Hello again, my friends. In a departure from my previous post- I do apologize for double posting, though- I wanted to take one last look at the league before Week 18 and the postseason both kick off (ha ha) and for this post, I wanted to really start diving into who I think could go the distance and why my current Super Bowl winner is… not necessarily my Seattle Seahawks? Wait, what?
Here’s a fun trivia fact for you. Since the 2016 season, seven of the nine Super Bowl champions have ended up being the team with the best performance across combined regular season and postseason games they were not favored to win. In sports betting this is what people usually call the underdog, but I think it goes a bit deeper than that. Long story made very… very short, championship winning teams aren’t always the best team during the regular season, and with football games being as long and as physical as they are, underdogs often have to try and come up with ways to sustain success throughout not just one, but sometimes multiple unfavorable scenarios.
Taking a look at my Seahawks, we’re 13-3 and most sources are loving our chances to at least attempt making a run, and while our team is tied for a league-best 10-2 record in games after a win, usually a good indicator that a team can win multiple games down the stretch, Seattle is only 1-2 in the few games that we have not been favored in by major betting markets, and we’re also only 2-4 after a bye week so far this decade. While our point differential and performance against the point spread are among, if not the best in the league right now, the numbers and recent history both show that postseason games and regular season success can and should be looked at separately. During the 2020s, Seattle is 0-2 in playoff games with a -14 margin of “victory” (or there lack of), and the 49ers (5-4) and the Rams (6-3) both have a winning record and more playoff games played in general. All of these factors come together to form a situation for a team that, led by a quarterback who isn’t known for his performance in big games, can and will likely only go so far relative to the teams we could end up facing in the postseason.