NOC eli loves matrices game thread [Game Over, Town Win!]

A note on Vizh, I haven't confirmed this reading of Caff myself yet but someone (perhaps Salamence?) noted that they felt like Caff began panicking more when Nuxl confirmed that in the event of a tie, the first person to hit the tie is the person who is voted out. If this is the case, Caff x Vizh becomes significantly less likely, because Caff would have spam pinged Vizh to vote ASAP, and mafia!Vizh has absolutely no reason not to do so. There was enough of a window for it to happen in, and it was a window that I am 99% sure Vizh voted during.

So if Caff did begin getting panicky around or from that point, Vizh' vote equity decreases in my opinion by a fair amount.
 
Celever said:
A note on Vizh, I haven't confirmed this reading of Caff myself yet but someone (perhaps Salamence?) noted that they felt like Caff began panicking more when Nuxl confirmed that in the event of a tie, the first person to hit the tie is the person who is voted out. If this is the case, Caff x Vizh becomes significantly less likely, because Caff would have spam pinged Vizh to vote ASAP, and mafia!Vizh has absolutely no reason not to do so. There was enough of a window for it to happen in, and it was a window that I am 99% sure Vizh voted during.

So if Caff did begin getting panicky around or from that point, Vizh' vote equity decreases in my opinion by a fair amount.
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Vizh posted during* lol
 
Psypsypsypsypsythe said:
okay i guess if celever is going to keep undermining me ill find a new wagon

vote laurel

it just doesnt have the same feeling to it
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Yeah I mean I realised that and I'd be lying if I said you voting for Vizh didn't make my two brain cells form some kind of intelligent thought in my head but if I didn't post it immediately and undermine you the two brain cells would've forgotten the smart thing, and that only happens every so often :psysad:
 
Psypsypsypsypsythe said:
you outright said i was anti town. this specific wording youre using isnt gonna trick people into forgetting that you did push me and you were trying to get me killed
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I am legitimately not going to argue with you over this kind of semantic because people need to see these posts, but anti-town and mafia are indeed two terms that mean different things. I suppose it is "specific" wording, just as every word is. That's how sentences are formed.
 
Celever said:
I am legitimately not going to argue with you over this kind of semantic because people need to see these posts, but anti-town and mafia are indeed two terms that mean different things. I suppose it is "specific" wording, just as every word is. That's how sentences are formed.
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my point isnt the difference between anti town vs mafia because my point is that youre claim is that you werent talking about voting me before this post but thats not true because the things you said beforehand were rooted in trying to turn peopple against me
 
Schiavetto said:
Was genuinely wondering how long it would take you to notice if I kept my vote there after dropping the post lmao. Crazy it took you this long.

I get home within the hour. There's a chance I move back to Cel or Psy but I'd actually much rather go here in the meantime:

Unvote Celever

Vote OM
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Psypsypsypsypsythe said:
I had the thought for a while but I dont remember why I didnt point it out. figured no one would care I guess

vote om
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celever something ill remind you to check out is that on the page before schia votes om and i join, i vote schia (which is what aura is following here). if youre stuck on the dichotomy between them and i then that might help you work through it
 
Celever said:
So now here is the part where I am gonna speak about voting Psy, nothing before now was that and I wasn't just trying to paint him as mafia look at this cool signposting I'm doing

If we decide to vote purely based on the wagonomics of yesterday's vote, Psy should from an analytical point of view be the target of that vote. Schia pitched the vote, which increases visibility a lot and really opens their neck up if the counterwagon fails. It is absolutely possible Schia took that as a calculated risk, but I am unsure that that risk makes much sense for them given the gamestate. There were a number of potential wagons when Schia placed down the OM vote and the "optimal" mafia play there is to just, jump on one of those.

The timing of yesterday's events matter greatly, too. It was a significant matter of hours between Schia placing the initial OM vote, and Psy adding fuel to the wagon. Psy jumped on the OM vote about 50 minutes before deadline (IIRC) and in doing so, given his self-assignment as Most Visible Player, locked in the OM vote as the chosen counter-wagon. There were still alternatives at this time, such as TBZ (as this is before TBZ arrived on the scene), but Psy instead opted to jump on OM. This could be down to some or all of these factors:
  • Psy is town and actually Just Liked The OM Vote More (Schia is mafia or town)
    • Psy had previously voted Caff multiple times that day, and might have overall scumread them more than townread them? It's Psy, he doesn't have a solid platform on anything. That's why he's unreadable. But certainly, the hard shift from genuinely seemingly being willing to vote Caff out that day to landing on OM out of nowhere is odd. Frankly, this is part of what informed my vote for Caff, as not just the timing but this lack of progression is what really locked OM in as a flashwagon.
    • Psy's own explanation -- which is that he felt that if OM were town then we could just vote Schia out today, and so he wanted to flip OM. Immediately this is fascinating, because it doesn't loop Caff into the justification at all. Once again, Psy for the most part did not townread Caff in the thread, and this is a really shaky justification for a D1 flashwagon. OM provides information on one (1) slot in Schia, and even that is a fairly tenuous link full of assumptions. Caff is the information vote between the two because he provided content. Frankly there is a chance that this is a slight perspective slip, as (and I am happy to be signposted to where I'm wrong if I am, I think my brain is unable to hold the quantity of words Psy has posted in this thread in its chambers) I don't believe Psy has, even after the fact, really provided a balanced "I voted OM because and I didn't vote Caff because" argument, as though voting for Caff was never a viable option.
  • Psy is Mafia and Schia is Town
    • This is the likeliest outcome. Schia's case, unfortunately, just was not that good. Many of the votes on the OM wagon came from a pro-Caff stance as opposed to an anti-OM one. It was a meta-informed activity tell, you can't buy a postage stamp with how much that case is really worth, especially considering you just have to take Schia at their word about OM's scum meta. This is relevant, because it leaves Schia open to flanking from mafia. It is exceptionally easy to jump on the OM vote to save Caff and throw Schia in front of the firing squad afterwards as the ideologue of a flashwagon that was at best informed by a niche justification. I even noted during EoD yesterday that if I were mafia, that is what I would have done, and that realisation was another part of the reason why I voted for Caff instead.
    • The above is such a likely strategy that was employed by someone, that it is why we can be fairly confident there is at least one mafia who voted for Caff. Psy is the optimal target from a game theory standpoint, because he is the person who turned OM into the counterwagon. Choosing a counterwagon has a lot of considerations, and OM was likely chosen because this wagon had an easy scapegoat for tomorrow. If Schia is town, I believe it definitely was. And Psy was the chooser.
    • Psy waited until Schia returned and didn't change their vote before jumping on it. This timing does make some sense for a Psy!Mafia Schia!Town universe, though I believe it also...
  • Psy is Mafia and Schia is Mafia
    • ...could easily be because Psy knew his jumping on the OM wagon without Schia to back him up as the brains of the operation would only really make the wagon lose steam. Energy is important in mafia, a moving train is far more exciting than a stationary one. If Psy joined Schia on the OM vote earlier than he did, the probability is that we probably discuss it for 5 mins, and then deadline comes closer and AG throws a vote on TBZ and we all go "oh yeah ok I'll vote TBZ". It is extremely plausible that Schia told Psy to wait for them to get back from work so they could do the counterwagon properly, especially considering how much Schia!Mafia has stuck their neck out in order to try to save Caff.
    • This is a sidenote, but I fundamentally disagree with Psy's row on Schia's chart. This makes this possibility more reasonable.
Just in terms of the wagonomics, voting Schia out instead of Psy, if we are basing the vote today primarily on yesterday's wagon, does not make sense from a game theory standpoint. That doesn't mean we can't do it, but we have to bring in other analysis that is not so much to do with the last hour of D1 for it to be a justifiable move.
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FWIW removing the timing part of this just removes the S/S equity a little, and then replaces the S/S equity with the fact Psy jumped on the vote immediately. Like, immediately.

The immediacy of Psy's vote also uh, undermines his entire explanation of why he voted for OM (which is framed in bullet point 1). He argued it was for information on Schia, but he voted before Schia even posted their case. The specifics of Psy's argument for OM being a good vote to get info on Schia include Schia's reasoning and that they have done the manoeuvre before or pushing a D1 meta wagon onto town as scum. Considering Psy voted before Schia actually did the manoeuvre (simply just voted without that rationale) Psy's explanation is contradictory to the actual events.
 
M24 said:
These two other ones help a bit too, In general idk i think Caff was just pushing super hard on them in a way that idt maf would do to another maf, especially since wagons hadn't started yet. To be fair i wouldn't say she's a townlean as of yet, but probably more in the 50/50 department in my book
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where i disagree is that i dont think caff was pushing super hard on them and its pressure they could (and did) easily skate past
 
I very much like Celever's breakdown of the OM wagon. Re: #1,152, I'll look more into that when I can. Though going backwards through Vizh's posts is going to be a pain.

Looking at the vote tally, I'm fine with the idea I saw floating around about 1 scum + CB on the OM wagon, 1 off of it theory.
On OM Wagon: Schia, Psy, CB, LS, Vizh.
Correct Votes: Thunder, realiti, M24, Me, Celever
Off: Laurel, HH, OM

So, the questions I have (before going back to page 32 and before) are... who would be the second scum on the OM wagon, and who would be the one off of it? Part of me was sus of Schia until that chart, in principle it's really helpful for interaction reads. I was also sus of LS until that post I previously mentioned. Leaves Psy and Vizh. ... I'm already planning a look at Vizh later, though Psy seems to be the same as last game (and I can't imagine mafia buddies would tolerate him being so blatantly out-there, especially when he was doing so well first half of day 1.)
Mild sus on Vizh until I can review his posts wrt the time window of voting Day 1.

On the Correct Votes and Off Both Wagons... Thunder is conftown... OM being afk at deadline feels like carelessness and mildly townie... Celever's post convinced me to be a Serious Vote on CB, and Celever was as well. I may wish to look more at realiti and M24 later. Laurel troll voted self and all that so I'm not that sus since he could have flipped the vote. OM was pushed as a counter-wagon, so I think he's relatively clear... leaves HH as an unknonw to me.
OM, realiti, and M24 are on my to-look-at list for now.

And, Psy, could you please stop provoking Celever? He's about as clear as can be in this type of game right now.
 
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