I'd be cautious about ascribing "clear scum behavior" to me when no one (myself included, the only time I've been mafia is irl so there's not exactly the chance to use a scum chat lol) knows how I'd act if I were mafia. Wrt activity, personal circumstances have changed such that I'm less able to be staring at the thread 24/7 in addition to no longer having that first game anxiety/need to be impactful, I'm more comfortable with watching for concerns and trying to spark things with more purpose, as with when I put additional pressure on shubaka. Moreover my role in the previous noc as a hunter was one where it made sense for me to play hyperactive and die early to give town information, in comparison one where I and apparently every other town is a vanillager it makes less sense to do so as I no longer have the ability to gain specific information for the town in addition to my own role being unprovable barring inspection afaik. Makes more sense to be patient and observant.
I will note that I didn't ask for other voting strategies as you both seem to think, I simply said that I was open to other lines of reasoning as the one that I was using on my current vote was no longer applicable. On a similar note, to twin, I have a bit of a bad habit of addressing the predictable scum argument against a certain post or line of reasoning that can be made against me before that argument is made. In this case pre-addressing comments that could be made about my shub target. I did it a few times in neighborhood too, ironically making me look scummier each time.
Walrein, I'll do specific player reads once I'm on my laptop and can more easily cross reference posts, nvm I'll do it now by posting thoughts as I go through the posts, though as I mentioned before I'm yet to notice anything specifically scummy from people. That being said I am getting strong town reads from twin, he's acting consistently with how he has in the past and his logic against players, myself included, is consistent with how he looks for mafia as a town (whether he's right or not is another matter, but his thought processes are consistent). You I've read as slightly towny from your early game inasfar as driving discussion and seeking to clarify situations in ways that are beneficial for town but I'm wary of the possibility that you're moling for scum, I haven't seen any hard town indicators and you're more than skilled enough to pull off such a play.
Former hope and blazade start as opposing slightly town and slightly scum depending on what you think scum motivations are for wanting or not wanting lynch. Dentricos too on the same side of FH at page 2. Blazade then backs up his arguments with very sound logic, with arguments that one would think would be very counterproductive where he scum, looks more towny (thus suggesting FH/Dent as either slightly scum or null depending on interpretation of reasoning for no lynch preference). Walrein makes a pair of posts supporting the two aforementioned, both falling into my previous read for you. I don't like hawkie's post at all. His attack on aubisio seems less based in fact and more based in gut reads and attempts to create emotional appeal (fake as fuck, shitpost, "joke"). Aubisio's first post is easily interpreted bas rules clarification especially in RVS and coming down hard on that with only "posts are filler" as reasoning looks bad to me. The question there is would the mafia jump onto a hard attack branch this early or is that the play of a town trying to get information from pressure. I'd lean 60-65% scum but wouldn't be surprised if the scum were lurking/playing ambiguous. Twin's lynch on me is consistent with how he applies pressure, beta posting activity and nothing else is slightly scummy. Nothing of note until twin v me and blazade lynch on josh, haruno posting twice and saying nothing except for setup comments is suspicious. FH posts sheeping popular opinion without providing anything new, null post with slightly scum indication. Bunch of posts speculating on how I'd act.
Josh, betathunder, dentricos, haruno, and flyhn have all been super quiet relative to how they normally are, I'd expect one or two with two being the more likely option depending on how many scum there are to come from that group.
Including Rssp1 and pancake as people that haven't posted much that could rise to three.
Twin is my strongest town read, hawkie strongest scum read, the rest are varying levels of slightly scum and slightly town as expanded on before.
Considering that analysis I'd want the lynch either on hawkie or on betathunder. Hawkie would seemingly be the safe lynch but he's also an easy lynch for mafia to push if he is town, and having seen that happen basically every time in the two previous NOCs I'm wary. Betathunder is the other good lynch target imo, his single post had no content and I think the most likely scenario is that he's idling to avoid target while others throw themselves on their swords. Considering that, lynch betathunder
Hope that sufficiently answers your concerns walrein
