I think you totally misread what he said
I'll look at it again, alongside a few others who caught my attention - I noticed a string of Josh and Fort Colorcastle posts, and Empoof caught my eye when I was doing a cursory check to make sure it wasn't purely a bias.
FORT COLORCASTLE:
9 posts when I started writing this, 3 of them votes re: living winners.
The 4th post suggests shooting
scumhunters last, and is
pro-Haruno's hunting
The 5th briefly argues against Hitmonleet's sorta wall of text which was anti-Haruno and anti-Former Hope. Means Fort Colorcastle is established as
pro-Haruno, and slightly
pro-Former Hope. However, the shortness of his post, and fact that I found Hitmonleet's reasoning there a bit poor (only 1 of that long list is highly unlikely), I'm not gonna say it's full buddying yet.
Post 6 continues this, a brief elaboration on numbers.
The next 3 are just a bit of theory re: what sort of person to shoot
Verdict: has not yet come to conclusions, though the cycle is still young. Little contribution other than as anti-Hitmonleet.
Slightly scum, and if he is, then one of Haruno and Former Hope probably are, too. If either of those two are flipped in any way, then Fort Colorcastle is slightly more in their direction.
BLAZADE:
Also 9 posts. A couple that aren't important (living winners, confirming)
The third post is actually even WORSE than I thought when I first read it. First calls for IF there's policy lynching, THEN going after "idlers like Flyhn." Then, and I missed this the previous time, argues that we shouldn't telegraph our potential lynch thoughts too much. Okay, I can see a tiny point there, since it prevents us from having to WIFOM "why did they pick this person" like we have already with Texas, but isn't that information better for our gunman to make judgments based on?
The fourth is that go hero post. More on that below; fifth post justifies it as a misread, implying he thought the hero scenario was just a probable case.
The sixth is
pro-Empoof, backing up
Josh. As of writing this, I have not yet gotten to either of them on my list yet.
Post 7: suggests shooting someone to validate their reads, EXCEPT as an idler. I can see now why Texas feels I misread what Blazade said, and I suppose I did. That does not change the fact that this post feels off, compared to his third post. Any policy shooting on idlers I can see to get rid of the (I hope this is the right word) chaff would make this more efficient later, and remove scapegoats, but it would also give the mafia more time to plan and analyze everything. And the idlers would likely forget to shoot anyone in the first place, which would cause another mafia-selected gunbearer and bring us back to square one, only smaller.
Post 8, his reply to my accusation! Names his reasoning in fourth post as a false assumption, or a worst-case scenario, says he's "not defeatist except in the D1 NOC sense." He also says that shooting the actives to validate their reads (which he previously said was good logic) can be delayed for those making good reads and connections, but he
also says he reinforced the point by saying that. I don't see how what he said before could have implied that delay.
9th: can't objectively read Asek and Yeti.
Verdict: Doesn't feel right at all. Could just not click with my thought process, and the contradictions could be well within standard human error. But it feels like a forming pattern to me, so
Scummy, and if he's scum then we should take a hard look at Asek, Empoof, and Yeti (and a few extra glances at Josh). I also feel his early posts mean there's no chance that he and Flyhn are both mafia, so if one is, then other is perfectly clean.
JOSH:
(Oh, no. 29 posts already. This'll be a pain...)
1-5, 9: early game junk pings and stuff re: living winners.
6: Argues against my post for policy lynching
Haruno. Against policy lynching in general, even. Reads like an early attempt to steer the conversation to something useful (which is what my suggestion was meant to provoke anyway)
7: more
pro-Haruno
8: Says Texas should ask, but never be asked. Seems reasonable.
10: Volunteers to be shot mid-game so he can scumhunt that way. Could be bluffing as mafia, could be honest town. Considering Deathnote NOC, I agree he should be shot, maybe around then even.
11: asks Blazade for an explanation on something re policy lynching. It's that shouldn't put our lynch ideas out too much post.
12: Joins in with how Fort Colorcastle called out Hitmonleet's bad list with the 'at least one is mafia' idea. I'm just gonna say
he and Fort Colorcastle are linked against Hitmonleet now.
13: I had to spend a bit of reading the prior posts to get this. Is against calling Blazade clear on incompetence-over-malice reasoning. I'd be against him here, except see above re: Blazade's pattern.
14:
Null on Fort, says Hitmonleet is scum
It's about this point I realized I missed a post somewhere, either ahead or behind. I shoulda done this five posts at a time, instead of opening all tabs at once. As such, my numbering before MAY BE OFF
Slightly pro-Haruno, then intensifies that view against Asek's question
Then argues
a case against Empoof's read on MoodyCloud. Curiously, I don't see a response there.
Argues for a potential later shooting of Haruno, for similar reasons to why I agree with his prior post on volunteering to be shot.
Answers Asek's question, suggesting that, in a vacuum, Twin would be a candidate to shoot.
Snarks about Empoof-Former Hope WIFOM. More anti-WIFOM, then a segment of posts that's ??? for everyone involved. In this, he reads fh and winter as scum, me and hitmonleet as town (remarking his change in position re hitmonleet)
Verdict: Before his post changing views on hitmonleet, I was having trouble reading him. However, he's not giving much reasoning behind his reads, and was willing to change. This matches his play in Deathnote, so I'm going to say he's
TOWN. If the gun falls into the hands of someone not so great at scum hunting, maybe he or Haruno as he suggested are good targets to get it back into good management.
Between him and Hitmonleet, there is AT MOST one scum. Yes, odds are in my favor, but I'm quite sure that at least one is village based on this (most likely Josh if not both, but if he's NOT town, then his changing stance on Hitmonleet wouldn't make sense if Hitmonleet is also mafia). I'd also like to say that there's a non-negligible link between him and both Haruno and Fort Colorcastle. If I'm wrong and he's mafia, then one of them is, too. If one of them is mafia, then he's instead only slightly townie. More on Empoof below.
EMPOOF:
33 posts. Already. Ow.
Spends some early posts saying Josh/Yeti scum and MoodyCloud/Blazade town. Likes MoodyCloud against Josh. Is also against shooting Haruno, then asks Flyhn why he thinks we shouldn't. Then adds UncleSam and Hitmonleet to his townreads. Sorta pro-winter-delta?
Then ??? I don't know for sure, but taken as closely to literally as I can, looks like he admits to Blazade that he was just trying to pressure Josh? Or changed his mind.
Argues for the "popcorn" post being townie, due to "air of not giving a hoot" - I strongly disagree here. That would be more mafia attempt to look like they're there when they really aren't doing much.
Some more joke posts.
Well, those posts were usually short
Verdict:
Leaning slightly scummy, but I could easily see him as postcount++ town with reasonable discussion if not ideas. Would be a good target in a turn or two to validate his reads per other users.