Crisis in CK9++ City [Serial Killer Wins]

Now announcing the current votecount:
Cancerous [2*] - Panic Station, Clarinet
An Explosion [2] - HeaLnDeaL, smogon account
somitomi [1] - heuryalone
heuryalone [1] - Cancerous
Clarinet [1] - somitomi
JALMONT [1] - Sultan of Skook

I've made errors with the votecount before so feel free to correct me.
 
I'll help you out.

Panic Station said:
heuryalone You skimmed the Russian style mafia post?
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Panic Station said:
Also, I'd accuse you of cribbing my Rewind Clar read, but I remember the userlist blew up with a lot of guests.l
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Panic Station said:
Also, I already told you how likely SK is, in both the scenario where only the impossble scumroll is discarded and the scenario where the three highest scumrolls are discarded. Both are less than 50%.

People who ignore facts ping my scumdar hard.
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Panic Station made a small tab error, posted in the CAP discussion (sorry fellas, hope your meta's doing well, big fan of Scylant)
So, I'll relocate hi- never mind heury just did it.

No infractions or anything like that, just a good "pull yourself together" will see us through.
 
I read Rewind before this game started, so had an opinion on Clarinet before you said anything.

Sk has exactly 50% chance of being in this game. There is a 50% chance of rolling a T, and on half the T scenarios a serial killer is present. If an even number of T's are rolled then no sk. Odd number then guaranteed sk.
 
SK has a 50% chance if 7T roll is possible. Innocent Child means all rolls cannot be T, so that automatically makes the chance less than 50%. With all rolls except 7T possible, the chance is 3/7, 43% (rounded up from 42.857142857%).

If the 6T and 5T setups are discarded as well (I could argue probability, but it's mostly me wanting to play a game where the PR split isn't terribly scum-sided), the chance drops to 2/5, or 40%.
 
Panic Station said:
SK has a 50% chance if 7T roll is possible. Innocent Child means all rolls cannot be T, so that automatically makes the chance less than 50%. With all rolls except 7T possible, the chance is 3/7, 43% (rounded up from 42.857142857%).

If the 6T and 5T setups are discarded as well (I could argue probability, but it's mostly me wanting to play a game where the PR split isn't terribly scum-sided), the chance drops to 2/5, or 40%.
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Yea forgot to take into account of innocent child. But if we're dropping possibility of 7, 6, 5 T's based on statistics, then just as likely you have to drop the possibilities of 0, 1, 2 T's. 7 T's os the same likelihood as 0 T's. 6 T's is the same liklihood as 1 T. Thus leaving 3 or 4's and still at 50% chance. You can't just say you're assuming there arent 5 or 6 T's and yet assuming there to be 0, 1 or 2.
 
Statistically the most likely scenario is TTTIPKM with I or T being the most likely to have doubles. A is only a 5% chance, the smallest chance. Earlier in the game I mentioned that it was unlikely being a mason. That's because due to the fact we have an innocent child, there is a 60% chance of having another M, and from there 33% chance of it being a mason. Therefore our current game is 20% chance of having a mason.

I am going to assume no sk for now, just because searching scum is more important than finding sk and searching sk tends to lead to more mislynches.
 
>you are blind sir walrus bloodyrain, I hath provided my reasoning for my read
heal, in the readslist I just see "his iso itself is good, he's engaging far about surface level." without any examples, besides that you just go on about smogon being town. I'll go through your iso later since I assume you clarified it more in an earlier post and that I didn't see it because your recent posts were more clear in my memory. [I feel like I keep saying "I'll iso later" and not promptly doing it on stuff, sorry, coursework has kept me busy]
>heury's uno reverse "I was just getting reactions" card
This feels kind of weird on a gut level but I'll leave it for now? If this is the explanation for what happened earlier they'll be easier to read from now on at least.
Vote: Clarinet
I'm not deadset on this vote but JALMONT is more of a policy lynch, clarinet comes first on the lynch of lynchees.
 
Ok, I iso'd you, I didn't see it a more thorough explanation anywhere, blargh. Also, "soul read" thing reads a very slight town the second time around, if I were scum I don't think I'd mention something like that.
 
BLOODYRAIN10001 said:
Ok, I iso'd you, I didn't see it a more thorough explanation anywhere, blargh. Also, "soul read" thing reads a very slight town the second time around, if I were scum I don't think I'd mention something like that.
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"Mikey iso first thoughts - he is obv town. as obv town I sort of view him immune from this relationship web that I'm looking into. As town, he doesn't know any of the other 3 are scum or town. his iso itself is good, he's engaging far about surface level. he reminds me of what a certain player could play like if they weren't sidetracked in showing off and being an ass."

"On the relationship webs of the 4: I believe that Cancerous and Heury are doing a lot of acting; comedic roleplaying for Cancerous and sorta jokester/game trolling for Heury. Compared to them Clarinet's words seem less discernible as acting, even though I really don't think I've seen clarinet act quite like this before. Clarinet's mind jumps all over the place. My gut reaction is that a lot of comments from and about these players are more of just spew about the appropriateness of acting or the appropriateness of being annoying. Smogon tries to keep things on the game and is consistent with logic, Clarinet tries to keep things on the game but is inconsistent, and Cancerous and Heury more of keep things out of the game with their personas dominating their game involvement."

it might not be a "thorough" explanation, but not like read explanations need to be mountains.
 
smogon account said:
I think you need to reread what sultan said here
without actually saying exactly that, they also said that there wasn't really an agenda to it
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I don't disagree, my complaint was though that Skook's way of addressing that looked like he was trying to show off "look how hard I'm trying to analyze everything." If it's "nonsense" as he described it, it shouldn't take as much effort to say that as he put in.

Here to deadline (I think), should be caught up soon.
 
Y'know, the entire reason I voted Jalmont was to pressure them into saying something about the game, and it seems not even that will motivate them. Since a lynch on an inactive player D1 will never give the town momentum, Unvote: Jalmont
 
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