The reason I'm ignoring Ultrasplot is that you aren't raising any real points, just shouting over and over 'CELEVER IS MAFIA AND I THINK US IS TOO!'. From Celever's recent behavior I'm starting to actually agree with you on that latter point, but I'll give you a few examples of why I'm not responding to you just so you can adjust accordingly and start contributing (whether this be in the form of real points being brought up for/against me or anyone else):
UltrasPlot said:
You are less likely to lynch someone that agrees with you. That post will clearly advantage you in Spiffy's eyes, even subconciously.
So...should no one ever agree with anyone, or else you call them out on 'buddying'? Like, what? There is no response to this outside of 'you are simply wrong because people WILL agree over some things, that's the nature of the game and it would be silly to be afraid of agreeing with anyone if it were a "scumtell"'.
UltrasPlot said:
I never said you would be his teammate, but Haunted Diamond is clearly the easier lynch, if Celever flips scum and the buddying is noticed you're in hot water.
Firstly you did say 'I'm HOT ON THE TRAIL OF A MAFIA DUO GUYS' so yes, you are basically accusing me of being Celever's scumbuddy. Secondly, no Haunted Diamond is not the easier lynch or the easiest lynch, Gale is. Gale has made objectively the most mistakes this day but I think he is towny. Why? Because I'm reading into what I feel the intentions are behind behavior, rather than the behavior itself. Haunted Diamond has made a large number of plays that can only be attributed to relatively scummy intentions (bandwagoning with no evidence can only be attributed to not wanting discussion to happen or me to be around when it does happen, for obvious reasons if he is mafia. His whole combination of consistently appealing to emotion while not being willing to contribute anything is a big scumtell, while his 'not caring' is another classic scumtell. Villagers care about being mislynched, Haunted Diamond 'doesn't care' about being lynched. The list goes on and on but you get the idea, Haunted's whole demeanor this day can only be explained from a mafia's perspective). Finally, I was the very first person to point out Celever's buddying and question him/push him on it. Him continuing to buddy me thus can only be attributed to him thinking I make good points, regardless of his alignment (or, alternatively, he could be mafia hoping that buddying me will reduce my propensity to accuse him, in which case it hasn't worked).
UltrasPlot said:
You do realize that townies can have this tendency too...? People like to survive.
This was with regards to Haunted Diamond's general 'I don't care just lynch literally anyone else' attitude prior to doing a complete 180 in recent posts and jumping on the other favored scum play 'I don't care you'll all regret this'. People like to survive yes but villagers tend to be a lot more informative if they are being lynched and try to help the village as much as possible. Haunted is not doing that.
UltrasPlot said:
Thought of more to say. What is even the case against Haunted Diamond? He bandwagoned earlier D1... so what? How is this damning evidence at all? And when the case is being pushed by my #1 and #2 scumreads I cannot help but be suspicious. His posts today seem to be 'whatever lynch me i dont even care anymore' which are USUALLY indicative of scum without a teammate just giving up. There is absolutely no reason he would do that as mafia, it would more than likely do him no good as it seems ilke a last gasp try before they get lynched. However, he is by no means in a fatal situation. If he tried to actually defend himself (as I believe mafia would) he still has a chance at not being lynched. However, assuming he is a townie, he would really have no reason to care since he has no one to defend himself FOR (i.e. a partner)
What an excellent point you made to lynch Haunted Diamond, except you then read it completely the opposite of how things actually are. Mafia do not defend themselves nearly as rigorously as villagers do, this is a fact. I agree he still has a chance at not being lynched, specifically if he convinces people that he is actually contributing. But he isn't doing that. He is doing everything he can to continue to be unhelpful while hoping that people like you just 'move on' because you buy his bullshit 'pls don't lynch me plspslpls' attitude.
Alright now if you have anything else to say about me please point to actually strange motivations I might have for doing so, not just continually saying 'UNCLESAM IS MAFIA CELEVER IS BUDDYING HIM' because this has nothing to do with my behavior of the intentions behind it. I have been consistently the most valuable contributing and generator of discussion throughout this game, I had a baseless bandwagon driven almost to a lynch 12 hours in against me, and at every point I have called out others for inconsistent behavior - but I've also demonstrated I'm willing to townread people who hate me (such as yourself or Gale) and change my perspectives on people throughout the day (again, see Gale) because I am not in this for popularity points. I'm in it to find scum, and I am constantly re-evaluating my own prognosis of people based on new information (versus starting at the conclusion and then working backwards).
Seriously, you haven't raised a single point against me based on my behavior this game because my play has been the strongest of anyone so far.
I will not respond to accusations or you demanding to be heard unless they have some basis in reality. It is a waste of my time and a waste of discussion time in general. This is the same reason that I haven't responded to a large number of Gale's points previously throughout this day.
Speaking of Gale:
Gale Wing SRock said:
UncleSam hasn't been responding to my posts either. And did you guys notice? He hasn't posted his reads on everyone yet. Despite me asking for it explicitly :o
I HAVE posted my reads on people consistently throughout this day, I have no idea what you're talking about. Who do you think I've avoided reading? For what it's worth I plan on giving updates later in this post anyway because I suspect it will be one of my last chances to put the village in a good position prior to the lynch finalization and Yeti murdering me lol.
Gale Wing SRock said:
Idk why
Da Letter El is buddying me (may be his team would kill me instead of US's), seriously guys my blatant jump on the wagon cannot be ignored because of a few posts. We need to be Vigilant as Blues to nab the scums, and please keep a watch on everyone at all the time regardless of how Townie their posts are.
He isn't 'buddying' you, he is reading you as best he can. There's a big difference, which UltrasPlot has also failed to discern. He feels that your play is best described by your being a town member, and I agree. If I had to list who has been most helpful this day you would probably be near the bottom of the list, and you've also had more scumtells than anyone, but I think that your play as a whole is a lot more consistent with you being town and just flailing for most of the day.
Gale Wing SRock said:
One of the reason I hate myself in MagMafia was because I never noticed the scum hints that UncleSam was showing. Ofcourse the vigilance makes townies mad, because they have to defend stuff regularly. But we still need to be critical of our own reads.
Scumhints in OC games with lots of roles are way different than scumhints in NOC, and just because I moled you in a previous game does not have any bearing on this one (apart from maybe you ought to be more cautious when trusting me I guess, which isn't what is happening here); instead, you're saying 'US was scum last game in a completely different format so I'm going to read him as scum this game too' which is really harmful to the village and incredibly counter-productive. Classic gambler's fallacy.
Yeti said:
you're still alive because we're waiting for other users to post a final summation of their thoughts for the day but you won't be once they do cause your behavior is just continually going downhill on the scum scale lol
like i said, sam's picking on a guy who can't defend himself. and won't even try to. i'm def in the HD flipping scum camp with these continued posts (similar to what gale did, but he corrected that behavior, so a town HD has no excuse to make these same mistakes). once
PokeguyNXB posts and every loose end of discussion looks tied up i'll cast my vote on HD, he's too close to hammer to do it tonight and i'm going to bed.
Holy shit Yeti just keeps it up with the scumtells regarding Haunted Diamond. 'I think HD is scum now because he IS obviously scumlol but I still think it's unfair that US is going against someone on my team who won't/can't defend themselves what a cheapshot'. Like, really? When you're village you just do a 'lmao' when the mafia aren't defending themselves if it works out in your favor, you do NOT bitch about how unfair it is.
This also reads like Yeti is consoling her teammates to some extent.
Yeti said:
I addressed several scenarios in which you would be scum. Including TIK as your partner, I believe. You conveniently neglect this in favor of focusing on HD and trying to push me as his partner, after I suggested it about you. You really can't see the faulty logic here?
Alright I'm going to say one last time why this is total horseshit, via analogy. Let's say that I am a murderer and murder person X. I then accuse person Y of murdering person X. Person Y then points to evidence that I murdered person X. I then say that this is them not being willing to come up with an original argument but instead just turning my argument on me and conveniently ignore the evidence.
You accusing me of being Haunted Diamond's partner made no sense whatsoever, everyone should be able to see that. I would have to be suicidal/retarded to so forcibly call for my partner's lynch in a game style like this, especially when doing so makes you more likely to be killed by the other mafia.
On the other hand, you have consistently defended Haunted Diamond and thrown shade on every accusation made against him, all while covertly admitting that you think he is scum. This makes no sense if you are village. Hell, you even say:
Yeti said:
Odds are, yeah, he's mafia.
Like, really? This reads so much as though your brain is telling you that there's nothing to argue against the Haunted lynch based on but your motherly instincts just can't resist defending the babby from evil US~
Alright and finally I'll post my reads currently and who I think the scum teams are most likely.
Most likely to be town: UltrasPlot, Da Letter El, Gale Wing SRock. UltrasPlot and Gale are classic flailing noobtown and their play makes no sense from a mafia perspective. DLE I happen to know has been extremely busy with the other game/playing AOE2 and Spades with me and when he has been active he's been a strong contributor, exactly as I'd expect of him when he is town.
Slight Town Read: Walrein, Spiffy, ButteredToast, Cancerous. Both of the first two have been helpful and contributing, though both leave a bit to be desired in terms of activity recently. ButteredToast is falling more in line with his village play of late than his mafia play. Cancerous hasn't contributed much in ages but his contributions previously read as strongly pro-town. Would like to see him post more, though.
Slight Scum Read: Celever, Yeti. Celever's contributions have been declining in quality throughout this day, and his buddying me is slightly more likely to be him wanting to avoid me accusing him if he is mafia then him being village who simply agrees with most of what I say. I think that Celever would be a good option to lynch in the event that one of my town reads flips mafia, or if Acidphoenix flips mafia. Yeti is obviously a good lynch is Haunted Diamond flips scum.
Most likely Scum: Haunted Diamond, Acidphoenix, PokeguyNXB. I've provided quite a few reasons why Haunted is likely scum but Pokeguy has been really unhelpful so far and acidphoenix has basically just bandwagoned me and then done nothing for most of the day.
If I had to guess what the scumteams are right now, I think that they are most likely to be:
Haunted Diamond+Yeti, and
Pokeguy+Acidphoenix/Celever. Pokeguy and Acidphoenix/Celever have been pretty much ignoring each other while pushing for Haunted Diamond's lynch, while Haunted's only real supporters are Yeti (and honestly even she thinks Haunted is scum) and UltrasPlot.
tl;dr lynch Haunted Diamond, then pressure Yeti (if scumflip) or Pokeguy/Celever (in either flip case but particularly in a townflip case) tomorrow.
