NOC eli loves matrices game thread [Game Over, Town Win!]

Psypsypsypsypsythe said:
schias point is that my voting on caff throughout the phase is a big part of what kept him in contention as a target
Click to expand...
Yeah I feel like it’s genuinely very possible that it was intended to just be a soft bus, but then they actually hopped onto Caff. I’m pretty sure you were on Caff until M24 voted Caff, and then like a page later you switch off. You get back on later for like 2 messages and then leave again but I don’t think that’s changes the point.
 
Wow it's striking how few posts there are when Psy and I don't bicker lol

Schia's posts were good. Honestly there is a decent likelihood we should simply Psy -> Schia in the next 2 days and the order doesn't matter that much because even though Psy is optimal wagonomically, they have enough scumbud equity with one another (independent of the wagonomics tbh) that either one of their flips won't provide a massive amount of information on the other slot. At this point, a key difference though is that if we do vote them out sequentially then Schia will help us solve the game much more than Psy will. If Schia is town, their work getting greenflipped is rather useful actually, because we know to put stock in it. Maximising the amount of time town!Schia can help us despite a bad D1 is just a good idea, and Schia doesn't endgame regardless so.

Maybe we'll get cold feet on Schia D3 though. The menial scumbud equity is primarily from Psy's interactions with Schia and not the inverse. The main thing that links Schia to Psy is just the scumbud equity chart being less insightful or careful as far as Psy is concerned yet Schia being confident enough in those cells to say they equivocally don't want to vote Psy out today, at the start of the day at that. Pretty much all the rest of the equity is Psy -> Schia, and the likeliest player organisation game theory-wise is still one more wolf on OM one wolf off of it, so :mehowth:
 
Psypsypsypsypsythe said:
make no mistake btw that celevers read on me, whether he realizes it or not, actually primarily stems from meta. he doesnt know what to do with me because im not acting like how i was in the previous games we played together. its no coincidence that hes one of the only people who didnt play in cool weapon and is the one having the strongest reaction. really, if you put him into that game he'd fit right in with everyone else. hes not going to agree with me on this, but i believe this is the core of why celever either is misreading me or believes im an easy misvote target this game and again its probably just subconscious

realiti is targeting me because hes scum
Click to expand...
The reason we should vote you out isn't because of your behaviour or style, it is because of game theory. I hardly remember how you played in previous games. Yes it is a departure, because I suspect I will remember how you played this game 8 months from now (though with me who knows), but not a single thing I have said to you as a reason you are mafia is related to your meta. Subconscious argument does not work, because game theory, by design, supersedes meta.

Like I voted out Caff because of the game theory behind the wagon dynamics, as I explained at EoD. Flashwagon with a meta activity case, with 2/4 votes being irrelevant to the case itself (one being pro-Caff and the other being a similar angle on wagon dynamics except this was read-based wagon dynamics) should not have been as successful in garnering votes as it was, and Caff as a slot did not warrant a fairly shoddy flashwagon with poor justification. Reads played a minor role, in that I didn't actively townread Caff and it was a very small vibes-based scumlean at best on him that was about 5 mins old in my brain. But game theory was the actual determinate of my vote.

Basically, meta reading and game theory are two different language categories so the subconscious of one doesn't really apply to the other one. I haven't actually meta read anyone this game, if I had read Caff just on meta he would still be here because he did post on-meta, I just don't view that as valuable in forming a read.
 
Vizh said:
Celever did you ever respond to this question?
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think he does. I don't think he votes for Schia at end of day if Schia has a reasonable chance of being voted out, and instead tries to flashwagon again. This would be precedented in this game: Psy has stated he was thinking of flashwagoning either Schia or OM, then Schia voted for OM and Psy put all the eggs in that basket. He already trumps his own reads wrt Schia because of Schia's extremely convincing checks notes meta-based activity tell taking Schia at their word on OM's meta.
 
Vizh said:
Also why do Schia’s posts feel so good to you?
Click to expand...
Schia is the main player doing grander game theory-based analysis. This is useful content to be provided, especially if they ever get greenflipped. If they get redflipped it's not so useful :P

Note I said Schia's posts are good, not towny. I think they're reasonably NAI, though Actually Trying To Solve The Game is anti-mafia win condition so there is a level of inherent towniness from a game theory point of view.
 
I guess I just don’t see the game theory aspect of it? The most solving part of it is when they’re talking about you and Psy, but I think their reasoning is fundamentally flawed, and it’s not that big of a stretch to assume they just want to keep Psy around to distract from them (or because they’re buddies).
 
Vizh said:
I guess I just don’t see the game theory aspect of it? The most solving part of it is when they’re talking about you and Psy, but I think their reasoning is fundamentally flawed, and it’s not that big of a stretch to assume they just want to keep Psy around to distract from them (or because they’re buddies).
Click to expand...
I mean the connection / scumbud equity chart is game theory. Hypothetically, if town wanted to, we could work together on our analysis (not reads, analysis) to create an objective chart. Schia hasn't been here as much today yet, but they are definitely participating in game theory much more than most.

#1,319 is also analysis rather than reads, and analysis that stands up to scrutiny pretty well.
 
Schiavetto said:
idt either's D1 stuff with Caff is exculpating (or any of the swatches for that matter) but i think if we're thinking in terms of triage they don't get us as far/not slots i'd take as points of departure

i think cel's stuff coming into today is pretty fucking villagery & his approach on mine and psy's slots is probably the most solution-oriented in the thread. idt psy is a non-starter but he also spent a lot of D1 actively calling to light issues with Caff's posting along w/ the stuff directed at Vizh/Cel, and there was voting power put behind it. The timing's something to consider - Caff was one of the lead wagons 6-7hrs out from phase end & psy was one of the folks keeping him over. Psy unvotes and jumps to Vizh in a move that goes along w/ the Caff/Psy S/S world that Cel is arguing as a possibility & the timing on the OM stuff does have some wagoneering elements to it, but reading with the top of the phase in mind, by my reading it's just a bunch of softbussing from psy-to-Caff for p much no reason? like the Psy/Caff S/S world doesn't read as a Caff-was-outed situation, it reads as a wolves-are-shitposting situation and I don't feel like entertaining that headache atm
Click to expand...
I think this can be foiled slightly with the fact that not a single bit of interaction between Psy and Caff actually made it likelier for Caff to be voted out yesterday though. If they're S/S, then on paper it was a bunch of soft-bussing, at its extreme it was shitposting, in reality I think it was likely just both of them trying to play up their deranged metas and using each other to do so. For most of D1 Psy was a venus flytrap, chomping down on anything that got too close to him with great disregard for what that object actually was. The only way for Caff to post with a Psy scumbud was to get bussed by him a bunch, and Caff treated Psy as a town!Caff would, which is to largely disregard the legitimacy of any of Psy's actions or votes wrt him.

Bearing in mind that Caff dying D1 was rather exceptional, in the sense that TBZ and realiti were throwaways, M24 jumped on fairly close to deadline and didn't try to convince others to jump on their either. Especially if you are town (because I think you would have identified the problem sooner than either of them, or even any other player in the game), I genuinely don't think Caff expected to die yesterday until Nuxl confirmed that ties are broken by the first to hit the required number of votes. Salamence posited that they felt Caff began panicking more when Nuxl confirmed that on a reread, and Psy basically entered full-on defence of Caff mode at that point. Don't forget Psy actively tried to convince Salamence to vote for OM when Salamence asked about it.

The optics of Psy doing his best to support the flashwagon while not once actually speaking about Caff's alignment also isn't good, and feels like an oversight on the part of Psy or Caff. It just reads as "I don't want to buddy Caff but I also can't let him die".
 
Celever said:
analysis that stands up to scrutiny pretty well.
Click to expand...
Celever said:
I think this can be foiled slightly with the fact that not a single bit of interaction between Psy and Caff actually made it likelier for Caff to be voted out yesterday though. If they're S/S, then on paper it was a bunch of soft-bussing, at its extreme it was shitposting, in reality I think it was likely just both of them trying to play up their deranged metas and using each other to do so. For most of D1 Psy was a venus flytrap, chomping down on anything that got too close to him with great disregard for what that object actually was. The only way for Caff to post with a Psy scumbud was to get bussed by him a bunch, and Caff treated Psy as a town!Caff would, which is to largely disregard the legitimacy of any of Psy's actions or votes wrt him.

Bearing in mind that Caff dying D1 was rather exceptional, in the sense that TBZ and realiti were throwaways, M24 jumped on fairly close to deadline and didn't try to convince others to jump on their either. Especially if you are town (because I think you would have identified the problem sooner than either of them, or even any other player in the game), I genuinely don't think Caff expected to die yesterday until Nuxl confirmed that ties are broken by the first to hit the required number of votes. Salamence posited that they felt Caff began panicking more when Nuxl confirmed that on a reread, and Psy basically entered full-on defence of Caff mode at that point. Don't forget Psy actively tried to convince Salamence to vote for OM when Salamence asked about it.

The optics of Psy doing his best to support the flashwagon while not once actually speaking about Caff's alignment also isn't good, and feels like an oversight on the part of Psy or Caff. It just reads as "I don't want to buddy Caff but I also can't let him die".
Click to expand...
This feels kinda dissonancy to me? Unless you meant scrutiny in a different way I guess?
 
Tbh i wouldn't read too much into how i voted for Caff, it was definitely a throwaway vote that wasn't meant to continue a bandwagon (iirc i don't think i even knew there were more votes on him). Obviously the Caff wagon ended up happening, Aura Guardian and Celever are the main ones that caused it to happen, especially since they were both around at EoD, and could've fairly easily switched without real need for explanation if need be.


Psypsypsypsypsythe you might have to explain to me your read on realiti, do you really think they would've just forgotten to remove their vote on a fellow maf up until deadline?
 
M24 said:
Psypsypsypsypsythe you might have to explain to me your read on realiti, do you really think they would've just forgotten to remove their vote on a fellow maf up until deadline?
Click to expand...
I want to say Celever pointed this out already but let’s say realiti tossed the vote on Caff to soft bus, and then comes back after Caff already has 4/5 votes, it’s much harder for them to flip away without drawing any unwanted attention (easier to just bus them and claim afk).
 
Vizh said:
I want to say Celever pointed this out already but let’s say realiti tossed the vote on Caff to soft bus, and then comes back after Caff already has 4/5 votes, it’s much harder for them to flip away without drawing any unwanted attention (easier to just bus them and claim afk).
Click to expand...

That makes sense, they prob said that at one point, but I ain't rereading all that
 
M24 said:
Tbh i wouldn't read too much into how i voted for Caff, it was definitely a throwaway vote that wasn't meant to continue a bandwagon (iirc i don't think i even knew there were more votes on him). Obviously the Caff wagon ended up happening, Aura Guardian and Celever are the main ones that caused it to happen, especially since they were both around at EoD, and could've fairly easily switched without real need for explanation if need be.


Psypsypsypsypsythe you might have to explain to me your read on realiti, do you really think they would've just forgotten to remove their vote on a fellow maf up until deadline?
Click to expand...
Thank you being open with us M24. We regret to inform you we must dock your town pay's wages for today in light of this new information.

...no but fr you did accidentally cause Caff to leave, AG and I only took a look at him because of the realisation that "either Caff dies today or a flashwagon does, so maybe we should actually think about Caff for the first time this game". Your vote was crucial to that :boi:

So you caused it to happen, intention notwithstanding :P
 
Vizh said:
This feels kinda dissonancy to me? Unless you meant scrutiny in a different way I guess?
Click to expand...
Schia's post is coherent it just misses out certain things. New information that wasn't considered (Psy not talking about Caff at all once he voted for OM), etc.. It's still game theory and analytical, someone just pointed out that the google spreadsheet had a sheet 2 button down the bottom
 
M24 can you please detail exactly why Psy isn't in your possible votes for today, and why Schia is. Not necessarily as a dichotomy, though they are dichotomised slightly be the wagon outside of that (your analysis just doesn't necessarily have to go into it much)
 
Update on my current read list

M24 said:
Town (for now):
TBZ (voted Caff)
realiti (voted Caff)
Aura Guardian (voted Caff)
Celever (voted Caff)
OM (voted on by Caff, and assumedly at least 1 more maf, feel like their odds of being maf are quite low since I feel like Caff would've been fine offering himself over another maf. Additionally, being super inactive isn't really a maf trait)

Townlean:
Vizh


50/50:
Laurel
HydrogenHydreigon


Scumlean:
One of Psy or Schia
Lady Salamence

dead lmao:
Caff - Maf 1
Click to expand...


Town:
TBZ - VT (dead)

Celever - at this point I'm pretty convinced they're just townie, being the final wagon vote for Caff is pretty important and they've been actively trying to analyse the game well.


Townlean:
Aura Guardian - While a lot less active, i feel like they generally try to contribute well, additionally was one of the final two on the caff wagon
Schiavetto - My opinions on them have improved a lot since the beginning of d2, the allignment chart shows they're at least trying to solve the game. Additionally just not as confident in my initial reading of the "first two to start the OM wagon" idea.
OM - Target of the flash wagon, generally good vibes even if inactive, feel fine about them
psy - While obnoxious, i still feel generally good about them

50/50:
LS - idk at this point, she seemed like she was putting a good amount of effort in, but also got scumread by a few people, probably a 60/40 kinda split for me
Hydrogen - i just haven't seen them talk enough
Laurel - i have no clue what they are


Scumlean:
Vizh - kind of hard to explain this one, but I feel like they've been acting a bit more desperate? iirc someone mentionned them coming to Caff's aid after he started panicking
realiti - realiti makes the most sense to me as a maf out of the Caff D1 wagon

Mafia:
Caff - Maf 1 (dead)
 
Celever said:
M24 can you please detail exactly why Psy isn't in your possible votes for today, and why Schia is. Not necessarily as a dichotomy, though they are dichotomised slightly be the wagon outside of that (your analysis just doesn't necessarily have to go into it much)
Click to expand...

Yeah, imo it's a lot more likely that one maf is one of Vizh/LS than Schia/psy
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top