makes sense. he's learning, nice guy, always appears really scummy.
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NOC Matrix 12 NOC - Game Over, Mafia Wins
- Thread starter Thetwinmasters
- Start date
- Status
Working on Papercake slot rn. Were null when run started due to sr weakening over time. Hawkie's Town. Letter broke Townie for me before, haven't reread the slot yet. Not sure about Ironic or Blaz.
EoD jalmont does this thing where he dissuades away from every wagon.
he said earlier that king/ullar was a subpar duo to lynch between and should be avoided d1.
p23 he diverts away from haruno as well with:
"I would rather look at the people that haven't voted/updated their vote."
im not sure if he actually does this in the hour left before EoD1, reading on to see. this may be relevant to who his scumbuddies are.
however if i wasnt in the ullar slot, i would conclude ullar is town from the fact jalmont tries to push away from all three of king/haruno/ullar
he is absolutely going for towncred when any one of these three likely mislynches goes off. also considering king and ullar were paired together in his attempt to dissuade and it's haruno who is separate, it's not like he grouped the two town and THEN clumped in his teammate.
sux 2 b jalmont he got vigged before he could try and reap the towncred payoff for balking at haruno's mislynch (and then whichever of king or ullar got mislynched d2)
he said earlier that king/ullar was a subpar duo to lynch between and should be avoided d1.
p23 he diverts away from haruno as well with:
"I would rather look at the people that haven't voted/updated their vote."
im not sure if he actually does this in the hour left before EoD1, reading on to see. this may be relevant to who his scumbuddies are.
however if i wasnt in the ullar slot, i would conclude ullar is town from the fact jalmont tries to push away from all three of king/haruno/ullar
he is absolutely going for towncred when any one of these three likely mislynches goes off. also considering king and ullar were paired together in his attempt to dissuade and it's haruno who is separate, it's not like he grouped the two town and THEN clumped in his teammate.
sux 2 b jalmont he got vigged before he could try and reap the towncred payoff for balking at haruno's mislynch (and then whichever of king or ullar got mislynched d2)
I don't have a gamesolve. I don't have confidence in my reads, so I've been abstaining from lynching a lot lately.
I suppose, if I HAD to try and gamesolve atm, I'd be saying Josh/Yeti + Texas + Papercake, I suppose. I'm not sure of any of these rn (except Yeti/Josh), so it's more my general leanings rn.
uhhh jalmont was pivotal in the haruno wagon being a thing, his vote was probably the shift from walrein maing a case to that being a full on wagon
dont get what you mean by 'pushing away from' haruno here
Is it too much ego to think it odd someone else is using your phrasing?
Votecount
Hitmonleet (3): Blazade, Pancake, Ironic Double
Yeti (2): Hitmonleet, Josh
Blazade (1): Moodycloud
Ironic Double (1): Asek
Josh (1): Texas Cloverleaf
Not Voting (5): Hawkie, KnightsofCydonia, Yeti, Fort Colorcastle, Empoof
Hitmonleet (3): Blazade, Pancake, Ironic Double
Yeti (2): Hitmonleet, Josh
Blazade (1): Moodycloud
Ironic Double (1): Asek
Josh (1): Texas Cloverleaf
Not Voting (5): Hawkie, KnightsofCydonia, Yeti, Fort Colorcastle, Empoof
here's prolly the hardest defense by asek onto leet.
texas raises the chance to lynch leet before deadline and asek is the one who shuts it down.
i can definitely see a situation in which asek pushes not-leet but other easy targets EoD1 then shuffles away from leet, as mafia.
that said i can also see town asek not having a strong read on leet either way because i dont either after D1 and leet is going to active lurk through EoD1.
i would never lynch asek today based off this but i think it is something to consider.
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i like texas and asek both being active at EoD1. texas in particular is trying to get people to cast meaningful votes though if he's mafia he knows any one of haruno, ullar, king or even leet are great lynches for his team.
texas's post makes me think if 1 of texas or leet is mafia, the other isn't. not sure why he'd even suggest a wagon on his teammate when he had some solid mislynch wagons lined up (that could be easily pinned to others)
i guess i misread the second jalmont post
he was kind of vague what he was actually replying to so i interpreted
OK I do see why, I am just not convinced that it's the most fruitful endeavor. I would rather look at the people that haven't voted/updated their vote.
as being about haruno; "it" seems to actually be the two wagons and the people on them.
i thought he was saying even though he scumread haruno he would rather go on walrein and would rather pressure people who dont move their votes. instead of pressuring haruno.
he was kind of vague what he was actually replying to so i interpreted
OK I do see why, I am just not convinced that it's the most fruitful endeavor. I would rather look at the people that haven't voted/updated their vote.
as being about haruno; "it" seems to actually be the two wagons and the people on them.
i thought he was saying even though he scumread haruno he would rather go on walrein and would rather pressure people who dont move their votes. instead of pressuring haruno.
couple interesting dle interactions on p25
one is walrein says he hopes they both survive the night so they can do work. i assume walrein hard townreads dle from this post. POSSIBLE mafia!dle gets concerned walrein will suss out he's scum and also expect him to do a lot of work the next day thus kills him. this is p weak wifom tho, just i noticed it.
dle votes haruno and is kind of the decisive factor in haruno being lynched. he also hard defends ullar saying he iso'd him and can't understand the votes.
haruno being a mislynch would make dle/ullar scum together not a bad notion at all BUT i dont think they make sense with jalmont as the other one.
are there 3 mafia or 4? walrein says "last one" after listing 2 ppl but reading the setup there should be 2 goons and the 1 strongman left alive after roleblocker died?
one is walrein says he hopes they both survive the night so they can do work. i assume walrein hard townreads dle from this post. POSSIBLE mafia!dle gets concerned walrein will suss out he's scum and also expect him to do a lot of work the next day thus kills him. this is p weak wifom tho, just i noticed it.
dle votes haruno and is kind of the decisive factor in haruno being lynched. he also hard defends ullar saying he iso'd him and can't understand the votes.
haruno being a mislynch would make dle/ullar scum together not a bad notion at all BUT i dont think they make sense with jalmont as the other one.
are there 3 mafia or 4? walrein says "last one" after listing 2 ppl but reading the setup there should be 2 goons and the 1 strongman left alive after roleblocker died?
i dont rly like this blazade post.
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fh immediately starts setup spec which i feel is NAI for him. grr. why isnt it.
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jalmont never does get around to pressuring people who parked their votes or didnt vote at all. wonder what that might say about where his teammates are.
this makes me think josh is more likely town bc why would mafia point out haruno is lynchbait then vote another lynchbait in the same post
any way u look at it this post is FailFish logic
I heavily disagree with this
moody speculates the haruno ullar wagons could be tvt p27
in order of earliest post
voters for haruno
1. walrein
2. jalmont
3. knights
4. king
5. dle
6. ullar (preservation)
7. texas
voters for ullar
1. hawkie
2. blazade
(king switches to haruno here)
3. asek
(texas votes ullar here)
4. moodycloud
5. haruno (preservation)
(texas switches to haruno here)
neither:
paperblade (king)
former hope (no vote)
hitmonleet (josh)
josh (hitmonleet)
shubaka (asek)
4 mafia, 1 accounted for voting haruno.
considering both wagons were tvt and king was a third, the mafia have no reason to all-in on any one person.
i find it more likely their votes are better distributed between wagons
i find texas switching as EoD approached to ensure Some lynch went off more probably town; it hinders both teams to not have a lynch but i think his movement is more likely town.
i think knights is likely town. and i know ullar who dle saved is town so i find it PRETTY unlikely scum dle goes out of his way to vote haruno AND THEN state town ullar shouldn't be getting votes.
so im going to assume the haruno wagon only had jalmont. could be wrong.
former hope ending with no vote is suspicious. i would say it's likely there's one of the mafia who casually cbf to be on either wagon (and jalmont was referring to in trying to gain towncred).
hitmonleet and josh vote each other. good choices there.
shubaka stays on asek and like leet doesnt appear to do anything at EoD. i guess at least they voted their scumreads even if leet lurked deadline?
paperblade on king... :thinking:
ullar voters:
blazade is probably the most obvious one to ping as mafia.
moody is the most opportunistic on that wagon in that he only votes it once 5 other people are on it. haruno votes it as well, tying the lynch and causing texas to switch to haruno to ensure no tie.
i think hawkie did omgus tunnel ullar on d1. but im not sure id call that AI.
jalmont/fh-id/blazade and 1 more between the others i'll leave black below
voters for haruno
1. walrein
2. jalmont
3. knights
4. king
5. dle
6. ullar (preservation)
7. texas
voters for ullar
1. hawkie
2. blazade
(king switches to haruno here)
3. asek
(texas votes ullar here)
4. moodycloud
5. haruno (preservation)
(texas switches to haruno here)
neither:
paperblade (king)
former hope (no vote)
hitmonleet (josh)
josh (hitmonleet)
shubaka (asek)
again i have a tr on the pblade slot but im not sure its necessarily warranted.
THOUGHTS on this possible scumteam and likely last member.
in order of earliest post
voters for haruno
1. walrein
2. jalmont
3. knights
4. king
5. dle
6. ullar (preservation)
7. texas
voters for ullar
1. hawkie
2. blazade
(king switches to haruno here)
3. asek
(texas votes ullar here)
4. moodycloud
5. haruno (preservation)
(texas switches to haruno here)
neither:
paperblade (king)
former hope (no vote)
hitmonleet (josh)
josh (hitmonleet)
shubaka (asek)
4 mafia, 1 accounted for voting haruno.
considering both wagons were tvt and king was a third, the mafia have no reason to all-in on any one person.
i find it more likely their votes are better distributed between wagons
i find texas switching as EoD approached to ensure Some lynch went off more probably town; it hinders both teams to not have a lynch but i think his movement is more likely town.
i think knights is likely town. and i know ullar who dle saved is town so i find it PRETTY unlikely scum dle goes out of his way to vote haruno AND THEN state town ullar shouldn't be getting votes.
so im going to assume the haruno wagon only had jalmont. could be wrong.
former hope ending with no vote is suspicious. i would say it's likely there's one of the mafia who casually cbf to be on either wagon (and jalmont was referring to in trying to gain towncred).
hitmonleet and josh vote each other. good choices there.
shubaka stays on asek and like leet doesnt appear to do anything at EoD. i guess at least they voted their scumreads even if leet lurked deadline?
paperblade on king... :thinking:
ullar voters:
blazade is probably the most obvious one to ping as mafia.
moody is the most opportunistic on that wagon in that he only votes it once 5 other people are on it. haruno votes it as well, tying the lynch and causing texas to switch to haruno to ensure no tie.
i think hawkie did omgus tunnel ullar on d1. but im not sure id call that AI.
jalmont/fh-id/blazade and 1 more between the others i'll leave black below
voters for haruno
1. walrein
2. jalmont
3. knights
4. king
5. dle
6. ullar (preservation)
7. texas
voters for ullar
1. hawkie
2. blazade
(king switches to haruno here)
3. asek
(texas votes ullar here)
4. moodycloud
5. haruno (preservation)
(texas switches to haruno here)
neither:
paperblade (king)
former hope (no vote)
hitmonleet (josh)
josh (hitmonleet)
shubaka (asek)
again i have a tr on the pblade slot but im not sure its necessarily warranted.
THOUGHTS on this possible scumteam and likely last member.
do you disagree walrein's post implies he townread dle, scum!dle would kill walrein off that post, or both?
i think its a super weak argument but i Observed it
Walrein town read is yes
scum!dle wouldn't kill walrein off that post, he'd consider it a good pocket to move forward as scum.
do you think knights is still possible/probable scum without king as a scumpartner? why?
sry if u said and i forgot jumping between current pages and SoD2
dont think hawkie does this to teammate!fh either
gonna agree with poof that hawkie/jalmont is an off team and gonna posit hawkie/fh is an off team
that in consideration with my above post positing jalmont/fh as a likely team will make me say hawkie is a townread and pretty unlikely last member of the mafia
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