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NOC Everchanging Mafia - Game thread - Day 6!

btw @ whoever is tracker, the track should be used as a watered down doc, used on whoever you think will die in the night, as it is probably more reliable than trying to catch scum by using it on them. Bonus points if you catch your target deepwolfing and carrying the nk
 
AirC said:
Well I'm hammering in 15 minutes in case someone wants to say anything cool
Click to expand...
IMG_5951.jpeg

does this count as cool
 
This post has been written before nightkill, so I wont be assuming the nightkill into the equation, if I am not dead due to mafia wanting to reinforce Pulsar's last scum stance that is good, Scum has severely underestimated the capability of Town to solve all mafia in this Scenario.

3. Peum
5. vishy fishy
6. des121
7. Dead by Daylight
10. Evie
11. AirC
13. Westcraft
15. ElectricityCat
17. Genisu

Now that the necessary vote of Pulsar is gone, with the tradeoff of my townleaning in case Pulsar rolled Town, sadly this post will be seen by lens that judge me as potential mafia by some, but im fine with that. This is a necessary post, I will not refuse to express my solve or stop being active due to it. This town has yet not lost, so we can give our last leg.

First of all, due to the pressure of the situation, we have to make three assumptions that could be wrong.

One, Des is Town, due to how the passing mechanic works. This is good enough for now, having Des cutoff as mafia gives us leeway to start our solve

Two, WestCraft is town. This could've been an easy mafia bus to get towncore, but we need to get as many towncore as possible for this day, or we wont make it out.

Third of all, DBD cant be mafia with ECat. This one is important, Ecat passing mayor to DBD d1 means that either they're not on the same side or mafia wasted their pass D1. Due to how thoughtful last day was by mafia, I am going to say that a keep role would've been better than just keeping mayor on another mafia.

By these three principles we can now create a different list than seen above

Potential mafia scenarios (I will obviously not put me on here):
5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
15. ElectricityCat
17. Genisu

5. vishy fishy
7. Dead by Daylight
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

If you're DBD or Ecat feel free to see one of the two lists above to form your scumcore

We now reach the land of subjectiveness. In which any couching could make us lose the game, but I will now be acting as if DBD and Vishy arent on the same scumteam, this is simply due to vishy voting DBD on day 1. Nothing else. I do not believe newscum would vote their partner d1.

Potential mafia scenarios (I will obviously not put me on here):
5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
15. ElectricityCat
17. Genisu

5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

7. Dead by Daylight
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

Now I will present the most subjective point of this whole scenario. Ecat cannot possibly be mafia. This is something I've been saving up for 2 days, I have two subjective points to believe this point, one. A Fairy would have never carried the kill if Ecat was mafia, mafia thought that anyone being tracked would end up knowing who visited them and what did they visit. This even though not clarified on the roles info, everyone seemed to think that it worked like that. It being a question to the host (which unfortunately gives us more reason to suspect westcraft) or a missconception that ended up being true which ended up directing their kill gives us a way to dictamine the point I will be presenting for why A fairy would have never carried the kill.

The mafia gave their nightkill to the most sus member, so that tracker wouldnt track their deepwolfs or luckily find them. ECat would've been more sus than A fairy, so by matter of discarding, and mafia's logical play, Ecat cannot be mafia.

My second point is that if Ecat ends up being mafia I wouldnt have any fault on the world because I suggested this policy vote day 2 thank you so no one can blame me.


Potential mafia scenarios (I will obviously not put me on here):
5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu
(remove equal ones)
5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

7. Dead by Daylight
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

Potential mafia scenarios (I will obviously not put me on here):

5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

7. Dead by Daylight
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

We now have atleast two mafia in every pool. If we decided to go with these pools, I am not a math teacher like bliz sadly but if my understanding of math is right and all assumptions then

if we voted randomly between the two pools, one pool has 1/4 of hitting a town and the other has a 2/4 of hitting a town. Which I think would be like a 3/8 chance of hitting the townie? Overall not viable I think
So then we have to go with the assumption that between Evie, AirC and Genisu there are 2 mafia, which gives us a 66% of hitting a mafia member and a 33% of hitting a town member, but this is assuming that all 3 are not mafia. I honestly dont know this is frying my brain

But with this said, I cannot make the pool smaller than it's now, and every assumption I make just makes me wonder if Westcraft is really as confirmed as he pretends to be, but hey. I thought that Bliz and Miyami shouldnt have been voted out, who am I to say why the inactive should be voted out.

I will give arguments to why everyone above could be mafia and arguments to how they could be not mafia and you guys will make the deciding shot. After this post I want to see how my townreads (Des, Westcraft and Ecat) vote. So I wont be influencing their vote anymore than that.

Arguments on why they could be mafia:
Vishy Fishy: Declared themselves as mafia, Maybe the vote to Evie d3 was coached by a mafia trying to tell her to stay out of the leading wagons, which she got off everyday except day 2.
Evie: Bussed a fairy day 1 to get towncred from Celever, Celever dying first rather than me could be due to how Celever actually considered Evie not as townie as me, where I tunneled more on Ecat and Pulsar. Weirdly silent on day 2 after votes were moving to another wagons
AirC: Defended Ecat to apply the strategy of gaining towncred by association, weirdly followed wagons after, Vote on Pulsar day 2 could've been a vote to throw chaos into the mix.
Genisu: plays differently to other games idk I cant read this guy even if my life depended on it
DBD: A fairy famously has like 0 posts on this guy for some reason, this guy has even worse votes than me so idk what to say

Arguments on why the could be town:
Vishy Fishy: Majorly seen as town by the maj of dead townies, Which honestly have seen more noobtown than me in mafia NOC, pushed against the pulsar wagon (Ecat vote wasnt really good tho)
Evie: General activity, most active members just ended up being revealed as town, at some points I thought we were playing 2 player game between who can guess what mafia was doing at any point, Accused A fairy day 1
AirC: Pulsar wagon would've thrown them onto the spotlight if it ended up happening, took a while to vote Pulsar which I would guess mafia would be Happy to do
Genisu: I have no idea bro, whatever he did with a fairy on day 2 idk
DBD: Pushed against the Pulsar vote by suggesting an AirC vote which is better than ECat I guess
 
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