Cyclizar outspeeding a metric ton of mons, especially with Choice Scarf, is pretty darn good at letting it get off the first Shed Tail in the first place. Thing is, if you lose the 50/50 and the Sub breaks, assuming you don't have screens or opposing attack/special attack debuffs up, Cyclizar basically has to re-enter on a double switch, when one of your mons gets KOed, a Ghost attack, or a rare resisted or somehow neutral hit that Cyclizar actually doesn't take too much from - it can't just "spam Shed Tail" "over and over again":That's kind of my point with Orthworm. Yes, you get a slow Shed Tail which means if you are able to get the Shed Tail off, you get a guaranteed sub, but it comes with the trade-offs of being 1-2 times max per game and actually sacrificing health on Orthworm. I find it very difficult to be able to get off Shed Tail AND use any of the other moves on Orthworm's set. On the other hand, Cyclizar can just spam Shed Tail, maybe better than into passive mons thank Orthworm thanks to Taunt, although I find myself just clicking Shed Tail anyways. Regenerator makes it so forgiving. I think in front of more offensive mons, Cyclizar's ability to outspeed is actually pretty valuable. Orthworm has to fear getting chipped below 50%, Cyclizar doesn't care. It also means it turns into a guessing game, where the outcome if you guess right is a favorable outcome, but guess wrong and you lose a grand total of 12% of Cyclizar's health.
Example: Cyclizar vs. Great Tusk, you have the choice of passing to your Salamence or passing to your Iron Bundle
Pass to Salamence --> Great Tusk used Close Combat --> Sub stays up
Pass to Salamence --> Great Tusk used Headlong Rush --> Sub stays up
Pass to Salamence --> Great Tusk used Ice Spinner --> Oh no, you're Sub broke! --> Salamence used Hurricane
Pass to Iron Bundle --> Great Tusk used Close Combat --> Oh no, you're Sub broke! --> Iron Bundle used Hydro Pump
Pass to Iron Bundle --> Great Tusk used Headlong Rush --> Oh no, you're Sub broke! --> Iron Bundle used Hydro Pump
Pass to Iron Bundle --> Great Tusk used Ice Spinner --> Sub stays up
Cyclizar can do this over and over again thanks to Regenerator. He constantly forces these "50/50s" where you lose nothing from the sub breaking but gain a major advantage if you guess right. It only gets easier with screens up.
Think about it though, the consolation prize is getting a free pivot into any mon you want. It's like a slow U-Turn except the mon using U-Turn only gets hit by a move that does 12% damage. This is the difference:
Pass Shed Tail to Salamence --> Great Tusk used Ice Spinner --> Oh no, you're Sub broke! --> Salamence used Hurricane
U-Turn to Salamence --> Great Tusk used Ice Spinner --> R.I.P
252 Atk Quaquaval Aqua Step vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Cyclizar: 87-103 (25.2 - 29.9%) -- guaranteed 4HKO (lose one 50/50 with Shed Tail and watch your opponent get Stealth Rock up and Cyclizar can't switch into this for profit unless it's Boots - and if it's Boots, you have bigger problems)
252 Atk Palafin-Hero Flip Turn vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Cyclizar: 81-96 (23.5 - 27.9%) -- 83.9% chance to 4HKO (same deal as Quaquaval Aqua Step)
0- Atk Iron Bundle Flip Turn vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Cyclizar: 34-41 (9.8 - 11.9%) -- possible 9HKO (finally, a move that non-Boots Cyclizar can switch into for profit after losing a 50/50 with Shed Tail and getting beaned by Stealth Rock once! Too bad you just switched into a pivot move)
252 Atk Iron Treads Rapid Spin vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Cyclizar: 70-83 (20.3 - 24.1%) -- guaranteed 5HKO (this is a 68.8% chance to take 5/6ths-of-full-health Cyclizar below 50% after Stealth Rock - so you're telling me that, after losing a 50/50 with Shed Tail and switching into Rocks, non-Boots Cyclizar basically can't switch into Rapid Spin for profit, either?!?)
0- Atk Dragapult U-turn vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Cyclizar: 75-89 (21.8 - 25.8%) -- 2.9% chance to 4HKO (see Jolly Scarf Palafin-Hero Flip Turn)
252 Atk Pawmot Thunder Punch vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Cyclizar: 80-94 (23.2 - 27.3%) -- 63.7% chance to 4HKO (all Pawmot needs is Choice Scarf and Volt Absorb/Natural Cure to prevent non-Boots Cyclizar from switching into Thunder Punch and Stealth Rock for profit after losing a 50/50 with Shed Tail)
0 Atk Clodsire Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Cyclizar: 120-142 (34.8 - 41.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO (yikes, even Boots Cyclizar can't switch into this stallmon's Earthquake for profit after losing a 50/50 with Shed Tail)
0 Atk Dondozo Liquidation vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Cyclizar: 64-76 (18.6 - 22%) -- possible 5HKO (and this still somehow has a chance of leaving non-Boots Cyclizar too low to use Shed Tail a second time after losing a 50/50 with Shed Tail and switching into Stealth Rock)
In my experience, my team generally gets too worn out after the first 2 Shed Tails for Cyclizar to pull off Shed Tail a third time.
...This is where the Orthworm-being-easier-to-use arguments come in again. While you will have to give up on Shed Tail dreams on Orthworm some of the time as you successfully wall Baxcalibur or Maushold with Orthworm but take too much damage Body Pressing the Godzilla dragon and the cluster of mice to hell, you probably have that already in mind if you're building with Orthworm and thinking "thank goodness I have a Steel-type that is immune to Ground and can do game-swinging things". While Orthworm is indeed only Shed Tailing 1-2 times at most per game, those Shed Tails are significantly more likely to be decisive than Cyclizar's because those Subs actually survive the turn they're made way more than half the time - and Orthworm can still pull off the first Shed Tail fairly often even when hit down to Sitrus Berry. And when Cyclizar is only Shed Tailing 2-3 times per game without support...I know which Shed Tail user I'd rather use.
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