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NOC Why is there a gun in my popcorn? GAME OVER SCUM WIN
- Thread starter Panic Station
- Start date
- Status
Seventh Shot - End
Trapped in the dark, surrounded by unknown enemies...
The pressure is too much.
"Get me out of here!" Jalmont shouts as he fires blindly.
The only response he hears is a strangled scream that quickly dies out.
Eighth Shot
Jalmont shot Pancake, who was a Mafia Goon. No change in Gunbearer. Jalmont, you already know the time limit.
Deadline for Eighth Shot is April 10th noon UTC-6.
Trapped in the dark, surrounded by unknown enemies...
The pressure is too much.
"Get me out of here!" Jalmont shouts as he fires blindly.
The only response he hears is a strangled scream that quickly dies out.
Eighth Shot
Jalmont shot Pancake, who was a Mafia Goon. No change in Gunbearer. Jalmont, you already know the time limit.
Deadline for Eighth Shot is April 10th noon UTC-6.
Hitmonleet despite now two scum pushing for me (including one who's buddyd you most of the game), do you still think I'm scum?
Hitmonleet
Thetwinmasters
UncleSam
MoodyCloud
Asek
King_
Josh
Yeti
Flyhn
Former Hope
Aura Guardian
Martin Da Letter El Walrein
5/12 out of this is scum? lol. Honestly there are a ton of believable scumteams and I'm wary of consensus opinion. I've said it before that the only way mafia wins is by convincing people to believe in someone they shouldn't and now public opinion's only getting more corrupted.
The reason I asked C2 who people believe in is that Monty Hall kind of works in reverse here in a sense. As we get closer and closer to a disastrous endgame, a random person has a lower likelihood to be town, but at 12/18 those are the best odds you can get in a game like this and in my opinion it'll be informative of some of the more robust post flip relationships you can draw. Unfortunately most of the game kind of just shipped Flyhn but Josh shipped Hitmonleet.
Going back and reading pre winter delta consensus I am inclined to believe that the majority narrative that w-d was getting at was that Sam Scum -> Yeti Scum but I'm inclined to believe the other implication now, so I'm pretty convinced Yeti is town in any scenario.
Biggest gut towns I had at the beginning were Sam and DLE and that really hasn't changed tbh. No one else has given me a large amount of confidence to not shoot them so far but twin has picked up his activity and content game.
Thetwinmasters
UncleSam
MoodyCloud
Asek
King_
Josh
Yeti
Flyhn
Former Hope
Aura Guardian
Martin Da Letter El Walrein
5/12 out of this is scum? lol. Honestly there are a ton of believable scumteams and I'm wary of consensus opinion. I've said it before that the only way mafia wins is by convincing people to believe in someone they shouldn't and now public opinion's only getting more corrupted.
The reason I asked C2 who people believe in is that Monty Hall kind of works in reverse here in a sense. As we get closer and closer to a disastrous endgame, a random person has a lower likelihood to be town, but at 12/18 those are the best odds you can get in a game like this and in my opinion it'll be informative of some of the more robust post flip relationships you can draw. Unfortunately most of the game kind of just shipped Flyhn but Josh shipped Hitmonleet.
Going back and reading pre winter delta consensus I am inclined to believe that the majority narrative that w-d was getting at was that Sam Scum -> Yeti Scum but I'm inclined to believe the other implication now, so I'm pretty convinced Yeti is town in any scenario.
Biggest gut towns I had at the beginning were Sam and DLE and that really hasn't changed tbh. No one else has given me a large amount of confidence to not shoot them so far but twin has picked up his activity and content game.
tfw someone pulls the player list before you finish OP edits
I was writing that post for a while lol, I saw the flip between my first post and the second.
Quickly glancing at Josh's ISO he changes his tune on moody pretty quickly and definitively. Tough to say whether he's abandoning a bus or switching from trying to lynch to trying to capitalize off a town flip on a sure shot. Thoughts?
Quickly glancing at Josh's ISO he changes his tune on moody pretty quickly and definitively. Tough to say whether he's abandoning a bus or switching from trying to lynch to trying to capitalize off a town flip on a sure shot. Thoughts?
I'm like 60-40 inclined to think it's the latter but my shots in order are probably AG - Asek - Fomer Hope. I wouldn't be opposed to shooting Hitmonleet either but I'm also about 75-25 inclined to think that was buddying. All the same Hitmonleet never lives to the end now in my mind so it's not a matter of IF, but when we decide to flip him.
Ayyy my reads are starting to be on point again
But now i guess i have no choice but to do that Josh ISO... i was dreading this.. it's a lot of posts @_@
But now i guess i have no choice but to do that Josh ISO... i was dreading this.. it's a lot of posts @_@
I'll take the first 4 pages. You take the second 4 and Pancake.
Already done a fair amount of the first few posts... ^^;
Okay, I'll take the last 4 pages and Pancake
Specifically up to post #144 is where i've made it so far
He posted a lot earlygame but it's a bunch of shorter posts so it isn't really as bad as i thought
He posted a lot earlygame but it's a bunch of shorter posts so it isn't really as bad as i thought
74-78: Argues with former hope, Townreads hitmonleet
79-83: Misunderstands FH's question re: last game where he was mafia. More arguing with FH
84-88: more arguing, then anti-Yeti. Wants reads lists
89-93: Wants Haruno to shoot: Yeti, Former Hope, Twin; in that order. Also reads:
----Town: Me, Hitmonleet, Flyhn, Empoof; Scum: as above but also Moody. Nulls everyone else
94-98: Mostly junk posts. A little theory, trying to push the 1 locktown option.
99-103: Comments on W-D's readslist, suggests that mafia would hard bus. Suggests Hitmonleet for one townie, Mixed on Flyhn?
104-108: asks why we're shooting active; junk posts. More anti-Yeti.
109-113: junk, anti-Asek and anti-Twin; Anti-me. Explains anti-FH
114-118: Anti-Yeti still. Junk posts, asks Flyhn to ISO him. Starts defending W-D
119-123: Talks with FH and Twin re: who should be shot. Makes a FH-Yeti link trying to get one shot for the other.
124-128: Slightly less anti-twin; irrelevant stuff; Tries to break off argument with FH and Twin; still anti-FH
129-133: Some junk; defends Moody.
134-138: Some junk, still defends Moody. Suggests Sam for shooting.
139-143: Anti-FH; less so but still anti-Sam.
144-148: Still pro-Moody. Tries to coach winter-delta in the thread. Instead of a scumchat (lol).
149-153: Lot of filler posts. Asks for sub.
This was the first four pages of results aka the second half of Josh's posting. Already I see strong FH, Twin, Yeti, Moody, Hitmonleet, and Sam links. I think figuring out who he was bussing and who he was buddying and who he was faking either of those one is a giant case of WIFOM, but given the ample evidence, I'd say: maybe two to four people in that list are scum. Just figuring he'd randomize his buddies a bit. 3 for 3 average, given this setup, seems like a fair deal to me. IMO just shoot all 6 of them.
79-83: Misunderstands FH's question re: last game where he was mafia. More arguing with FH
84-88: more arguing, then anti-Yeti. Wants reads lists
89-93: Wants Haruno to shoot: Yeti, Former Hope, Twin; in that order. Also reads:
----Town: Me, Hitmonleet, Flyhn, Empoof; Scum: as above but also Moody. Nulls everyone else
94-98: Mostly junk posts. A little theory, trying to push the 1 locktown option.
99-103: Comments on W-D's readslist, suggests that mafia would hard bus. Suggests Hitmonleet for one townie, Mixed on Flyhn?
104-108: asks why we're shooting active; junk posts. More anti-Yeti.
109-113: junk, anti-Asek and anti-Twin; Anti-me. Explains anti-FH
114-118: Anti-Yeti still. Junk posts, asks Flyhn to ISO him. Starts defending W-D
119-123: Talks with FH and Twin re: who should be shot. Makes a FH-Yeti link trying to get one shot for the other.
124-128: Slightly less anti-twin; irrelevant stuff; Tries to break off argument with FH and Twin; still anti-FH
129-133: Some junk; defends Moody.
134-138: Some junk, still defends Moody. Suggests Sam for shooting.
139-143: Anti-FH; less so but still anti-Sam.
144-148: Still pro-Moody. Tries to coach winter-delta in the thread. Instead of a scumchat (lol).
149-153: Lot of filler posts. Asks for sub.
This was the first four pages of results aka the second half of Josh's posting. Already I see strong FH, Twin, Yeti, Moody, Hitmonleet, and Sam links. I think figuring out who he was bussing and who he was buddying and who he was faking either of those one is a giant case of WIFOM, but given the ample evidence, I'd say: maybe two to four people in that list are scum. Just figuring he'd randomize his buddies a bit. 3 for 3 average, given this setup, seems like a fair deal to me. IMO just shoot all 6 of them.
Another thing, why is everyone else numbering posts in ISOs only going by the subject rather than by actual post number like i am? It's more confusing that way @_@
Josh postmortem-scum ISO PART 1 (thanks for volunteering Part 2 AG, but if it isn't done by tonight i'm doing the rest myself)
Josh
Game Start
#20 - lol shade smells
#25 - lol tag somone after they say something about pings
#28 - question for host
#37 - rulevote
#41 - rule is stupid
#42 - Policy is stupid and shouldn't happen, not shooting Haruno
#46 - Supports Haruno, saying his reads are usually good as town
#48 - Ask questions
#53 - More about Haruno
#55 - Responds to twin scumreading Fort for gamerule vote
#60 - Discussion on how gunshots should be dealt with regarding scumhunters vs idlers, up to shooter
#64 - Calls out Blazade's misread of the rules
#68 - FoS Hitmonleet for his #67
#82 - Blazade not derpclear
#87 - Fort is null, leet is scum
#91 - More talk about Haruno
#93 - Haruno isn't detrimental lol
#108 - Responds to Empoof about... yup, Haurno
#109 - How is Moody town?
#113 - Haruno stuff still, more explanation on why not to shoot him early
#119 - Compares twin to Haruno, says he'd shoot twin if gunned because hard to read
#132 - ahhh wifom
#135 - If scum wanted Haruno shot, why not give it to twin/asek first? Why WOULD they want Haruno shot first? Calls out Former for wifoming
#137 - why's "popcorn" town lolwut
#144 - u wat
#171 - Every townie needs to be shot for a scum win, we can't just shoot town willy-nilly
#172 - like..?
#173 - leet and Aura town. Former and winter scum
#175 - weak speaks?
#180 - how to respond to a townread on "popcorn" lol
#190 - gutread on one word = no
#191 - D1 isn't useless
#289 - sick
#305 - reaction to sub
#306 - wants empoof's ms name
#307 - Response to twin wanting Empoof shot
#308 - Is this ai Sam behavior? idk
#309 - Don't shoot Blazade D1, twin's meta is useless in this setup
#310 - Shubaka always idles lol
#311 - Empoof, why is twin town?
#312 - dbw posted in an NOC?! :o
#313 - Haruno, NO THAT'S WRONG!
#315 - Would shoot Former right now with gun
#319 - Haruno, bullshit
#320 - stop bitching about D1
#324 - A short Former ISO, points out active lurking
#328 - Former isn't contributing
#330 - Stop winfoming and being NAI Former
#335 - was that about me?
#365 - Yeti has weird af logic
#368 - Doesn't like Haruno's logic, but still stands by it's normal Haruno play
#370 - Haruno, what.
#371 - Yeti's argument is invalid
#380 - I could easily do the same thing, it's all weighted differently
#383 - More responses to Haruno
#400 - Tunneling isn't scummy. Comments on the idlers, defending shubaka and winter as par for the course, dbw is contributing more than ever, Moody's perception by others is weird
#402 - leet is townreading Moody
shubaka is shot
Haruno gets gun
#431 - Haruno null
#432 - twilight tho
#443 - Shooting Sam/Yeti for reads on the other isn't worth, Yeti shot is still fine though
#445 - Still discuss stuff pls
#448 - Haruno might listen to some of us
#451 - Yeti and Jalmont too high on Empoof's list, I shouldn't be lock town, but am still a townread
#453 - Still defends shubaka's idling
#457 - But I wasn't in OCNOC
#459 - I am a strong townread, but making me lock is dumb
#461 - Townread Aura too
#471 - Anyone townread Blazade/twin?
#474 - twin scum, Blazade null
#475 - last scum game, Blazade?
#479 - Why is winter idling scum and not just idling?
#483 - highest confidence how?
Okay that's the first 4 search pages worth of posts. Gonna look over both halves to see if i can find anything, and later figure out how any possible connections. I'll also put together the same kind of thing i did for winter last cycle, since although Josh's interactions do still have value, i find the reactions others have TO a confirmed scum are even better to go off of, as scum can easily buddy
Josh postmortem-scum ISO PART 1 (thanks for volunteering Part 2 AG, but if it isn't done by tonight i'm doing the rest myself)
Josh
Game Start
#20 - lol shade smells
#25 - lol tag somone after they say something about pings
#28 - question for host
#37 - rulevote
#41 - rule is stupid
#42 - Policy is stupid and shouldn't happen, not shooting Haruno
#46 - Supports Haruno, saying his reads are usually good as town
#48 - Ask questions
#53 - More about Haruno
#55 - Responds to twin scumreading Fort for gamerule vote
#60 - Discussion on how gunshots should be dealt with regarding scumhunters vs idlers, up to shooter
#64 - Calls out Blazade's misread of the rules
#68 - FoS Hitmonleet for his #67
#82 - Blazade not derpclear
#87 - Fort is null, leet is scum
#91 - More talk about Haruno
#93 - Haruno isn't detrimental lol
#108 - Responds to Empoof about... yup, Haurno
#109 - How is Moody town?
#113 - Haruno stuff still, more explanation on why not to shoot him early
#119 - Compares twin to Haruno, says he'd shoot twin if gunned because hard to read
#132 - ahhh wifom
#135 - If scum wanted Haruno shot, why not give it to twin/asek first? Why WOULD they want Haruno shot first? Calls out Former for wifoming
#137 - why's "popcorn" town lolwut
#144 - u wat
#171 - Every townie needs to be shot for a scum win, we can't just shoot town willy-nilly
#172 - like..?
#173 - leet and Aura town. Former and winter scum
#175 - weak speaks?
#180 - how to respond to a townread on "popcorn" lol
#190 - gutread on one word = no
#191 - D1 isn't useless
#289 - sick
#305 - reaction to sub
#306 - wants empoof's ms name
#307 - Response to twin wanting Empoof shot
#308 - Is this ai Sam behavior? idk
#309 - Don't shoot Blazade D1, twin's meta is useless in this setup
#310 - Shubaka always idles lol
#311 - Empoof, why is twin town?
#312 - dbw posted in an NOC?! :o
#313 - Haruno, NO THAT'S WRONG!
#315 - Would shoot Former right now with gun
#319 - Haruno, bullshit
#320 - stop bitching about D1
#324 - A short Former ISO, points out active lurking
#328 - Former isn't contributing
#330 - Stop winfoming and being NAI Former
#335 - was that about me?
#365 - Yeti has weird af logic
#368 - Doesn't like Haruno's logic, but still stands by it's normal Haruno play
#370 - Haruno, what.
#371 - Yeti's argument is invalid
#380 - I could easily do the same thing, it's all weighted differently
#383 - More responses to Haruno
#400 - Tunneling isn't scummy. Comments on the idlers, defending shubaka and winter as par for the course, dbw is contributing more than ever, Moody's perception by others is weird
#402 - leet is townreading Moody
shubaka is shot
Haruno gets gun
#431 - Haruno null
#432 - twilight tho
#443 - Shooting Sam/Yeti for reads on the other isn't worth, Yeti shot is still fine though
#445 - Still discuss stuff pls
#448 - Haruno might listen to some of us
#451 - Yeti and Jalmont too high on Empoof's list, I shouldn't be lock town, but am still a townread
#453 - Still defends shubaka's idling
#457 - But I wasn't in OCNOC
#459 - I am a strong townread, but making me lock is dumb
#461 - Townread Aura too
#471 - Anyone townread Blazade/twin?
#474 - twin scum, Blazade null
#475 - last scum game, Blazade?
#479 - Why is winter idling scum and not just idling?
#483 - highest confidence how?
Okay that's the first 4 search pages worth of posts. Gonna look over both halves to see if i can find anything, and later figure out how any possible connections. I'll also put together the same kind of thing i did for winter last cycle, since although Josh's interactions do still have value, i find the reactions others have TO a confirmed scum are even better to go off of, as scum can easily buddy
First based off of Josh's interactions, i still have bad feelings about Moody. Former looks better to me because the push against them from Josh looks a bit harsh to be scum V scum in my eyes, and it looks like a town v scum in hindsight. Irrelevant now really, but he hard buddied Haruno early on as well.
Assuming Jalmont's doing the vote thing again, i'd yet again like to put Moody forward for now.
Assuming Jalmont's doing the vote thing again, i'd yet again like to put Moody forward for now.
Mostly because that's a handy way for us to keep track of what number we're on within the search results.
Also i still believe Yeti is town, and this kinda cements it. All three dead scum have pushed on her, and i highly doubt half of a scumteam would be trying to bus someone who hasn't even slipped in some way. It reads to me more like scum's scared of her
Hmm, looking at it from that angle, and all that... okay, I guess I was wrong about Yeti.
Duh they are
Pancake flip mafia is a bit surprising to me but really just decreases the odds the other people in that grouping for shot priority are mafia
From the AG iso it seems Josh had added moody to his scum reads then began defending him which was probably shifted when I began pushing moody (and other idle cucks) as good shots.
I'll review more but I don't think anything makes me change my mind moody ag Sam are all solid shots
Pancake flip mafia is a bit surprising to me but really just decreases the odds the other people in that grouping for shot priority are mafia
From the AG iso it seems Josh had added moody to his scum reads then began defending him which was probably shifted when I began pushing moody (and other idle cucks) as good shots.
I'll review more but I don't think anything makes me change my mind moody ag Sam are all solid shots
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