NOC Great Idea Mafia-Game Over! Mafia, vonFiedler, and More Cowbell win!

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That wasn't my question shinyskarmory and you know it. IF IT IS POSSIBLE, THAT THE A SCENARIO MAY OCCUR WHERE THE VILLAGE LOSES IF THEY NO LYNCH, THEN IT'S A POTENTIAL LYLO AND WE SHOULD BE TOLD! Your wording very much hints that there is a chance village loses if we don't lynch, and the fact that it's MYLO at odd numbers highly suggests that the mayor is key and I'm not gonna bet this game on there being a protecting role on the mayor, I also will not believe anyone claiming that role, so if you are BG OR DOCTOR, DON'T YOU DARE TO CLAIM, ONLY A MAFIA WOULD CLAIM THAT AT THIS POINT. Either way I want to lynch this day, no question about that, I will look over the new posts and form a cohesive argument after I'm done watching youtube videos.
 
Okay, that leaves in my mind two possible setups left:

2 mayors OR 3 mafia 1 Serial Killer

If we have 2 mayors then if we no lynch, worst case 1 dies, bringing the numbers down to 10, with village having 5+1 votes and mafia having 5, ergo LYLO.
If we have a Serial Killer, worst case if we no lynch mayor and someone else dies, we are left with 9 people, 5 village, 1 SK and 3 mafia.

Every other option I could come up with had a chance to be potentially LYLO at this point, and this has been confirmed to be 100% MYLO... Also we can assume non traitor/serial killer neutrals don't count towards the mafia numbers, otherwise last day would have been MYLO too, also if we had Lovers around it'd be game over for us already(mafia+lovers would already be bale to outvote us currently if Pacifist not counting towards MYLO is any hint), uh and Politician likely would have given up already considering how his wc is pretty shitty.

So say one of the above is true, well then we are royally boned either way and waiting is pointless! If there has been a hiding serial killer this whole time, we are p much letting them shoot the next two nights and hope they massively crossfire somewhere, I mean the SK wants to hit mafia at least on the second night from those, but then we are trusting the SK's judgement of who is mafia, rather than taking our own chances based on our own suspicions.

As for the double mayor case, it's p much the same, a mayor likely dies tonight, and after that we'd be at LYLO, but even if we keep lynching mafia, the second our second Mayor dies, mafia wins, it''d be a race against time we likely won't win since their assumed numbers are at 5.

In the end if the double mayor is true we are better of lynching at MYLO, because the second we run out of mayors MYLO becomes LYLO and LYLO becomes insta loss. And if we have an SK I'd rather trust my own judgement than leave it up to the SK to successfully crossfire when he needs to.

Naturally I may have overlooked some possible setups that explain the current 100% MYLO, so I'd love to hear your theories(actual theories the numbers I sawo n the last page don't actually work since roles aren't being considered, Odd numbers can't be mylos without some role shenanigans so roles need to be considered). So now that I put out my thoughts on the MYLO I say a vote in favour of LYNCHING THE FUCK OUT OF SOMEONE TODAY!
 
LightWolf, I don't know enough about set ups etc. to come up with my own theories as far as I'm concerned, however one comment of yours sparked a theory in my head.

"also if we had Lovers around it'd be game over for us already(mafia+lovers would already be bale to outvote us"

But what if the lover chose a mafia member? There could be a pair of lovers here, but one is also mafia. I'm pretty sure that's not majority, and iirc lovers can't kill. What do you think?

Also Ace Emerald, I see you lurking. Your thoughts on the night?
 
Celever said:
LightWolf, I don't know enough about set ups etc. to come up with my own theories as far as I'm concerned, however one comment of yours sparked a theory in my head.

"also if we had Lovers around it'd be game over for us already(mafia+lovers would already be bale to outvote us"

But what if the lover chose a mafia member? There could be a pair of lovers here, but one is also mafia. I'm pretty sure that's not majority, and iirc lovers can't kill. What do you think?

Also Ace Emerald, I see you lurking. Your thoughts on the night?
Click to expand...
Catching up on all the posts atm. I'm away for a day and everything gets crazy @.@ will post at the end
 
I might have limited internet access this weekend... I might be able to make it on around deadline, but you never know.

I'm also going to unvote for now to guarantee no stealth lynching.

If there were two mayors, wouldn't we have noticed that in the votecount by now? I don't believe that there's anyone who has never voted at all.

We need to make sure that whoever we lynch tonight is correct. Tesung and starwars have both been pretty defensive, but I agree that some of obbmud's posts have been a tad suspicious. I'll do a more detailed analysis of him soon.
 
So obviously we're in a pretty shitty situation here. LightWolf why do you say we need to lynch someone today? Wouldn't it be better to put off our LYLO situation till the last possible minute to insure we have the most information we can?
 
Just like last time, I'll be linking to the comments I'm referring to, since I'm terrible with quote tags. Bear with me.

Obbmud99, #322

Walrein saying that we shouldn't hammer Ullar while also saying that there is no reason not to vote for him isn't that strange; my guess is that he tried to say that hammering would shorten the day, costing us time that can be used for discussion. Even if you were already voting Ullar, saying that you also suspected someone else would still help us all gather information.

Obbmud99, #327

Just wanted to point out that having more than two neutrals in the game at this point would be impossible; in rule 6, shinyskarmory stated that ''there may be no more than 3 neutrals''. One is dead, leaving a maximum of two (though I'm not sure if this takes the possibility of the Recruiting Serial Killer and Compulsive Nymphomaniac being in the game into account, if they recruit someone when there are already three neutrals in the game, more neutrals are possible). This makes 2N/4M/5V a possible scenario, though less neutrals and more villagers is also still a possibility. Not really sure how that would pan out, and I'm not exactly a genius with chance theory and all that, but just wanted to point out that more than 2 neutrals at this point is highly unlikely.

I'm skipping a lot of posts here, since I'm bad at calculating all these set-ups and the likes.

LightWolf, #346

Would a Serial Killer seriously wait this long to start making kills? SKs only win if they are the last player(s) standing, so starting the killing earlier is better for them (less days = less chance to be lynched or nightkilled). I don't think I've played with SKs in a set-up before, but I would expect them to start offing people earlier.
I still find Celever-LightWolf feud at hand very interesting and very difficult to put my finger on; any of the two being lynched would start a huge WIFOM situation. So far I'm still quite trusting of both players, though, no intention of lynching either of the two today (unless someone manages to convince me, of course).

Celever, #347

First of all, deadline should be at 10pm for me, so I should be able to be online around then.
On to the next point; how is Walrein really the odd one out? He worded his point like you and Tesung did, but I don't see how it makes him mafia. I think Walrein is experienced enough not to show he's mafia in his posts.
Talking about tunneling, Celever, haven't the majority of your votes been on Obbmud this game? You complain that he's constantly focusing on Tesung (which I never really noticed, tbh), while you're constantly falling back on Obbmud as a lynch target.
Regarding your last paragraph; here I am, and I'm still as ready as always to answer questions on anything regarding the game. Fire away.

LightWolf, #353

Both a second Mayor and a hidden Serial Killer seem unlikely to me; we would've noticed the second Mayor from the vote counts, and like I said in response to #346, would a SK stay hidden this long?

With these posts out of the way, I want to mention that I really want Walrein and Pokeguy to post more; Walrein has been somewhat active on and off but I feel like his posts should be able to contribute to the game, while I haven't heard anything substantial from Pokeguy just yet, even though others have given him instructions on how to quote and all that (though I have to admit quoting multiple posts sucks, as you can see in this post of mine).

I don't want to place any votes yet since I really want to hear Walrein and Pokeguy to speak up first, though Celever would have my vote right now for the hypocrisy regarding tunneling and me not being much by him this game.

Like I said multiple times before; if you want my opinion on anything, ask for it. Don't say I never post anything, and then don't ask questions when you can.
 
The first mayor being revealed was an admitted host mistake, for which we got limited day 1 time. And if you say that we neither have an SK or a second mayor(there is actually an SK who hides from ie inspection roles if he idles and there is the surprise factor too), then provide a situation where given what we know currently, we'd be at MYLO at worst. If no one can come up with stuff other than what I suggested then I'm likely right with one of them, and as I said with both of them, waiting till LYLO is a trap in both(in SK case we depend on SK's judgement of who he thinks is mafia and in the double mayor case we lose the second all our mayors die if they are holding us in LYLO in the first place).

Right now the priority should be figuring out the mess we are in because as I've shown, depending on the situation, not lynching at MYLO is worse than lynching. And I will repeat, if odd numbers of people are left alive, in a straight village vs mafia sided with 1 kill per night it can't be MYLO, only if there are roles affecting the numbers is it possible(mayors or additional kills are the answers I could come up with).

Also Lovers wouldn't work, since they'd be neutrals who solely have to survive, and if we are at MYLO now and we weren't at mylo yesterday then it's obvious that the Pacifist didn't count towards the mafia votes, similarly Lovers wouldn't either, so if we have a pair of actual Lovers currently, they exist outside the mylo situation, and could be added to either side, meaning +2 votes for mafia mean we already lost. Similarly say there is a second pacifist, then he can team up with mafia at what normally would be LYLO and as explained yesterday, tie the vote into a no lynch.
 
Ah, sorry about that. I was wondering what the host mistake mentioned earlier was. I feel that after Felony and BT's death, any SK, even one with an inspection-proof power, would have killed somebody last night. The double mayor possibility seems more reasonable, although again, it's unlikely. One has to be true, though...
 
well there is the third option of being a mylo, with 6 town 4 mafia and a politician/pacifist/lyncher. Pacifist p much makes this LYLO, Politician is essentially a Fool who wants to be voted, minus that he doesn't want to get lynched, which means they will be a hindrance though who they end up voting for is up to them(again though mafia can always just kill him while village doesn't really want to lynch him...) and lyncher is statistically in the favour of mafia, but could go either way. But by fact that I made sure that ss clarified that village will still hold majority if we no lynch regardless of the circumstances as long as we no lynch, this theory is abolished, though it might depend on ss possibly meaning something else with a guaranteed Day 4(any game where a neutral can side with the mafia, LYLO and MYLO usually take these neutrals as mafia votes, well mostly fool, never really met any of these bar lyncher, and that guy is a tossup)
 
Just wanted to say MoreCowbell that starwarsfan and obbmudd have been tunneling me, while it may be for good intentions (which I doubt), they definitely have been. What do others think of obbmudds post on page 10 where he tries to halfheartedly defend starwarsfan while giving himself an out. Also, as for whether we should lynch someone or not, it would be crazy not to. The only chance a village has to kill is with the lynch, and every night it gets worse, so I don't see why we should put it off.
 
Day 3, MYLO Vote Count 2

Today is a MYLO (mislynch and lose) day. If a village-aligned player is lynched today and another village-aligned player is killed tonight, the village will no longer hold a majority vote in the lynch. However, if you No Lynch, the game is guaranteed to reach Day 4.

(11) Not quite at the final frontier:
(majority is 6 votes)

1. Ace Emerald (0):
4. Celever (1): Obbmud99
5. Tesung (0):
6. spiresquire (0):
8. LightWolf (0):
9. Nitrox116 (0):
10. More Cowbell (0):
11. Obbmud99 (2): Tesung, Celever,
12. PokeguyNXB (0): Nitrox116,
13. starwarsfan (1): Walrein,
15. Walrein (0):

No Lynch (1): starwarsfan

Not voting: Ace Emerald, spiresquire, LightWolf, Nitrox116, More Cowbell, PokeguyNXB, starwarsfan

Next Vote Count: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 10 (24 hours away) or by request
Deadline Review: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 10 (24 hours away)
Current Deadline: 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) on May 11 (48 hours away) or when majority is reached.

Carry on.
 
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Okay, the good news is I might have access to a computer later today, the bad news is right now all I've got is my crappy e-reader. So maybe I can FINALLY post something useful. And this is perfect timing, since we're on MYLO, this should be MUCH easier (sarcasm detected)
 
LightWolf, I'm not saying a hidden SK or second Mayor are impossible (it is indeed a possibility, considering the random set-up), I was just saying that two Mayors are unlikely and that I expected the SK to act earlier (though I have little experience with SKs). It's getting late right now, so tomorrow I'll try to find some alternative scenarios that are also possible. I will also look at Tesung's question then.
 
Ok sorry guys, I don't have a particularly long time making this, but two things:
1) MC, I don't think. I tunelled Obbmudd at all itg. On day 1 I was the first to defend him, and in the following days he's just seemed scummier and scummier to me. I suppose it could be interpreted as tunelling, however I have tunelled on Felony just in day 1 than on Obbmudd in the whole game, so that argument doesn't have too much weight.

2) I am confused as to why we are trying to figure out the set up to the game now? Lynch the most likely scum and then figure out the set up when we have actual information about the anti-town players. We should be scumhunting, not trying to figure out how many targets we have and then not trusting the possible outcomes anyway...
 
Because what we do depends on what the setup is, whether we lynch now or decide it's safe to go on with a no lynch. As it stands I'm heavily against NL, but I'd still like to see if my ideas are the only possible ones because having a general knowledge of the enemy numbers is important.
 
Thinking about it now, all we are guaranteed is a Day 4. We don't necessarily need to win the vote, right? Especially if there's a day vigilante out there. I'm thinking that in this game, the mafia needs to outnumber the village outright.

I doubt there is a serial killer at this point, but I need an answer to a question first before I can say for sure. If so, you'd be right with there only being three mafia. Otherwise, I'm thinking it is that third option, which is basically my scenario "D". I incorrectly assumed that the traitor was always considered a maf, so I calculated under the assumption of T:M+N instead of T+N:M or even T:M:N. Now I think that the ratio at this point is T+N:M.

Also, if there is a second mayor, I would think they would've claimed by now, and then try to prove themselves by hammering at L2. Either they are incredibly incompetent or just not there. :T The "host screw up" involved Cancerous the Innocent Child, not the mayor's vote being counted. Cancerous PM'd shiny saying that he wasn't automatically revealed, and shiny's post in d1 reflects this.

Cancerous does raise a point though. We don't have all this time to speculate, having a deadline and all. We can just assume that right now, it's impossible to have five mafia at this point, and it's also guaranteed that we have one or two thirds left. Out of the 3-4 mafia, we gotta lynch one today. I haven't posted real scum reads in a long long long time now, so I will work on those and won't post again until they are complete. :Y
 
The way it's stated is that if we mislynch a villager tonight and a villager is killed tonight, then the village will no longer hold majority.
This means that the ratio is V:M+N and that if V < M + N then we basically auto-lose.
 
Traitors are 100% mafia. And we know for a fact that other neutrals don't count for mafia in MYLO, because Pacifist lynched last time was clearly not ocunted or else it would have been mylo yesterday. Also please repost your D option so I can debunk it here.
 
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