NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.

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Oh and btw I think that DLE severely underplayed how much BT disliked Gale. Gale was literally BT's only scum read the entirety of Day 1. If anything the fact he had so few others reads makes it curious as to why anyone other than Gale would kill him (and DLE downplaying how much BT disliked him is curious as well).

I'm also just going to go ahead and say that both villagers killed held among the most favorable views of myself. I doubt that's why either was killed (unless you seriously think I killed one of them specifically to include this in a footnote in one of my posts the next day), but if someone wanted suspicions and discussion to veer more towards me it would be hard to find a better kill than Spiffy.

Also Pokeguy's last post is just as terrible as the rest of his have been, and I agree with Yeti that it looks like his partner told him to post more but he doesn't know what he should be posting or how to defend himself.

As for Yeti's reasoning regarding me/her/DLE, I highly doubt that the host of this game even knows who the experienced players are on this forum, and also highly doubt that the roles weren't 100% randomized. This is one of the reasons I haven't been after you/DLE as much as I otherwise would've, as your alignment here is no more or less likely to be mafia than anyone else's, and so I follow the evidence instead. I guess it isn't random that the most scum evidence is being produced by newer players, but I think it's a much better avenue of discussion to pursue then 'maybe the game wasn't 100% RNG'd and so DLE/Yeti must be mafia!' (or DLE/US from your perspective).

That being said, The Diabolic Gift, could you confirm or deny whether the role distribution is random or not? I've definitely thought about this previously but for whatever reason never formally asked you I don't believe unless I missed it.
 
correction: majority is SIX

I think the idea of Gale being my partner is a bit ridiculous; I don't think Gale would ever bus a partner as hard as he tried to lynch me (he was pretty much the only player scumreading me at the end of day 1 besides spiffy and yeti to a degree iirc). If you really think Gale would get so exasperated over the lynch of the day to call me out as a likely mafia about to kill him with me as his partner during the night, then you're just not thinking. Tell me those posts didn't sound genuine to you.

Yeti said:
I disagree Sam kills me. I think he considers it, but as the only person who was really opposing him, it's too obvious. He doesn't want to risk someone will call him for it. If Haunted Diamond flipped mafia he 100% doesn't kill me and tries to shove his dick down my throat the next day and lynch me off. When HD flipped village he had to think, is she going to counter-push on me for this? But will it be too obvious if he goes for me? And I think he decides it will be, and hopes he can make nice. UncleSam seems to think he would have considered killing me, more than I think he would have. I think he's confident enough in his own loudness he can stave me off, but SOMEONE would call him out if I did die.
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That's what I was trying to get at in my post; I felt you were the obvious kill for him but if he got worried about it then I think Spiffy would be his second option. I didn't think about Celever though but I think that avoiding a celever kill could make sense if he believed that he could push a celever lynch.
 
DLE is right, majority is six so feel free to go to three votes for pressure I guess.

However DLE isn't really thinking about the Spiffy kill. I already pointed out why killing Spiffy is the absolute single best choice for anyone who wants to get people talking about me, both because he was A. just as hard on the Haunted Diamond lynch as I was, and B. He was supportive of basically everything I said throughout the last half of the day. Again, if you seriously posit that I killed him you are basically staking that on me trying to pull some reverse psychology bullshit when we all know I'd have killed Celever in a fucking heartbeat.

Also frankly you're REALLY stretching for reasons to talk about me killing Spiffy...it almost sounds like you were hoping the other mafia kill would've made more sense if I were mafia (like literally anyone other than ButteredToast...) and therefore vindicated killing Spiffy.

As for you and Gale, it is not ridiculous at all. Gale called you out as mafia a few times but honestly given how badly he has played this game I would NOT put it past him to just randomly call out his partner as mafia (and you know I'm right about this). He was being genuine I believe that, the point is that he probably doesn't know any better/felt it would put him in a better position if you flipped later on so he could point to it.

Outside of defending yourself you've solely tunnelled on me during this day though DLE. What are your thoughts on who would've wanted to kill either person (outside of apparently me wanting Spiffy dead)? What are your thoughts on Pokeguy's horrendous play and obvious motivations to kill Spiffy? What about Celever and Acidphoenix? Anyone else you're getting weird vibes from?
 
OK I'm back in town and have the next 4 days off of work, hopefully I can get some shit done.

I can think of a few possible reasons why BT would be killed.

1. The mafia is Gale and feared that BT would be able to successfully convince us on his scumread.
-I find this one to be a bit sketchy. While it's true that Gale has been known to overreact to things like this in the past, it seems to me that he's mellowed considerably as of late, and I feel like he knows better than to make this sort of blunder. Also, I agree with DLE in that I don't think scum!Gale makes that night post.

2. The mafia is extremely cautious and wants to avoid the doctor's protection.
-This seems like a logical plan for a newer pair of scum players to make, whereas I feel the more experienced users would value the opportunity to silence a powerful daytime voice over the slim chance of hitting the doctor's target. The question, however, is: who would this include? As Yeti pointed out, Pokeguy is a possible candidate, but I'm pretty sure every other user in the game has played mafia in some form or another at some point (correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe UltrasPlot has played on PS?), and very few of these users would allow Pokeguy to be the sole user to decide their kill. If Pokeguy is on the team that killed BT, then his partner is both rather new and not very assertive.

3a. The mafia is made up of "big name" users and didn't want to hit one of their own
OR
3b. The mafia is made up of newer but more savvy players who want us to think that 3a was the motivation
-This one is very clearly WIFOM, but I find 3b to be more likely than 3a just because 3a is a garbage plan that I would expect the bigger-name users to know better than to go with. 3b is something that I could see a more ambitious fellow like Celever or Gale coming up with.

4. The mafia was scumreading BT and was hoping to crossfire.
-IMO the dumbest of the plans because scum crossfiring last night probably would have been a less favorable outcome for them. This one again points to newer users

Conclusion: The scumteam that killed ButteredToast is probably made up of users who are newer, but aren't completely braindead.

AFAIK DLE was the only one scumreading Spiffy, so he seems like a pretty safe "this guy is both experienced and towny" kill. I honestly don't think we can glean a whole lot of information from that one other than a slight lean towards at least one bigger name perhaps being on that team, simply because he died and they didn't.

I agree with the comments that say Pokeguy's posting seems like a concerted effort to look less bad. This combined with all his shit yesterday means that my pressure vote is Lynch PokeguyNXB

Other random reads I've had floating around in my brain over the weekend:

DLE seems town to me. His posting when it's scum seems pre-planned and carefully constructed, and I'm not getting that vibe this game. I also doubt he would be on the team that killed Spiffy if he was scum, since he was one of the few people that had a scum read on him.

HOWEVER I think that there is something to this DLE-Gale connection, simply because I can see scum Gale bussing his partner to look better.

Still reading Celever as scum, eagerly anticipating his next post.

acidphoenix I see you looking at the thread you best post something

Cancerous you should contribute more too
 
UncleSam said:
As for Yeti's reasoning regarding me/her/DLE, I highly doubt that the host of this game even knows who the experienced players are on this forum, and also highly doubt that the roles weren't 100% randomized. This is one of the reasons I haven't been after you/DLE as much as I otherwise would've, as your alignment here is no more or less likely to be mafia than anyone else's, and so I follow the evidence instead. I guess it isn't random that the most scum evidence is being produced by newer players, but I think it's a much better avenue of discussion to pursue then 'maybe the game wasn't 100% RNG'd and so DLE/Yeti must be mafia!' (or DLE/US from your perspective).
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I do think the roles were 100% RNGed. I simply also think that with the quantity of players, it seems unlikely all three of us are experienced and town.

I mean, here is the playerlist:

Acidphoenix
ButteredToast
Cancerous
Celever
DaLetterEl
Gale Wings Srock
Hannahh/Walrein
Haunted Diamond
PokeguyNXB
The Idiotic One/Spiffy
THE_IRON_...KENYAN?/UP
UncleSam
Yeti

There are ten people still alive. If I omit all suspicions, there are nine I can choose between to be scum (not myself).

acidphoenix, Cancerous, Celever, DLE, Gale, Walrein, Pokeguy, UP and US. What are the chances the remaining villagers are Yeti, US, DLE and like, Gale, Walrein and UP? Celever, acidphoenix, Cancerous and Pokeguy are then the scum.

....actually acidphoenix/Pokeguy being mafia 2 makes a lot of sense and I think Celever is scum. I think the biggest question, in this circumstance, is, is it Walrein or Cancerous?
 
Okay the mafia plan seems clear to me.

Set me up as Lynch target, or worst case lay the suspicion on me so folks wont listen to my reasoning. (I am in awe of UncleSam and DLE's brains at this point @_@).

Anyways, Yeti Cancerous Walrein do you guys mind to support the newbie townies today? It wouldn't hurt to see how we proceed with the lynch.

Obviously your inputs would be appreciated, but I would like it if you guys either support our Lynch target or dont vote at all (atleast initially). It will also be helpful for us to see who all oppose today's Lynch.
 
Walrein said:
]1. The mafia is Gale and feared that BT would be able to successfully convince us on his scumread.
-I find this one to be a bit sketchy. While it's true that Gale has been known to overreact to things like this in the past, it seems to me that he's mellowed considerably as of late, and I feel like he knows better than to make this sort of blunder. Also, I agree with DLE in that I don't think scum!Gale makes that night post.
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AFAIK DLE was the only one scumreading Spiffy, so he seems like a pretty safe "this guy is both experienced and towny" kill. I honestly don't think we can glean a whole lot of information from that one other than a slight lean towards at least one bigger name perhaps being on that team, simply because he died and they didn't.
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DLE seems town to me. His posting when it's scum seems pre-planned and carefully constructed, and I'm not getting that vibe this game. I also doubt he would be on the team that killed Spiffy if he was scum, since he was one of the few people that had a scum read on him.
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And then

HOWEVER I think that there is something to this DLE-Gale connection, simply because I can see scum Gale bussing his partner to look better.
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That's not how it works either buddy. Step up your lying game son
 
I am so confused wtf Gale is even talking about.

Also Walrein I sort of agree with your analysis except that you avoid talking about either me or Yeti and I could completely see you being on the team that killed Spiffy (are we calling that Team 1?).

Finally I want everyone to answer a question: If you are mafia during the last night who would you have killed (and give like 2-3 of your top choices)?

I eagerly await some people's thoughts on this question because I think that forcing everyone to imagine themselves from a mafia perspective last night will yield interesting results. Some will doubtless manufacture reasons why they wouldn't have killed the deceased, some will say they would've (but obviously they didn't), and some will provide meaningful reasons for why they would've killed others. One thing though: IF YOU WOULD'VE KILLED SOMEONE DUE TO SUSPECTING THAT SOMEONE WAS DOCTOR, DO NOT MENTION IT. This ought to go without saying but I'm never surprised by the things people post in this game anymore.

Obviously outside of this please provide updated reads on as many people as possible.

Finally I don't think Walrein's post was inaccurate in any way DLE, could you be more specific about what you dislike about it? I think he could well be mafia because I could absolutely see him making that post if he is mafia and I suspect that Spiffy might've been Walrein's choice for a kill if he is mafia last night, but I'm not seeing what your point is or why Walrein is lying. There's a weird connection between you and Gale and it is not even remotely as ridiculous as you are making it out to be.
 
UncleSam said:
I am so confused wtf Gale is even talking about.
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Wow US acting like he doesn't know stuff? That has never happened in all the time I have played the game @_@
UncleSam said:
Finally I want everyone to answer a question: If you are mafia during the last night who would you have killed (and give like 2-3 of your top choices)?

I eagerly await some people's thoughts on this question because I think that forcing everyone to imagine themselves from a mafia perspective last night will yield interesting results. Some will doubtless manufacture reasons why they wouldn't have killed the deceased, some will say they would've (but obviously they didn't), and some will provide meaningful reasons for why they would've killed others. One thing though: IF YOU WOULD'VE KILLED SOMEONE DUE TO SUSPECTING THAT SOMEONE WAS DOCTOR, DO NOT MENTION IT. This ought to go without saying but I'm never surprised by the things people post in this game anymore.
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This is an unnecessary distraction tactic. This is an opportunity for the scums to confuse us more. I don't think we should venture into this at all.

Walrein you don't want the new players to lead the Lynch today?
 
He backed out of his only remotely strong or supported reads of gale being town and me being town bar his vote by then throwing out the "oh but this argument sounds good too" at the end which communicates cognitive dissonance at best and lying at worst
 
DLE: I was pointing out a scenario in which the two of you could be scum because I still think it's entirely possible. The fact that I think it's more likely that you're town shouldn't stop me from discussing alternate possibilities.

Sam: Yea, killing Spiffy is probably what I would have done if I were scum - either that or Yeti after the HD flip, since her reads seem to have been relatively accurate thus far.

Gale: I have no problem with newer players leading the lynch but at the same time I'd like to win, thanks
 
Da Letter El said:
He backed out of his only remotely strong or supported reads of gale being town and me being town bar his vote by then throwing out the "oh but this argument sounds good too" at the end which communicates cognitive dissonance at best and lying at worst
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DLE, I think it is confused Town at best and Lazy town at worst. I would give Walrein the benefit of doubt for me being difficult to read.

I think half the game has said so, so I don't know why you would single out Walrein in this. You have said so yourself, that my plays are scummy, but your read on me is slight town, and that you haven't been able to read me concretely.

If this is your reaction to my post about the Newbie's leading the Lynch, then don't worry we are not going to Lynch you.

I think it is beneficial for one scum team, if the town lynches one player from the opposing scum team today. Because that makes things easier for them in the end game. So I would like the other scum team to vote with us today, to make it an easier lynch. (Or not vote at all, if you think that is better)
 
'Unnecessary distraction tactic' what are you talking about. I'm trying to force people to contribute in any way I can.

I do 'know stuff' you're just not making any sense. I've already explained how the lynch is going to happen because it's going to happen precisely how every single other lynch will happen: people will make arguments about who they feel is scum, and a majority will come to a consensus around which reasons they find most persuasive. We are not going to appoint some 'village/discussion leader' in a fucking NOC game, especially one without a cop. I'm not going to wait for you or anyone else to say that it is now ok to vote, or who to vote, or what I can or can't ask people to contribute because I feel that it will help me and others locate the mafia.

If you don't want to answer my question, fine, noted. But that's exactly what I'd expect someone who has something to hide to say. It is not a distraction tactic and people are welcome to bring up other avenues of discussion; I'm asking this question because I think it will help identify who is thinking about things from an unusual perspective or a perspective that I would not expect if that person were town.

Now stop saying stupid things and give your reads on the kills. Who do you think would've wanted to kill Spiffy? What about ButteredToast?
 
UncleSam said:
Finally I want everyone to answer a question: If you are mafia during the last night who would you have killed (and give like 2-3 of your top choices)?
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My first thought is Walrein, because he hasn't been seen as particularly scummy so far but has the potential to get good reads and contributions in the game. I would kill him since he doesn't have much of a connection to me, and set up someone who would've had more incentive to kill him/shut him up.
I definitely don't kill someone I see as suspicious or a viable lynch target the next day, IE UncleSam, Spiffy or Celever. No, they're a waste of a kill because they would be someone I could push a lynch on to save myself or my partner from being lynched.

Gale Wing Srock said:
Walrein you don't want the new players to lead the Lynch today?
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I don't think this is a good idea either considering who you are counting as a new player includes quite possibly two scums. Like, if you guys can't contribute your reads and gun for certain lynches without experienced/loud players stepping aside and NOT contributing, why are you playing this game? Every other player urges the 'new players' to contribute and pings them multiple times a cycle to post. There is no reason they cannot post and state their lynch targets while the rest of the game also posts.

Honestly this is a really, really weird tactic and makes NO SENSE. Why do you only want the new players to post when people like acidphoenix and PokeguyNXB have been under hot suspicion? You want most of the game to sit back and let their slight-strong scum reads take control? You yourself are viewed as suspicious by many people, including myself, and I do not trust your judgement at all. If anything you are trying to stifle people from scumhunting. Why? Because your scumbuddy actually IS DLE and you want to shut up the experienced players who are onto this?

And what in the WORLD is this?

Gale Wing Srock said:
So I would like the other scum team to vote with us today, to make it an easier lynch.
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Uh? Of course every scum possible is going to vote in whatever lynch gets pushed hardest so they seem village, like the villagers who will vote in it. I am sure, had HD actually been mafia, the other three would have/could have voted for him all the same.

idk this logic is weird af and seems poised to stop the experienced players from properly scumhunting and fleshing out the newbies who try to float by and coast with their non-content posts.
 
If you are mafia during the last night who would you have killed (and give like 2-3 of your top choices)?
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I kill Yeti there almost every time; 0 chance of protection after the shade UncleSam and I threw at her on day 1 as well as her own admitted attempts to appear less than clear. Also has the added benefit of setting up an easy UncleSam mislynch as well as making my push on Spiffy even easier without other people to try to redirect where the lynch could go. If I psych myself out too much and I get scared I kill ButteredToast or UltrasPlot for being in my mind certain townies.
 
Gale Wing Srock said:
DLE, I think it is confused Town at best and Lazy town at worst. I would give Walrein the benefit of doubt for me being difficult to read.

I think half the game has said so, so I don't know why you would single out Walrein in this. You have said so yourself, that my plays are scummy, but your read on me is slight town, and that you haven't been able to read me concretely.
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It's not that; it's the way he did it. He did it in such a way that felt like he was making shit up as he was going on about his thoughts on the game and wasn't trying to actually find mafia. It read like he was just trying to regurgitate some stuff he heard before but threw in a meta read on me which happens to be generally true on the side, and then invalidated his own meta read by agreeing with the possible gale/dle scumteam without any reasons as to why, as if he wanted to support that argument because it served his interest but he didn't really know how to go about doing so
 
Da Letter El said:
I kill Yeti there almost every time; 0 chance of protection after the shade UncleSam and I threw at her on day 1 as well as her own admitted attempts to appear less than clear. Also has the added benefit of setting up an easy UncleSam mislynch as well as making my push on Spiffy even easier without other people to try to redirect where the lynch could go. If I psych myself out too much and I get scared I kill ButteredToast or UltrasPlot for being in my mind certain townies.
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I'm not sure I 100% buy this. Given that Yeti was one of HD's strongest supporters, don't you think it's somewhat likely Yeti gets protected last night?

Also your post strongly implies that you think I'm town, and yet you've been throwing a LOT of shade my way this day. This seems inconsistent to me, what gives?

I note that you don't kill Gale, and yet you seemed to be just as certain he was town as either BT or UltrasPlot yesterday (and today, and during the night after his post). Why not? Also, why has your opinion on Gale gone from 'My Gale reads are doomed to be horrible this game' to 'Gale is the most certain 100% townie in this game'? Wouldn't one preclude the other?

I buy that Walrein would've killed Spiffy or Yeti, and I buy that Yeti would've killed Walrein. This doesn't preclude Yeti from being mafia because if she were mafia she might well have killed either Spiffy or BT depending on who her partner is (though it's hard to imagine that a Yeti+anyone scumteam kills BT last night). I think DLE actually is making a good point about Walrein because while Walrein more or less agrees with my points, he is coming at it from a slightly different (but an IMPORTANTLY distinct) perspective. It sounds like he is mostly regurgitating what I'm saying (similar to what Celever has been doing most of this game) while trying to change things up just enough to be 'contributing' and yet becoming inconsistent in the process. I'd like to hear more from him.

I'm honestly conflicted what the best course of action is regarding this lynch, though. I think that Pokeguy is objectively our strongest lead at the moment, but honestly...pressuring him isn't likely to get much done. I'm not sure anything will happen with the current votes on him and I don't want others to go without feeling any pressure, so I'm going to Unvote and Vote Celever in the hopes that this will force him to address the various points made against him AS WELL AS answering my questions and providing analyses on who he thinks would be responsible for those kills.

Know this, however, PokeguyNXB and acidphoenix: I am not going to let you skate by this day. Post something substantial by tomorrow night, and respond to at least the major points of discussion while providing reads on as many people as you feel anything about. Do not take my unvoting you Pokeguy as a sign that I'm dropping pressure from you; I'm simply applying some momentarily where I feel it will actually produce a response much faster.
 
Yeti if experienced townies are not going to let the Newbies lead. Then I see scums winning this game 100%.

I can play the regular game; but the thing is with the regular game the experienced scums will most certainly win in this format. Because all they have to do is target the day lynch to newbie towns, and night kill either to support their day Lynches or to take out experienced people.

If you are not scum, then I am most certain that you would be the target of one of the scum teams tonight. Its that simple.

This game is not similar to a 3 Scum - 12 / 14 Townies. It is like three teams, out of which two have been coordinating between themselves brilliantly.

Neither have the two scum teams hit each other, nor have they hit the same target. Neither of their kills were blocked by our doc, and it is possible that BT was our doc.

If we go by the orthodox method of scum hunting. PokeguyNXB or me would be lynched today. And then its GG if the scums coordinate their night kills brilliantly one more time.

Because that means 4 scums and 3 Townies would be left. Then the scums would try to get each other lynched, to make it 2:1 scum ratio and would get two townies killed at night.

By Day 4 it would be 3 Scums and one Townie left, and the scum team who managed to reach that stage with two members win the game.
 
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