NOC Smogon Mafia Mafia (Won by the Mafia)

So now let me see the wagon...
...pulsar's not on the list I made.
Most recent thing she's got on AG is a day one implied scumread at #894...
Screenshot_20231103_205657_Sheets.jpg

I guess it makes some sense but also doesn't feel elaborated on based on what I'm seeing here...
Weird.
 
ImaginaryNeon said:
Yeah I do find that weird. Doesn't feel like it's full of people who just haven't been around since and as far as I can tell the only people who have scumreads (or at least reads listed as red on my spreadsheet) on AG that haven't been retracted in some form are (based mainly on my sheet):

Celever: #1174, lists AG as a good vote option; later theorizes the possibility of scum mayor AG in #1492 (there's a few of these theory-based ones ftr)
tigershark: #1464, lists a possible scumteam containing AG
Sam: #1253, implies scum AG; goes on to scumread AG in #1421
realiti: #1490, agrees with possibility of AG scum, but questions it due to thoughts that it would require me to be scum too
Zippy: #1172, says we "should sort" AG and pulsar
skipper: 1291, reads Me and AG as scumbuds with View attachment 567777

So it might not be as farfetched as it seems, but the amount of these now that I've looked at them doesn't quite sit right with me.
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Oh yeah also ftr this was only accounting for D2 shit because EoD1 was a mess that spilled onto my slightly after SoD2.
 
Hey I'm back after a long evening out and I still have some stuff to do before I go to bed. But basically I've got a Magic tournament tomorrow which means sporadic wait times to read and post a little between rounds, probably not a lot of dumpster diving through the thread.

I will try to get an updated readslist on everyone out before I go to bed but if I don't I will do have some time in the car in the morning.
 
Blazade said:
Hey I'm back after a long evening out and I still have some stuff to do before I go to bed. But basically I've got a Magic tournament tomorrow which means sporadic wait times to read and post a little between rounds, probably not a lot of dumpster diving through the thread.

I will try to get an updated readslist on everyone out before I go to bed but if I don't I will do have some time in the car in the morning.
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ooh what format/deck you playing
 
I'm jamming Yawgmoth in Modern, pulsar.

People who I think are probably not mafia for one reason or another in no particular order:

-Neon. Role unlikely to be scum, he's not been acting like scum, I basically never vote this.

-pulsar. I think the wagons on her were bad, her subconscious perspective impluses were from a town perspective, like being afraid to die at night and grumbling about getting roleblocked. It's conceivable this is a scumgame because some of this stuff is replicable but I think it's unlikely.

-Ehmcee. Idk, this vig claim makes absolutely no sense from a scum perspective it just draws too much attention to yourself for literally no reason. It could be 3p with some kind of weird kill quest? It could be a lie or a troll? I've just never seen him pull this kind of stunt before.

-Aura Guardian. From a mechanical perspective the role is null because limited mayor is weird and there may even be more stuff we haven't been told yet *roll eyes* but from a soul read reaction perspective I really think AG thought he had legitimately cleared himself, in a way that only works if you really are clear and really do think you're confirmed.

-Tigershark. Seems like uncoached/uncoordinated posting. Is a little bit asking the thread what to do but it's a little.understandable and better than asking scum what to do.

People who I literally can't even:

-Zippy. I know you're going through some stuff and I'm trying to read and legitimately understand the things you're saying but there is a lot of open trolling going on here and I only have so much patience for it. Like I'm actually listening to you and giving you credit, so give me a chance to hear your real reads and make my own decisions about them.

-Skipper. Essentially entirely useless slot, whatever reads I've seen I can't really engage with.

-fairy. I'm going to be honest I've never had an easy time reading you when spectating games and that hasn't changed here.

-HydrogenHydreigon. I literally don't know what a scumgame from you looks like.

That leaves:

-Celever. Had a strong opening and hasn't given me any tip offs for a scumgame but also presence has dropped off since I started mechanics. Fair enough, but I think the point of my math post were that there are a lot of scumhunting/subjective things that matter for the math and it's still important to argue them. I think if he was scumbuddies with Rostam I'd know by now and I think if he was scum and Rostam is town I'd know.

-Sam. Sam scumgames are very slightly less active and village leadery than his towngames but it's been a few years, we're both busier, and his leadery ways have a bit less gravitas among the uninitiated than they used to so it's a bit of a wash. I'd like to think that what's been going on represents a solvey towngame from him especially given how he's interacted with the parts of the thread he hasn't read, but what that essentially means is that a Sam scumgame would be a less active and mastermindey one, he'd be laid back and trying to emulate his towngame. What does scum Sam accomplish by going gung ho on AG? I'm not sure.

-Realiti. Realiti is also someone I found very hard to read while spectating. I found a lot of the things he said about me to be ridiculous this game, like scum building a bunk case, but unlike scum building a bunk case he actually asks ME about my own inconsistencies and lets me talk instead of just driving the wedge in and hammering the vote and talking to other people about me. Thread entry today felt like a towntell, forced or not. But the townreads have to stop somewhere so it's easy to doubt my gut.

-Rostam I've gone over today, on the scummier side of the remaining players after a lot of people have spewed over the last day and a half, hammered home by the imo likely Jamont martyr.
 
Now I'm gonna close Smogon, I'm already getting less than 6 hours and I need to decompress a bit. Hopefully there aren't too many things to deal with tomorrow but if anyone needs to ask me something ping me and I will get to it eventually.
 
Blazade said:
-Sam. Sam scumgames are very slightly less active and village leadery than his towngames but it's been a few years, we're both busier, and his leadery ways have a bit less gravitas among the uninitiated than they used to so it's a bit of a wash. I'd like to think that what's been going on represents a solvey towngame from him especially given how he's interacted with the parts of the thread he hasn't read, but what that essentially means is that a Sam scumgame would be a less active and mastermindey one, he'd be laid back and trying to emulate his towngame. What does scum Sam accomplish by going gung ho on AG? I'm not sure.
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I took a closer look at Sam. Not random since he's from the old days and isn't Celever. Some after Celever, nudging a fairy and Blazade. I strongly disagreed with his d1 top 4 vote list, though I suppose I could be talked into a fairy. Just noticed JALMONT was on that list. Strange turn on me vs pulsar = meh to would vote pulsar if I'm clean. Then voted skipper, which I sorta-agreed with at the time (he was on my list, but isn't now), hopped off for thinking the wagon was unclean. Some incorrect interpretations of my stuff, but I'm in no position to throw stones there. Some interactions with a fairy that looked like suspicious behavior on a fairy's part (to me, anyway). Switching to Rostam and wants to look into him.

I think Sam was wrong townie for a chunk of D1. If he flips sccum, then I want a closer look at Celever and a fairy. In the now, I think I'm down to look more at Rostam.
 
Rostam analysis:
post 124 includes a pulsar quote that feels off. 1/5 of hitting scum? 11v3v1 = 4/15 is approx 1/4 chance. If pulsar is town and assuming not self, that's 4/14, well over 1/5. If scum spewing, 3/14 is much closer to 1/5 chance. Wanting to look closer at pulsar eventually.
Interesting initial readslist 225. If he turns up dead, I want to look at Celever.
Anti-pulsar/Celever/skip

Mostly a null read, alas.
________________________

A bit concerned since I doubt either wagon was pure. It was skip/pulsar, right? IMO those two are both townleans now for D1 wagons.
 
Some mistakes from a previous game, that I exploited: not looking at the dead guy's reads.
Surprised at a pulsar claim. Anti-pulsar, mildly anti-Celever.
Rostam most suspicious, then votes Ehmcee, then pulsar. Anti-Celever again. Votes skip, then unvotes

Since only one death (p46), and there's a wolf: if no one claims BPV popped or the like, there's still a chance doctor/bodyguard or jailkeep got things right. But I'd really like to be sus of Rostam, then pulsar/Celever, then Ehmcee, then skip.

Except I don't think either wagon was pure, so barring deepwolfing this early (I know, I'm in no position to throw stones given my record), I'm inclined for Rostam > Pulsar > Ehmcee.

Just checked the votecount; Rostam/Pulsar tie since I'm not using my extra vote at this time. I'm on pulsar. I want Rostam pressured, but I don't want to risk hammer.

Unvote
 
Aura Guardian said:
Just checked the votecount; Rostam/Pulsar tie since I'm not using my extra vote at this time. I'm on pulsar. I want Rostam pressured, but I don't want to risk hammer.

Unvote
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I won’t hammer even with clear majority unless everyone on the wagon indicates clearly no intention to change. With this many people alive I highly doubt that would happen. Feel free to vote without worrying about hammer.
 
UncleSam said:
Also why even use one there unless it is to save someone, and why would village AG be desperate to save either pulsar or skipper to the point where he uses a limited-resource extra vote on a day 1 50/50 rand that he didn’t even push much for?
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I have no idea how UncleSam keeps getting away with this. This is one of at least three times where he has made a read based on incorrect information, been immediately corrected, and not updated his read based on the correction; e.g., he townread Neon for making a sheet (he always makes sheets), scumread fairy for not giving any reads (she did give reads), and now he scumreads AG for activating mayor when he was not in danger of being voted (he was). The malicious interpretation is that he is making reads that he doesn’t have to stand by because they are based on faulty premises. Do you still scumread fairy/AG?
 
I still think Pulsar has high 3p equity and is a high-information vote given her numerous interactions with other players. I’m not going to engage with the flavor text angle shot on principle, though I’d expect the messages to be more boilerplate myself (e.g., ”Your action has been blocked”). And of course there is the 3p tracker possibility.
 
I’ll leave it to realiti to brainstorm how I could have defended myself less defensively while still, well, defending. It’s admittedly demoralizing to open the thread to long attacks from several respected players, so I won’t deny that my emotions may have seeped into my d2 messages. I am being framed after all.
 
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