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NOC Animal Mafia ~Game Over~
- Thread starter Scarlet Firefly
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You... completely misread my post, didn't you? I was literally just saying that you should still be under suspicion, in case it was really a scum play (after all, I did the same and it was what resulted in a scum win). Your odd defensiveness bugs me, but I'll get to that in my reads post tmrw
I've read a pretty good amount of the thread now, but I was just popping in real quick to see what's new. Full reads list will come tomorrow afternoon.
Holding you to this
You're who I'm currently most confident is scum but from your pov vote for knights
I'm 95% sure you're opposing alignments
I mean, I'm 95% sure it's between Haruno and KOC one of them is scum.
But unlike you right now, I'm going to provide evidence: A kill was stopped the night before the last. No one so far has claimed any roles that can stop a kill besides Haruno who has his wacky omniguard/BG thing. XX was redirected that night so it's confirmed that it was one of the other scum who did it. Whydon, who flipped town reveals that KOC and Haruno both visited you. This indicates high probability again that there was a kill attempted and I guess between the two, KOC is the most likely based off of Haruno being the only one to claim the ability to block kills in any form.
But unlike you right now, I'm going to provide evidence: A kill was stopped the night before the last. No one so far has claimed any roles that can stop a kill besides Haruno who has his wacky omniguard/BG thing. XX was redirected that night so it's confirmed that it was one of the other scum who did it. Whydon, who flipped town reveals that KOC and Haruno both visited you. This indicates high probability again that there was a kill attempted and I guess between the two, KOC is the most likely based off of Haruno being the only one to claim the ability to block kills in any form.
That's the other 15%
>Former is 85% the Lynch
Cant bring myself to see how you are reading the situation as town!aubisio would like clarification on the TR here. Gonna analyze the merit of xnad+haruno+hitmonleet+KOC later to see if i can follow you on your logic. Also as per your gamesolve wouldnt far and away the logical lynch today be hitmonleet?
I think Epik's RB theory explains how my neighborize could be blocked. And in light of the flip, I also think it's unlikely for Epik to be scum. The one possibility that comes to mind for Jordan and Epik being buddies is both weird and kinda the premise of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels.
Alright, back and ready to play for like the next 3 hours or so.
Time for some ANALYSIS DREADNOUGHTS.
Time for some ANALYSIS DREADNOUGHTS.
Hitmonleet and durzaofftopic are moreso POE/probability/everyone else being good. They don't have content and thus can't be definitively one or the other. Makes very little sense to Lynch when a FH (or KoC) is as or more likely to hit scum while also locking in the rest of the team
Texas, can we talk for a bit about why you think FH is scum?
He's.. been a token town read of mine for a while now and I'm really interested as to where you're coming from behavior-wise.
He's.. been a token town read of mine for a while now and I'm really interested as to where you're coming from behavior-wise.
IMDB exists. But the fact that the whole "I bet I can pocket better than you can" theory was that close to the plot of a movie makes it very implausible.
The concise version is that I scum read blazade, as did hawkie whose reads I trust, as did thunder ballz before he died. Blazade wagons have been consistently derailed when he was close to a lynch, first by jordan resulting in the tballz lynch and later by ep1k resulting in the twin lynch (reference post 569).
There's other stuff I'll probably go into further detail tomorrow but here's a list of people whose alignments are directly impacted by FHs flip
KoC: almost always the opposite alignment of FH. In post 656 KoC has ep1k, jordan, and FH/blazade as his three major scum reads. If KoC is town he's pretty much just hit the nose on the scum team, if he's scum then he used jordan as a lamb to push FH/3p1k
Hitmonleet: durza is usually scum here by virtue of poe and mass lurking. However, if FH flips scum he's all but assured as town. Reference blazade's post 430, where blazade names {whydon, durza, jordan, apricity} as people he'd lynch, scum almost never puts two of their buddies in their d2 lynch pool on a casual read like that
ep1k: alignment impacted by proxy of KoCs where a scum KoC makes scum ep1k heavily unlikely via post 656.
On the note of 3p1k, other points of interest include 3p1k being in large part responsible for both of the first two mislynches. He was the lead vote on the Tballz wagon as well as on the twin wagon - note that you wouldn't see that he was the leading vote on the twin wagon (reference vote count in 626) because after he pulled the wagon off of blazade to twin he flipped to jordan which as a scum action makes sense if he wants to mask his vote being the target. This whole tangent is directly relevant to KoCs alignment because KoC actually brought this up during d2 where it was mostly ignored for role discussion: KoC pushed 3p1k very hard on this point making it extremely unlikely that they are scum buddies - thus a potential KoC scum flip would clear 3p1k as town
Also related is jordan 814 where he votes 3p1k. To this point jordan had been very transparent with his attacks defenses so this is either jordan continuing to attack a town, or deciding to distance when it looks like he's getting lynched.
The above is why I don't want to see 3p1k live to LYLO, the majority of his game has been very towny but there's a very distinct world where he's playing a phenomenal scum game.
On the note of vote counts: the general guideline is you'll often find at least one scum in each of the main wagons and the main counterwagons, where "Not Voting" is included as a counterwagon. Ergo:
Final D1 Vote Count
Blazade (3): Aubisio, Hawkie, apricity
Thunder~BALLZ (4): 3P1K, Mithril, XnadrojX, thetwinmasters
Earlio (1): KnightsofCydonia
Whydon (1): jalmont
MoodyCloud (1): asek
DurzaOffTopic (2): MoodyCloud, Blazade
3P1K (1): Thunder~BALLZ
Not Voting (4): Haruno, DurzaOffTopic, Earlio, Whydon
Primary wagon is thunder ballz and we see a scum on it, in the typical third position. Scum often don't stack two on the same wagon, however if FH is scum then we review and see that blazade was under fire before TBallz got lynched and scum may have reached out to save their partner, this links jordan to blazade/FH and 3p1k. On the counterwagon we see aubisio/hawkie/apricity except, this isn't the actual counterwagon. The actual counterwagon is the Not Voting (4) where we have Haruno and Durza and Earlio and we almost always find at least one scum in this grouping, often two. This implicates Durza and Haruno. The final grouping to look at is the random off wagon votes which when viewed as a collective yields KnightsOfCydonia, Jalmont, MoodyCloud, and FH where we typically see one scum, occasionally two here, once again reinforcing the KoC/FH dichotomy given Moody and Jalmont are basically always town.
D2 Vote Count 2.6 DEADLINE
Blazade (2): Hawkie, Texas Cloverleaf,
Whydon (4): Aubisio, jalmont, Blazade, thetwinmasters
Jalmont (2): Haruno, KnightsofCydonia
thetwinmasters (5): apricity, Whydon, MoodyCloud, Earlio, XnadrojX,
XnadrojX (1): 3P1K
Not Voting (1): DurzaOffTopic
Main wagon has apricity/moody/earlio/jordan, obvious scum is obvious, just one on this wagon. Possibly two, however, if you consider the possibility of 3p1k unvoting twin and switching to the riskless jordan as a way to manipulate his appearance in the vote counts. There is a true counterwagon this time in Whydon where we see Aubisio, jalmont, and blazade/FH remaining - typically one scum in here. And the collective off wagoners including Hawkie/Proph, Haruno, KoC, 3p1k, and Durza where there is typically one or two scum in here.
So you can see how not only is there a high chance of former hope flipping scum (in spite of their generally towny tone at eod3) but their flip almost completely solves out the rest of the game in the implications it has on other slots.
And the last note to that point is that I won't deny that FH looks towny a lot, but that isn't enough to let him skate through - I've seen him play excellent, excellent scum games and the other points against him: wagons, interactions, and blazade's posts, are as compelling against him as his own tone is for him.
I can be convinced that a KoC vote is proper because it is entirely within the realm of possibility that he's a scum neighbourizer who tried to kill me n2 into Haruno's BG, but atm I think the correct play is to vote FH
MoodyCloud apricity thoughts on my theory that moody and aubisio are negative utility town roles to balance town power?
Thanks Texas, will take a look at that right now.
There was like.. one Blazade post I townread but I was just thinking that he was just disengaged from the game, which can come from either town or scum. I've liked FH's posts when he has replaced in; I can show you some posts tonally that I have liked and we can talk about them?
I'm scumreading KoC a lot more, will go why in my big reads post I'm working on right now.
There was like.. one Blazade post I townread but I was just thinking that he was just disengaged from the game, which can come from either town or scum. I've liked FH's posts when he has replaced in; I can show you some posts tonally that I have liked and we can talk about them?
I'm scumreading KoC a lot more, will go why in my big reads post I'm working on right now.
can confirm that I'm not negative utility
I've seen the posts you liked in my reread, not going to lie I liked a lot of his posts from around the same time. Everything before that, not so much
OK just finished reading your post.
I will look over FH and give you my fair shake on his posts, and figure out if he's pushing a scum agenda or not. Thinking about doing a FH/KoC ISO to see what shakes out since because Smogon's being a hot mess right now for me I haven't really had the chance to dive deep into those.
I will look over FH and give you my fair shake on his posts, and figure out if he's pushing a scum agenda or not. Thinking about doing a FH/KoC ISO to see what shakes out since because Smogon's being a hot mess right now for me I haven't really had the chance to dive deep into those.
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