NOC Smogon Mafia Mafia (Won by the Mafia)

Aura Guardian said:
Looking at the quote, looks like Sam brought up massclaim, but Celever wants to move up the timetable? I'm a bit leery of that given my sus on Celever.
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Blazade asked Sam what his thoughts on massclaim are saying he’d like to do it, Sam said no, I put my two cents in and said yeah
 
HydrogenHydreigon said:
Gm everybody
yes I fucked up hard in failing to read that rostam flipped scum while making reads Idon’t need several replies telling me this again-
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Hey Hydro,

Hope this finds you well.

I just wanted to catch up after seeing your posts made this morning. In them, you theorised mafia teams of 3 people, none of whom were Rostam! Please stay up to date on all correspondence, as prior documents have already proven that Rostam is in the mafia.

This error will be included in your annual report.

Best wishes,
Celever
 
Celever said:
Hey Hydro,

Hope this finds you well.

I just wanted to catch up after seeing your posts made this morning. In them, you theorised mafia teams of 3 people, none of whom were Rostam! Please stay up to date on all correspondence, as prior documents have already proven that Rostam is in the mafia.

This error will be included in your annual report.

Best wishes,
Celever
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if i vote you today im going to use this as my reasoning and etch it onto your tombstone
 
Aura Guardian said:
Because Celever's on my suspect list. Especially with that 2161 post suggesting Ehmcee (if telling the truth) should shoot me by Celever effectively saying he'd have done so if he could.
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To be fair I also explicitly said if I were vig I’d shoot you in a post to Ehmcee during EoD1 lol. The post you’re referring to was genuine analysis of town dynamics my personal feelings weren’t involved in it really
 
UncleSam said:
Let me think about this more but first impression is we have enough to go off of from the D2 vote that keeping our role power secret for a bit longer is optimal.

I think by tomorrow I’m more likely to lean towards rather than against massclaim, though. And I don’t think it’s out of the question for today either, just my gut reaction says there is power in having the village roles be unknown / not letting the scum play around them.

Out of the Pulsar voters, who do you think is most / least likely scum Blazade? (Also anyone else can answer this). I haven’t had time to iso anyone but off the top of my head Celever looks awful in retrospect and Ehmcee’s claim is bothering me due to the lack of kills and the flavor.

Celever where you at buddy. Who do you wanna vote / push today?
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See my biggest fear this game is that in a couple cycles we're going to have inactive town who aren't reading the thread or aren't as good at mechanics solving.

But our protective roles aren't out yet, and there may be info roles beyond pulsar who haven't come clean, so I can agree that it makes sense to wait.

There are 11 non-me people, 2 mafia, 1 3p:

I townlean: Fairy, AG, HH, Ehmcee, Neon, Realiti, tigershark, Sam

Most of these people have either dumbtelled/towntelled or been really good at faking it. They lack an agenda, appear uncoordinated with others, or did something that seems inexplicable to me from a scum perspective. AG has 3p equity, Realiti could have been scum defending pulsar, Fairy is hard to read, tigershark is inactive, there are small wrinkles here. But the list is largely solid.

What's left is Celever, Skipper, Zippy

Celever I have active reason to believe could be scum, Skipper is only vindicated by being on the end of a push started by Rostam (that he eventually went off of) but otherwise difficult to place as town by their behavior, Zippy is scum if Celever is town and has a point about his prior scumgame.

Basically, I think I'm probably wrong about one of my townleans, probably right about at least one of the scumreads, and will require mechanics to get the 3p a large percentage of the time.
 
Blazade said:
See my biggest fear this game is that in a couple cycles we're going to have inactive town who aren't reading the thread or aren't as good at mechanics solving.

But our protective roles aren't out yet, and there may be info roles beyond pulsar who haven't come clean, so I can agree that it makes sense to wait.

There are 11 non-me people, 2 mafia, 1 3p:

I townlean: Fairy, AG, HH, Ehmcee, Neon, Realiti, tigershark, Sam

Most of these people have either dumbtelled/towntelled or been really good at faking it. They lack an agenda, appear uncoordinated with others, or did something that seems inexplicable to me from a scum perspective. AG has 3p equity, Realiti could have been scum defending pulsar, Fairy is hard to read, tigershark is inactive, there are small wrinkles here. But the list is largely solid.

What's left is Celever, Skipper, Zippy

Celever I have active reason to believe could be scum, Skipper is only vindicated by being on the end of a push started by Rostam (that he eventually went off of) but otherwise difficult to place as town by their behavior, Zippy is scum if Celever is town and has a point about his prior scumgame.

Basically, I think I'm probably wrong about one of my townleans, probably right about at least one of the scumreads, and will require mechanics to get the 3p a large percentage of the time.
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Of your town list I mostly agree, though I would put it more as:
Town core: myself, Blazade, Neon, tigershark, AG
- I think it is more or less 100% this list contains zero mafia. 3p is harder to say and I agree with Blazade that we will probably need massclaim to help solve for that, but these are the people I'm largely going to look to in terms of who to vote with. Blazade and Neon are cleaner than the other two (tigershark / AG) and I think both have very little 3p equity, on top of being almost certainly not mafia. I could see AG being 3p with a special voting-related power, but it's a bit tinfoily for me at this stage and I do think Occam's razor would say AG is probably just town.

Lean town: Fairy, Ehmcee
- I've talked about these two enough that I don't need to repeat my lingering concerns with them. I'm not voting for either of these two today unless there's new information coming to light or someone I absolutely trust in the list above makes a very compelling argument. So yeah, not town core, but they're definitely not good vote options today.

Others: Skipper, Zippy, Celever, Realiti
- I tend to agree with Blazade that I've liked Realiti's posts and I almost think it'd be too blatant to defend Rostam the way he did yesterday. Plus it'd bruise my ego because I have so consistently townread him. However, I just don't think he belongs in the town list simply due to how suspect his Day 2 was in retrospect. I'd prefer to vote someone else from this list, however.

I also would tend not to push for a Celever vote today simply because A. Celever is still contributing so actively, B. the same argument for it being too brazen for Realiti to just push against the Rostam vote all day applies to Celever as well, and C. I think that Skipper / Zippy have stronger ties to Rostam (see below). Also, I think there is upside in keeping him around for a mass claim tomorrow in the event he is town to help analyze things, while there's not a lot of downside in the event he is scum since I assume that scum have deadchat. imperfectluck are you able to confirm or deny whether scum (for example, Rostam) can communicate with their dead teammates for strategy purposes?

Finally, Skipper and Zippy are my preferred vote options today, with Celever >> Realiti as third and fourth choices. Both have played under the radar, buddied Rostam but not openly, and to boot if you go look at Day 1 you can see that Rostam voted on Pulsar to save Skipper. Not only that, but Zippy also voted on Pulsar to save Skipper, while Celever voted Skipper to save Pulsar. All of this sort of implies a stronger connection between Skipper - Zippy - Rostam than between Celever and any of them imo.

I think that there may be some value in having just Skipper and Zippy claim today in the event that the rest of my / Blazade's towncore agrees that they're the best choices and we would opt to vote one of them barring further evidence. TO BE CLEAR DO NOT CLAIM AS OF YET. I am only asking for opinions on this plan of action today, primarily from Blazade.

Day's been kinda quiet so I'd really like to hear from the rest of my town reads here. a fairy Ehmcee ImaginaryNeon tigershark/genius1 Aura Guardian can you all give your thoughts on this reading of the game state and of the possible vote options? Particularly Blazade's case on Celever vs. my case on Skipper - Zippy - Rostam being a potential scumteam.
 
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