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Official Smogon Tournament XXII - Commencement
- Thread starter goldmason
- Start date
hi im a solid 3k pick pls buy me
Alrighty, given that I was the one that begged for this to be a thing, I should probably justify this thread's existence. I absolutely hate that Smogon doesn't seed tournaments; that's pretty ludicrous if you're familiar with like any other competitive activity, and the result is that tournaments here are really punishing for established players and makes it so that, from a spectator's perspective, playoffs are typically less compelling. I'm not here to spend a post complaining, though. My project here is simple: if I was to seed this tournament myself, how would I do it? Now, typically it's just the highest seeds that are seeded, because for most entrants there's essentially zero data. Maybe you could just seed the top 32? Top 128? Not sure, but I am picking the insane route. I'm seeding the whole bracket.
- Note: this is not a prediction post, both because doing so without knowing how the bracket will go is a little silly and because this formula isn't designed to do it.
- Anyone making predictions here is probably heavily weighing current form, recent improvements, grasp of the current meta, present support, etc etc, and by design this isn't what my formula does.
- if you think that seeding should care mostly about more recent results (like last year, which is how tennis does it, or like Smash tournaments where the last few months of results really matter), that's fine. That's not how I did it, I just don't think that anyone plays enough tournament games each month for that to be helpful.
- This is backwards-facing, on the basis that seeding should most sensibly be based on prior accomplishments than as an estimate of future performance.
- I have a few checks to avoid overranking players who just show up for every tournament and compile a bit of value each time without ever going deep (because nobody would consider those players serious threats to win the whole thing), but there's still more value placed to longevity than a power rankings would probably make.
- By design, this only includes SV OU results. If you want to yell at me to say that I am underrating bbeeaa or M Dragon or whatever, I don't care. Make your own seeding. I'm tired. I want to go play more Ace Attorney.
Tier 0.5:
Tier 1:
These players all have zero results that I could find. Some of these players are probably ladder heroes, some of them probably have OUFL results that I didn't count because the OUFL sheet isn't formatted in a way that makes my life easy, some probably have results in other tiers. There are an awful lot of OU forum mains here. Hope some of them exceed expectations!
Tier 2:
These seeds are assigned to players with no SV OU results, but who have either made an official individual playoffs or have sheet games in other tiers. This list includes a few SPL starters (Skyrio, Corazan, Endill, NoName6293), a few SCL starters this past year (Esteb4n, emoxu9, FlamPoke, MADARAAAA), a few ribbon holders, a few players with deep trophy runs, a few historically noteworthy players, etc. If you want to bet on any of them just based on talent, that's fair.
Tier 3:
These players show up in the stats I collected on a limited basis, mostly STour livetours and some mid records in subforum tours, without breaking 0 points in my formula.
Tier 4:
These players all have a couple points in my formula. We're on the outskirts of interesting now; top 256 is probably the furthest back you could seed without it reading like a shitpost. More SPL/SCL starters, including one current SV OU starter in watashi, another player I wouldn't be shocked to see end up in SV in Gondra, and some players with extremely dominant recent results in other tiers (etern, Void). Plus, Masters semifinalist zinnias.
Tier 5:
None of these players have big results in SV OU or anything, but we're starting to see players for whom a deep run wouldn't be shocking. tier's played a sheet game in SV OU this SPL, Galatina's done so recently, and now we're getting to a level where you might recognize most of these players even if you're not closely tapped into SV results.
Tier 6:
Okay, some perspective is probably appreciated here. Leroipolux is here by making 3rd place at OU Fall Seasonal this year and then winning a game in Circuit Playoffs. Eoward is 4-2 in WCOP in the tier (for Belgium). This is also the realm that top 64 at a past OST will get you; see M Dragon or Xurkiyee for an example. If you want to quibble with the relative valuations, fine. There are a few players who would probably rank better if you're just looking at recent results (Dugtrio Is Broken, Mister McLovin, for instance). The gaps are still pretty small here.
Tier 7:
A bunch of these players do in fact have solid recent OST runs: this is where top 32 gets you (JojoOui, KeshBa54, Mrbanana45, mrfraud, etc), and D4 Repertoire even made top 16 last year. Plague is the first SV OU SPL starter so far that I'd actually predict to go even. That said, though, the differences between this tier and the last (and honestly the one before that too) are pretty incremental. The gap in my formula between Fakee at 97th and Ruft at 128th is the same as Ruft and Mannuraj at 161st.
Tier 8:
Okay, here's where the separation starts. There's a sizable gap in my formula between 87th and 86th, with RichardMillePlain notably getting there with a pair of OLT Swiss qualifications. Kate, Maverick Shooters, kDCA, Suzuya, I think are all reasonable teamtour starters in the tier. Malekith has a bajillion past playoffs and unlike M Dragon he has a not-insignificant number of sheet games in SV OU specifically. I don't think there's an obvious contender here to actually win the tournament, though.
Tier 9:
Let's take a look. A bunch of players here have individual top 16s; MRH, Mattz_, Originality, Rumble, they're all getting here from the most recent OLT. This is where you see a bunch of highly accomplished players who've dabbled in this tier but whose greatest contributions remain in other tiers: MDB, bbeeaa, blunder, marcop. You even have an OST finalist here in Stellar Flares. I would say this is the point where actual championship contention starts for me; none of these are my personal picks for the tour, but there are a few players here who wouldn't be shocking winners.
Tier 10:
This is where the SV OU teamtour fixtures start. The previous tier probably has bigger names, but most of the names in this tier are players that get drafted for basically every official tour to play SV. I'm not sure how many names here have trophy upside, but I think basically every name here is someone who could reasonably make top 16, and if they go any further then you start thinking about the future upside.
Tier 11:
Big gap before and after. These are mostly players with a high volume of solid results; crying, SoulWind, and Finch especially play just about everything and consistently do solidly, and while I think they'd all rank lower for me if I was trying to estimate championship odds, for these purposes I think it seems right for them to be just outside of the top 16. ACR1 benefits here from the relatively gentle decay formula I have for pre-2025 results.
Tier 12:
DugZa and Xrn are a bit of a proof of concept here; they've each made semis in this tour recently. DAHLI quietly ranks all the way up at 3rd in the component of this formula that measures volume of teamtour results in the tier; only two other players playing in this tournament have more SV OU sheet wins. Rubyblood, meanwhile, has multiple deep OST runs and an OLT playoff. I'd put them all towards the middle of the SV OU pool in SPL, so this sounds about right.
Tier 13:
Are you shocked to see Kebab mlml rank this highly? Alongside a pair of SV OLT winners and another two finalists? I don't think it'd be wrong to put him lower, sure, but I'm not messing with the formula again, and besides, he's 22-13 on the sheet in this tier, along with an OLT quarterfinal! I think this ranking does underrate zS, who looks absolutely unstoppable right now, but I think it's okay for seeding to be slower to respond to improvement than PRs.
Tier 14:
You know, as I was figuring out my formula, I was trying to figure out whether it seemed obviously wrong if Vert wasn't the top seed. If this was just based on championship probability, I'd have more of a problem with it; I did spend an awful lot of words during OLT talking about how Vert felt unstoppable. Nobody really comes close to him in terms of dominating every individual he plays, but he also only has 6 SV OU sheet wins; you have to go down to Dasmer at 26th in this formula to find someone with fewer. It's an especially interesting contrast with mind gaming, maybe the most dominant player in the history of SV OU teamtours, and quietly Nat's getting close; 25-8 and 22-9 respectively. Lastly, since last SPL, Fusien has an OST trophy, an OLT playoff, a 5-1 WCOP, and a 6-3 SCL; he's been maybe the most dominant player in the tier over the past year.
Tier 15:
This is not actually reflective of who I'd pick as my personal favourite for the tour (because I don't want to jinx until like top 16). But for this formula, which is more meant to reflect past accomplishment rather than to predict the future, Storm Zone has a massive lead. The gap between 1st and 2nd is similar to the gap between 2nd and 7th. How? Well, this formula calls Storm Zone the second-most successful player in official SV OU individuals, after Vert; he's qualified for all three OLT iterations and made quarterfinals once, he racked up a ton of points in SV livetours in STour 37, and of course, he picked up the OST trophy. But whereas Vert's teamtour record is much more modest (as is the case to varying extents for Fusien and clean), Storm also ranks in the top 5 in my seeding formula in teamtour results; the only players playing in this tournament who are positive on the sheet in SV OU with more games played than Storm Zone are lax, Ewin, and DAHLI. Combine that with a few circuit playoff wins for good measure, and that's how you get this placement.
Here's the top 32 for anyone curious, with the point totals that fed the formula:
And just for fun, here's the hypothetical top 32 bracket if seeding actually was in place (and if everyone won):
How did I do it? Well, I took every single official tournament in SV (OST 2023-2025, OLT 2023-2025, SV STour livetours 2023-2025, SPL 2023-2025, WCOP 2023-2025, SCL 2023-2025), and then a bunch of unofficial tournaments (OUPL 2023-2025, OU Fall Seasonal 2023-2025, OU Spring Seasonal 2023-2025, OU Circuit Playoffs 2023-2025). I then recorded all of the teamtour results from these tours and a bunch of the individual tour results (OLT Swiss + playoffs, Circuit playoffs, Seasonal top 16s, OST top 128 (!!) and STour participants with points in SV livetours (!!!). I decided which cutoffs I consider to be actually valuable (so for instance, how many points you need in SV livetours before I start counting value, what record you need in different teamtours to start counting value, etc). Once there, I applied a bunch of formulas to scale them against each other, and then added them up.
Out of the 1029 players that showed up for me as having signed up for the first round, 317 have enough prior accomplishments in SV OU to show up in this formula. Another 94 have subforum teamtour results/SV livetour results that showed up here, but not enough to score above 0 on the seeding formula. That leaves 617 players for whom I have essentially no past results for. A lot of these are new users! (Not all of them; in fact, there's actually two players with five-digit user IDs in this tournament who doesn't have enough past results to show up in my filters at all).
Out of the 1029 players that showed up for me as having signed up for the first round, 317 have enough prior accomplishments in SV OU to show up in this formula. Another 94 have subforum teamtour results/SV livetour results that showed up here, but not enough to score above 0 on the seeding formula. That leaves 617 players for whom I have essentially no past results for. A lot of these are new users! (Not all of them; in fact, there's actually two players with five-digit user IDs in this tournament who doesn't have enough past results to show up in my filters at all).
- Note: this is not a prediction post, both because doing so without knowing how the bracket will go is a little silly and because this formula isn't designed to do it.
- Anyone making predictions here is probably heavily weighing current form, recent improvements, grasp of the current meta, present support, etc etc, and by design this isn't what my formula does.
- if you think that seeding should care mostly about more recent results (like last year, which is how tennis does it, or like Smash tournaments where the last few months of results really matter), that's fine. That's not how I did it, I just don't think that anyone plays enough tournament games each month for that to be helpful.
- This is backwards-facing, on the basis that seeding should most sensibly be based on prior accomplishments than as an estimate of future performance.
- I have a few checks to avoid overranking players who just show up for every tournament and compile a bit of value each time without ever going deep (because nobody would consider those players serious threats to win the whole thing), but there's still more value placed to longevity than a power rankings would probably make.
- By design, this only includes SV OU results. If you want to yell at me to say that I am underrating bbeeaa or M Dragon or whatever, I don't care. Make your own seeding. I'm tired. I want to go play more Ace Attorney.
Tier 0.5:
I didn't rank the substitutes. I started making this right when week 1 came out. Sue me. I never calculated where Mako or One Last Kiss would rank so idk man they get treated like bottom seeds.
Tier 1:
Ara, cescken, C and E, Nuxl, jam, Magcargo, sunny, Scizivire, Lameflame, BlueLobster, Firenix, Abso, SHSP, spoo, Steez Ibanez, BIG WILL, Starfox., blinkboy, EG Jhonx~, besudo, hybone, Wincon, Bongi, Einstien74, yandaud, Wubben, Bad Player, Joaf, AlejanDraco, Thor, Elian, Duko, mayo, Bluxio, A1Gallade, King Billu, Failbor, queso, CarTulo, neomon, Eledyr, jcbc, Sk3no, ILSB, Terracotta, Sakharu, l'habitat, leo568, Concept, Phin22, rylon, Steam Buns, Atha, Zarakro, Sky Master11, SBPC, Fragments, Oculars, lawlpaca, giove97, Kykz, StreaMoustache, Iguana, porcupine21, Laz_y, Trognon, Tarre25, 658Greninja, aminita, Srita Kaguya, Mkns1070, Estuardo19, Hyperium1233, yunino, Bomb21XD, Yuudachi0811, shnowshner, earthflax, SHRAIDER, Sheik :, rubycandy, Peachy._., pannu, Flareblitzkreig, Indulge in dreams, serperiorr, YoruNoxx, Cielau, Osake, X-Wing, bring it on, CaptainEikichi, Mollymiltoast, SDK03, Hoennseptile, 8truc, Mok3s, SHONE, Kayzn, AmericanPi, needle on top, Rubmv_, DeCurry, agentkeval, VerySuboptimal, Asurah, Greentea570, Suuicunee, Iride, Jeanmarc07, jb291, Ack3641Ack, frogfacts, LudwigFrog, JaiveonZane, lrodher, Adelynn, aditya1729, bydy, Wicked.ink, Haruk4, lettuce, rock バンド, Ziyeh, SammyCe123, Hydra_Y21, Vyluda, Autistic Soviet, ghostlike, AmoghOp, sappheiros, The Hisui Region, Runo, AgencyIsOwn, M1n0j, Tamamo, blooclipse, alusa, Ryus0ken, Arpitraj1, bricknermon, Pudistours, Genhui, stratdkt, Pichiu, Tricknology, lemonstre1, viivian, Rhik, Josepharas1, Yassuh, Aln, Ea-Nasir, Zachimations, Lightniong, eliana., pokem1399, poopawmcgee, Dusk, Sanos, BaitWiz, AlphaQ, sundays, txlix, destroyer13936, CheetosFlaminHot4, Jhavichuela, sleid, Mati R, RoyalNGR, Genesis77, Remake, Arcanine1929, seth, jscurf, TGK, UBD Yamoshi, OhioGengar, Sanesa8724, BABIGURL3000, xzeroxman, Toxinalpaca, LogIce, Slowpoke Fan, yerdunc, eeriespell, scarletnetto, Defolgado, cicepece11, ManbaStrike15, Premonitions, 1yr, DaddyBuzzwole, Slaw Goodman, Don Bork, Trippo8, Ace98121212, Cluelessmagnet, Azluc On Top, P1k7, Cherry786, JeoZ, adpg.2007, Naraku Kirigiri, cala_aa, deviously, NoobishTrainerJoe, glowbrogang, GUZOT, Medasus, jus, kriegueur, Kanha Greninja, matte, Venom36076, GhostlyPlanets, AquiIo, Maxymax300, Comett7778, yiyueweiming, AnglersDream, Betticus IV, StygianWorm, ThiaggoGatinho, Vaictador, brilliance1234, goldmason, vgc_flox, xieeee, Agera, viagra vibes, BrushyBoi, EPM, NFS15, John Dozo, Audio Peel, yfleshcatchy, JC98, 0Mileage, Kindyy, Quackborg, Durk27, Fraaxn, DeMarvelous, iPetBigfoot, CrispyFries, couchlaserparty, Heatranator, Swaay, Skmagnet, aLMArED!, chiefbeef1234, FaronAan, pengu, MarcusGruber, Boonty88, summer islands, Untrue_reality, DaviDXrt, cloud and book, Vxltarktimi, Me Empty, Daharan, Mozonite, treeshhhh, A Daydream, Ineros, MassiveScizorEnjoyer, Braga S2, paysa, GirlsSeeGhosts, meamPearl, Legitly, Forten, Derevien, suwuki, purbaj, GigaBytes7, ScizorDaGoat, slopcat, t.t, lasesino, SalvatoreSesso, Razachu, Hermitcrab, gfredu18, TAG2Y2, Cryoxetic, MethMaster4546, ign27, July, frigid void, Dobesito, birqzz, Zerotwo., Wappy.kBs, big tony 2014, Nakoruru_XD, ambi_, Vapour, bytor19, Roaring Moonlight, luuanfps, mchaco, ohko by scald, HikawaNozomi, caitlstrick, tahatahat, Riruia, might drago, Forrest23567, Kapper, billclintonlol, akxhdwy, Kochu_shak, LimonPokefan, yfy, NAMAN07, Fdmw, VaporeonUser, LuizgamerXD, LucioCerra, Vulpeenn, UltraSword, YouanMingxue, krwozen, zAllonso, Bastien_, Ne_emo, Jethin 10, Four Scores, no way iz, PHB11677, StFirezim, Are you vaping?, ArcadianSkies, Calmmind75, mipc, Cyrakii, fate1q, shuixin, LeBomboclats, angolano06, Aariceus, ZombieEyeZ, NinjaCaro, reversoral, Bey is Back, benladil, Pherusa, GrimtheImpy, Prateekkp, Dutchum, justbaguette, ScufY_, SpyOP, Click>Think, Praise The Salt, turnyacc, keji, sylvea, YaVR_1, karthik199729, Shmeckle, owuli, pinkstork, Sussaix, kamii, Bamdara, ShuckleEviolite, Noibaat500, MCOBSOK, Minissou, cars2uk, trickmasterz, ILoveGarchom, cute vn, churrojr, lealleallegal, Ooorange, miya_04, Tbp24, digo, Argon657, SouCarlos, no1better, avlavlavlavl, U_Quokka, literxlly, bello figo, Remnonc, boowomper, Viperino+1997, Blueflea, aeth, abreuolindo, IMMAAXX, ThauanXBB, qwqwqqw, lolmy, fradster3, Cold07, Quentinouuu, QuackingDuck, Originality Key, Regiboob, vwnz, kerbecs, Ykima, coolguy14604, t&a ninetales, Charcoal13, KazVgc, khoa260213, X2Muz, Symphonie, hxmo, MyPokemonRBad12, 3EyeQ, ysjssg, zmath, TanDaMan, average alcoholic, FR•MrPrince, Know treasure, GautSam, lcalvexx, henrysalt, SkyHighSundae, Alyosha, Blizz1243, FerroFodder, Strengthen, Macaco Socialista, JinF, Flora TK, Sepha, natooo0, KaoLum, ElPachirisuDelVGC, john89喜欢游戏, LifelessDx12, bApe, 4tup, Zong200, Akotelette, Beshoy, manwtfman, DMVortex38, EV15, merrypasta, Amiya, Ayushfcb, Freshee, Yash Vortex, God Koro, Omnisapien, Itoshiflwr, Deepify, ScribeofRevocis, Armesto20, ishan_j132932, Dvorek, talentea, hzf, yesterdaymister, MomanNoamm, bbnate, renaissance blaze, pawn of fate, Alemezzagialla, thiscantbesoul, Kanenokami, Markis348gamer, obssy, blaab, xikedih, light2005, shatoor0, G-vyle, Sparkelz, popcorn 312, manaphyfan23, Tomatag, eliana[]samia, Yves LeBron Uchiha, shores, KeylumW, pastelito, MAT 2012, Hossmanitan, lights_on, goxfxie, Kirnia, Lady Monica, pokemonlover56, SilverKnight3716, Oshuna, Rybak, Chomp2504, Rangerpsychedelic, Rexus0107, Skitter, rottx, Rats220, halzz, arul, renxø_pl, Firetheicenow, Drillacyy, PuPult, Ged_Muncher, adriji 12, Arathorias, Kameeeeee, Mzmarcos1, Mylo-san, Diamondnt_, Zapbone, CursedByHax, DiegoCelebiYGPT, MinimoT, Doggelindo, Angello7796, SaiderD4C, l4utaro, Strategy Therapy volt, KERPLUH, Glowking Agenda, SigmaGamer123321, il_billone, UB_blakk, JMC3, Gym Leader Adam, Kourado, luciano, Nahuelsiño, bh_33, juniorLOKE, Royal_Rebel_Prince, zekadopagodi, Axemastar, burrocosta, Booooooy, Throg62, ReInsight, lil broom boi, dynameow, HazzaC123, Morcas44, DJ nou, xBudgie, plarpin, samuel57x, Shemages, Devn07, thehi, ZePodre, marshmello302, Gangsta cold, Mortimer_D_Mouse, ghostfacewar1, blueberrybluey, bilal.tahiri, thiagottf, Dazthewiz, Bigboysneedlove2, Eevee Stevey, jack flabre gun, AC_Shade, Raichu95Lucario32, zeuscri20006, Zenith Red.
Tier 2:
Taylor, twash, aim, Fantasy, Staraptor, Sam, cb aaron judge, CyberOdin✝, Choice Specs, DD Joe, Lhions, Mix, trace, Confide, Portrait or Ruin, Skyrio, obii, Hybuyn, Ktütverde, Blui, Medeia, LBN, Corazan, sugar ovens, Ampha, 64 Squares, Hockey1, Endill, LORD SAGIS, MADARAAAA, Max2412, Esteb4n, Showl, PoseidonWrath, Nakano Nino, NoName6293, Rowlet69420, Hairoll, Ghoulish Champ, emoxu9, FlamPoke, zuzhouwawa, HSK7, SeaLife, eldids
Tier 3:
Satanic Beast, Zoyotte, luisin, urrgh, Phantom0rion, PixelBob, Edgar, RADU, Going Hard, Novax, OmBrArch, Goobius Caesar, Blox, Shaymin Sky, Gei, Azick, Glurakaiser, SidTheShuckle, Ashbala, jackuzzler, RoyalReloaded, JesusGP, toshimelonhead, NDK, Msousa, Dead by Daylight, beto cachinhos, JensenDale, VlTRIOL, NeoNaruto, Ske, Dwagon, SASAGEYO, SEROO, fiish, Ikra, gorgie, bocoaa, Clem, David Watts, spell, MahTheBot, terrors, Rio Vidal, Raahel, Milkylex, Cloudznn, Lord Ninjax, wvsp, HATS, KS7, Truthankamon, Horii, Call me PK, Zesty43, agenS, EC, White Atoq, MasterJ007, COALLA, Paycard, yuji, Lacks, Django, Glue, Abyssal Ruins, ASKOV, Noaa, Slikkles, benjaboynl, Bohrier, CloudyEJ, Amomeupaieminhamae, impersonxtor, Shiif, a fairy, Magician, Caesarr, Faless__, olivia, venesha, violet river, Falancies, ninth, Loneling, Zenadark, B0by, Sulfura28, Kokona Aoba, Simuxxie, Corperate n, Astoria, PigWarrior19, Angel tiopo
Tier 4:
Irene, Suikyo, DKM, veti, L Lawliet, seraphz, TDR, deaje, Mik3y, watashi, TyCarter, Alpha1013, Minatevis, Guille, Jefozz, colorednaem, davidTheMaster, lighthouses, rule, Chicos, TGA, Suhayb, Surimi, Sificon, RaJ.Shoot, Aso, lonk, OranBerryBlissey10, LB, Sagazinha, etern, Juseth sepulveda, Kev, The_App, Dhrabb, GabrieLopez, Toryyy, Souji/Akumu, darkman64, theaprilfool, Frailty, Sacri', xSuko, Mindnight, Brandonlee1, zRyan74, magma_man, Capidaxter, zinnias, Abele, rush of my blood, jyusaan, Gondra, Wanony, HSBT, Shadow079, ishtar, ZDen, Éric, Void, Wadley
Tier 5:
Incognition, im_m0rtal., RuanTheBuilder, Xiri, qways, reyscarface, Leftiez, Ryuji, ExguardiaN, damflame 3, mentalsoft, Winterbub, Celeste, d18l, doso749, Nichalho, duckycrater, A Welcome Guest, shuzoku, jetou, Vileman, Papillon, Tenebricite, fatBatman, Elfuseon, Miyoko, Peum, Aurella, velvet, Bouff, eclipseY, thajester, 1LDK, Analytic, Drud, Waci, BlazingDark, Airi, Azphiel, MadelinMorningstar, Uber45, Nowelle, Jojen, yone, StepC, Bundy300, zugubu royale, JUST ONE GALATINA, Drachenkeule, Charmflash, Amaske, Sachumberto, Larry, Javi, Gochan, robjr, Akaru Kokuyo, tier, DripLegend, Maxisc23, Pokemh, Lady Bug, Cicada, Stories
Tier 6:
entrocefalo, RZA, sky, Eoward, Critsomnia, Xurkiyee, Fernanch, skimmythegod, awyp, Mister McLovin, Career Ended, Huargensy, lolebruh, MemphisDepay, Luigi, Rasche, M Dragon, Dugtrio Is Broken, Laurel, Leni, JabbaTheGriffin, Dj Breloominati♬, Monai, LOOR, kiru, georgiethefirst, weird mon, Quinn, Enzonana., Wesleyy, TPH, Leroipolux, Mannuraj, Unamed, tko, Akeras, Vioz, Supraz, Metallica126, waffle04, devin, haxlolo, hex, wssi, Raceding, Hacker, Expulso, Shucklegigas, Jay, quacc, Soul King0, Nashrock, Envy, Scarfire, Jeidel, Kits, blank, Ayante, StreetBoom, Tempo di anguria, rarh2, someone random, TwentyTwan, glass shadows
Tier 7:
Sabella, Nemosse, B1Kharma, cactinie, Isza, Micciu, damien the genius, Ming549, Kaneki-san, Pinecoishot, Fakee, JojoOui, D4 Repertoire, SirPeanutCronch, Zentrox, Xyldaz, dex, UnzipsCrogre, Ikaishi, Setsu, Drifting, prav33n, Laroxyl, Skarpherim, GeniusX, Plague, KeshBa54, Mrbanana45, Typical_bastard, Fabriisse, egalvanc, mrfraud, Unstoppable1, Kyo, Silent Waltz, Corvikafka, Trickster7, Shiba, Exiline, Vulpix03, Fardin, Ruft
Tier 8:
Kate, JspKiC, MAVERICK SHOOTERS, kDCA, Luirromen, Suzuya, Meru, xdRudi.exe, Cow, Always!, LityL, DonSalvatore, mudd_skip, Zokuru, Yves Stone, elodin, fakenagol, sire clod, Raiza, MGdos16, Malekith, Arc, SpookyZ, RichardMillePlain
Tier 9:
Let's Rumble Shall We, Fc, MichaelderBeste2, Lazuli, Stellar Flares, freezai, Maxouille, Antonazz, TPP, Savouras, bbeeaa, blunder, Juyenfun, MRH1106, Patatexv, Mattz_, Axzel, JustFranco, Originality56, Luispeikou, Gilbert arenas, Eeveeto
Tier 10:
Niko, LpZ, Dasmer, emforbes, leng loi, Eternal Spirit, Garay oak, Thiago Nunes, Baddy, Pais, pdt, SupaGmoney, Ash KetchumGamer, shiloh, Hiko, FFK, heileone
Tier 11:
vk, crying, SoulWind, Mada, Finchinator, ima, ACR1
Tier 12:
DugZa, Xrn, Rubyblood, DAHLI
Tier 13:
Ewin, lax, Kebab mlml, Star, clean, Separation, zS
Tier 14:
mind gaming, Vert, Nat, Fusien
Tier 15:
Storm Zone
Here's the top 32 for anyone curious, with the point totals that fed the formula:
And just for fun, here's the hypothetical top 32 bracket if seeding actually was in place (and if everyone won):
1. Storm Zone vs 32. Baddy
2. mind gaming vs 31. Thiago Nunes
3. Vert vs 30. Garay oak
4. Nat vs 29. Eternal Spirit
5. Fusien vs 28. leng loi
6. Ewin vs 27. emforbes
7. lax vs 26. Dasmer
8. Kebab mlml vs 25. LpZ
9. Star vs 24. Niko
10. clean vs 23. ACR1
11. Separation vs 22. ima
12. zS vs 21. Finchinator
13. DugZa vs 20. Mada
14. Xrn vs 19. SoulWind
15. Rubyblood vs 18. crying
16. DAHLI vs 17. vk
2. mind gaming vs 31. Thiago Nunes
3. Vert vs 30. Garay oak
4. Nat vs 29. Eternal Spirit
5. Fusien vs 28. leng loi
6. Ewin vs 27. emforbes
7. lax vs 26. Dasmer
8. Kebab mlml vs 25. LpZ
9. Star vs 24. Niko
10. clean vs 23. ACR1
11. Separation vs 22. ima
12. zS vs 21. Finchinator
13. DugZa vs 20. Mada
14. Xrn vs 19. SoulWind
15. Rubyblood vs 18. crying
16. DAHLI vs 17. vk
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yeah okay
Entering Round 3 (top 256), we have seen 4 of my top 8 seeds eliminated, as well as 9 of my top 16 seeds, 15 of my top 32 seeds, 34 of my top 64 seeds, and 68 of my top 128 seeds. Just to give an answer to "how much is this just a bunch of coinflips": since two rounds have passed, I'll observe that top 64 seeds have a roughly 71% set winrate this tournament, and that number goes up to 74ish% if you exclude matches where they played against someone in my top 128. (this winrate also probably gets better if we exclude the act losses that claimed the likes of zS and crying, among others, but I don't feel like checking that right now). So if you take your average "top player" and match them up against your typical OST entrant (a mix of avid ladderers with no tour results and complete beginners), we've got a data point to suggest that they win about three-quarters of the time?
Let's dig into more specifics. With the round 2 losses of Storm Zone, Fusien, and Separation, our list of past SV tour winners still contending is just Vert and lax (and MichaelderBeste2 if you count STour, I guess). Finalists don't fare much better; since Stellar Flares, clean, and Ewin have been taken out, we're left with only lax and Antonazz (and if you count STour, Vert). Storm Zone was my formula's first seed, with Fusien and Ewin ranking fifth and sixth; they're joined in the early loss column by second-seed mind gaming. Just for fun, who are the top seeds remaining?
3. Vert. The most accomplished player of all time in SV individual trophy tours. OST winner, OLT finalist, STour finalist, OLT semifinalist, etc.
4. Nat. Best SV player of all time in SPL; 9-2 in 2023, 6-3 in 2025, 3-1 so far in 2026.
7. lax. OLT winner, and the winningest SV player of all time in SPL, with 19 wins.
8. Kebab mlml. Sneakily one of the best SV OU teamtour players of all time, with a 22-13 record and a pair of teamtour trophies.
9. Star. Best-known for other tiers, perhaps (73-51 on the sheet in many different tiers), but has an excellent 20-8 sheet record in SV OU.
10. clean. OLT finals and a quarterfinals under his belt. Will shout out the consecutive 6-2 OUPL seasons too, relevant or not.
16. DAHLI. Quietly tied for fourth all-time in SV OU sheet wins, behind oldspicemike, lax, and Attribute. Big drop-off in points in my formula here.
17. vk. Racked up these points here with an 11-7 sheet record in the tier, a good run in OST 2024, and strong SV livetours in STour 37.
I'll just mention here that the next eight would be 19. SoulWind, 20. Mada, 22. ima, 24. Niko, 26. Dasmer, 28. leng loi, 29. Eternal Spirit, and 30. Garay oak. I'll also mention that watashi, Let's Rumble Shall We, and Axzel are still alive in this tour and are 3-1 in SV in SPL, while MichaelderBeste2 and blunder are the only other remaining players in this tournament who already hold individual trophies.
As one final exercise: which players are the biggest losers from OST not having any seeding?
- 5. Fusien. Pretty brutal here. They got a first-round matchup against a player with 92 sheet games who's 12-5 in SV OU. They made it through that, and greeting them in the second round was a player with a 58% winrate over 103 sheet games. Sure, I wouldn't have flagged the second-round matchup against aim on its own, because the latter hasn't played sheet games since before SV was released and so didn't rank in my seeding, but it's undeniably rough bracket luck for the defending champ.
- 6. Ewin/28. leng loi. This is the only matchup so far in this tour where both players are clear SPL starters in SV OU. It's a matchup that, by my seeding, you'd expect to see in the 6th round, and I feel fairly confident that no matter what seeding formula you'd use, this matchup wouldn't happen until much, much later than the 2nd round in which it actually happened. Ewin was the obvious loser, but leng loi still had to play a second-round match in which she was the underdog.
- 37. shiloh. This one is less obvious because even though I seeded shiloh at 37th, I don't think it's a given that any seeding formula would do the same. They're 12-5 in SV OU on the sheet, but negative across 75 sheet games otherwise. That said, they still got rewarded for 17 good SV sheet games with a first-round matchup against the reigning champion, Fusien.
- 10. clean/36. Ash KetchumGamer. Both players are currently 2-2 in SV in SPL. It's a matchup you'd probably expect to happen in the 5th round, and instead we get it in the third.
- 16. DAHLI. They got a second-round matchup against Cow, a player who only places 71st on this formula because of a short track record, but who was dominant in OUPL and are now playing SV OU in SPL; you'd probably rank them a bit higher if you were focused on recent results. Crisis averted by Cow giving the win.
- 25. LpZ. The last player here that I think would clearly get seeded by anyone who tried. I'm sure they'd hope to get some top player privilege and avoid real opponents for at least a few rounds, but unfortunately 70. xdRudi.exe is a real opponent, and now LpZ is eliminated.
goat delivers. thank you goat