NOC Werewolf Mafia - Game Over: Mafia Wins!

i heavily scumread fk and mc. instead of earnestly engaging with anything i have to say about either of them, they divert by making dismissive remarks about me being dumb and crazy and ignore the fact that i am literally saying things of value and explaining why i think fk in particular is scum, but its easier to dodge the obligation to respond when youre saying that my reasoning is just so terrible and out there that you cant even bear to respond to it, which isnt true. this read is cemented by the buddying interaction they just had at the start of the day which i can go quote
 
Spiderz I’m still scrolling back but objectively you still look the worst out of everyone here from end of day

how have your reads progressed today? have you chnaged/updated anything from previous day based on new information from what happened at eod?
 
Psypsypsypsypsythe

I will explain to you why i (and firekitten) do not like the way you are currently trying to see the game. Note that i do not view you negatively as a player or a person, i think you have good reads and intentions, but you seem confused as to why people aren't listening to you and dismissing you as "insane" and I am explaining (at least from my PoV) why I think is the case. I am trying to help you and it is up to you on whether you want to listen to what I am saying. This might seem a bit blunt but I believe that it is the best way of trying to get my point through.

Have you heard of WIFOM? According to MafiaWiki, it refers to "the dilemma that arises from trying to predict whether someone has made an optimal but expected choice, or a suboptimal but unexpected one." Note that there are only two choices.

It's important to note that these two choices do not have an equal likelihood of being made and are never 50/50. One is always more likely than the other, and part of playing mafia is determining which is more likely, and most of the time there is a logical reason behind them. For example, I townread Nuxl because he was in his town meta and displayed behavior that was very unlikely to be mafia (pretty logical imo), maybe 5% chance he was scum from my PoV. Sure, he COULD have been mafia but it was a high chance he was town. As a result, I did not feel the need to use my time to analyze the worlds where he was scum on Day 1, instead using my precious brainpower to focus on other things in the game. And bam, he flipped town, so good thing I didn't clog the thread analyzing how he could have been scum.

See, the thing is psy, you're considering all the possibilities in the game for every single player to be scum and maybe that makes you think that you're doing careful analysis that everybody is overlooking, but the truth is that some people, based on their behavior, are just more likely to be town than others (see: Nuxl). Yes, we can always re-analyze later, but when there are just so many players in the game, trying to overanalyze even the towniest of players and finding the small amount of worlds where they are scum can:

a) waste your time (as nobody will vote them and it clogs the thread, so what is even the point)
b) piss off those players (because they are most likely town trying to vote mafia and have to deal with bullshit. and the more people you scumread the more people you piss off)
c) causes chaos in the thread (making it hard for town to find each other and easier for mafia to cause disruption)
d) oftentimes just make you flat out wrong (self-explanatory)

Obviously, if you truly do believe in something then sure, go ahead and push it, but being contrarian for the sake of "analysis" and trying to craft these little worlds in your head that match your worldview ultimately does not help anybody. Developing townreads are just as important as developing scumreads for many reasons.
 
I personally think Spiderz probably looks the worst off the end of day. They spent time agreeing with my push on Tommy and then when it came time for EOD they did a U-Turn and started pushing me (one of the people suspecting them the most) and started to defend tommy for ??? reasons

I get I was wrong, and I apologize for being wrong, but also when you look at the end of day I think they knew tommy was going to flip town. Most of their reasoning for town reading tommy wasn’t even due to their posts lmao at eod
I'd agree that Spiderz spews a lot more maf in my book today than yesterday
i disliked this. it feels like fk is powerwolfing with mc and trying to set up a spiderz misflip
 
i disliked this. it feels like fk is powerwolfing with mc and trying to set up a spiderz misflip
You are malding because I am loud with my reads and that is why you are suspecting me. I personally believe that I have just reasons to suspect Spiderz. I’ve seen town countless time accuse people of powerwolfing without any flips. The best thing to do is to not accuse the players of power wolfing and try to walk through their reasoning to see if it makes sense. Do you disagree with anything I have said?
 
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