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NFL Thread: 2025-26 Season

So the Micah Parsons Bowl ended in a tie after I had to go to bed at a reasonable time for work this morning, huh. Can’t say I saw that coming. Me being the guy obsessed with obscure stats that I am, I’ve found myself doing research on NFL tied games before, and I would like to say “How ‘bout them Cowboys?” but this is already their second overtime game in their first four with one of them being a tie, which I believe makes them the first team since the 2018 Browns with that extremely specific distinction. As for Green Bay, this is their first overtime game of the season, and for whatever reason there is actually enough historical precedent to say that most teams that end in a tie don’t play in any other overtime games for the rest of the season. The aforementioned Browns as well as the Rams and 49ers matchups in the 2012 season were both statistical anomalies in this regard.

Now, as for the game itself. Micah did actually log a sack in this game which I really don’t know if that should count due to it not actually being a TFL, but good on sports bettors I guess. I always thought sacks only counted if it was a TFL. Both quarterbacks balled the heck out, apparently, combining for well over 600 yards and six passing touchdowns and no INTs, and Josh Jacobs also led Green Bay’s offense in both rushing a receiving yards. Apparently this was the highest scoring overtime tie game in NFL history- I want to say the previous record was 37-37- and the box score seems to back that up, at least.
 
bdt2002 said:
So the Micah Parsons Bowl ended in a tie after I had to go to bed at a reasonable time for work this morning, huh. Can’t say I saw that coming. Me being the guy obsessed with obscure stats that I am, I’ve found myself doing research on NFL tied games before, and I would like to say “How ‘bout them Cowboys?” but this is already their second overtime game in their first four with one of them being a tie, which I believe makes them the first team since the 2018 Browns with that extremely specific distinction. As for Green Bay, this is their first overtime game of the season, and for whatever reason there is actually enough historical precedent to say that most teams that end in a tie don’t play in any other overtime games for the rest of the season. The aforementioned Browns as well as the Rams and 49ers matchups in the 2012 season were both statistical anomalies in this regard.

Now, as for the game itself. Micah did actually log a sack in this game which I really don’t know if that should count due to it not actually being a TFL, but good on sports bettors I guess. I always thought sacks only counted if it was a TFL. Both quarterbacks balled the heck out, apparently, combining for well over 600 yards and six passing touchdowns and no INTs, and Josh Jacobs also led Green Bay’s offense in both rushing a receiving yards. Apparently this was the highest scoring overtime tie game in NFL history- I want to say the previous record was 37-37- and the box score seems to back that up, at least.
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scorigami baby
 
We’re four weeks into the NFL regular season now and we’ve reached the point where teams are going to start having bye weeks. This feels like a good time to do a quick check-up on how the league year is shaping out up to this point. I might do more of these later (trade deadline, Wild Card week, etc.) if you guys are interested.

Divisional Records
  1. NFC West (11-5)
  2. NFC North (9-6-1)
  3. NFC East (8-7-1)
  4. AFC West (8-8)
  5. AFC North (7-9)
  6. AFC South (7-9)
  7. AFC East (7-9)
  8. NFC South (6-10)

NFC Teams lead AFC Teams 35-29

  • Remaining Undefeated Teams: Eagles (4-0), Bills (4-0)
  • Remaining Winless Teams: Saints (0-4), Jets (0-4), Titans (0-4)

Player Stat Leaders
  • Passing Yards: Dak Prescott (1,119)
  • Rushing Yards: Johnathan Taylor (414)
  • Receiving Yards: Puka Nacua (504)
  • Tackles: Jordyn Brooks (44)
  • Sacks: Brian Burns & Byron Young (5)
  • Interceptions: Kevin Byard III & Devin Lloyd (3)

Team Stat Leaders
  • Total Offense: Cowboys (404.3 YPG)
  • Pass Offense: Cowboys (281.3 YPG)
  • Rush Offense: Bills (163.5 YPG)
  • Total Defense: Browns (222.5 YPG)
  • Sacks: Broncos (15)
  • Turnovers: Jaguars (+9)

bdt2002’s Top Teams: Bills, Eagles, 49ers, Lions, Seahawks, Colts, Chargers
 
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dex said:
I’m fairly confident this is the worst the AFC North has ever been
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Here’s some trivia for you: since the 2002 realignment, the AFC North has had none of the following:

  • A team win the division three or more consecutive seasons- the last to do it were the Steelers in the late ‘90s
  • A season where the Ravens and the Steelers finished as the bottom two teams (conversely, the Ohio teams have never combined for first and second place)
  • The Steelers finishing in last place- as of 2023-24 they are the only remaining team with this distinction
 
Watching Mac Jones get crunched on every play made me so fucking sad, man. Kyle Shanahan destroys every good thing that happens to him. At least they won.
 
Well, that certainly could have gone better. A part of me wanted them to tie just for the fact that it would have given us temporary control of the division, but then I remembered we play Tampa Bay on Sunday anyway making this a moot point. Plus, we don’t need another tie after how the Micah Parsons Bowl wrapped up and an NFC West tie could end up backfiring on us just as easily. We’ve been the effective 8 Seed in the NFC for back to back seasons now and I’d rather not make it a third.

Real talk, though- the Rams are about where I expected them to be at this point in the season, but how the heck are the 49ers 4-1 right now? By all accounts they should be worse- their offense is severely injured, they’ve played four of their five games against teams so far with a winning record, and their point differential suggests an Expected Win Total of 2.74 through five games. Make it make sense. And Mac Jones… is he the best backup quarterback in football? For a while out there he was definitely making a case for it.
 
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And then there was one. We are now left with only one undefeated team remaining, and this is extremely significant because there is a massive historical trend going against these teams that I rarely ever see anyone talk about. Whoever the last undefeated team in the NFL is each season has only gone on to win the Super Bowl 12 out of 59 times, and it hasn’t happened at all in almost two decades. The last team to pull this off were the 2006-07 Colts. The drought notably includes the 2007-08 Patriots who went undefeated until the Super Bowl, as well as every single NFC team this century, as you have to go back to the 1999-2000 Rams to find the previous team before the Colts to win the Super Bowl after being the last undefeated team remaining.

So basically what I’m trying to say here is that history is now playing against the Buffalo Bills, though their possible push for the first ever 17-0 regular season will remain alive should they win against the Patriots. Incidentally, history also says the 2020s Bills are among the most likely to attain a perfect regular season- the Bills have previously won AFL or AFC titles and were perennial contenders in both the 1960s and 1990s, and both of the previous teams to go undefeated in the regular season during the Super Bowl era were AFC East teams (before the Chiefs last season, AFC East teams have also been the only teams to three-peat in the conference title game). The Bills also maintain the best home record in the NFL going back to last season, not losing at home since 2023. Four of their five games against 2024-25 first place opponents are also at home, with the only road game arguably being the easiest of the five at Houston.
 
Records of Bills Opponents (Excluding Games vs the Bills and Each Other)
1-3 (win over Browns)
0-2
0-3
1-4 (win over Giants)
1-2 (win over Panthers)

Combine all those and you get 3-14, the Giants' record last year.

Those 3 teams that Bills opponents beat – Browns, Giants, and Panthers – are themselves 3-10 combined. with the same game exclusion rules as before

Not only are Bills opponents winless beyond the dregs of the league (or beyond the Bills - congrats Patriots!), but the dregs of the league would be harder than the Bills' current schedule.

Also, the Bills have played 4 out of 5 games at home, only making a short trip to the Meadowlands.

The Bills may be the least tested team through 5 weeks... ever.
 
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Adeleine said:
I hesitated when you posted this initially but good lord
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Of course the Steelers have a positive record, and the Ravens are in absolute free fall. I should never have doubted the power of 9-8 Super Bowl.

You know, I thought the bottom was going to fall out for the Ravens at some point, but I didn't think it was going to be this season. Well, now you know exactly how hard this team's coaching staff is carried by Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are spiritually weak; they have no ability to bounce back when the transcendent talents on their roster don't allow them to get out to a commanding lead, and even when that does happen, they often choke anyway. As ever, it falls at the feet of the head coach. Maybe his ass will finally be fired now that he doesn't have wins to hide behind. One can dream!
 
bdt2002 said:
So basically what I’m trying to say here is that history is now playing against the Buffalo Bills, though their possible push for the first ever 17-0 regular season will remain alive should they win against the Patriots. Incidentally, history also says the 2020s Bills are among the most likely to attain a perfect regular season- the Bills have previously won AFL or AFC titles and were perennial contenders in both the 1960s and 1990s, and both of the previous teams to go undefeated in the regular season during the Super Bowl era were AFC East teams (before the Chiefs last season, AFC East teams have also been the only teams to three-peat in the conference title game). The Bills also maintain the best home record in the NFL going back to last season, not losing at home since 2023. Four of their five games against 2024-25 first place opponents are also at home, with the only road game arguably being the easiest of the five at Houston.
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Lmao I jinxed them :sphearical: big win for New England and for Drake Maye’s young career, but there’s still a lot of season left and from what I can tell Buffalo showed just enough to where I’m still not entirely worried about them though for their fans’ sake I do wish their offense and defense could finally put things together in important games simultaneously. It seems like it’s always one or the other, and they just get outplayed and force themselves into unfortunate scenarios in big games.

In other news, I’m not mad about losing to Tampa Bay at all, really, they’re looking solid when all of the pieces work together and the game was a genuine back and forth shootout for a while there. Given the injuries on defense for both teams the result of the game doesn’t surprise me too much, but as a Seahawks fan I’d rather we lose games like these that could realistically go either way than win all the games that make sense just to lose to someone like the Titans. Speaking of which, I want to send my thoughts and prayers to the Arizona sports community because that was just depressing to watch. The classic “drop the football too early before the goal line” mistake, and it ultimately cost them the game that the Cardinals looked to have control of for most of it.
 
bdt2002 said:
We’re four weeks into the NFL regular season now and we’ve reached the point where teams are going to start having bye weeks. This feels like a good time to do a quick check-up on how the league year is shaping out up to this point. I might do more of these later (trade deadline, Wild Card week, etc.) if you guys are interested.

Divisional Records
  1. NFC West (11-5)
  2. NFC North (9-6-1)
  3. NFC East (8-7-1)
  4. AFC West (8-8)
  5. AFC North (7-9)
  6. AFC South (7-9)
  7. AFC East (7-9)
  8. NFC South (6-10)

NFC Teams lead AFC Teams 35-29

  • Remaining Undefeated Teams: Eagles (4-0), Bills (4-0)
  • Remaining Winless Teams: Saints (0-4), Jets (0-4), Titans (0-4)

Player Stat Leaders
  • Passing Yards: Dak Prescott (1,119)
  • Rushing Yards: Johnathan Taylor (414)
  • Receiving Yards: Puka Nacua (504)
  • Tackles: Jordyn Brooks (44)
  • Sacks: Brian Burns & Byron Young (5)
  • Interceptions: Kevin Byard III & Devin Lloyd (3)

Team Stat Leaders
  • Total Offense: Cowboys (404.3 YPG)
  • Pass Offense: Cowboys (281.3 YPG)
  • Rush Offense: Bills (163.5 YPG)
  • Total Defense: Browns (222.5 YPG)
  • Sacks: Broncos (15)
  • Turnovers: Jaguars (+9)

bdt2002’s Top Teams: Bills, Eagles, 49ers, Lions, Seahawks, Colts, Chargers
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no more undefeated teams
 
It might be just a bit too early to say that the Eagles have fallen off again, but losing to the Giants and a core of young guys by 17 is a really bad look for this team. What’s scary about this is that the Giants actually have three wide receivers on IR including Malik Nabers and their WR2 Darius Slayton’s also injured right now, and the Giants have still won two of their last three. Sure, it was a home division game so you can never really count out an upset like that, but the Eagles offense should have played better. They were healthier, had more returning production, and I should also mention that the Giants were the worst team in the NFL in home games last season at 1-8.

Now, we’re looking at a situation where the Eagles have lost two straight after a 4-0 start and have just given up their first multiple possession game all season. All five of their previous games regardless of the winner have been one-possession games regardless of the winner and if I’m taking a look at the NFC East standings right now I honestly don’t think Philadelphia is the best team in the division anymore. The Eagles look vulnerable right now. I won’t say they look as bad as some other teams in the conference just yet but Washington has an opportunity here to take a step forward and take a share of control in the division if they can get the job done over a 2-2 Chicago Bears team at home which should be doable for them. Credit to Chicago, I still don’t think the Bears are playoff contenders or anything but save for that blowout loss to the Lions they are playing marginally better than I expected through four weeks though I would have liked to see better consistency from them.


In other NFL news, I don’t know if this will sustain through the rest of the season but I think I’m ready to say that I was also very, very wrong about the Colts. Prior to Daniel Jones’s arrival, and even then I was hesitant about both him and Anthony Richardson, I was under the impression the Colts had an opportunity to be even worse than the Titans this season, but up to this point the Colts are fourth in total offense, fourth in passing offense, second in scoring offense, and third in scoring defense claiming the best point differential in the NFL and the league’s best record through five games in conference games. I suppose a Mickey Mouse 4-1 Jaguars team could snipe them for the division lead, but unfortunately for Cardinals fans who are already going through it I trust the Colts to beat the Cardinals more than I trust the Jaguars to beat my Seahawks, though I should also mention both AFC South teams are 3-0 in home games so far and Seattle’s been one of the best road teams in the league for whatever reason during the Mike McDonald era at 9-1 since the beginning of last season.

As a Seahawks fan that also has family that lives in Jacksonville, I am very excited for this game and for the sake of those family members wouldn’t be upset with either outcome even if I’m picking Seattle to win. But really, my ultimate point of this section of the post is that I’m pleasantly surprised by the AFC South as a whole. If I’m not mistaken, Week 5 was the first week in a very long time all four teams won in the same week, and while it is true that Houston’s two wins have comes against the Titans and an absolute disgrace of a Ravens defense- seriously, what the heck happened here- those kinds of dominant wins against lower caliber teams are still the kinds of wins that can provide just enough motivation to a team that initiated 0-3 with a poor showing from the offensive line in particular. I don’t expect Houston or Tennessee to catch the other two teams at this time but the rest of the AFC South and future divisional matchups could turn into a dogfight very quickly and I’m all here for it. The AFC South has been historically bad this decade relative to, well, other divisions across other decades, already having three #1 overall picks (2020-21 Jaguars, 2024 Titans) in five seasons and only two teams making it to the divisional round, but this might be the year the AFC South can finally make some noise for the first time in the 2020s, and certainly the first since the 2021 1-Seed Titans who got first rounded anyway.
 
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I have three of them for you:
  1. I'm sick of it being every game with the defensive injuries. Football is a violent sport, and you have to expect it to an extent, but this is not normal. Once can be attributed to a streak of bad luck, but this is now two years that our entire secondary has been in the hospital, and it didn't even take the entire season this time. Twice is a pattern, and I'm sick of being pleasantly surprised when we make it through a game without getting a chunk bitten out of our defense. Just a thought: Maybe it's because they're coached to fling themselves around like missiles all the time, and they keep crashing into everything? I knew we were in trouble when I watched Kelce gain more yards after catch than he should have because a defender coming in from the secondary tried to wallop him instead of making a tackle. The defense has way less infrastructure to protect their bodies than the offense; they can't be doing this shit, as much as everyone loves the big hits.
  2. It's super awesome how the Chiefs, after being substantially penalized in their first five games, suddenly committed zero penalties the entire game once it looked like they needed a win to revive their season. I'm sure that Andy Reid just has supreme tightening powers.
  3. Brian Branch: What the fuck, dude? This defense needs you so badly, and now you've surely gone and gotten yourself suspended over nothing. Foolish! Foolish!
 
You should never get called for a false start for pointing at a jumping defender, even if he doesn't actually jump all the way into the neutral zone. You're being punished for the other team's lack of snap discipline. Absurd penalty.
 
Well, I was mad about it the whole time, but ultimately, holding the MVP frontrunner to less than ten points with that defensive unit is pretty great. Have we suffered enough losses for you yet, God?
 
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