NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.

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Celever said:
Actually what you say is buddying by rssp1 I see as towny play. He's going with his own reads as opposed to following the trends of the consensus which is a trap a few mafia get into when trying to cause lynches. And no, I don't think his arguments are particularly baseless.

And I've felt that rssp1 might be the doc for a while; I haven't seen anything hinting at you being doc. And how you claimed was really lackluster.

Also like jumpluff said in the above post, you didn't answer my point at all.

jumpluff, I have a question for you. It seems like right now the players are split as you = town, then the scum teams are comprised of Celever/Pokeguy and UTO/rssp1. Assume that UTO flips mafia, which of me and Pokeguy do you think you're likeliest to lynch tomorrow do you think? Assume that rssp1 flips mafia and answer the same question. I just sort of want to gauge your opinions on me and Pokeguy right now.


I think that a major post which makes me think rssp1 is town is when rssp1 tried to bait me into claiming doc (I saw it at the time too lol. Not the most subtle thing in the world, but I'm vanillager so it wouldn't have worked had I not noticed anyway).


Right you are. I think I must've misread it the first time as he never checked the PM at all, not that he checked it once and then not again after that.
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ok I just thought of more to add so I might as well

rssp1 never had any scumreads on everyone; that is very troubling. It seemed like he wasn't trying to make anyone angry; playing it very safe. Because of this, it wouldn't be too difficult to add you in as a strong townread, since it wouldn't really be saying too much, considering he had 0 scumreads at the moment. Buddying is far more likely.

Can you please say how I didn't answer your point, yet you can still type out the last sentence and not change your viewpoint at all?

rssp1 baiting you into claiming doctor could easily be a scumteam's work of art. He knew you weren't doctor, so there was no risk in not doing that. Plus, after knowing that you wouldn't claim doctor, he would easily be able to false claim afterwards and say "oh i was fishing, just seeing if i could get a scum through that" making him look cleaner.
 
triple post ugh, but jumpluff while you were voting me I think I was working on my acidphoenix scumread, and how he was a better lynch; after that, I saw the vote and decided to make a detailed response; I didn't think that I would be hammered soon, and you two unvoted immediately iirc, so I saw no need in actually continuing it because most of it was reliant on the fact that I was saying I was the doctor
 
Celever said:
jumpluff, I have a question for you. It seems like right now the players are split as you = town, then the scum teams are comprised of Celever/Pokeguy and UTO/rssp1. Assume that UTO flips mafia, which of me and Pokeguy do you think you're likeliest to lynch tomorrow do you think? Assume that rssp1 flips mafia and answer the same question. I just sort of want to gauge your opinions on me and Pokeguy right now.
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acidphoenix, because if the other Fire Mafia doesn't die tonight and I live, then that's who I lynch.

:p

But answering the spirit of your question:

If rssp1 flips mafia, I lynch Celever with probably zero hesitation. PokeguyNXB is a wildcard but I see no reason in this situation not to stick to my townread. HOWEVER, this is why I need PGNXB to post, and develop independently his own opinions. I tend to second guess myself a lot, which is disastrous because I'm as much an intuitive player as an analytic one. In reality this situation will probably never happen where I'm the arbiter between you and PGNXB. So you guys need to figure out your opinions about each other too and be willing to adjust them based on the day and night.

If UTO flips mafia, I'm more torn tbh. I believe you're both competent enough here that Celever + UTO is the scariest Fire Mafia, and my townread on PGNXB is based on a lot flimsier evidence than any read I can manage on you. But I think Celever + UTO is becoming more contrived of a possibility. However, I can't say with certainty. If the only info I have is 'UTO is mafia', I lynch PokeguyNXB. But if I have seen all of this day then that might be subject to change.

Agreed with UTO about my problem with that post of rssp1's which is something I think I at least vaguely addressed in my major post earlier but very WIFOM, because the post makes sense either way. However I will note that rssp1 has been playing absurdly cautiously, especially if they're doctor, in which case trying to bait Celever into confirming they're mafia but in the process strongly signalling or even confirming they're doctor is a very huge risk for disproportionately lower reward.

a. Celever false claims to save his skin, gets lynched incorrectly, would 100% deserve it as he acknowledged since it'd be an awful play
b. Celever doesn't claim town, no proof either way whether Celever is town or mafia
c. rssp1 is fishing because UTO has already signalled about the doctor and the only ambiguity left is me and let's be real, there's no way I wouldn't have protected Yeti in that situation, or UncleSam if I was trying to anticipate the kills (I already spent the night phase thinking about who each person would protect if they were doctor to be prepared for the deaths, which I was shocked by), in which case it still has a possibility of backfiring... unless Celever and rssp1 are allied, in which case it's guaranteed not to backfire, especially if they talked about this in the night phase beforehand

Thank you for responding everyone
 
In turn: Celever how would you feel about lynching someone who is neither rssp1 nor U-Turn Out. In my case this means you or PokeguyNXB but in your case this just means PokeguyNXB. But I'm interested in what you think about it conceptually and what it would mean for village chances of success.
 
U-Turn Out said:
I'll respond to this later (probably tmrw, school sucks) along with my previous posts regarding the doctor situation, but what I understood from Celever's point was that if I were mafia I would know the setup, while if I were town I wouldn't. I have stated that being mafia wouldn't give me knowledge of the setup, which makes his point invalid. As I said before, I followed this thread a while ago, so the knowledge probably came from one of the posts (I cant really remember, I'll try to find something if you want but I'm pretty sure that's how the knowledge came. Not the best response, but it's the truth

Also to Celever: I forgot to mention that you voted rssp1 at the beginning of the day with invalid logic but with strong confidence. Care to elaborate on how he suddenly turned into a doc read?
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Being mafia would tell you the setup because you would see that you've only got one buddy, make a sensible assumption that the other mafia is the same and then find out we have a doc by reading the thread. It doesn't exactly directly incriminate you beyond reasonable doubt, but I think it's not a bad shout and certainly doesn't help you out.
U-Turn Out said:
also I'll just answer quickly that she said it was literally impossible for me to be on a scum team with rssp1, the scumteams she described were UTO/Pokeguy, Celever/rssp1, Celever/UTO
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That wasn't what I asked. Read more carefully please Dx
U-Turn Out said:
ok I just thought of more to add so I might as well

rssp1 never had any scumreads on everyone; that is very troubling. It seemed like he wasn't trying to make anyone angry; playing it very safe. Because of this, it wouldn't be too difficult to add you in as a strong townread, since it wouldn't really be saying too much, considering he had 0 scumreads at the moment. Buddying is far more likely.
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Oh, no doubt he's been playing cautiously. He's been playing like a power role, actually.
Can you please say how I didn't answer your point, yet you can still type out the last sentence and not change your viewpoint at all?
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My point wasn't completely based on that statement because my point was made before you made that statement.
rssp1 baiting you into claiming doctor could easily be a scumteam's work of art. He knew you weren't doctor, so there was no risk in not doing that. Plus, after knowing that you wouldn't claim doctor, he would easily be able to false claim afterwards and say "oh i was fishing, just seeing if i could get a scum through that" making him look cleaner.
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It's a possible theory, but it's pretty out there, you gotta admit.

And jumpluff, unfortunately what you said in response to my question... makes sense. rssp1 has definitely been on my side the whole game which could be him creating ties between us in the event he's lynched, but I do read it more like he's just a townie and he's trusting his leads. One thing I have to say is that you said yourself that me and UTO would be a scary combination for a scumteam since we're both decently competent. Let's not forget that if we're to believe acid the Fire Mafia killed Yeti last night I think. This is definitely more likely to be acid.

Gotta go to dentist now, I'll answer your question ASAP.
 
I still don't know if I agree acid killed UncleSam, but it's plausible to me. If he did then I don't think he thought it through very well or else he lied about his reasoning. I think US would be a good kill if you wanted to hit village, and out of all the players, acid is the most likely to go for a kill on someone who declared doctor on themselves. Yeti, US, and I were all perfectly happy to lynch him, there was no way for him to kill out of that situation with only one kill. US was also the one threatening the hypothetical lone mafia at the time. I'm not sure why he would lie except for the hell of it though, there is nothing we can derive from knowing that except more knowledge about the Fire Mafia (so acidphoenix please confirm for once and for all if you stick by your story that you killed UncleSam, literally all we want is to know who the Fire Mafia killed), which helps him too. And I believe 100% the Ice Mafia killed Spiffy, do you think he told the truth about only half of that or do you think Walrein (who is now UTO) killed Spiffy as the Fire Mafia? However, say acid was telling the truth, then he was making a huge risky play already by aiming for US (instead of you who he thought was townier than US apparently?), it makes a thousand times more sense to go for US than Yeti unless he wanted to hit the village (and thus lied). And Ice Mafia has way more reason to kill Fire Mafia than vice versa, I thought this is transparent to probably everyone in the game tbh.

Yeti was actually a pretty good kill if you wagered the doctor was likeliest to be on me or UncleSam (something both Fire and Ice Mafia probably assumed at least one of), the doctor couldn't protect all three of us at once so the most sensible person to go for was Yeti because you could be assured she was town in more cases than I was but also she was attracting way less attention as a villager (and her reads may have been concerning for certain players, because they differed from mine and US's, which mostly coincided except on rssp1). There was no way she was the solo mafia, a line of thinking you have agreed to previously (or was that UTO, idr, I can't type in most programs due to memory issues with my PC), that it would be unlikely she was scum and I was town. Also because I know Yeti's alliance, if she dies I no longer have that info advantage. Which is far likelier a line of thinking to have come from the Fire Mafia imo but might be a little Advanced. However since the Fire Mafia were likely looking to hit town instead of the Ice Mafia then I think either kill works for them but they have more incentive than the Ice Mafia to kill Yeti, especially because there's no way Yeti is mafia without being my partner (and the Fire Mafia know this is impossible since one of the Ice Mafia died, so therefore they can hit her safely). I need to go back and check Yeti's reads.
 
Finally I don't consider it that out there a theory that rssp1 could've pretended to fish. I considered over and over again false claiming doctor today to bait out the true doctor (almost negating the possibility of a counterclaim, but making it clearer who is scummer if we have three doctor claims) because I felt I was the only town member with the leverage to do that, but too likely to derail the day and this way by just asking the doctor to out I can bait out a mafia. Also I think rssp1 had more incentive to false claim than UTO in that situation, but UTO may have felt more under the hammer than they actually were (plus UTO still has to convince other people they're town in the eventuality I die and cease to nullread.) I think to false claim to fish in that situation as mafia is awful play in that situation, the Fire Mafia need to get through this day unlynched more than they need to know who the doctor is, so I'm discarding it as a reasonable play. I do think it's interesting that neither allowed for the possibility I was the doctor (probably because I'm playing very vocally), rssp1 did go last though after I'd had the chance to counterclaim UTO. But that's a time zone and activity thing as well (because UTO and I are very often active in the thread together, as are Celever and I) and reading into that super sucks.

I dunno, I've milked my brain for thoughts now. I just need to read everyone's posts again.
 
Sorry, was asleep.

Quite honestly i'm still leaning on a Celever lynch today, because i'm extremely unsure who between UTO and rssp is scum, and Celever is essentially confirmed to me as MY cc for last vanilla who isn't jumpluff. Basically this whole game except for jumpluff and acid have ccs, so there's at least one Fire Mafia member confirmed to those of us who are town (me and whoever is real doc) unless the extremely unlikely situation of jumpluff being Fire is true.

So yeah, in a nutshell a Celever lynch seems to be the best option fmpov, we're almost confirmed scum to each other
 
jumpluff said:
In turn: Celever how would you feel about lynching someone who is neither rssp1 nor U-Turn Out. In my case this means you or PokeguyNXB but in your case this just means PokeguyNXB. But I'm interested in what you think about it conceptually and what it would mean for village chances of success.
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Well, obviously to me Pokeguy is now confirmed scum, which is kinda weird because I read Pokeguy's play as town all game, but he's not as towny as you are, jumpluff. I just want to say now that you played really great this game, Pokeguy, so kudos to you for that. Though people like US and stuff read you are scum anyway.

Anyway, the time I've played on epicmafia makes me inclined to go for the cops because that's just what we do when we play classic on there. There's really no preference either way logically though, and it's just as useful to lynch between blues. I feel like a lot of people find UTO scummy enough for him to be optimal lynch; I don't think that you guys can agree on a lynch between me and Pokeguy so well, because obviously rssp1 thinks I'm town but I think jumpluff thinks Pokeguy is townier (he seems kind of undecided in general though). With UTO and rssp1 I think everyone believes rssp1 and no one believes UTO, so it's preferable to go for that lynch. I can't tell if I'm making any sense really lol.
 
Ok, well I know that Pokeguy is mafia, so I'm just gonna...

Lynch PokeguyNXB

I think that it'd be useful to lynch between cops while we have the opinions flying around, but at the same time this is a much safer lynch (at least FMPOV) because Pokeguy IS scum and we(I) know this.
 
Reading back and already found something worth mentioning

Celever said:
Well, obviously to me Pokeguy is now confirmed scum, which is kinda weird because I read Pokeguy's play as town all game, but he's not as towny as you are, jumpluff. I just want to say now that you played really great this game, Pokeguy, so kudos to you for that. Though people like US and stuff read you are scum anyway.

Anyway, the time I've played on epicmafia makes me inclined to go for the cops because that's just what we do when we play classic on there. There's really no preference either way logically though, and it's just as useful to lynch between blues. I feel like a lot of people find UTO scummy enough for him to be optimal lynch; I don't think that you guys can agree on a lynch between me and Pokeguy so well, because obviously rssp1 thinks I'm town but I think jumpluff thinks Pokeguy is townier (he seems kind of undecided in general though). With UTO and rssp1 I think everyone believes rssp1 and no one believes UTO, so it's preferable to go for that lynch. I can't tell if I'm making any sense really lol.
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Celever said:
Ok, well I know that Pokeguy is mafia, so I'm just gonna...

Lynch PokeguyNXB

I think that it'd be useful to lynch between cops while we have the opinions flying around, but at the same time this is a much safer lynch (at least FMPOV) because Pokeguy IS scum and we(I) know this.
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Why are you saying a lynch between UTO/me is better... and then lynching pokeguy? I get the "confirmed mafia" thing that would be in your mind, but that seems rather contradictory to advise doing one thng and then do another.
Yes i saw the part where you said pokeguy is scum from your view, so i'm assuming you did that because acid lynched pokeguy... but if that's not the reason, why did you do so?
 
acid why are you randomly lynching people without considering how early majority can be reached? If I would have voted instead of Celever, you do realize how rssp1 and celever can lynch him and end the day? It was an example, but still, it's very antitown. And Celever, you know better than to bandwagon. And only one person has an opinion on the doctor, and that's you, so it's not saying much. I'm also agreeing with rssp1 as much as I don't want to, Celever's post was pretty terrible. Pokeguy's post was pretty well thought out and decent so I'm leaning town on him over Celever.
 
U-Turn Out said:
Honestly I shouldn't be too annoyed, but school just started and I just don't need to deal with a fake doc claim on top of all the work. I may not have evidence, but I'm at least trying to contribute while you're just talking about the problems with your connections with Celever without even trying to change them or really try to make a case. I'm actually putting some effort into my posts instead of laughing hahahaha and not posting anything else. And you were the one who cced me, not I cced you. Also, I know a definite scum, it's you! And about jumpluff, it really seems like you haven't really read the thread carefully. Almost everything points to jumpluff being town, and I have no idea why you would think otherwise. If you want to actually make a case about it, please don't, it'll be a waste of our time.


There are three options for people being my scumpartner. jumpluff (you already established this), Celever (who is somehow very towny), and PokeguyNXB (the only real option you havent considered already). I'm sorry if I'm doing exactly what you don't want, but I don't find this behavior helpful to the town or truthful at all. And for the last time, there is NO point in trying to build a case for jumpluff being mafia. Your best buddy Celever can tell you that as well. But I guess I'll have to make a short summary for you to not waste your time. I don't know if you know this or not, but jumpluff subbed in knowing Yeti's alliance. I doubt the host would have made jumpluff scum when Yeti was town (town/town would have been more likely, but still a terrible error from our host). US and Yeti both had extremely solid town reads on jumpluff, making her look very clean. On top of that, 100% of her posts have been helpful to town. I think I've covered enough already.
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So personal attacks aside, you're telling me that I haven't done anything useful and that i'm not reading carefully because i think there's a chance that jumpluff could not be town.
I mean, as far as I see it we've done the same thing - express a couple scumreads with meager evidence, and then defend ourselves a lot. You also can't exactly say that i'm trying to not contribute unless you're somehow a mind-reader - and I doubt that. Also, I think it's arguably one of the most stupid things you could do to automatically clear someone. Yes, you can state that they're incredibly townie and that you probably won't get anything from them, but just going "eh, they're 100% town" and not looking to see if there's anything scummy is stupid. Sure, perhaps spending your time on doing so may be wasteful, but in some cases, its the key to winning games (when playing against skilled mafia).
I also have no idea what you're trying to get at when you say "i'm sorry if im doing exactly what you dont want" since there isn't really anything in that post addressed to you.
 
jumpluff said:
above has an important line of thinking (riskiness) I would like rssp1 to address
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I honestly didn't think it showed that I was doctor, I was angling for the concerned villager persona. Then again, I am apparently not good at hiding that i'm the doc, even though I dont see anywhere that I softclaimed or implied that I was doc.
I also remember something asking me to find all the posts where i softed doc, although I can't find the post (yay me)

so to answer that....

I never intentionally softed that I was the doc, yet apparently I play cautiously and that makes me seem doccy. I don't have any posts to bring up.
In all seriousness though, I think thats just my playstyle on forum mafia, go look at fallout (where I was alive for 1 day before i got subbed bc rip computer) and my playstyle should be the same.
 
UTO you think luff is definite town, and if PokeguyNXB wasn't scrum then her/Celever was? And Celever was the one who voted? And that there aren't enough Fire Mafia to QH off my one vote, WHICH was first? And why the he'll are you telling at me and not Celever? The more you talk the more scummy you seem over here.. right now you + Pokeguy seems the most likely to me.

Also, from my PoV, lynching the villy or lynching the scum cc are equal, since I proceed to kill the other of the two.

Also to keep in mind: lynching docs helps against scumpluff. I'm fine with switching to one of them if you want and as I just said doc which.
 
The fact that he questioned whether I actually killed US in a way that to me didn't seem as intentional deception.
Also, he's at L-2, and why are you complaining to me and not to Celever, considering that you've established that Celever is scum, meaning there aren't enough scum to hammer?
 
I'm really bored right now so posting random crap

After thinking about it more I decided that it would be better to kill either Celever or Jumpluff if we kill a fake doctor, because then the Fire Mafia have 25% win chances if they aim for me instead of fifty, due to the chance I hit the doc target.

If the real doc or a real villager is lynched then I'll at least take a fire down with me, rip me.

If the fake villy is killed I'll kill the real villager(not luff) for the same reasons I would kill Celever or fluff on fake doc lynch.

After typing all this I really understand how important it is for Fire to be lynched for me as well as town.
 
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