surprise surprise i got shit to do nowadays
-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
NOC Bigvivor Mafia Game Thread Day 5
- Thread starter Tommy
- Start date
you get four hours of scumhunting from me tomorrow afternoon and then i'm afk for the weekend
When are those 4 hours?
when i'm on a train roughly 6-10ish pm
what timezone is that?
I'll give my insight into what's happening tomorrow most likely. If you thought Realiti's list was bad, you have another thing coming.
for real though, I think my read list is almost the opposite of Realiti's.
Partial mason. I target a user every night and upon hitting a specified user I form a mason chat with them. Otherwise does nothing.
Unsure if mason buddy knows about me since dusk refused to clarify. Also unsure of their alignment so .-.
Mine is literally almost opposite too so we might mind meld lmfao
Why do you think they could be non-town? Idg why Dusk would nerf the Mason only for you to find a baddy.
if they didnt know about you before they sure do now...
A hunch on my end pretty much, since if it was straight mason then it makes no sense on why dusk wouldn't set it up that way?
It's one sided from what I can assume so I have no idea what the person I'm targeting does or their alignment.
Ughhhhhh merely catching up feels so impossible people churn out so much useless content
I'm going to focus on the flips and my reads and if I missed anything amongst the cavalcade of trolling in this thread pls inform me of such
First, we have the Apricity angleshoot on Hydrogen. I can't make heads or tails of this tbh, I think the most likely option is that Apricity decided he had a hard read on someone (in this case, Hydrogen) and constructed a crazy backstory to get them voted and organize the village. In fact, I'm not even sure what else reasonably could have happened given the flips (DLE pointed out the possibility of framer, but I'm nearly certain that is wrong for reasons I will get into below). I'm going to assume this was just Apricity trying to make a play since I don't think there's much else to be gleaned out of this interaction at this point.
Second, there's the Hydrogen role itself. DLE mentioned it looks odd as a village role and on the face of it I agree - results stealer is definitely a typical scum role. However, I think the suggest role almost always has to be village here, if I'm understanding it correctly. My understanding of it (after reading and re-reading it for like ten minutes) is that we have two groups of people:
1. People who can kill
2. People who can suggest kills
It looks like how our vigilante works is that we need to have at least one person alive in both groups, and people can shift from group 2. to group 1. in the event there is no one left in group 1. The people in group 2 determine the pool of targets that can be killed, and the people in group 1 then pick and choose who to kill based on that list. This is actually really good design if you think about it, because it almost guarantees that our vig doesn't get randomly offed in the early game.
However, given the design, I think it is almost certain that the suggest is a village role. It would be crazy broken for the mafia to be able to control the village vigilante - so broken, in fact, that I would honestly dismiss that as a reasonable possibility. I actually do think there's a chance that at least one person in group 1 is either mafia or third party - it seems like they need to kill from a list submitted by the people in group 2, so that would leave the village with a 'vigilante' but if we vote out enough enemies then we lose the ability to kill. It's a really clever balancing design if that's the case, though I certainly wouldn't discount the chance that the group 1 members are just villagers as well. Either way, I'm inclined to trust group 2 members and less inclined to trust group 1 (though not ready to condemn group 1 by a long shot either).
The long and the short of it is that for the Hydrogen role to be mafia in actuality and the flip to be faked / janitor'd as was hypothesized, we need to accept that ALL of the following occurred:
- Mafia have access to the village vigilante suggestion list
- Mafia have a framer / janitor role that works during the day (rather than during the prior night, as would typically be the case - remember that there was no prior night)
- Mafia could not come up with a more believable secondary ability than 'results stealer'
In short, while I think DLE's theory is interesting, I just don't buy it in reality. I'm now going to move on from analyzing Hydrogen's role.
Third, we have Apricity's role. This is...less interesting. It looks pretty bog standard village, and seems to indicate that clever usage of role interactions and problem-solving are prioritized over rand-checking the right people (i.e. like an alignment cop would be). I don't think much can be gleaned from this either, so let's move on.
Fourth, let's discuss their reads.
Apricity's last serious post was I think #1147. In it, he states that I am scum if Hydrogen is (which I think it is pretty clear he was not, see my points above), Texas he seems to find scummy somewhat as a result of the Hydrogen thing but I feel like he also expressed some suspicion of Texas separately so I wouldn't say this read is invalidated, then says he dislikes Haruno third. I do find it interesting that there's been pushes onto Haruno (I think by Celever?) while totally skipping over Texas this day - some soft buddying seems to be happening there that I think we should take a closer look at.
I can't find a serious reads post by Hydrogen in the ten pages prior to the final EOD post, but maybe I missed something. I don't recall him having any strong reads or suspicions but I'm hoping someone who likes the ISOing portion of NOCs more than I do can dig through that, I just don't have the patience to read walls of text or to dig through the thread any more. I find the role and design analysis much more interesting :D
tl;dr for those who don't want to read all of the above:
- I am nearly certain Hydrogen was actually clueless village (and was not 'framer'd' or 'janitor'd'), Apricity had a read, framed him to make a big play, and was wrong
- The way the vigilante works heavily suggests (heh see what I did here) that we have a number of villagers who interact with the kill mechanic, and we can probably use this to our advantage down the line to soft-clear people
- I find it somewhat odd that there is soft buddying between Celever and Texas and I think pushing on this connection is the best play for now
- I haven't thought too much about Haruno's role claim but it is just zany enough that I doubt he totally made it up. I'm not certain it is alignment indicative either, however
In light of point 3 from my summary above, vote Texas Cloverleaf. You've pretty much been trolling this entire game and I know you're better than that + the Celever connection is interesting and I want to see both of your takes on each other, I want Celever to reply to why he skipped over Texas entirely in evaluating Apricity's reads, and I want to see you post some real takes on players. At the very least offer your opinion on the role breakdowns / analysis I provided above and offer some suggestions as to whose play you find odd etc. - I'm way out of the NOC meta here and won't pick up on subtle tells so I am primarily interested in hearing takes of these nature at the moment (this goes for from everyone btw, not just whoever I am pressuring currently).
Celever
Texas Cloverleaf
Outside of this I've liked M2H's play across both days so far. I don't have any other reads substantive enough to merit sharing at the moment though I do like DLE on D2 so far.
Now if you'll excuse me that is plenty of NOCing for me for one night. I'll check back tomorrow. Ping me if I missed something important.
- Friendly neighborhood hydra
I'm going to focus on the flips and my reads and if I missed anything amongst the cavalcade of trolling in this thread pls inform me of such
First, we have the Apricity angleshoot on Hydrogen. I can't make heads or tails of this tbh, I think the most likely option is that Apricity decided he had a hard read on someone (in this case, Hydrogen) and constructed a crazy backstory to get them voted and organize the village. In fact, I'm not even sure what else reasonably could have happened given the flips (DLE pointed out the possibility of framer, but I'm nearly certain that is wrong for reasons I will get into below). I'm going to assume this was just Apricity trying to make a play since I don't think there's much else to be gleaned out of this interaction at this point.
Second, there's the Hydrogen role itself. DLE mentioned it looks odd as a village role and on the face of it I agree - results stealer is definitely a typical scum role. However, I think the suggest role almost always has to be village here, if I'm understanding it correctly. My understanding of it (after reading and re-reading it for like ten minutes) is that we have two groups of people:
1. People who can kill
2. People who can suggest kills
It looks like how our vigilante works is that we need to have at least one person alive in both groups, and people can shift from group 2. to group 1. in the event there is no one left in group 1. The people in group 2 determine the pool of targets that can be killed, and the people in group 1 then pick and choose who to kill based on that list. This is actually really good design if you think about it, because it almost guarantees that our vig doesn't get randomly offed in the early game.
However, given the design, I think it is almost certain that the suggest is a village role. It would be crazy broken for the mafia to be able to control the village vigilante - so broken, in fact, that I would honestly dismiss that as a reasonable possibility. I actually do think there's a chance that at least one person in group 1 is either mafia or third party - it seems like they need to kill from a list submitted by the people in group 2, so that would leave the village with a 'vigilante' but if we vote out enough enemies then we lose the ability to kill. It's a really clever balancing design if that's the case, though I certainly wouldn't discount the chance that the group 1 members are just villagers as well. Either way, I'm inclined to trust group 2 members and less inclined to trust group 1 (though not ready to condemn group 1 by a long shot either).
The long and the short of it is that for the Hydrogen role to be mafia in actuality and the flip to be faked / janitor'd as was hypothesized, we need to accept that ALL of the following occurred:
- Mafia have access to the village vigilante suggestion list
- Mafia have a framer / janitor role that works during the day (rather than during the prior night, as would typically be the case - remember that there was no prior night)
- Mafia could not come up with a more believable secondary ability than 'results stealer'
In short, while I think DLE's theory is interesting, I just don't buy it in reality. I'm now going to move on from analyzing Hydrogen's role.
Third, we have Apricity's role. This is...less interesting. It looks pretty bog standard village, and seems to indicate that clever usage of role interactions and problem-solving are prioritized over rand-checking the right people (i.e. like an alignment cop would be). I don't think much can be gleaned from this either, so let's move on.
Fourth, let's discuss their reads.
Apricity's last serious post was I think #1147. In it, he states that I am scum if Hydrogen is (which I think it is pretty clear he was not, see my points above), Texas he seems to find scummy somewhat as a result of the Hydrogen thing but I feel like he also expressed some suspicion of Texas separately so I wouldn't say this read is invalidated, then says he dislikes Haruno third. I do find it interesting that there's been pushes onto Haruno (I think by Celever?) while totally skipping over Texas this day - some soft buddying seems to be happening there that I think we should take a closer look at.
I can't find a serious reads post by Hydrogen in the ten pages prior to the final EOD post, but maybe I missed something. I don't recall him having any strong reads or suspicions but I'm hoping someone who likes the ISOing portion of NOCs more than I do can dig through that, I just don't have the patience to read walls of text or to dig through the thread any more. I find the role and design analysis much more interesting :D
tl;dr for those who don't want to read all of the above:
- I am nearly certain Hydrogen was actually clueless village (and was not 'framer'd' or 'janitor'd'), Apricity had a read, framed him to make a big play, and was wrong
- The way the vigilante works heavily suggests (heh see what I did here) that we have a number of villagers who interact with the kill mechanic, and we can probably use this to our advantage down the line to soft-clear people
- I find it somewhat odd that there is soft buddying between Celever and Texas and I think pushing on this connection is the best play for now
- I haven't thought too much about Haruno's role claim but it is just zany enough that I doubt he totally made it up. I'm not certain it is alignment indicative either, however
In light of point 3 from my summary above, vote Texas Cloverleaf. You've pretty much been trolling this entire game and I know you're better than that + the Celever connection is interesting and I want to see both of your takes on each other, I want Celever to reply to why he skipped over Texas entirely in evaluating Apricity's reads, and I want to see you post some real takes on players. At the very least offer your opinion on the role breakdowns / analysis I provided above and offer some suggestions as to whose play you find odd etc. - I'm way out of the NOC meta here and won't pick up on subtle tells so I am primarily interested in hearing takes of these nature at the moment (this goes for from everyone btw, not just whoever I am pressuring currently).
Celever
Texas Cloverleaf
Outside of this I've liked M2H's play across both days so far. I don't have any other reads substantive enough to merit sharing at the moment though I do like DLE on D2 so far.
Now if you'll excuse me that is plenty of NOCing for me for one night. I'll check back tomorrow. Ping me if I missed something important.
- Friendly neighborhood hydra
i find your face odd
I think you're right about HHs role it reads to me like the kind of think designed to grow in power over time, the results stealer in particular gets significantly stronger under a full claim when any info roles can be verified by his results, I'm a little cloudy on the suggest thing, the throwing out names for an order of priority seems clear enough, controlling the vig direction with a divestment of power but also inheriting the vig? I guess that makes sense to balance the killing power but not sure I understand the circumstance where an inheritance would happen. Framer doesn't really make sense to be in any case cause dusk has been pretty straight with us and that's a super bastard mechanic that I don't even want to entertain tbh
I'm considerably less concerned about celever and co than working out the angles of harunos claim
