something something "mafia drug dealing operation" /j
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NOC Tracker Jailer Follower - Game Thread - Day 2!
- Thread starter AngryPidgeon
- Start date
I am quite a fan of the implications of Smogon Mafia AUs existing.
i seriously dont think dbd thought of that meta in the moment, slight hole in case
nope which waas why i was concerned why u only tunneled des d1
shhh you're not supposed to tell her that
Anyways, just got to page 12 and I'm kinda leaning towards Celever's side of the Cele/DBD fight just because I think he's making his points better than DBD is so for now I'll just
##Vote: Dead by Daylight
and I might update it as I continue reading.
It's surprisingly hard to muster the energy for a policy kill on a player I've never played with, believe it or not
So far neon seems to be someone you can at least actually interact with in an understandable way just very unserious
You gotta love the Miyami superposition
ok
Anyways here's my read list
I've been thinking for 4 hours on how to do this, because the information we now have is very limited. To find the mafia right now we would basically have to do a solve. So I am right now proposing three scenarios. These scenarios paint three lights on what could've happened on day 1.
Scenario One: Planned Execution
This is basically what Celever has been saying all day, Mafia had seen Des on their list of Mafia Players, and expecting how Town would lynch her quickly, they planned a Desperato. If town is going to do it someday, what if we do it today? The benefits of this would be Towncred which would hopefully last until the last day, the downsides would be one mafia member less and how quickly any role would be able to find them out, and by finding one of them out, their teammate would fall quickly.
In this scenario, the members of the town would have played it out this way. Care to say, this scenario's only important day was day 1, and so the readings will be done with only Day 1 posting
Perpetators:
Dead By Daylight: Dead By Daylight somehow convinced Des to make an actual play and accuse him of being mafia (let it be known, she couldnt even say her role properly when asked), I find this very unlikely, not because DBD would make this play, but because they wouldnt trust Des to do this.
Miyami: The main perpetrator, called for Des to be lynched Day 1 for a policy vote, got lucky and she was mafia, not much more to say than it could be a SvS scenario
Mixed Opinions:
Jalmont: No vote just helped the vote above
ShyPebble: Voted for someone with just one vote, same reason as above.
Genisu: idk if I like their posting
AFK:
AirC, Pulsar
Neon: He's also here
Pushed against the strat:
Phoopes, Celever: Pushed against the vote against Des, going after DBD instead.
Scenario Two: Mafia Clutch
After a failed attempt to try to save Des day 1, mafia has lost one of their members in an unlucky day 1. This has lead up to mafia trying to amp their towncred and developing into becoming the townleaders per say, where they're trying to salvage as much as they can, by different means.
In this scenario, the day that matters the most is actually day 2. So the arguments here will be made with day 2 posting.
Mafia:
Celever: With difference, the one who has the most weight in this scenario, with a difference of 1 page in day 1 and 4 pages in day 2, what has made him post this much? You could say that they're trying to scumread people or that in day 1 we didnt have as much info, but in this scenario they would be trying to salvage mafia by becoming the town leader.
Pulsar: From day 1 of no posting to suddenly arriving and posting a little too much, with surprisingly no suspicions of this, all Scumreads lists have placed Pulsar above scum, I really, really, dont like this. And I think its part of this scenario
Phoopes: I have to place Phoopes here, as much as I dont seem them being scum, they did help pushing the Des wagon away while posting much more than in day 1.
Mixed Opinions:
Jalmont: I really dont like his posting. But not helping turn the Des wagon away, while voting for celever puts him in the mixed opinion category.
Genisu: You wont see me putting him in townlean in this scenario either
Dead By Daylight: Yes, I am putting him here. In this scenario I am not sure that DBD can be cleared, even his Celever vs DBD play could be a SvS happening right in our faces, but for reason of him having to orchestrate everything with Celever and Des, while still being a bit unrealistic, I will place him here.
AFK:
ShyPebble, ImaginaryNeon, AirC
Town Lean:
Miyami: Pushed for Des.
Scenario Three: Total Mafia Desperation
In this scenario, Mafia has given up. With des dying day 1 and them not being that active to have been able to stop it, it has ended up on them actually giving up on the game and just going semi-afk, this scenario is actually the easiest and the hardest, due to there being more than 1 afk player, we're basically playing shots in the dark. But sooner than later, their stratagem will show up on the late game. Which is why this scenario is the easiest of the three.
Mafia:
ShyPebble, AirC, Pulsar: Were afk and werent able to stop des being voted out/didnt want to.
ImaginaryNeon: He's like trolling or whatever, the selfvote shows why.
Mixed:
Genisu: Small amounts of posting after day 1, not a lot to go by, but still trying to do some scumreads so he's trying atleast.
Jalmont: Same as above.
Town:
DBD, Celever, Miyami, Phoopes, Pulsar: Still doing consistent posting, with consistent posts and reads being made.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What could I conclude with this, in which scenario do I think we are?
This is a hard question, after these 3 scenarios, my scumread would look like this.
Townlean:
Me.
ImaginaryNeon
Mixed:
Jalmont
ShyPebble
Phoopes
Miyami
AirC
Celever
Dead By Daylight
Scumlean:
Pulsar
Genisu
And the scenario I trust the most is happening would be Scenario 2
So in favor of discovering the scenario instead of following my own opinion, my vote would be
##vote: Celever
I don't think I'm understanding you Peum
What exactly is your "solve" in each scenario? A "solve" would constitute definitively pointing out "these are the two players who would be mafia" in each of your scenarios. However the only one in which you kind of do that is scenario one (DBD and Miyami). In scenario two you have three players as mafia (me, Celever, and pulsar), and in scenario three you have ShyPebble, AirC, pulsar, and Neon all as mafia. I'd like to hear your actual "solves" in these scenarios to get a better idea of where your head's at.
I also question how your two biggest scumleans are pulsar and genisu, and then you don't vote for either of them lol. Even in the scenario that you think is "most likely" (scenario two), you've singled out pulsar as one of your mafia solves. Why not vote pulsar in this case? Is it because Celever has already had some pressure? We have plenty of time in the day left and you said that you don't like how pulsar is being townleaned by everyone, so why not vote for her?
I feel like I'm asking a lot of questions but it's justified IMO
What exactly is your "solve" in each scenario? A "solve" would constitute definitively pointing out "these are the two players who would be mafia" in each of your scenarios. However the only one in which you kind of do that is scenario one (DBD and Miyami). In scenario two you have three players as mafia (me, Celever, and pulsar), and in scenario three you have ShyPebble, AirC, pulsar, and Neon all as mafia. I'd like to hear your actual "solves" in these scenarios to get a better idea of where your head's at.
I also question how your two biggest scumleans are pulsar and genisu, and then you don't vote for either of them lol. Even in the scenario that you think is "most likely" (scenario two), you've singled out pulsar as one of your mafia solves. Why not vote pulsar in this case? Is it because Celever has already had some pressure? We have plenty of time in the day left and you said that you don't like how pulsar is being townleaned by everyone, so why not vote for her?
I feel like I'm asking a lot of questions but it's justified IMO
going to wait for Peum's response and joey's replacement of AirC but the more I think the more I don't like Peum's "genisu is my number one scumlean" then not voting for him.
We're not at hammer for genisu or even at (hammer - 1) so throwing a vote on genisu wouldn't hurt. Seems like a way to save face if genisu does get voted out and flips scum ("oh I didn't vote for him but still suspected him, see?"). That way Peum still looks good without having actually bussed genisu
So my "solve" since I asked Peum for it, is genisu and Peum as of right now. As such, I'm holding my vote on genisu
We're not at hammer for genisu or even at (hammer - 1) so throwing a vote on genisu wouldn't hurt. Seems like a way to save face if genisu does get voted out and flips scum ("oh I didn't vote for him but still suspected him, see?"). That way Peum still looks good without having actually bussed genisu
This is the same for me now, with the exception of Peum being above the AirC/joey slot.
So my "solve" since I asked Peum for it, is genisu and Peum as of right now. As such, I'm holding my vote on genisu
To the first question, a solve constitutes being able to tell who the mafia are, since we realistically cannot do that in day 2, we can get the closest to a solve as possible. Which is pointing out the likeliest mafia in every scenario and having them pointed out from likeliest to unlikeliest. Anything else I could write would be misinformed and not pointing out the whole picture.
To the second question, the problem with voting Genisu or Pulsar is that we cannot point out in which scenario we are by voting them out, voting Pulsar would mean that we're in either Scenario 1 or Scenario 2, which doesnt help us. And Genisu has a lot of scumposting, but its not the most suspect member of any scenario, Celever actually has the most suspicions out of anyone in Scenario 2, while being townleaned in every other scenario. (To put in context, DBD would be the most sus out of scenario 1 and any afk would be the most in the Scenario 3). So by what I said, I would have to vote Celever.
i really like peum's post and i think its very insightful. i personally think we're in scenario 2 because I think a lot of the arguing around DBD felt like scum trying to establish towncred, but I do agree that Celever's alignment will give us the best idea of what scenario we're in
##Vote: Celever
i have some quibbles about how peum laid stuff out but i agree with the broad strokes
yeah you better be I accused pretty much everyone of being mafia if you combine all 3 scenarios
thanks for explaining, to me it wasn't clear who your "likeliest to unlikeliest" was in scenarios two and three. I thought that three names in scenario two and four names in scenario three meant that you thought there was equal likelihood that all of them were mafia. So if I'm reading right, you think...
Scenario 1: DBD and Miyami are most likely mafia
Scenario 2: Celever and pulsar are most likely mafia
Scenario 3: ShyPebble and AirC are most likely mafia
This is sussing more than half the remaining game. But it seems like you're most convinced of scenario two, so I guess at the end of the day your most likely solve is Celever and pulsar. Which I hella disagree with, but okay. At least that has become a little more clear to me.
I still think this is a way to cover your ass for if genisu flips scum. Where you can say "see everyone, I listed him as my most scummy!" so if he's lynched you can still take towncred even though you voted for Celever.
Basically here's what I'm seeing...
Current vote count (if I have this correct):
DBD (3): Celever, genisu, Neon
genisu (2): DBD, phoopes
Celever (2): Peum, pulsar
peum (1): jalmont
Not voting (5): Shypebble, AirC, Miyami
Looks like we have three wagons at the moment: DBD, Celever, and genisu. I'm convinced that genisu is scum, while DBD and Celever are town. Let's look at all possible scenarios though. These are ordered by what I'm most confident in to least confident in:
1. genisu is voted out and flips guilty: This is what I already mentioned... you can try to get towncred by not actually voting for genisu since you voted Celever but still can say "genisu was at the top of my suspect list."
2. DBD is voted out and flips innocent: This makes Celever look guilty because of their allegedly "TvS" interaction, making you look good for voting Celever.
3. Celever is voted out and flips innocent: This makes you look bad for taking the wrong side in the aforementioned "TvS" interaction, but people will automatically assume that DBD is guilty because of that interaction, so you're still pretty safe and live to see another day.
4. Celever is voted out and flips guilty: This makes you look good for voting out someone on the mafia team.
5. DBD is voted out and flips guilty: This makes you look bad for taking the wrong side in the aforementioned "TvS" interaction. You're not the only one voting for Celever, but you might be on the chopping block.
6. genisu is voted out and flips innocent: You still get towncred for voting for Celever, not genisu, because genisu flips innocent in this scenario.
In 4/6 scenarios, you look good with a Celever vote. In one scenario, you look bad, but you still probably live to see another day. In only one scenario (DBD voted out and flips guilty) are you possibly on the chopping block immediately. So I think this Celever vote is a strategic vote by you, a scum player, to make yourself look good/gain towncred.
As I said, I think most likely solve is genisu scum, DBD innocent, Celever innocent. And I really think you're second scum at the moment because of how you're posting about genisu. This "bussing without actually being on the bus" maneuver doesn't sit well with me at all.
---
Still sticking with my vote on genisu
this was supposed to say "Not voting (3): ShyPebble, joey, Miaymi" oops (I know this doesn't really matter but I just want to be correct)
but I stand by rest of what I said
There's an innate diference between objective and subjective decision making, my scumread posting is just there to say, If I were being subjective, yes. I would vote either Genisu or Pulsar, but what im doing is being objective. Choosing one of the three likeliest scenarios of the game and picking one who, rather than possibly gaining us no information if it is indeed wrong by basing it on my personal feelings, will gain us the most information about the game right now.
But lets do it your way, lets say that im mafia and discuss your scenarios.
If we vote Genisu out we're not gaining information in any of the outcomes, as I would possibly be Town or Mafia on both scenarios.
If we vote DBD out we're gaining information in half of the outcomes, where he flipping guilty makes me look bad and him being innocent makes it possible to be any of the other two scenarios.
If we vote Celever out we're gaining information in all of the outcomes, where if he is innocent, it makes me look bad. and if he is mafia, we gain a possible insight on who could be the other mafia (pulsar or you).
So logically speaking and based on your system of scenarios, voting Genisu out would be the worst option.
But lets do it your way, lets say that im mafia and discuss your scenarios.
If we vote Genisu out we're not gaining information in any of the outcomes, as I would possibly be Town or Mafia on both scenarios.
If we vote DBD out we're gaining information in half of the outcomes, where he flipping guilty makes me look bad and him being innocent makes it possible to be any of the other two scenarios.
If we vote Celever out we're gaining information in all of the outcomes, where if he is innocent, it makes me look bad. and if he is mafia, we gain a possible insight on who could be the other mafia (pulsar or you).
So logically speaking and based on your system of scenarios, voting Genisu out would be the worst option.
yeah.
idk i think phoopes is sort of missing peum's point here unfortunately and im not sure how to get it through
can anyone find me a game on smogon where the mafia decided to bus their teammate day 1
scratch that, can someone find me ANY game where that happened
like surely isn't it fair to say, well the day 1 vote was PROBABLY not a well coordinated thought on bus between DBD and des. Surely? Right? like why are people spending so much energy looking there right now when we have other people sliding under the radar.
that said, I'm kind of off celever for now, I think this kind of stubbornness for now is more like town celever not making sense. the more irrational arguments I see being pushed by them will make me reconsider though.
we'll see what happens with the AIRC sub, hope all is good with airc first and foremost. however, i'm going to need to see a decent level of improvement from joey
scratch that, can someone find me ANY game where that happened
like surely isn't it fair to say, well the day 1 vote was PROBABLY not a well coordinated thought on bus between DBD and des. Surely? Right? like why are people spending so much energy looking there right now when we have other people sliding under the radar.
that said, I'm kind of off celever for now, I think this kind of stubbornness for now is more like town celever not making sense. the more irrational arguments I see being pushed by them will make me reconsider though.
we'll see what happens with the AIRC sub, hope all is good with airc first and foremost. however, i'm going to need to see a decent level of improvement from joey
town
MIYAMI - was the most committed player to be on des and voted them first.
DBD - voting DBD at this point in the game is just a terrible idea, I am not even saying des could not have been bussed, I just do not see the value in pursuing this line of thought right now. There were plenty of people soft defending des who did not vote and have continued to not be great today. I fail to see why we should pursue DBD over those people.
in that sense, maybe this is not a traditional "wow DBD is leading the town" "A+ posting" "scumhunting genius" etc. (not that he's not not those things), but I just do not see day 1 shaking out with des and DBD being mafia teammates voting each other in the hopes of a bus at the end of the day? That just seems like a crazy strategy. even if you believe DBD is capable of that (I do), it just feels a little icky day 1 to throw your teammate under the bus like that. des actually has a good record of sticking around!
lean town
ShyPebble - I thought SP had a decent day 1 with a good vote on phoopes but today has been not good to be frank. we really need more from SP today otherwise they have to be reconsidered into the null pile
PHOOPES - today has been much better from them. has probably been one of the better posts today so i feel comfortable giving them somewhat of a day 1 pass.
PULSAR - i don't think i've ever seen pulsar this active but i do appreciate it given the day 1 absence. again, usually i connect high activity pulsar with being scum but perhaps this is a little different. I think they have been logically consistent and reasonable in a town-esque pulsar way.
NULL
neon - i need to find the mafia neon game and compare that to this because in that game neon was unusually productive and this game also feels like it's leaning towards that. i suppose the inconsistencies in what neon is saying is not exactly "unneon-like" as much as I want to dislike it
CELEVER - this may come as a surprise. as i said above:
"that said, I'm kind of off celever for now, I think this kind of stubbornness for now is more like town celever not making sense. the more irrational arguments I see being pushed by them will make me reconsider though."
the people voting celever kind of make me nervous as well. not going to say much in order to not deter certain behaviors .
lean scum
GENISU - #153 was open to voting airc/celever/neon then randomly moved their vote to DBD alongside mafia!des. day 2 celever is now incredibly a top 2 town read? huh? weirdly concerned about defending des such as in #429 even though genisu was voting neon with very similar justification. don't like this day 2 pivot at all
JOEY - day 1 not good in hindsight with the soft des defense while simultaneously towning miyami. just feels like a way to possibly defend a teammate without going all in. absolutely going to need a lot from joey tomorrow otherwise unfortunately this spot needs to be considered as a vote
PEUM - recent posts have been thoughtful and good
however...
the readslist is confusing to. how is your conclusion that...the only lean town is...neon ?
MIYAMI - was the most committed player to be on des and voted them first.
DBD - voting DBD at this point in the game is just a terrible idea, I am not even saying des could not have been bussed, I just do not see the value in pursuing this line of thought right now. There were plenty of people soft defending des who did not vote and have continued to not be great today. I fail to see why we should pursue DBD over those people.
in that sense, maybe this is not a traditional "wow DBD is leading the town" "A+ posting" "scumhunting genius" etc. (not that he's not not those things), but I just do not see day 1 shaking out with des and DBD being mafia teammates voting each other in the hopes of a bus at the end of the day? That just seems like a crazy strategy. even if you believe DBD is capable of that (I do), it just feels a little icky day 1 to throw your teammate under the bus like that. des actually has a good record of sticking around!
lean town
ShyPebble - I thought SP had a decent day 1 with a good vote on phoopes but today has been not good to be frank. we really need more from SP today otherwise they have to be reconsidered into the null pile
PHOOPES - today has been much better from them. has probably been one of the better posts today so i feel comfortable giving them somewhat of a day 1 pass.
PULSAR - i don't think i've ever seen pulsar this active but i do appreciate it given the day 1 absence. again, usually i connect high activity pulsar with being scum but perhaps this is a little different. I think they have been logically consistent and reasonable in a town-esque pulsar way.
NULL
neon - i need to find the mafia neon game and compare that to this because in that game neon was unusually productive and this game also feels like it's leaning towards that. i suppose the inconsistencies in what neon is saying is not exactly "unneon-like" as much as I want to dislike it
CELEVER - this may come as a surprise. as i said above:
"that said, I'm kind of off celever for now, I think this kind of stubbornness for now is more like town celever not making sense. the more irrational arguments I see being pushed by them will make me reconsider though."
the people voting celever kind of make me nervous as well. not going to say much in order to not deter certain behaviors .
lean scum
GENISU - #153 was open to voting airc/celever/neon then randomly moved their vote to DBD alongside mafia!des. day 2 celever is now incredibly a top 2 town read? huh? weirdly concerned about defending des such as in #429 even though genisu was voting neon with very similar justification. don't like this day 2 pivot at all
JOEY - day 1 not good in hindsight with the soft des defense while simultaneously towning miyami. just feels like a way to possibly defend a teammate without going all in. absolutely going to need a lot from joey tomorrow otherwise unfortunately this spot needs to be considered as a vote
PEUM - recent posts have been thoughtful and good
however...
I mean in one day Peum didn't say much and certainly nothing about voting des. How can you go from defending des to retroactively being like "yeah i was going to vote them." surely if you saw that des wasn't acting like their usually self, you would say that?
the readslist is confusing to. how is your conclusion that...the only lean town is...neon ?