost by now.
D: 4T, 4M, 1N; LYLO if the one third is scum.
E: 3T, 5M, 1N; Would've already lost by this point.
F: 5T, 3M, 1N; We'd have majority. Not MYLO.
G: 4T, 5M, 0N; MYLO if based on vote count. If it's not B, it's probably this.
H: 5T, 4M, 0N; Not MYLO.
I: 6T, 3M, 0N; Not MYLO.

 

[spiresquire]

Messed up C and B: C Should read 3T, 4M, 2N and B should be 4T, 3M, 2N. I'm confusing myself, damnit. :/

Anyhow, if there was a watcher on Cancerous or a Tracker on anyone who visited him, that'd be nice to know.

 

[starwarsfan]

MYLO assumes that the mafia will kill a villager that night, so if we mislynch and lose majority after the mafia kill it still counts.

Oh OK thanks.

 

[Tesung]

To answer obbmudd, why not vote ullar was simple logic, I didn't want a villager dead, and there was a decent chance ullar was scum, or at least negative towards village

Anyways scum reads
Celever: not really sure, posting fairly aggressively, and hasn't helped too much, although I guess you could say no one has. Walrein said most of it, but the way he tried hard to both gets certain person lunched and them later go with the flow is alarming.

Light wolf/walrein: putting these two together, both have been fairly trusted as town, experienced players, seem to be making good posts, yet neither has died. Seems suspicious that the mafia would target neither

Starwarsfan. I am fairly confident that he is scum, his posting style has been inconsistent and strangely timid, and swf doesn't seem like the timid townie type. Don't like how he wanted me lunched so bad, although obviously that doesn't help you guys cuz you don't know I'm town

Obbmudd. My number one scum read easily. Lying from the beginning (seems like pre-covering his tracks), trying to accuse meand walrein for lynching an anti town, and his post on page 10 where he tried to defend swf, but without committing. He said I think he is misunderstood, but I may be wrong, helping swf while giving himself an out if swf was found out to be mafia. Lynch obbmud99

 

[spiresquire]

Anyway, the fact that I cannot do basic arithmetic is pretty irrelevant at the moment. The set-ups might be a tad more useful later on, but I don't think discussion should truly center it. It's MYLO, which is all that really matters at the moment. I posted the scenarios because I said I would formulate them the day before, but I see myself making so many basic errors with simple calculations with the news of it being MYLO that I'd end up cluttering the thread with contradictions. I need to calm down before revisiting these. :T

The Cancerous kill is fairly odd, maybe even stupid depending on how one looks at it. While I do find it odd that LW and Walrein have yet to be targeted (and I believe I pointed this out in my first relevant post), I find it even more odd that they would target a player very likely to have a watcher on them, and is essentially a blue to boot. I can't really see why they wouldn't try to aim for the mayor over the child, but maybe they thought the (possible?) doctor/watcher would also think that the mayor would be a more likely target. Thinking over it now, a IC kill would reveal the smallest amount of information as possible. We already knew that Cancerous was clear, and so everything he said, he said honestly. He said little, and any conclusion that maf might've had with him could have been figured out before his death. There's also a bunch of WIFOM-y messes to consider in the sparing of LW and Walrein. Should I go into that? :/

 

[starwarsfan]

To answer obbmudd, why not vote ullar was simple logic, I didn't want a villager dead, and there was a decent chance ullar was scum, or at least negative towards village

Anyways scum reads
Celever: not really sure, posting fairly aggressively, and hasn't helped too much, although I guess you could say no one has. Walrein said most of it, but the way he tried hard to both gets certain person lunched and them later go with the flow is alarming.

Light wolf/walrein: putting these two together, both have been fairly trusted as town, experienced players, seem to be making good posts, yet neither has died. Seems suspicious that the mafia would target neither

Starwarsfan. I am fairly confident that he is scum, his posting style has been inconsistent and strangely timid, and swf doesn't seem like the timid townie type. Don't like how he wanted me lunched so bad, although obviously that doesn't help you guys cuz you don't know I'm town

Obbmudd. My number one scum read easily. Lying from the beginning (seems like pre-covering his tracks), trying to accuse meand walrein for lynching an anti town, and his post on page 10 where he tried to defend swf, but without committing. He said I think he is misunderstood, but I may be wrong, helping swf while giving himself an out if swf was found out to be mafia. Lynch obbmud99

.....so I'm scum because I want to lynch someone who to everyone seems very scummy? Let's carry this logic a little further. You think I'm scum. I know I'm village. I can therefore say with 98% certainty that you are scum.

Yeah... no.

 

[LightWolf]

Uh I must have missed night ending and it's 4 AM so uh sleep first then analyse, but unless my head isn't working right, something doesn't make sense here.

We got 11 people alive
It's MYLO so if 2 villagers die village loses control of the lynch, ergo a tie(It'd be LYLO if mafia would gain majority with two deaths already, has to be a tie)
with 9 people left half of the votes are non village
but 9 is a fucking odd number...
Lets say our mayor is considered into this, putting us at an actual 12* votes
Which means 10* votes left if two villagers die, and non village number at 5
BUT shinyskarmory DOESN'T THAT MEAN IT'S LYLO IF OUR MAYOR FUCKING DIES.

I Need some fucking big host conformation here when I wake up that this is really 100% whoever dies at worst mylo with no chance of this being a possible LYLO.

The only way this can be mylo is if we have a serial killer who has been laying very low and he hits right, but I have no freaking idea if that's even possible numbers wise, too sleepy to check more.

Ough this woke me up enough so I might as well do a basic reply to Walrein's Celever thing:

Walrein, if they killed one of us, Celever would likely be lynched, yet they went for the safest kill, maybe because there is a traitor around, maybe because they knew they are close to winning, anything to confuse us really, being dissuaded from Celever just due to that is silly, if you have lynch worthy stuff on him then don't fucking throw it away. Also if the Walrein not dying implies anything, it's that I'm behind it... I mean it worked out perfectly for me, I wouldn't want to risk Walrein being protected, I'd want Walrein around to make his Celever point, and here I am suggesting that the kill is merely a WIFOM that shouldn't affect any lynch related decision. Meh screw that shit, I suspect every one of you and I don't care what I look like when I voice what I think is correct!

GOOD NIGHT EVERYONE, HAVE A MERRY LYNCHMAS!

 

[Celever]

I don't see an awful lot that I need to respond to, just people talking about me. Obviously I can't respond to the logic behind the kill which everyone is speculating I had seeing as I didn't do the kill, so don't try and get a response out of me about that. :p

First of all, Nobody vote for anyone else, unless you can be on at deadline or soon before, and are prepared to unlynch at ANY TIME. This is MYLO, and stealth lynches are common here. I want to know everyone who can be on around deadline so that they can try and prevent such a thing happening.

I was honestly quite surprised at Cancerous' death as well, but overall I think it was a good decision for the mafias because it released absolutely no information. I think someone else said that, but it was what I thought when I saw the kill so I just wanted to let everyone know about that.

Tesung said that my switching targets and lynching Ullar was scummy. No, it wasn't. He literally said "I'M NOT WITH THE TOWN ITG". I explained my reasoning in full.

Obbmud99 has backpedaled a lot. In post #322 he took out 3 posts and underlined the parts which was the same reasoning for lynching Ullar. Let me just take the underlined parts:

Why wouldn't we vote ullar. At worst we are lynching a neutra

There's really no reason not to lynch Ullar at this point

Seriously, don't think of it as a harmless neutral, think of it as anti-town. No matter what lynching a harmless neutral is going to be better than lynching a member of the town

Can you see the odd one out? No, it's not me, it's not Tesung, it's Walrein. Walrein's post screamed "neutral" to me, actually, whereas Tesung's and mine was much more town. Our reasoning is much more saying "at worst we are lynching a neutral" which benefits the town. Walrein thought about how it was negative for the mafia. There is a really huge difference here. What I don't understand is why Obbmud of all people would quote it though. Let's look at his post, and his reasoning for lynching Ullar.

I guess the one thing that bugs me is that he could be the difference between the village winning. However I do understand that the our best outcome is to lynch him. I was just wondering if it was worth it to lynch him. My problem is that I hate making lynch decisions. I guess tesung, celever, and lightwolf are right.
I am so sorry ullar, but after some though, we don't need to have a pacifist fighting against us in the long run. Lynch UllarWarlord

This is a huge backpedal. Furthermore, he says "he could be the difference between the village winning." and then proceeds to lynch him after I had done so. "Lynching this guy could mean the village not winning, so LET'S LYNCH HIM!". This is another way to phrase his post.

Furthermore, Obbmud has tunneled Tesung heavily this game. He included Tesung in the above quotation post where he had good reasoning, and I went back to check where he was instead of lynching Felony at the end of day 1, sure enough he was lynching Tesung. Is there something that you know which you don't want to share about Tesung?

Yes people, I have a lot of posts. D1 I was forced on the defensive by Felony. D2 I was forced on the defensive by LightWolf. I could have left it at my defenses and just talking to a couple of users, but I wanted to get my defense out of the way and then post again to try and help scum hunt the best I could. Naturally, this would mean I would make a hell of a lot of posts. It has to be said though, I do that every game (please guys, just read back a couple of games before making assumptions on play styles).

Lynch Obbmudd99. Deadline is at about 9:25 PM for me, so I'll be on no matter what. Especially on a Sunday if we don't get any extensions, but weekdays work well too.

Walrein when the heck have I backed down? The first person who started an argument with me, Felony, ended up getting lynched due to being scummy. The second person who started an argument with me, Lightwolf, I have not backed down from, except for the one time where we argued about one paragraph to no extent. I explained why in the very same post. Also define "timid townie" for me please. I kind of assumed it would be "a townie who just skates by and contributes quite little, but people don't consider him scum." Kind of like Cancerous. I don't see how I fit that definition, so I assume I must have got it wrong if you're calling me it. Walrein is probably my #2 scum itg right now. This isn't OMGUS, this is from his poor reasoning. He's also had large periods of inactivity, (I know that it can be attributed to school though) and he hasn't really contributed a lot for an experienced player.

Speaking of experienced players not contributing too much, I'd love it if More Cowbell could post today. I feel like you and Walrein are playing very differently in this game, but both of you are experienced and neither of you have contributed too much. Even if like you said in an earlier post you would be italics in the list I posted, you should still be contributing a lot. I'm the only one left, and I'm trying the best I can to scum hunt. Ullar was the other italics, and he didn't contribute too much. He was third party.

 

[More Cowbell]

I fell asleep before I had a chance to respond to this thread yesterday (European timezones, so good) and only have a small moment now, so I'll comment on the mafia kill and will react to some other posts later today.

Killing the Innocent Child may seem like a weird move, but I don't really think it is. There where only two confirmed villagers alive at that point; the Mayor and the Innocent Child. If you were a Bodyguard or Doctor, who would you try to save? The Mayor, of course, which leaves the Innocent Child open for mafia kills. Besides, Cancerous didn't post very much (and didn't have some sort of feud with any of the players), so he leaves us with very little information to work off, while mafia still took out a villager.
If I were mafia, however, I wouldn't really bother with killing what is essentially a vannilager, when you can also just randtarget another player and maybe catch a village power role. This leads me to believe that the mafia doesn't know how many townies and neutrals there are in the game (no inspect roles, or not enough time to properly inspect so far), and that they don't want to randkill a neutral that may side with them later (this would have been the case with Ullar). Another possibility is that there is a traitor (or more) in the game, and the mafia wouldn't want to waste a night getting a 'no result' on their kill target, now that they're starting to gain an advantage in the daily lynch.
So, I think Cancerous was quite a logical kill target for the mafia, since it offers the village almost nothing, while there is no chance for the mafia of lynching someone who may help them later.

I will be back later today with some responses to posts made in this thread.

 

[Obbmud99]

Obbmudd. My number one scum read easily. Lying from the beginning (seems like pre-covering his tracks), trying to accuse meand walrein for lynching an anti town, and his post on page 10 where he tried to defend swf, but without committing. He said I think he is misunderstood, but I may be wrong, helping swf while giving himself an out if swf was found out to be mafia. Lynch obbmud99

Did you read the whole tribunal thing on page 9 and 10? I though that his " you and your two scum buddies " was talking about mafia members, but he eventually said that it was based on the Latin roots. The comment with the misunderstanding or me being wrong will make me look like mafia if he turned out to be mafia, because it's clear that I went aggressive on him then backed up. How would this help me?

I'll get to you later celever... iPhone text writing op.

 

[shinyskarmory]

I Need some fucking big host conformation here when I wake up that this is really 100% whoever dies at worst mylo with no chance of this being a possible LYLO.

Today is MYLO and not LYLO because if a No Lynch occurs, the town doesn't necessarily lose. On the other hand, a lynch that hits town is a pretty much guaranteed town loss.