NOC Paranoia Mafia Game Over - Mafia Wins

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Former Hope said:
Oh yeah, I was going to explain the Walrein being scummy. For me, Walrein is scummy in part just because they are acting a ton like DLE was in the basic game (where DLE was scum). Essentially, DLE acted towny by leading discussions, but otherwise would vanish for large parts of the day, especially towards the end of the day. Walrein is claiming to be busy in rl which might be true, but the fact it's following the same cycle as DLE just doesn't bode well I feel.

That said, I also think last nights kill makes it seem like Walrein is being framed which in turn, makes them seem more town to me.
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Why do you give credit to walrein for playing a complex scum game then throw off it by saying something that would align with a complex scum game makes you less weary of him? I don't think its at all past a scum walrein to kill an obvious target for mafia then pass off by saying 'of course i wouldnt do that obvious thing!'

Former Hope said:
Why would I be the preferred lynch over someone like Aubisio (who would be my target for lynching tomorrow if Texas flips town for some reason)? Your immediate push towards lynching me (something Texas was trying to do yesterday) is really sort of scummy when there are far scummier people out there.
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Aubisio is already my preferred lynch for today, but if texas is the lynch and flips town im more prone to chasing after you. I'd still chase after aubisio, but you look a lot scummier in a texas town flip. you said youd pull your vote off if you got to hammer, and your lynching focus today seems to be on lynching someone who voted for haruno. You'd probably pull the same shit tomorrow after pulling your vote and try to frame someone who lynched texas off if he flips town. If you want my full summary of why i dislike your posts this game i can also provide it. Theres been specific moments where I've seen play highly consistent with how id play a scum game in a vanilla.

do remember that was a hypothetical 'texas flips town' scenario. If he flips scum my views obviously change

rssp1 said:
Asek what are your thoughts on everyone left in the game (if you haven't already said them). Do any specific posts from the previous 2 days stand out to you as extremely townie or extremely scummy? You may have picked something up that the rest of us have missed thus far.
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I gave my sort of solution on last page, but since then ive become increasingly more displeased with former hope and aubisio and honestly want one of those 2 gone today more than texas.
 
i may be subbing out because i'm slammed irl

you can wifom about it all you want but killing josh is never something i do as scum in that situation

still haven't gotten to go back and read yesterday

asek for lock town

rssp is giving me a weird gut feeling that i cannot corroborate in any meaningful way rn

former hope's posts all feel really stiff but i think that's just how he types

i hear there were some weird EoD shenanigans involving texas and dentricos and i was already suspicious of the former so my readthrough will focus there, i think
 
frankly the josh kill seems to indicate a more inexperienced scumteam

because from my pov it's either:
a. a clumsy attempt at framing me
b. a misguided attempt at killing someone towny - correct me if i'm wrong, but josh iirc was far from universally townread

i think option a is more likely, and would seem to indicate a scumteam made up of players who are fairly intelligent, but may be less experienced in how forum mafia actually works

which imo makes twin look better and texas (among others) look worse

asek i want your thoughts on this theory
 
without having read the second half of yesterday, here's where i'm at right now

towny, don't want to consider lynching today:
asek
hawkie
om room
twin

shady/sketchy/scummy/weird gut feelings:
texas
dentricos (mainly based on association w/ texas)
rssp1

please play the game:
aubisio

shrug emoji:
everyone else
 
Asek said:
Why do you give credit to walrein for playing a complex scum game then throw off it by saying something that would align with a complex scum game makes you less weary of him? I don't think its at all past a scum walrein to kill an obvious target for mafia then pass off by saying 'of course i wouldnt do that obvious thing!'
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Former Hope said:
Actually, Josh was trying to lynch Walrein all of yesterday so my line of thought is that either Walrein is scum and killed Josh (less likely) or more likely, scum are trying to frame walrein as I don't see them killing off their accuser. Then again, it could be some tricky double play all in all, for me personally Walrein seems more towny from this.
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I mean, as you can see I literally stated that it could be a double play. Other than that though, Walrein has suggested some fairly pro town logic, which again could be double plays. However there's a point when everything becomes way to flippity and ultimately, while Walrein could be doing some complex scum game, I draw the line in that it's probably not what's going on here. If things keep changing around, I'll change my views as Walrein is no where near confirmed town for me, I just find it easier to assume it's not a double play going on than to assume everything they do is.


Asek said:
Aubisio is already my preferred lynch for today, but if texas is the lynch and flips town im more prone to chasing after you. I'd still chase after aubisio, but you look a lot scummier in a texas town flip. you said youd pull your vote off if you got to hammer, and your lynching focus today seems to be on lynching someone who voted for haruno.
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I mean, I'd look scummier in the vote because...I'm actually posting and playing? That's not really that surprising is it...but it's also terrible logic.

Also I don't know where you are coming from in that hammer reasoning, but let me clarify. I'm voting for Texas mostly because there's no reason not to. However if people start bandwagoning I'm going to unlynch so that we can use the full day we have instead of cutting it short. However I still intend to be on the lynch for Texas today bar anything happens to change my vote to someone else.

As for the notion I'm voting for someone who lynched haruno, that's completely inaccurate. Aubisio made one of their rare posts stating that they thought someone on that lynch was scum. Given their...suspicious playstyle I pushed on that point by asking them (and only them) who they thought specifically was scummy. The fact more people answered than just Aubisio is completely on them.


Asek said:
You'd probably pull the same shit tomorrow after pulling your vote and try to frame someone who lynched texas off if he flips town. If you want my full summary of why i dislike your posts this game i can also provide it. Theres been specific moments where I've seen play highly consistent with how id play a scum game in a vanilla.
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This part really makes you seem scummy as that is 1000% baseless. I had my lynch on Texas yesterday and kept with it even when it seemed like it would come down to the 50/50 and simultaneously stated I had town read Haruno based on our earlier interaction. Then the other logic is based on misreadings. Otherwise there's literally 0 reason or evidence that I'd do something like that.

Asek said:
I gave my sort of solution on last page, but since then ive become increasingly more displeased with former hope and aubisio and honestly want one of those 2 gone today more than texas.
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Again, this makes you seem scummier in my eyes. Considering all that Texas has done to seem scummy... for instance, they just claimed they think the Josh kill was a ruse to get Walrein lynched. Yet at the start of the day:
Texas Cloverleaf said:
His flip makes twin or walrein look worse to me, I can't say concretely which but my gut prior to my isos was walrein scum. On the other hand twin looked much worse after my isos and seems to have gone mostly without suspicion. idk.
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They were the first person to suggest lynching Walrein today. While it might be they thought of it after that post, it's possible. But it seems too much like they came up with that ruse and tried to make it work, turns out it didn't and then backed up and claimed they thought was a ruse after all. So the fact you'd want to lynch me over Texas, it reeks of scumminess.
 
Asek said:
Why do you give credit to walrein for playing a complex scum game then throw off it by saying something that would align with a complex scum game makes you less weary of him? I don't think its at all past a scum walrein to kill an obvious target for mafia then pass off by saying 'of course i wouldnt do that obvious thing!'
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Walrein said:
you can wifom about it all you want but killing josh is never something i do as scum in that situation
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:afrostar:

I will indulge your theory for a moment.

I think your analysis of situation A is reasonable. I wouldnt really be terribly suprised if the scum team was texas + 2 moderately clever but lacking smogmafia experience dudes, and if texas flips scum I'm willing to buy into this theory completely. I dont know how it makes twin look clean tho. He has a 100% NOC loss rate:toast:

Situation B is a lot more interesting. I think that opens the game up wide open and could lead to any real combination of scum teams, but once again leans towards a clever group who are new to mafia.

Then theres from my perspective Situation C) Your scum and trying to buddy me to drop my suspicsion as well as providing a solution that I will hopefully follow and ignore you. I aint falling for that sh*t

I agree generally with your 'ok' lynch targets, but I have good vibes from rssp1, dont want him lynched unless you can elaborate on your feeling and i can see scum signs

For now I'm still suspicous of you. Haruno said earlier he thought you were scum as well iirc, so you're on my watchlist.

Former Hope did you even read the part where thats my hypothetical texas town flip scenario? Of course its base is shoddy because the scenario hasnt happend yet lol. I'm covering my bases for tomorrow. Your post basically amounts to one big OMGUS. You have very little confidence in your reads and are trying hard to flip flop between town and scum on everyone, you say I'm looking 'scummy'. Am i your scum or what? Do you want to lynch me? Is your solution Texas + me + aubisio or some sh*t scum team? Because right now your reads lack confidence and a hard stance and thats one of my biggest scum tells.

Y'all can keep ignoring the fact that I'm covering for the texas town flip scenario, but if he flips town we've got a lot more groundwork to do than if he flips scum. If he flips scum the obvious next target is dentricos.


I would like to hear from Hawkie Aubisio OM room before the deadline.
 
twin's winrate is ass but he's been around the block, he has the experience to know the theoretical plays (and i don't think we've ever seen his NOC scumgame, unless you count DBZ where he was 3rd party)

the only reason i asked you in particular is because you're A. active and B. probably my strongest townread

like i said the rssp read is pure gut until i can look over yesterday

i feel like haruno accusing me of being scum isn't really damning - wasn't his main reasoning just "he was asking questions and then he went awol"? I have reason for doing both - the former being game related and the latter being a combination of RL bullshit/mild NOC burnout

i agree that the PoE is huge if texas flips town

tinfoil conspiracy theory: two of the earliest proponents of a walrein lynch - josh and haruno - are dead. perhaps the other big anti-walrein guy - texas - is scum, and killed those two to make his suspicions look more valid? idk just a thought

if i can find the time/motivation i want to ISO texas. i don't know when deadline is though, i may not get the chance to before day ends

former hope's most recent post is ok. i highly doubt he and texas are a scumteam
 
perhaps the other big anti-walrein guy - texas - is scum, and killed those two to make his suspicions look more valid
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clarifying this part because obviously haruno was lynched rather than nightkilled so accusing texas of hypothetically killing him is a bit silly

yet i hear texas was the counterwagon to the haruno lynch?

hmm
 
without having ISOed him i think i'm like 90% confident on texas being scum

i will not be voting until closer to deadline in order to avoid a hammer and potentially give myself time to do said ISO - 100% certainty would be preferable
 
Tbf I'm pretty sure it was a TvT lynch so I stand by my lynch choice... although lynching Texas today litterally just made my lynch on Haruno horrid. I'm going to look for other targets k?

Why does Haruno flip make texas look worse? Why is rssp1 so willing to go with the flow letting both of yesterday's lynches die? Idk rssp1's reads feel towny though.

Can we please give permission to rssp1 to go fetch hawkie and bring him to the game? Despite townreading him I will laugh if he is scum because Rssp1 said hawkie lurked as scum.

I dont understand people townreading om room?

Walrein said:
without having ISOed him i think i'm like 90% confident on texas being scum

i will not be voting until closer to deadline in order to avoid a hammer and potentially give myself time to do said ISO - 100% certainty would be preferable
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Twin already iso'd yesterday, I can link.

Lynch OM Room

I dont understamd the rowny vibe people get from om.

OM room Have you posted general reads yet? If so link the post please, if not please post them...
 
Thetwinmasters said:
Texas ISO
#15 RVS votes pancake
#19 Realizes dentricos is in the game after I vote him (This could be faked to appear as if dentricos+texas aren't together in a scum team or if you believe this to be real it confirms they aren't together)
#33 Votes shubaka for no reasoning I can see
#50 Townleans walrein for having pro town logic
#59 Says so far nothing scummy
#60 Says keeping his vote on shubaka after haruno votes him for same reasoning as haruno cause he thinks shubaka doesn't help town no matter what faction (This is so incredibly scummy and is a trend in his future posts)
#78 Asks me why I dislike him says he is keeping his vote on a rand vote because lack of intel and brings up he is consistent to last noc(Where he was an neutral) without being asked if he is inconsistent (This is just him trying to give himself town points lol)
#80 Unvotes rssp1 after he subs for shubaka
#93 Open to other voting strategies that other people come up with (Seems to want to BW on a vote)
#105 Says labeling him with common scum behavior that he is doing doesn't make sense this is all vanillager and that it makes sense for him to be more patient and observant. Defends himself from me and blazade for #93 says bad habit of pre addressing scum arguments that could be brought upon his behavior. Strong town reads Twin cause of being consistent. Slight townleans walrein for driving discussion but is wary of walrein being scum. Thinks blazade and fh/dentricos are slightly opposite of each other but because blazade used good arguments town reads him and suggests FH/Dentricos are slight scum or null. Says aubisio is 65% scum because of his early posts. Calls Hawkie biggest scum read and just says he doesn't like his post. Says probably a scum in the idlers. Votes beta for only posting 1 post instead of hawkie his "strongest" scum read. (This post is just so fucking awful lmfao keep in mind Hawkie is texas's biggest scum read at this point)
#109-#111 Defends his beta vote from josh saying complete silence is more quiet that anybody normal and says odd that josh pointed that out
#118-#119 Asks pancake haruno rssp1 Aubisio for reads
#123 Asks josh to explain his logic of lynching hawkie or aubisio and that a lynch on them would verify the other
#131 Says hawkie isn't inconsistent about his post on aubisio
#133 Says aubisio always idles
#145 Calls out haruno to reread thread cause haruno said inaccurate stuff
#147 Calls out odd things about haruno's post
#149 Says he refuses to tie himself an hawkie lynch even though its his most strongest scum read and then says cause its only a 65% chance he is scum he wants to pursue another road in a 1 post idler lol (This makes me think hawkie is town if texas is mafia cause he doesn't want to have responsibility on a potential hawkie lynch d1 when other people were pressuring him)
#151-152 Doesn't understand how I come to the conclusion about his beta vote now when I pointed it out 50 posts earlier and attacks my reasoning as being crap
#176 Tells pancake and dentricos to start contributing
#178 No idea #105 was so long but says in fairness he had a lot accusations responding to pancake's point about how long posts make people think they are town
#181 Agrees with pancake about dentricos being scummy (I find this weird he is agreeing to pancake at this point considering he ends up lynching him)
#184 Asks blazade to post more
#188 Says if somebody suddenly stops being defensive that screams scummyness in response to pancake liking FH for being less defensive Check if scumreads FH
#190 Calls my reasoning crazy and said he wouldn't come down hard on a vote for only being 60% scum though he went on beta and says there was doubt about hawkie being scum and there was none for beta. (Shouldn't he have strongest scum read as beta then?)
#192 Says it happened in the past and right now doesn't believe hawkie is scum no reason given. (WTF This was also after hawkie started getting less heat on him.)
#220-221 Says beta lynch makes less sense. Guts read pancake as scum says Twin+Blazade Strong towns. asks why wagon on flyhn
#228 Answers what an ISO is
#232 Says he gave his opinions to dentricos
#243 Asks flyhn for top 3 scum reads
#262 Votes Pancake
#297-298 Asks for people to give him questions to respond to (I dislike this but this isn't a main reasoning for why I think texas is scum)
#317-318 Explains his rssp1 and my vote on pancake to pancake
#327 Slight scumlean on haruno in response to dentricos asking
#337-338 Vote count and asks walrein where he is since he hasn't changed his vote on texas from the RVS stage
#341-#434 Points out blazade unvoted
#378 Agrees with blazade too many people happy to jump on beta's defense dislikes Hawkie's emotional argument. Would considering lynching walrein if everybody collectively agrees to also lynch me blazade and haruno and says if nobody flips terrorist in there then would confirm that terrorists don't exist. (LMFAO This is such an awful argument) Says everything about pancake is scummy without explaining why its scummy and his target against blazade a hail mary. Calls me and Hawkie strong towns. FH Lean scum.
Bunch of vote count related shit that doesn't matter
#421 says he is busy
#453 Asks me Why I think there has to be a scum on the pancake wagon(When I only said its more likely there is a scum on the pancake wagon) cause he town reads rssp1+hawkie
#483 Said he pegged walrein as most likely scum of "power players" and because of josh's logic on walrein+haruno should be likely scum. Says aubisio is scummy because he literally done nothing for 20 pages. Insults me for scumreading him two games in a row. Says he intended to vote for walrein but instead votes for aubisio for #482. (This seems like he is trying to BW using Josh's logic)
#485 Says he doesn't care if aubisio posts more cause aubisio's lack of posts is inconsistent with previous play(Its not) Says even if aubisio isn't scum he isn't helping town which isn't much better (This shows with the shubaka vote imo he really doesn't care about voting scums)
#512 Says haruno is #2 after aubisio votes haruno (Never mentioned that before lol)
#521 Says haruno/walrein/aubisio is strongest scum. Brings up we should vote me haruno and walrein in succession. Asks haruno why he thinks FH is scum. (Kinda defensive of FH) Guesses 2 terrorists and it could be walrein+idler.
#526 Says he wants to vote walrein tomorrow even though he would be the 3rd most scum read. (WTF is the logic in this wouldn't he want aubisio or haruno gone tomorrow?)
#550 Says he wasn't confident in hawkie read lot of room for error compared to beta who had done nothing to seem town. (Again why wouldn't he call beta his strongest scum read then?)
#553 Calls out people for explaining why they dislike him. (Hypocritical) Says he would consider lynching himself to clarify his points (Appeal to emotion this isn't towny imo)
Last thoughts are that texas never explained his reads and they seem very bandwagoning to me. Also extremely weird that he never voted FH imo after he pointed out that suddenly being less defensive would make a person more scummy.
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Walrein
 
Dentricos said:
Tbf I'm pretty sure it was a TvT lynch so I stand by my lynch choice... although lynching Texas today litterally just made my lynch on Haruno horrid. I'm going to look for other targets k?

Why does Haruno flip make texas look worse? Why is rssp1 so willing to go with the flow letting both of yesterday's lynches die? Idk rssp1's reads feel towny though.

Can we please give permission to rssp1 to go fetch hawkie and bring him to the game? Despite townreading him I will laugh if he is scum because Rssp1 said hawkie lurked as scum.

I dont understand people townreading om room?



Twin already iso'd yesterday, I can link.

Lynch OM Room

I dont understamd the rowny vibe people get from om.

OM room Have you posted general reads yet? If so link the post please, if not please post them...
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General reads being reads on every player, correct?

Here are reads so far: rssp1 town | Walrein Town | Texas Town | Aubisio Scum
 
I think that Texas is really scum at this point, his defence is very different than that of those in the neighbourhoods and if you look closely he puts a few spins on things in his ISO's.

lynch texas cloverleaf
 
First: at former what the fuck are you smoking? Just because the thought crossed my mind that walrein was framed doesn't mean it contradicts that that's not what I think happened. This is paranoia at literally every point I'm considering the what if alternatives and the possibility of someone framing walrein is very real considering the pressure on him even if it simultaneously makes him look worse

Second: aubisio, what the fuck? If I flip town (which I will) and you're town why the hell would we lynch you tomorrow for the fourth mislynch, that's basically game over. If you're scum is this a cover?

Third: I think it's bullshit to claim I put spins on things in my isos. I posted things people posted as facts, omitted posts not relevant to the game, and where I speculated it was clearly separate from identification of what was posted.

Fourth: I think after this and neighborhood it's crystal clear that my posting style isn't what you'd expect from a traditional mafia player. Isoing me is inevitably going to make me look scum if you come into it with that preconceived notion as twin did and are looking for classic 'scumtells' that don't reflect the reality of intent when posted. I really don't know how I can convince you that everything I've done has been to try and benefit town and I know that some people are tunnelled so hard there's not much point either. The reality is I'm a terrible liar irl and the irony is that even when I'm town in games like Avalon people still think I'm bad just because I like to talk and speculate a lot. Sidenote to game hosts, I'd love the chance to be maf in a near future NOC and have the chance to learn from more experienced players. This is rambly and irrelevant but it's been on my mind for a good while and probably my last chance to say it so.

Fifth: aubisio you do realize I died n1 in neighborhood right. How on earth can you compare my defenses when I wasn't even a major lynch target in that one compared to now.

Sixth: that aubisio post scares me about the lynch

Seventh: I'm once again working tonight iirc deadline is 7, I'll have the chance to check in around 6 but after 4 I'll be gone.
 
hi
Soz
back btw mobile

Texas Cloverleaf - I don't actually think he's scum? Texas has been a solid contributor from D1 onwards and hasn't been afraid to share even his more "outlandish" theories, while the flip yesterday DOES make him look bad, have any of you considered that Haruno was bw'd by scum to make him look bad??? Who was on haruno yday

Former Hope - omg why is he still alive LYNCH FORMER HOPE ever since D1 he's been weary of confrontation and being put in the spotlight and has at times reacted in really weird ways to reads being presented on him?? Also his filler posts like literally everywhere like remember "Aww rip Blazade :( ..." like actual bye

rssp1 - My 2nd scumread and i think him + Former could very well be the scumteam, his activity seems "forced", half of his posts are reads posts and the other half are promising reads posts, he does use good logic in his reads but rssp1 is a very convincing scum, idk though i think he'd be more active if he was scum but irl busy probably has a hand in it too. Still a strong scumread.

OM Room - idk man he subbed for Flyhn who didnt do very much and so far he just reeks of silly townie to me, although he's being very "nice" towards everyone which is a kinna scumtell for me but not enough to push on.

Walrein - ????? he could be either way tbh, he's been very involved this game with good posts and activity but with how it's went so far you can't help but wonder if scum are leading town

Aubisio - too stupid to read

Dentricos - i read him as town

Asek - he's just came into the game but he's been really good so far, i'll have to wait until there's more posts to analyse
 
I think I figured out what Josh meant when he said "you guys are looking at this game all wrong"

One of rssp1, walrein, and twin are scum. A second might be scum. All three are definitely not scum.

Reason being: they are all almost universally townread.

Here's the rub in the game's mechanics: scum have no motivation to do anything other than act like a perfect town. They don't need to keep each other alive. They don't need to create misdirection. They don't need to lead mislynches. The only thing they need to do to win is to avoid suspicion being on them. Once the game hits a certain number of people remaining as long as any scum is alive they win. Guaranteed at least one of them is the sheep in wolf's clothing, possibly two, while the last scum takes on a more active, dissident voice.

Unvote Lynch rssp1
 
Vote Count 3.1

Texas Cloverleaf (3): thetwinmasters, Former Hope, Aubisio
OM Room (1): Dentricos
Aubisio (1): Asek
Former Hope (1): Hawkie
rssp1 (1): Texas Cloverleaf
Not voting (3): Walrein, rssp1, OM Room

10 alive, 6 is maj
 
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