Smogon Premier League XVII - Week 3

[shiloh]

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Tournament Rules and General Guidelines

Matchups:

Dragonspiral Tyrants (0) vs (0) Alpha Ruiners

SV OU: Baddy vs lax
SV OU: Fusien vs sunsets
SV OU: Axzel vs sire clod
SV OU: myjava vs fakenagol
SS OU: Ikaishi vs ChrisPBacon
SM OU: Vert vs PZZ
ORAS OU: Poek vs Metallica126
BW OU: SoulWind vs sugarhigh
DPP OU: Lady Bug vs Dababy2
ADV OU: Shitrock enjoyer vs Prinz
GSC OU: RealJester vs Fakes
RBY OU: LNumbers vs SaDiSTiCNarwhal

Stark Sharks (0) vs (0) Wi-Fi Wolfpack

SV OU: Nat vs bbeeaa
SV OU: hellom vs Fogbound Lake
SV OU: Plague vs Originality56
SV OU: Attribute vs Let's Rumble Shall We
SS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs Gtcha
SM OU: DeeJ vs Gondra
ORAS OU: Santu vs Persephone
BW OU: harshest vs Monai
DPP OU: Malekith vs Void
ADV OU: mayo vs mielke
GSC OU: aminita vs choolio
RBY OU: GirlsSeeGhosts vs Isza

Ever Grande BIGS (0) vs (0) Team Raiders

SV OU: JustFranco vs Eternal Spirit
SV OU: pdt vs zS
SV OU: Stareal vs Ash KetchumGamer
SV OU: Setsu vs JJ09LIE
SS OU: Mattz_ vs Fc
SM OU: GeniusX vs Charmflash
ORAS OU: xray vs Ruffles
BW OU: Mako vs Star
DPP OU: 199 vs Skyrio
ADV OU: Johnald vs Endill
GSC OU: OmBrArch vs Underlying
RBY OU: Serpi vs BeeOrSomething

Indie Scooters (0) vs (0) Cryonicles

SV OU: Pais vs watashi
SV OU: heileone vs clean
SV OU: DAHLI vs bhkg
SV OU: Storm Zone vs kDCA
SS OU: 1 True Lycan vs Corazan
SM OU: Drachenkeule vs robjr
ORAS OU: Ox the Fox vs c0mp
BW OU: Brine vs GaryTheGengar
DPP OU: SFG vs Gilbert arenas
ADV OU: Triangles vs zinc
GSC OU: elodin vs Zokuru
RBY OU: nicole7735 vs Sceptross

Circus Maximus Tigers (0) vs (0) Congregation of the Classiest

SV OU: Patatexv vs Lazuli
SV OU: Ewin vs Xrn
SV OU: Cow vs LpZ
SV OU: Kate vs Shengineer
SS OU: entrocefalo vs damien the genius
SM OU: Tace vs Dj Breloominati♬
ORAS OU: NoName6293 vs Piyu
BW OU: Finchinator vs Dark Eeveon
DPP OU: Pideous vs Sheik :
ADV OU: Skarpherim vs Garay oak
GSC OU: Rubyblood vs M Dragon
RBY OU: Laroxyl vs Ctown6


Deadline will be February 1, 11:00 PM GMT -5.

Predictions Format

Dragonspiral Tyrants (0) vs (0) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: Baddy vs lax
SV OU: Fusien vs sunsets
SV OU: Axzel vs sire clod
SV OU: myjava vs fakenagol
SS OU: Ikaishi vs ChrisPBacon
SM OU: Vert vs PZZ
ORAS OU: Poek vs Metallica126
BW OU: SoulWind vs sugarhigh
DPP OU: Lady Bug vs Dababy2
ADV OU: shitrock enjoyer vs Prinz
GSC OU: RealJester vs Fakes
RBY OU: LNumbers vs SaDiSTiCNarwhal

Stark Sharks (0) vs (0) Wi-Fi Wolfpack
SV OU: Nat vs bbeeaa
SV OU: hellom vs Fogbound Lake
SV OU: Plague vs Originality56
SV OU: Attribute vs Let's Rumble Shall We
SS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs Gtcha
SM OU: DeeJ vs Gondra
ORAS OU: Santu vs Persephone
BW OU: harshest vs Monai
DPP OU: Malekith vs Void
ADV OU: mayo vs mielke
GSC OU: aminita vs choolio
RBY OU: GirlsSeeGhosts vs Isza

Ever Grande BIGS (0) vs (0) Team Raiders
SV OU: JustFranco vs Eternal Spirit
SV OU: pdt vs zS
SV OU: Stareal vs Ash KetchumGamer
SV OU: Setsu vs JJ09LIE
SS OU: Mattz_ vs Fc
SM OU: GeniusX vs Charmflash
ORAS OU: xray vs Ruffles
BW OU: Mako vs Star
DPP OU: 199 vs Skyrio
ADV OU: Johnald vs Endill
GSC OU: OmBrArch vs Underlying
RBY OU: Serpi vs BeeOrSomething

Indie Scooters (0) vs (0) Cryonicles
SV OU: Pais vs watashi
SV OU: heileone vs clean
SV OU: DAHLI vs bhkg
SV OU: Storm Zone vs kDCA
SS OU: 1 True Lycan vs Corazan
SM OU: Drachenkeule vs robjr
ORAS OU: Ox the Fox vs c0mp
BW OU: Brine vs GaryTheGengar
DPP OU: SFG vs Gilbert arenas
ADV OU: Triangles vs zinc
GSC OU: elodin vs Zokuru
RBY OU: nicole7735 vs Sceptross

Circus Maximus Tigers (0) vs (0) Congregation of the Classiest
SV OU: Patatexv vs Lazuli
SV OU: Ewin vs Xrn
SV OU: Cow vs LpZ
SV OU: Kate vs Shengineer
SS OU: entrocefalo vs damien the genius
SM OU: Tace vs Dj Breloominati♬
ORAS OU: NoName6293 vs Piyu
BW OU: Finchinator vs Dark Eeveon
DPP OU: Pideous vs Sheik :
ADV OU: Skarpherim vs Garay oak
GSC OU: Rubyblood vs M Dragon
RBY OU: Laroxyl vs Ctown6

 

[giraffefromholland]

S/o Ticken for getting replays up as fast as he has in the previous weeks. You've got a high bar to meet, Shiloh

 

[Vyluda]

Dragonspiral Tyrants (9) vs (3) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: Baddy vs lax
SV OU: Fusien vs sunsets
SV OU: Axzel vs sire clod
SV OU: myjava vs fakenagol
SS OU: Ikaishi vs ChrisPBacon
SM OU: Vert vs PZZ
ORAS OU: Poek vs Metallica126
BW OU: SoulWind vs sugarhigh
DPP OU: Lady Bug vs Dababy2
ADV OU: shitrock enjoyer vs Prinz
GSC OU: RealJester vs Fakes
RBY OU: LNumbers vs SaDiSTiCNarwhal

Stark Sharks (6) vs (6) Wi-Fi Wolfpack
SV OU: Nat vs bbeeaa
SV OU: hellom vs Fogbound Lake
SV OU: Plague vs Originality56
SV OU: Attribute vs Let's Rumble Shall We
SS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs Gtcha
SM OU: DeeJ vs Gondra
ORAS OU: Santu vs Persephone
BW OU: harshest vs Monai
DPP OU: Malekith vs Void
ADV OU: mayo vs mielke
GSC OU: aminita vs choolio
RBY OU: GirlsSeeGhosts vs Isza

Ever Grande BIGS (5) vs (7) Team Raiders
SV OU: JustFranco vs Eternal Spirit
SV OU: pdt vs zS
SV OU: Stareal vs Ash KetchumGamer
SV OU: Setsu vs JJ09LIE
SS OU: Mattz_ vs Fc
SM OU: GeniusX vs Charmflash
ORAS OU: xray vs Ruffles
BW OU: Mako vs Star
DPP OU: 199 vs Skyrio
ADV OU: Johnald vs Endill
GSC OU: OmBrArch vs Underlying
RBY OU: Serpi vs BeeOrSomething

Indie Scooters (4) vs (8) Cryonicles
SV OU: Pais vs watashi
SV OU: heileone vs clean
SV OU: DAHLI vs bhkg
SV OU: Storm Zone vs kDCA
SS OU: 1 True Lycan vs Corazan
SM OU: Drachenkeule vs robjr
ORAS OU: Ox the Fox vs c0mp
BW OU: Brine vs GaryTheGengar
DPP OU: SFG vs Gilbert arenas
ADV OU: Triangles vs zinc
GSC OU: elodin vs Zokuru
RBY OU: nicole7735 vs Sceptross

Circus Maximus Tigers (6) vs (6) Congregation of the Classiest
SV OU: Patatexv vs Lazuli
SV OU: Ewin vs Xrn
SV OU: Cow vs LpZ
SV OU: Kate vs Shengineer
SS OU: entrocefalo vs damien the genius
SM OU: Tace vs Dj Breloominati♬
ORAS OU: NoName6293 vs Piyu
BW OU: Finchinator vs Dark Eeveon
DPP OU: Pideous vs Sheik :
ADV OU: Skarpherim vs Garay oak
GSC OU: Rubyblood vs M Dragon
RBY OU: Laroxyl vs Ctown6

 

[ILoveGarchom]

Stark Sharks (12) vs (0) Wi-Fi Wolfpack
go sharks

 

[Let's Rumble Shall We]

Stark Sharks (12) vs (0) Wi-Fi Wolfpack
go sharks

oh yea you wait

 

[ego]

Week 3 updates:​

Sharks (4): no changes
Classiest (4): no changes
Scooters (4): no changes
BIGs (2): no changes
Tyrants (2): no changes
Cryos (1): no changes
Raiders (1): no changes

Wolfpack (2):

- ORAS: kingofking (1-0) -> Persephone (1-0)​

- ADV: violet river (0-2) -> mielke (0-0)​

- GSC: coco (1-0) -> choolio (0-1)​

Tigers (0):

- SV: entrocefalo (2-0) -> Cow (0-0)​

- SS: Finchinator (0-2) -> entrocefalo (0-0)​

- BW: Cow (1-1) -> Finchinator (0-0)​

​

Ruiners (0):

- SV: ACR1 (0-2) -> fakenagol (0-0)​

- SM: Metallica126 (0-2) -> PZZ (0-0)​

- ORAS: pj (0-2) -> Metallica126 (0-2)​

- DPP: Tizio Potente Ao (0-2) -> Dababy2 (0-0)​

Not going to spend too much time overthinking the unchanged roster changes; obviously teams generally value the players they drafted and are going to have more than two weeks of patience. The three two-win teams didn't make any roster changes, nor did most of the other teams. I don't really have much to say about the Wolfpack's substitutions; swapping from a struggling budget ADV starter to a solid ADV backup makes sense, and I think it's worth sorting through their multiple viable options in some other tiers. The Ruiners have struggled badly and shuffled up a bunch of their sub-10k options to look for improvement. Makes sense.

With that said, I think the Tigers' moves are really interesting. Not sure if this means the "Finchinator in SS" experiment is over, but at the very least they're trying out another configuration after an 0-2 start, and that'd be unremarkable if not for the fact that the shuffling moves entrocefalo into SS, and THAT'd be unremarkable if not for the fact that entrocefalo's currently 2-0 in SV. I flipped through some recent sheets to look for a comparison. In the past three years of SPL, do you know how many players have gone 2-0 in their first two games before switching into a different tier for week three? By my count, it's one. And entrocefalo's not really like the other example at all; Conflict went for 26k in 2024 in part because you knew you could swap him to cover another tier if need be and still be fine. But entrocefalo went for 3k with a prior 0-5 record in SPL and was ranked second-last among SV starters.

Basically, you'd think that if you believed in one of your budget SV starters enough to draft them, and then they won their first two games, you'd want to run with it. And this week is interesting because they're not doing that most obvious thing. I think there are a lot of indicators here. Maybe they don't believe in entrocefalo (any more than they did when they bid 3k for him) or maybe they believe in him to be a genuinely serviceable option in SS, or maybe it's just that they'd rather keep him in SV but they desperately need a backup SS option. Maybe they've lost faith in Finchinator SS, or maybe this is just a "shake things up" type of move for a winless team, or maybe this is all motivated by them wanting to take a look at Cow in SV. Regardless, I think it's really interesting.

Some other scattered notes:

- Four 3k players are 0-2 and slated to play again this week: sugarhigh, Kate, Corazan, aminita. I guess that's our hot seat category.​

- Five teams have a single 10k+ player who's currently 0-2. The Tigers have four such players, which is a pretty obvious reason that they're winless. While we're at it, though, the Raiders also have four winless 10k+ players (Star, Ruffles, Eternal Spirit, JJ09LIE). Certainly looking for a bounceback.​

- Obviously talking about "league MVP" is kinda meaningless two weeks in, and that sample size especially exacerbates the tension between awarding the people who have played the best and the people who have picked up the most valuable wins, but if there WAS an MVP award for the first two weeks only, I'd suggest elodin. The Scooters have won consecutive 7-5 weeks, and elodin's beaten a pair of top 3 players in the GSC pool (after being ranked last in the PRs). Other players with a pair of wins against highly-rated players in the pool include zS and Skyrio, both for the Raiders.​

- does bbeeaa get moved to SM at some point? The Tyrants matchup comes in week 5; are we really going to see Vert-Gondra in those slots? Or do we see the Vert-Void moneymatch that week instead?​

- I think Trials and Tribulations is the most solid game in the original trilogy despite the fact that I really don't like 3-2 as much as some people seem to. I just think it's the most narratively satisfying and cohesive of the trilogy, with a genuinely really fun (and colossal) final case and no big problems (I have a lot of patience for 3-3 because Furio Tigre is conceptually the funniest villain in any of the games). PWAA is dragged down by 1-2 and 1-3 being pretty tedious and 1-3 especially having way too much backtracking (although I do think the game works in large part because it is just a romance story and a pretty effective one) and Justice for All has the worst case in the original trilogy without nearly enough highs to make up for it elsewhere in the game​

 

[Quarante8]

Rooting for my man the small child numero dos Dababy2 to win his game :D

 

[Posho]

won, gg

 

[ninth]

Dragonspiral Tyrants (0) vs (0) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: Baddy vs lax
SV OU: Fusien vs sunsets
SV OU: Axzel vs sire clod - I like how many SPL rookie vs SPL rookie matchups we're getting
SV OU: myjava vs fakenagol - java getting his Zama frozen feels like it violates most laws of nature

Stark Sharks (0) vs (0) Wi-Fi Wolfpack
SV OU: Nat vs bbeeaa - big highlight. Really like how both of them build SV
SV OU: hellom vs Fogbound Lake
SV OU: Plague vs Originality56
SV OU: Attribute vs Let's Rumble Shall We - I like what I've seen from inertial and I need to predict against odds a bit to catch my record up

Ever Grande BIGS (0) vs (0) Team Raiders
SV OU: JustFranco vs Eternal Spirit
SV OU: pdt vs zS - I liked pdt's last game, felt confident
SV OU: Stareal vs Ash KetchumGamer
SV OU: Setsu vs JJ09LIE - math bold, JJ isn't going 0-2 in SPL

Indie Scooters (0) vs (0) Cryonicles
SV OU: Pais vs watashi
SV OU: heileone vs clean - these are two good players but I feel like they're both gonna bring some extreme tryhard teams, expecting Lu and Hat/Torn
SV OU: DAHLI vs bhkg - my tiebreaker here is that the Cryos are not historically a playoffs presence
SV OU: Storm Zone vs kDCA

Circus Maximus Tigers (0) vs (0) Congregation of the Classiest
SV OU: Patatexv vs Lazuli - this is Lazuli's year I think
SV OU: Ewin vs Xrn
SV OU: Cow vs LpZ - this is an interesting swap like ego mentioned. entro was 2-0 in SV - I don't think one of the wins was necessarily the smoothest but a win's a win. Cow plays most things reasonably well though
SV OU: Kate vs Shengineer