NOC Charge Me Up! Mafia GAME OVER MAFIA (psy, Laurel, af) WINS!

Psypsypsypsypsythe said:
did you idle
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genuinely no

I considered it, I'm prob gonna idle at some point assuming Tommy doesn't successfully vote me out therefore making it pointless to do, cos me having self-doc the night before LYLO is optimal for sure

too much of a risk N1 though imo and was kinda hoping someone would target just to confirm I acc am commuter lol
 
Laurel said:
imperfectluck I still do think that mafia triple charged celever because it’s the only thing that makes sense to me — if you assume mathematically that each person had a 1/13 chance of receiving the vote doesn’t that put the odds of getting a 4 shot 1 / 28,561.

I think that means that the only feasible way Celever ends up with 4 shots is a conceded effort by the mafia to charge him.
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Not to come to Celever's defense or anything, because I still have my reservations and think there's a chance he's trying to pocket me, but this is faulty math.

First of all, it assumes that every person has equal odds of choosing every person, which obviously is untrue, but even if we did:

You're calculating the odds of Celever rolling 4 events out of 4, instead of 4 events out of 13. In simple terms, if Celever is equal to the number 10, you're calculating the odds to be rolling a 13-sided die 4 times and equaling 10 every time.

The actual odds would be rolling a 13-sided die 13 times, and needing at least 4 to be 10.

I kind of went crazy on the math, and imma just leave it here and hope you believe me:
1700161584534.png


Assuming it's random, it'd be closer to a 1.5% chance of someone getting at least 4 votes, which is still pretty small, but nowhere close to the number you showed.
 
i feel like most of the tommy v celever stuff passed through my brain but letting it marinate my thoughts are that tommy did better under pressure than i recall him doing in the past, i think he effectively shot down most of celevers arguments even if there were things i disagreed with here and there. but like. im not sure. i had more to say that i was just thinking about and i just forgot what it was
 
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