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NOC Tracker Jailer Follower - Game Thread - Day 3!

phoopes said:
Oh yeah I guess from your POV I could be a mafia goon lying about being jail keeper and we’re actually in scenario 3 (tracker, follower, 8VT, 3 goons)

That’d be a crazy big brain play on my part but I promise that’s not what’s happening haha
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Mostly this post is from scum

This whole scenario was discussed yesterday, idk why phoopes made it sound like he was working it out or faintly remembering it other than to try and look towny like “oh yeah I forgot cos I’m town lol x3” but town doesn’t forget stuff like whether they’re conf or not y’know
 
I do agree that we shouldn't be treating phoopes as conftown just yet but I'd rather see if we can confirm him by his jailkeeping working than potentially flip a power role when we're already down two
 
Celever said:
hm.

There's a lot that I'd like to like about this post. I like the work of looking at different worlds -- by all means it's the same thing I was doing yesterday, and a large part of why I want to vote DBD (as I said yesterday) is to at least resolve the "was des bussed or not" question because if she was bussed DBD is responsible for it.

It's far more sensible for me to try to resolve the bussing world considering I also actually scumread DBD so I don't have to vote out town in order to close the possibility (which Peum by all means is claiming to be doing here, he openly doesn't think I'm scum and he's correct not to think that)

The issue with the worldbuilding here is world 3. World 3 isn't one of the potential worlds we're dealing with here. When you worldbuild in mafia you have to assume your enemies are playing well. Even if they're not playing well, they'll get caught up in one of the worlds anyway, but when you assume they're NOT playing well you're always missing a world.

Here's world 3:

Scenario Three: Kickback

In this scenario, mafia has seen town not directly going for them, and has decided not to rock the boat. This could be informed by IRL (maybe they're legit busy) or it's not and it's pure strategy, or it's a combination of both. No one's giving up; instead they're making an informed choice to let town fight amongst themselves without their input, maybe occasionally stirring the pot but largely staying out of the major fights of the day. This gives them maximum manoeuvrability moving forward, without having to put a stake in the ground and vote out town themselves today, improving their positioning in the longterm

Likeliest Mafia:
genisu, ShyPebble, AirC/joey, Peum, Neon

Still Plausible Mafia (interfacing but not hard pushing within the major fight of the day, since Peum's worlds are focussed on the thunderdome so this category has to exist for each world and he left them out):
- DBD (roped into the fight by me, didn't have the choice to slink back but could be paired with someone who is)
- Miyami / phoopes / jalmont (TvTing the thunderdome and focussing pushes elsewhere fits into this strategy)

Yup, that's most of the game.
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I'm putting this as world 4 for clarity
 
by which I mean I'm putting the read as this and not elaborating because I don't think I could fit all that and also I don't feel like trying to fit it all regardless fuck you
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Celever said:
I would prefer to vote out Peum than pulsar, either of them could be scum, but I think they’re prob both town

Y’all won’t vote for who I think the scum are though x3

I honestly think the team’s phoopes / DBD now lol
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I don't know man

I guess at this point I have to be open to a DBD vote given what genisu was thinking

but genisu did backtrack on DBD. i suppose genisu did say the team was me phoopes so i guess it wouldn't be terrible to consider both of them. idk
 
I feel like no one town reads Peum which seems kind of weird to me. I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing.

It's weird because I feel like they've been one of the better content posters so you would expect at least one person to be on their side but it's really been only...pulsar MAYBE?
 
jalmont said:
I feel like no one town reads Peum which seems kind of weird to me. I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing.

It's weird because I feel like they've been one of the better content posters so you would expect at least one person to be on their side but it's really been only...pulsar MAYBE?
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no one townreads Peum but also yesterday no momentum to vote for him could build at all

it's definitely weird and a backread would prob reveal a couple likely partners who've been passively shielding him (whether he's town or scum I think this is true, he's been shielded this game one way or the other)
 
The way Celever is pushing the importance of the question "was Des bussed" is crazy to me. If we look at both worlds:

World 1: Des wasn't bussed and the wagon is clean

This is the world I think we live in, as I know my role PM says Town and I am fairly sure Miyami doesn't push for an instant policy vote on her scummate. If you want to show that this world is true, as Celever "wishes" to by voting me, you only end up in a 2v7 where we lose our only remaining PR tonight. The key thing here is that Celever framing his push on me in terms of des's bussing first makes it more easy for him to have plausible deniability: when I flip town, Celever just retreats behind "we needed to resolve the question".

World 2: Des was hard-bussed by Miyami

Even in this scenario, voting me doesn't resolve anything; in fact, it only makes it worse because the Mafia can direct their attention off of Miyami onto off-voters. While Celever would certainly put his neck on the chopping block, he still has the same excuse as in World 1 to duck behind.

What do we even gain? In World 1, we gain circumstantial evidence regarding the voters off of des's wagon. Quite conveniently, phoopes, who was alongside Celever on the counterwagon to mafia, is now a potential solve for Celever. In World 2, we don't actually solve anything. Either way, town loses.

##Vote: Celever
 
we still have 4 votes in theory lol, just did the maths and checked

so icl I'm pretty fine with whatever today. I understand not going for DBD first, but it seems like no one has any particularly strong scumreads anyway and that usually happens bc people have the wrong PoE

jalmont
Pebble
Neon
pulsar
Peum
Miyami
phoopes
Dead by Daylight

I guess this is my order of preference for who we should vote out (top lowest preference, bottom highest preference), and since it's so far from everyone else's I might just kickback and chill a bit lol
 
Dead by Daylight said:
The way Celever is pushing the importance of the question "was Des bussed" is crazy to me. If we look at both worlds:

World 1: Des wasn't bussed and the wagon is clean

This is the world I think we live in, as I know my role PM says Town and I am fairly sure Miyami doesn't push for an instant policy vote on her scummate. If you want to show that this world is true, as Celever "wishes" to by voting me, you only end up in a 2v7 where we lose our only remaining PR tonight. The key thing here is that Celever framing his push on me in terms of des's bussing first makes it more easy for him to have plausible deniability: when I flip town, Celever just retreats behind "we needed to resolve the question".

World 2: Des was hard-bussed by Miyami

Even in this scenario, voting me doesn't resolve anything; in fact, it only makes it worse because the Mafia can direct their attention off of Miyami onto off-voters. While Celever would certainly put his neck on the chopping block, he still has the same excuse as in World 1 to duck behind.

What do we even gain? In World 1, we gain circumstantial evidence regarding the voters off of des's wagon. Quite conveniently, phoopes, who was alongside Celever on the counterwagon to mafia, is now a potential solve for Celever. In World 2, we don't actually solve anything. Either way, town loses.

##Vote: Celever
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what lol

did I post a bunch while high and don't remember literally nothing in this post sounds like me or is what I think about the game
 
Celever said:
I just still think he’s scum sadly lmao

I’m not tryna tunnel and I’m not even planning to push him tho, I don’t wanna centralise
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Dead by Daylight said:
The way Celever is pushing the importance of the question "was Des bussed" is crazy to me. If we look at both worlds:

World 1: Des wasn't bussed and the wagon is clean

This is the world I think we live in, as I know my role PM says Town and I am fairly sure Miyami doesn't push for an instant policy vote on her scummate. If you want to show that this world is true, as Celever "wishes" to by voting me, you only end up in a 2v7 where we lose our only remaining PR tonight. The key thing here is that Celever framing his push on me in terms of des's bussing first makes it more easy for him to have plausible deniability: when I flip town, Celever just retreats behind "we needed to resolve the question".

World 2: Des was hard-bussed by Miyami

Even in this scenario, voting me doesn't resolve anything; in fact, it only makes it worse because the Mafia can direct their attention off of Miyami onto off-voters. While Celever would certainly put his neck on the chopping block, he still has the same excuse as in World 1 to duck behind.

What do we even gain? In World 1, we gain circumstantial evidence regarding the voters off of des's wagon. Quite conveniently, phoopes, who was alongside Celever on the counterwagon to mafia, is now a potential solve for Celever. In World 2, we don't actually solve anything. Either way, town loses.

##Vote: Celever
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like bro look at these two posts one after the other and tell me this makes any sense lol
 
Dead by Daylight said:
The way Celever is pushing the importance of the question "was Des bussed" is crazy to me. If we look at both worlds:

World 1: Des wasn't bussed and the wagon is clean

This is the world I think we live in, as I know my role PM says Town and I am fairly sure Miyami doesn't push for an instant policy vote on her scummate. If you want to show that this world is true, as Celever "wishes" to by voting me, you only end up in a 2v7 where we lose our only remaining PR tonight. The key thing here is that Celever framing his push on me in terms of des's bussing first makes it more easy for him to have plausible deniability: when I flip town, Celever just retreats behind "we needed to resolve the question".

World 2: Des was hard-bussed by Miyami

Even in this scenario, voting me doesn't resolve anything; in fact, it only makes it worse because the Mafia can direct their attention off of Miyami onto off-voters. While Celever would certainly put his neck on the chopping block, he still has the same excuse as in World 1 to duck behind.

What do we even gain? In World 1, we gain circumstantial evidence regarding the voters off of des's wagon. Quite conveniently, phoopes, who was alongside Celever on the counterwagon to mafia, is now a potential solve for Celever. In World 2, we don't actually solve anything. Either way, town loses.

##Vote: Celever
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okay we know where you stand on celever

do you have any opinions on anyone else in the game? I noticed you totally disregarded anything that happened inbetween this post and your last post. a couple people died in the meantime so surely that would have been notable enough to opine on right? or are you just going to be voting celever for the rest of the game?
 
phoopes said:
Well okay, may be too little too late here but I’m jailkeeper. I jailed Celever night one.

Didn’t want to claim but with a little only an hour left I figure I should

After all, we’re in setup 4 and mafia can’t role block me AND genisu in the same night. And if they do they can’t use the kill. I’m assuming they’re going to want to kill either me or genisu now meaning that the other one of us gets to use the role at least

I hope my logic is making sense and this isn’t a huge blunder

Not that there’s enough people online/belief in me for this to matter but we’ll see lol

Vote joey
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well i wish i was awake to see this
 
joey said:
##Vote pulsar512b

This is what I see as the best vote right now, her activity today mostly comprises of little substance until she agreed with Peum's Celever vote, which was based in logic but we now know is wrong. Over the course of the day she voted genisu, then Celever, then Phoopes, all of whom we know now to be confirmed town - this would be more damning if genisu and phoopes weren't the prevailing wagons before claiming though.
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okay if this is the main argument against me still is that my rebuttal is that at the time, with the information we had, I think these were good people to push and vote (though admittedly cele isnt CONFIRMED town or anything). I also kind of don't think my activity was little substance but thats up to you to interpret i guess.
 
phoopes said:
Okay I’m talking through this. Three things can happen today.

We vote out town. I then get roleblocked and killed too next night if they’re allowed to target same person. If not I get roleblocked and someone else gets killed. Basically I turn into Vanilla Town.

We vote out goon. I get killed next night unless I manage to jail the remaining roleblocker.

We vote out roleblocker. I get killed next night unless I manage to jail the remaining goon.

So I guess essentially only two things can happen then. I thought it was going to be three different possibilities but regardless looks like I die tomorrow night unless we lynch mafia today and I hit the right person with jail. Which would mean we win the game gg

So wait

1. We vote out town. Mafia is allowed to double target me. I die tomorrow night and next day cycle it’s a 2vs5 with me dead

2. We vote out town. Mafia is not allowed to double target me. I get roleblocked, someone else dies, and next day cycle it’s a 2vs5 with me alive

3. We vote out either mafia. I attempt to jail remaining mafia and miss, so I die tomorrow night. We got to next day cycle with a 1vs6

4. We vote out either mafia. I attempt to jail remaining mafia and hit, so I survive and last mafia member is revealed. We enter next day cycle with a 1vs7 and vote out the person I jailed. gg

So I guess there’s four distinct scenarios

Okay I think I got it. Does that make sense to everyone?
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have we got an answer from AP about this double target thing so we know if we're in 1 or 2
 
jalmont said:
I'm voting Pulsar because that's who Joey voted yesterday but I'm not committed to that vote by any means. I thought their swap to phoopes came really out of nowhere.

#378 by pulsar has them saying they want one of airc/genisu/shypebble so when that opportunity presented itself, it's weird that pulsar suddenly thought that phoopes was actually an ok vote. reads to me like someone ok voting pretty much anywhere that's not their partner
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i was largely following peum's lead because I thought his argument made sense. I think without peum I would've ended up on airc/genisu/shypebble
 
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