I'm glad to see this thread is getting traction again. I've been wanting to make a follow-up to it, and now that we're nine months deeper into SV, both with no confirmation on when the successive format is releasing and a lack of any change to the tiering system, it seems like now is a good time to get tiering reform back in discussion.
I'm going to split my follow-up into three sections so it's easier to look through. The "past" section will go over the changes of the last 9 months and the entire stable DLC2 era, the "present" section will diagnose tiering issues and our system's current state, and the "future" section will go over some potential outcomes of choosing or not choosing to change tiering policy.
Past
My original post in this thread looked at the 3 full tier shifts from July 2024 to January 2025, and my biggest follow-up gave a look at how the April 2025 tier shifts changed things. There's been 3 full tier shifts since then, and we're due to have 3 more this year. Now that SV's DLC2 period has gone on for as long as the entire SS DLC2 period, which implemented its policy on freezing rises just 2 tier shifts before SV released. I'd like to suggest that lower tier councils should more seriously look at freezing rises, just like in SS. Ideally, this would go into effect before the April 2026 tier shifts.
In just the last 9 months of tier shifts and tiering action (April 2025 to present), these are the new vacuums that have opened up:
UU net: -4
Lost: -7
Deoxys-Speed, Heatran, Ogerpon-Cornerstone, Tornadus-Therian, Tyranitar, Weezing-Galar, Zarude
Gained: +3
Araquanid, Tinkaton, Weavile
RU net: -10
Lost: -12
Fezandipiti, Gyarados, Hippowdon, Lilligant-Hisui, Mamoswine, Oricorio-Pom-Pom, Salamence, Slither Wing, Volcanion, Weezing-Galar, Zapdos-Galar, Zoroark-Hisui
Gained: +2
Araquanid, Blissey
NU net: -1
Lost: -6
Breloom, Diancie, Gastrodon, Muk-Alola, Porygon-Z, Torterra
Gained: +5
Araquanid, Barraskewda, Chansey, Reuniclus, Rhyperior
PU net: -9
Lost: -14
Altaria, Articuno-Galar, Bellibolt, Braviary, Dudunsparce, Espeon, Frosmoth, Goodra, Grafaiai, Houndstone, Scrafty, Slowbro-Galar, Thwackey, Wo-Chien
Gained: +5
Amoonguss, Galvantula, Ninetales-Alola, Porygon2, Toxicroak
ZU net: -4
Lost: -6
Bellossom, Braviary, Grafaiai, Mismagius, Qwilfish-Hisui, Thwackey
Gained: +2
Toxicroak, Venusaur
Like I outlined and predicted in the OP,
tiering changes have been weighted heavily towards losses and instability in lower tiers. Nitpicking a little bit, but UU and RU didn't gain much from Araquanid, ZU isn't poised to hang onto Toxicroak, and Blissey squeezed Chansey out of RU more than it added diversity to the tier. Lower tiers could expect to lose a net average of 6 more Pokemon each going into the end of Scarlet and Violet. That might not sound like a lot, but a lot of the Pokemon that are lost from tiers tend to be more influential.
For the big picture, here's the accumulation of net changes across lower tiers from July 2024 to January 2026:
UU 2024-2026 net: -5
Lost: -14
Hoopa-Unbound, Iron Crown, Moltres, Ogerpon-Cornerstone, Okidogi, Pecharunt, Polteageist, Quaquaval, Tornadus-Therian, Tyranitar, Ursaluna, Weezing-Galar, Zapdos, Zarude
Gained: +9
Blissey, Clodsire, Ribombee, Scizor, Serperior, Skarmory, Tinkaton, Torkoal, Weavile
RU 2024-2026 net: -11
Lost: -17
Blastoise, Cobalion, Conkeldurr, Fezandipiti, Gyarados, Hippowdon, Lilligant-Hisui, Moltres, Oricorio-Pom-Pom, Revavroom, Salamence, Slither Wing, Thundurus, Volcanion, Yanmega, Zapdos-Galar, Zoroark-Hisui
Gained: +6
Blissey, Goodra-Hisui, Indeedee, Ninetales-Alola, Ribombee, Torkoal
NU 2024-2026 net: -16
Lost: -25
Cetitan, Cloyster, Cresselia, Deoxys-Defense, Diancie, Feraligatr, Gallade, Gastrodon, Iron Thorns, Krookodile, Lucario, Lycanroc-Dusk, Magnezone, Mienshao, Muk-Alola, Noivern, Oricorio-Pom-Pom, Oricorio-Sensu, Porygon-Z, Quagsire, Registeel, Slowbro, Talonflame, Torterra, Umbreon (-25)
Gained: +9
Araquanid, Barraskewda, Chansey, Cinccino, Indeedee, Ninetales-Alola, Overqwil, Reuniclus, Torkoal
PU 2024-2026 net: -25
Lost: -30
Altaria, Articuno-Galar, Bellibolt, Braviary, Bronzong, Decidueye, Dudunsparce, Duraludon, Flamigo, Gastrodon, Gligar, Goodra, Grafaiai, Heracross, Houndstone, Inteleon, Kilowattrel, Meloetta, Oricorio-Sensu, Raikou, Scrafty, Scream Tail, Scyther, Slowbro-Galar, Staraptor, Tauros-Paldea-Aqua, Thwackey, Tornadus, Toxtricity, Wo-Chien
Gained: +5
Amoonguss, Galvantula, Ninetales-Alola, Torkoal, Typhlosion-Hisui
ZU 2024-2026 net: -15
Lost: -24
Lost: Alcremie, Avalugg-Hisui, Bellossom, Bombirdier, Braviary, Bruxish, Cramorant, Decidueye-Hisui, Dudunsparce, Electrode-Hisui, Floatzel, Grafaiai, Hitmonlee, Hoopa, Mismagius, Oricorio-Sensu, Palossand, Porygon2, Qwilfish, Qwilfish-Hisui, Rhydon, Thwackey, Venomoth
Gained: +9
Brute Bonnet, Froslass, Hitmontop, Lycanroc, Minior, Rotom-Mow, Torkoal, Venusaur, Whimsicott (+9)
Sadly, a lot of the tiers have suffered even more than I'm outlining here. I counted drops that have little to no impact on a tier, so Torkoal, Ninetales-Alola, Araquanid, and other Pokemon that didn't make usage in the tiers they dropped to are actually making lower tiers look like they got off better. I'm also excluding Pokemon that dropped and ended up being banned or rising back up from this analysis even though they do have effects on usage stats and often occupy keystone spots in tiers and stats. Gen 9 DLC2 going on for a year longer than Gen 8 DLC2 did a number on the lower tiers.
Present
It's pretty clear to see that
this pattern has not stopped, and it will continue to cause upheaval over the next nine month period
unless there's a change to the current tiering policy.
Lower tiers have more to lose, and this is even with the buffers of BLs for higher tiers to draw from. Tyranitar's recent rise to OU risks driving more interest in Excadrill, a long-term top tier UU Pokemon that came very close to moving from UU to OU in the January 2026 shifts. Excadrill was the type of Pokemon whose potential rise helped mobilize the Sword and Shield tiering policy on freezing rises in the first place. If anything justifies implementing a freeze for the sake of stability, it really should be staples like UU Excadrill. Considering UU is the tier least impacted by the tiering vacuum, it should also be clear that freezing rises would be a stabilizing avenue for all the other lower tiers.
How many more tier shifts need to happen where lower tiers get their staples taken? Do we need to keep going until every RU Hippowdon or PU Goodra gets snapped up? How many more times do we need to see Scizor, Slowbro-Galar, or Brute Bonnet play jumprope with the tier cutoffs? It's tiring seeing two of RU, NU, PU, and ZU have to go through these painful cycles every three months. There's the rises that upend a tier, contentious quickban slates that were already attempting to balance between tournament schedules and playerbase opinions (forget about surveying regularly outside of OU), suspects in the period after quickbans, and then the dread of projected rises upsetting lower tiers more.
Multiple users have already spoken up about how this affects things like motivation, tournament and forum interest, and site work, and this is already a difficult thing to be open about because there's stigma surrounding discussion of things like burnout and demotivation, especially in competitive settings. This is compounded on the existing issues that current gen tiering has, but we don't have to choose make it harder on ourselves.
Right now, SV is also in a more unstable spot tiering-wise than in SS. There were only 5 tier shifts in SS between the first 3-month usage tier shifts (April 2021) and the last tier shifts with unfrozen rises (April 2022), while SV has had 7 (from July 2024 to January 2026) and counting with no freezing forecasted. Unless something changes, the vacuum is only going to grow even worse than it already is.
Future
Scarlet and Violet and its DLC2 era is going to be actively tiered for longer than any other recent format, and we've seen just how much of an effect that 9 months or 3 tier shifts can have on the whole of lower tiers. Things are not looking like they are going to get better without some kind of intervention in the tiering system.
The generation stretching out means that it's also having a longer period of lower ladder activity and lower ladder quality, which is relevant to tiering. If it's a concern that ladder quality is declining in the gen to the point that usage is no longer a good or accurate tool for rising Pokemon from lower tiers, then the response should be to change tiering policy to account for that. I know others in this thread have gone into topics like bots and "bad actors". Even though I support reforming those aspects of the tiering system, neither of those avenues address the subject of this thread, which is that rises are happening with greater frequency, regardless of Braviary going from ZU to NU.
Right now, the way that tiering is set up is poised to make the end of SV unnecessarily extra challenging for tiering councils, playerbases, and site creators who support lower tiers. Putting off dealing with SV's tiering issues does a disservice to lower tiers, especially if they're having to look into tiering action after the Generation ends (looking at both of you, SS PU and ZU, and they could have been even worse with rises in the equation).
The way that tiering is done should serve lower tiers, not the other way around.
In my last post, I suggested that rises and drops could be decoupled for current gen tiering, but tiering in SV lower tiers is reaching a point that I think it's better just to implement last gen's freeze policy than to come up with a better system for tiering on the spot. If we end up seeing some kind of new format release before the end of the year (already making SV 4 years old and longer-lived than any other format), then freezing rises is going to give lower tiers their best opportunity to stabilize before activity and interest decline even further.
If nothing is done, then you can expect to see the same pattern of destabilizing rises go on. Scizor or Blissey or something else can keep threatening to go back to OU, UU could potentially give up Excadrill and Hydrapple, and since there's about a net loss of 5 Pokemon per tier that can be expected, these guesses might not even cover what actually happens. NU, PU, and ZU can keep looking forward to tier shifts where top tiers leave, quickban slates, and constant moaning about suspect tests.
Tl;dr: Freeze rises from SV lower tiers, look for more ways to reform usage-based tiering, and hope that February's stats aren't dire.
