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NOC 11p gen 1 closed setup (D4 End: Dec 25 at 5 PM PST)
- Thread starter Nuxl
- Start date
show-off
Any particular reads you're bothered by? I remember feeling like their content near end of phase was an improvement over their earlier posts + there was a large gap between them so I'm not really bothered if their opinions changed between those parts because it kinda makes sense (unless there's something you thought really stuck out?
Fair, I guess.
Is this from today, or a read from earlier in the game?
do you want to elaborate? i think i'm pretty much agreed on as town by this point
them vibes cannot be explained
Thunder~BALLZ not to be impatient but can you give your reads by the end of today please?? don't want this to be another case of saying 'ok will give a read' and then you just fobbing off for the next couple of days. thanks!!
We don't get much information from Tommy's flip because it's still based on Former's gambit. We already have some information about Former's gambit (and even then not that much because the gambit is extremely pro-WIFOM and therefore anti-town), spending another day focussed on Former's anti-town lie is not a smart use of our time. Literally any other player provides better information because we get to look at who begins the push, how good their reasoning was, who the early adopters of the wagon is etc. etc.. We get none of that with Tommy because Former made the wagon for us and half the game was already on it, and we know that Former was lying the entire time so it's not a good wagon.
If we kill Tommy it should have nothing to do with Former. I townread him outside of that so I'm against it anyway.
I'm between doing things atm so I don't have time to go back and ISO, but I remember his progression being off. IIRC, didn't he vote Former, unvote Former, vote Former, and then vote BGB or something? It seems like leaving his options open more than anything else. If any player in the game is the one with a vested interest in carrying the Tommy-Former 1v1 through to D2 it was him.Eagle said:
The reaction test is unreadable. On one hand, it's feigning ignorance to look town. On the other hand, it's bad town.
This is a good take that I missed, BGB!scum is looking likelier than BGB!badtown now. He's been tunnelling Shub all game, jumping off it for a post is terrible progression.Eagle said:
I still scumlean Caff but bgb has been artificially null all game and this is enough for me to put him as a scumlean too.
Vote bluegummybear -- provide a rainbow because you only talk about like 4 players.
Why does it seem unbelievable to you? I see it as believable so ofc I'm approaching this with incredulity, but there's not much way to feign that much emotion. It was extremely frustrating to be on the other side of Former's trolling, speaking as the other person who was put in that position. Maybe that's why I empathise with Tommy, because I would've been doing exactly the same at EoD had Former not flipped to Tommy.Eagle said:
Hard agree that tbz should be replaced but tbh even tbz provides some info, particularly on Clarinet iirc.Eagle said:
Interested if you have an update for this? Scanned the rest of the thread up until this post and don't think I saw it.Eagle said:
This depends on how good we think Caff is. It's a viable scum play to make an obviously wrong thought in order to be corrected, since it makes you seem lost and allows you to get away with more.Eagle said:
This is NAI, since he can also be pondering his options as scum in the bath. I've honestly not seen much solving from him, which all these baths should be soliciting. It's more so "what wagon should I jump on now", which mafia also have to ponder in order to try and look towny.Eagle said:
I can understand this FYPOV but FMPOV I had the opposite reaction to the cop claim so this point doesn't really wash with me tbh.Eagle said:
Is this not just using the upcoming Former flip as a way to earn town cred? "I thought he was town the whole time idk why y'all killed him".Eagle said:
I also think this is NAI tbh.Eagle said:
Your case is fine and I understand it FYPOV but I interpret everything in either an opposite or NAI way. I'm not really sure why, maybe I'm just cynical :L
I'm not gonna lie.
The logic in this post is so bad that I think it's scummy.
Town Tommy interprets what Former was doing as trolling 100% of the time. TBH scum Tommy probably also interprets it as trolling because Former never raised a valid point and just shouted that Tommy was scum really frequently and loudly.
Former literally was a joke this game, dismissing his comedy is valid.
^ The reason why I think this is scummy is a complete lack of trying to look at things from other players' perspectives. It reads like he's trying to figure out who could garner votes, not who's actually scum, which is of course the aim of mafia and not town.
NGL even though I think I still scumlean you, ty for providing a rainbow why is no one in this game doing this.
For me I think Eagle is OK to assume as town for a while because he's active and trying to solve, and has an overall quite towny tone. If we focus on the players who are offering less contribution to the thread (Caff, BGB, TBZ, Shub), there's almost definitely at least one scum there, and whichever one it is implicates their partner especially if they're a more active player like Eagle.
That's my gameplan rn, anyway. Who knows if it'll pan out not me.
The reason why is because I stand by that the best play toward Former's obvious trolling was to lurk and let it blow over. That's why the entire """"gambit"""" was doomed from the outset and was genuinely just poorly designed.
Admittedly this doesn't apply to Caff but iirc Caff was very wishy-washy and non-committal with the Former thing so he's included. The ones who actually took a side get town cred because town are forced to reply to a baseless lynch made by a troll, and so replying to it and taking a side is pro-town mindset. People who ignored it did optimal mafia play.
^^^ And on second thought I'm adding Clarinet's immediate joking with Former's gambit (the only player to reply the first time Former tried it) as a pretty towny move. Scum usually try to avoid obvious bait, so Clarinet being an early adopter is either towny or galaxybrain scum.
^^^^^^ ALSO the fact that Caff was active the first time Former tried it and ignored it and then later iirc voted bgb because he believed it while throwing shade on Former the whole time? That’s actually very scummy it’s trying all his options as scum out to see what lands.
I feel like I must be misremembering Caff’s progression surely he didn’t do this?
I feel like I must be misremembering Caff’s progression surely he didn’t do this?
ok celever passed the reaction test i'm willing to just go with him as town.
(reaction test being bringing up the fact that he susses everyone who susses him, and then proceeding to suss him myself. if he susses me back it's because he thinks that's what he's meant to do and not because it's natural)
Here's my thinking:
Voting Duskfall Off:
Flips Maf -> bgb is probably maf, along with 1 of sb or tballz. I can maybe see shubaka instead of bgb tbh based on how dusk has played today. no idea who we vote out first.
Flips Town -> caffbo is maf, along with shubaka and 1 of sb or tballz. i think dusk flipping town clears bgb tbh, a maf bgb would look more into the duskfall vote rather than just constantly tunneling shubaka. we vote shubaka out first.
Voting bgb off:
Flips Maf -> duskfall is maf, along with 1 of sb or tballz. we vote duskfall out first.
Flips Town -> this is not an ideal situation because duskfall could still be maf here but i'm willing to just gamble him as a tr. caffbo is maf again, along with shubaka and 1 of sb or tballz. we prob vote shub out first.
sb or tballz based on process of elimination because i townread celever/clarinet
i don't know which person i'd rather vote off today (prob bgb because duskfall flipping maf gives less info) but i think we vote off one of them
i know this is a lot to take in, i'll elaborate more in a few hours when i'm free again
tl;dr i'm very confident there's a scumpair in either duskfall/bgb or caffbo/shubaka
(reaction test being bringing up the fact that he susses everyone who susses him, and then proceeding to suss him myself. if he susses me back it's because he thinks that's what he's meant to do and not because it's natural)
Here's my thinking:
Voting Duskfall Off:
Flips Maf -> bgb is probably maf, along with 1 of sb or tballz. I can maybe see shubaka instead of bgb tbh based on how dusk has played today. no idea who we vote out first.
Flips Town -> caffbo is maf, along with shubaka and 1 of sb or tballz. i think dusk flipping town clears bgb tbh, a maf bgb would look more into the duskfall vote rather than just constantly tunneling shubaka. we vote shubaka out first.
Voting bgb off:
Flips Maf -> duskfall is maf, along with 1 of sb or tballz. we vote duskfall out first.
Flips Town -> this is not an ideal situation because duskfall could still be maf here but i'm willing to just gamble him as a tr. caffbo is maf again, along with shubaka and 1 of sb or tballz. we prob vote shub out first.
sb or tballz based on process of elimination because i townread celever/clarinet
i don't know which person i'd rather vote off today (prob bgb because duskfall flipping maf gives less info) but i think we vote off one of them
i know this is a lot to take in, i'll elaborate more in a few hours when i'm free again
tl;dr i'm very confident there's a scumpair in either duskfall/bgb or caffbo/shubaka
If you're talking about Former's gambit this is correct. I remembered it later while I was having a bath then decided to look for it to get meta.
to clarify: no this was right after former's gambit, not during EoD
also as bgb has claimed vanilla townie he's a better vote off because we're either hitting vanilla townie or maf rather than any role townie and maf
for the record i think there's a 50/50 which way bgb flips
but there's like a 95/5 on the next day flip (try not to think about the fact that it could be lylo)
for the record i think there's a 50/50 which way bgb flips
but there's like a 95/5 on the next day flip (try not to think about the fact that it could be lylo)
i need to stop going back on myself here, i'm gonna sleep on it, there's way too much going on in my head atm and i'm just stressing way too much
shub: very on-the-fence over everything, lots of null reads and 'they're probably not maf but we can look into it later' which sounds like keeping options open in a way maf would want so they never look like they're townclearing anyone. but then you get stuff like
which, yeah, that's kinda true, very valid
i wish former actually explained his thought processes rather than just stating them, it's so frustrating to hear thoughts like 'if bgb is maf then dusk is confirmed maf' without anything backing it up -- it's only the reaction that bgb has after (along with the lack of interaction during most of the day) that has me buying into that theory
i think by voting bgb, we clear shub and caffbo if he's maf, if he's village then we prob clear dusk...except we don't because a maf dusk would totally like to push a maf shubaka vote in order to make themselves look less scummy
also to note is that UTO thought bgb was town, is now dead -- but i don't know how relevant that is, probably not at all
i looked at dusk's meta earlier today and yeah he tunnels but he doesn't tunnel *as* ridiculously hard as what he did w/ former...but then i looked at his games when he's maf and...he barely tunnels, or tunnels much less. but he has a whiny tone/propensity for calling everyone dumb for voting him/not voting who he wants to vote off, and that holds true here in this game! so meta read basically inconclusive hmm
but he's seemed pretty towny today
i really don't get his aggression but celever does and says he would've done the same and i townread celever (basically if celever's maf then ggwp), and it seems in line w/ meta plays
ugh i do think a bgb vote off would tell us a lot
i know these thoughts haven't amounted to much but i just wanted to type out my thought process so i can maybe figure out what i want to do today
do i see all 3 of bgb, shub, and former wagons being t/t/t wagons?? i don't think so
tbz existing is a handicap
ok so my thoughts are:
i personally tr bgb more than shub, but i think a lot of that is down to bgb having a playstyle i automatically tr (much like how i said that former's playstyle i automatically sr). however i think a bgb flip would give more info than a shub flip.
if there's a cop btw what is the optimum strategy atm
shub: very on-the-fence over everything, lots of null reads and 'they're probably not maf but we can look into it later' which sounds like keeping options open in a way maf would want so they never look like they're townclearing anyone. but then you get stuff like
which, yeah, that's kinda true, very valid
i wish former actually explained his thought processes rather than just stating them, it's so frustrating to hear thoughts like 'if bgb is maf then dusk is confirmed maf' without anything backing it up -- it's only the reaction that bgb has after (along with the lack of interaction during most of the day) that has me buying into that theory
i think by voting bgb, we clear shub and caffbo if he's maf, if he's village then we prob clear dusk...except we don't because a maf dusk would totally like to push a maf shubaka vote in order to make themselves look less scummy
also to note is that UTO thought bgb was town, is now dead -- but i don't know how relevant that is, probably not at all
i looked at dusk's meta earlier today and yeah he tunnels but he doesn't tunnel *as* ridiculously hard as what he did w/ former...but then i looked at his games when he's maf and...he barely tunnels, or tunnels much less. but he has a whiny tone/propensity for calling everyone dumb for voting him/not voting who he wants to vote off, and that holds true here in this game! so meta read basically inconclusive hmm
but he's seemed pretty towny today
i really don't get his aggression but celever does and says he would've done the same and i townread celever (basically if celever's maf then ggwp), and it seems in line w/ meta plays
ugh i do think a bgb vote off would tell us a lot
i know these thoughts haven't amounted to much but i just wanted to type out my thought process so i can maybe figure out what i want to do today
do i see all 3 of bgb, shub, and former wagons being t/t/t wagons?? i don't think so
tbz existing is a handicap
ok so my thoughts are:
i personally tr bgb more than shub, but i think a lot of that is down to bgb having a playstyle i automatically tr (much like how i said that former's playstyle i automatically sr). however i think a bgb flip would give more info than a shub flip.
if there's a cop btw what is the optimum strategy atm