Welcome to the 2026-27 NBA Thread!
The NBA looks awfully different heading into 2026–27. Giannis in Miami, Kawhi back in Toronto, LeBron in Philadelphia, and several contenders getting their injured stars back have completely reshuffled the playoff picture. The East has more teams with a legitimate argument for a top seed than we've seen in years, while San Antonio and Oklahoma City lead a Western Conference full of teams trying to close the gap.
What's especially interesting to me is how many teams are banking on new additions or healthier seasons to take them to another level. There's certainly no shortage of talent throughout the league, but how many of these new combinations will actually work? Which teams can maintain winning lineups when their starters sit, defend consistently, and generate decent offense when their first option gets taken away?
I've always been more comfortable trusting coaching, depth, and established systems than assuming the most talented rosters will automatically win the most games. There are plenty of teams with tremendous upside, but sustaining that over 82 games is an entirely different story.
My 2026–27 NBA Season Predictions
The NBA looks awfully different heading into 2026–27. Giannis in Miami, Kawhi back in Toronto, LeBron in Philadelphia, and several contenders getting their injured stars back have completely reshuffled the playoff picture. The East has more teams with a legitimate argument for a top seed than we've seen in years, while San Antonio and Oklahoma City lead a Western Conference full of teams trying to close the gap.
What's especially interesting to me is how many teams are banking on new additions or healthier seasons to take them to another level. There's certainly no shortage of talent throughout the league, but how many of these new combinations will actually work? Which teams can maintain winning lineups when their starters sit, defend consistently, and generate decent offense when their first option gets taken away?
I've always been more comfortable trusting coaching, depth, and established systems than assuming the most talented rosters will automatically win the most games. There are plenty of teams with tremendous upside, but sustaining that over 82 games is an entirely different story.
My 2026–27 NBA Season Predictions
Eastern Conference Predictions — 2026–27
Tier 1: The Contenders
1. Boston Celtics (54–28)
Boston won 56 games with a top-five offense and defense despite Tatum missing the first 62 games. That's a pretty convincing endorsement of Mazzulla's system, and I don't see much reason to expect that to change. Losing Brown is significant, and I don't expect a 36-year-old Paul George to replace everything he provided. But with Tatum returning, Robinson anchoring the frontcourt, and White/Pritchard already comfortable running the offense, there's not much this team needs to figure out. I can see New York or Detroit finishing first, but I trust Boston's ability to sustain winning basketball over 82 games slightly more.
2. New York Knicks (53–29)
The defending champions have the advantage of returning almost everyone who made them successful. Brunson, KAT, Anunoby, Bridges and Hart already know how to play together, and their 53 wins last season were actually a little underwhelming compared to their scoring differential. Losing Robinson hurts defensively, especially with KAT's deficiencies on that end, and Drummond isn't going to replace his mobility. But there's too much continuity, shooting and offensive creation for me to envision a significant drop. I'm not necessarily predicting another championship run, but I have a hard time seeing this group getting much worse. Boston gets the slight edge because I trust its defense a little more.
3. Detroit Pistons (52–30)
I don't buy the idea that Detroit's 60-win season was a fluke. Their +8.2 net rating was legitimate, Cunningham and Duren are still improving, and their interior dominance gave opposing teams problems all year. Losing Stewart, Harris and LeVert is significant, particularly defensively, but I do like Collins and Isaiah Joe addressing some of their offensive spacing issues. The question is whether Detroit can maintain that defensive intensity with a different supporting cast. I expect some regression with how much stronger the East has become, but that's not the same as expecting them to fall off. They're still a contender, and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish ahead of either Boston or New York.
Tier 2: Strong Playoff Teams
4. Toronto Raptors (50–32)
I'm pretty bullish on Toronto this year. They already had a top-five defense and one of the best transition offenses in basketball before adding Kawhi, who addresses arguably their biggest offensive weakness. When the game slowed down, Toronto struggled to generate efficient looks, and there aren't many players better suited to fixing that than Leonard. I especially like his fit alongside Barnes, Quickley and Barrett more than the previous arrangement with Ingram. Obviously, we're talking about Kawhi, so availability is always going to be a what if. I'm projecting around 60 games, not 82. If they can get that out of him, I don't see why Toronto couldn't finish with home court in the first round.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (49–33)
Cleveland should have another excellent offense with a full season of Harden next to Mitchell, Mobley and Allen. Having two of the best pick-and-roll partners in basketball should make Harden's job considerably easier, and Watson brings more athleticism and scoring on the wing. What concerns me is the defense. Wade was far more impactful than his box score suggested, and I'm not convinced Watson is an upgrade on that end. Add the departures of Strus, Ellis and Nance Jr., and Cleveland suddenly has fewer dependable defensive combinations. There's certainly enough offensive firepower here to finish first in the East again. I just don't think the roster is necessarily better than last year's 52-win group, particularly defensively.
6. Miami Heat (48–34)
Giannis and Bam might be the most intimidating defensive frontcourt in basketball. Add Spoelstra into the mix, and I have a difficult time imagining Miami not having one of the best defenses in the league. They also did a decent job surrounding those two with shooting through Thompson, Hardaway Jr. and Portis.
My concern is how this all comes together offensively. Giannis and Bam both do their best work around the paint, and Miami sacrificed quite a bit of perimeter creation to make this happen. I'm not all too worried about their transition offense, but what happens when teams pack the paint and force their shooters to beat them? There's a scenario where the defense is so dominant that none of this matters much in the regular season. I'm just not convinced the halfcourt offense will be consistent enough to make them a 55-win team.
7. Indiana Pacers (47–35)
I refuse to put much stock into Indiana's 19-win season with Haliburton out. This team won 50 games and reached the Finals the year before, and Carlisle still managed to generate decent offensive looks last season despite having nowhere near the same personnel. Now Haliburton returns alongside Siakam and Nembhard, with Zubac providing a much-needed presence at center. I expect Indiana's offense to look considerably closer to the team that made the Finals.
So why only seventh? I trust Cleveland's individual scoring talent a little more, while Miami should have a higher defensive ceiling. That's really all that separates them for me. Indiana could easily finish ahead of both, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them comfortably secure a top-six seed.
Tier 3: Playoff and Play-In Competition
8. Orlando Magic (46–36)
Orlando won 45 games despite Wagner playing only 34 and Suggs appearing in 57. Presuming everyone stays mostly healthy, there's already a reasonable argument for improvement before accounting for any changes to their offense. Banchero, Bane and Wagner should be an excellent offensive trio, and this team still has the personnel to be one of the better defenses in basketball.
The question is how much Sweeney can improve the halfcourt offense. Orlando finished 18th offensively last season and has struggled with jump shooting for years, even when generating decent looks. I don't expect this group to suddenly become a top-five offense, but do they really need to? A league-average offense alongside their defense could be enough to push them into the top six. I'm optimistic about the new approach, but until we actually see it work consistently, I trust the offensive systems of the teams immediately above them a little more.
9. Philadelphia 76ers (46–36)
On paper, Philadelphia has one of the most ridiculous offensive combinations in basketball. Brown, LeBron, Maxey and Embiid should have no trouble generating offense when everyone is healthy. The problem is how often we'll actually see that lineup, and whether the defense can hold up around them.
Philadelphia won 45 games last season despite a negative scoring differential, and Embiid appeared in only 38 games. Even more concerning is that they finished 26th in defensive rebounding percentage with Drummond, who's now gone. Hukporti's Achilles injury makes things worse, leaving Bona with an awful lot of responsibility behind Embiid. I can easily envision this team having one of the best offenses in the league, but who's going to rebound and protect the paint consistently when Embiid sits?
There's a scenario where everyone stays relatively healthy and Philadelphia finishes considerably higher. I'm just not willing to bank on that after what we've seen over the last few seasons.
10. Atlanta Hawks (43–39)
Atlanta probably has more talent than a tenth seed should. Johnson, Daniels, Alexander-Walker and Okongwu already provide a strong foundation defensively, and adding Dort and Wiggins gives Snyder even more versatility. I especially like how many different defensive combinations they can throw at opposing teams.
My hesitation is on the offensive end. Daniels and Dort aren't particularly dependable floor spacers, and I question how much Atlanta's favorable schedule during last season's late surge inflated expectations. There's certainly an argument they could finish higher, especially if Johnson continues improving offensively. I just trust the halfcourt offenses of the teams above them a little more. Atlanta could make this projection look awfully pessimistic, but in a crowded East, someone has to end up in the play-in.
11. Charlotte Hornets (39–43)
Charlotte is another team I have a difficult time projecting because of how much their roster has changed. They won 44 games last season with a +5.0 net rating, and their starting lineup was absolutely destroying opponents. Unfortunately, that lineup no longer exists.
LaMelo was the engine behind their offense, which scored 12.6 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Losing Bridges only compounds the playmaking problem. I like White, Schröder and Reid as additions, and Miller and Knueppel should continue developing into excellent players. But White isn't the same kind of floor general LaMelo was, and I'm not convinced Charlotte can replace that offensive creativity right away.
There's enough shooting, rebounding and defensive talent to remain competitive. I just think it'll take some time for them to establish a new offensive identity, especially with the early injury concerns.
Tier 4: Improving, but Not Yet in the Playoff Race
12. Washington Wizards (31–51)
Washington finally has enough established talent that I can't automatically pencil them in for 15 wins anymore. Trae should transform an offense that had almost no dependable floor organization last season, and adding Davis, Ayton and Dybantsa gives them considerably more size and offensive upside. Sarr also gets another year to develop, and there's enough young talent here to make things interesting.
The problem is availability. I'm projecting around 50 games from Trae and 41 from Davis, which would give them roughly 25 games together under a simple availability estimate. That's not nearly enough to erase the problems of a team that went 17–65 with the worst defense in basketball.
I can see Washington being considerably more competitive when both stars play, but what happens during the other 50-plus games? Thirty-one wins would already be a 14-game improvement. I think that's a reasonable expectation without assuming everything goes right.
Tier 1: The Contenders
1. Boston Celtics (54–28)
Boston won 56 games with a top-five offense and defense despite Tatum missing the first 62 games. That's a pretty convincing endorsement of Mazzulla's system, and I don't see much reason to expect that to change. Losing Brown is significant, and I don't expect a 36-year-old Paul George to replace everything he provided. But with Tatum returning, Robinson anchoring the frontcourt, and White/Pritchard already comfortable running the offense, there's not much this team needs to figure out. I can see New York or Detroit finishing first, but I trust Boston's ability to sustain winning basketball over 82 games slightly more.
2. New York Knicks (53–29)
The defending champions have the advantage of returning almost everyone who made them successful. Brunson, KAT, Anunoby, Bridges and Hart already know how to play together, and their 53 wins last season were actually a little underwhelming compared to their scoring differential. Losing Robinson hurts defensively, especially with KAT's deficiencies on that end, and Drummond isn't going to replace his mobility. But there's too much continuity, shooting and offensive creation for me to envision a significant drop. I'm not necessarily predicting another championship run, but I have a hard time seeing this group getting much worse. Boston gets the slight edge because I trust its defense a little more.
3. Detroit Pistons (52–30)
I don't buy the idea that Detroit's 60-win season was a fluke. Their +8.2 net rating was legitimate, Cunningham and Duren are still improving, and their interior dominance gave opposing teams problems all year. Losing Stewart, Harris and LeVert is significant, particularly defensively, but I do like Collins and Isaiah Joe addressing some of their offensive spacing issues. The question is whether Detroit can maintain that defensive intensity with a different supporting cast. I expect some regression with how much stronger the East has become, but that's not the same as expecting them to fall off. They're still a contender, and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish ahead of either Boston or New York.
Tier 2: Strong Playoff Teams
4. Toronto Raptors (50–32)
I'm pretty bullish on Toronto this year. They already had a top-five defense and one of the best transition offenses in basketball before adding Kawhi, who addresses arguably their biggest offensive weakness. When the game slowed down, Toronto struggled to generate efficient looks, and there aren't many players better suited to fixing that than Leonard. I especially like his fit alongside Barnes, Quickley and Barrett more than the previous arrangement with Ingram. Obviously, we're talking about Kawhi, so availability is always going to be a what if. I'm projecting around 60 games, not 82. If they can get that out of him, I don't see why Toronto couldn't finish with home court in the first round.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (49–33)
Cleveland should have another excellent offense with a full season of Harden next to Mitchell, Mobley and Allen. Having two of the best pick-and-roll partners in basketball should make Harden's job considerably easier, and Watson brings more athleticism and scoring on the wing. What concerns me is the defense. Wade was far more impactful than his box score suggested, and I'm not convinced Watson is an upgrade on that end. Add the departures of Strus, Ellis and Nance Jr., and Cleveland suddenly has fewer dependable defensive combinations. There's certainly enough offensive firepower here to finish first in the East again. I just don't think the roster is necessarily better than last year's 52-win group, particularly defensively.
6. Miami Heat (48–34)
Giannis and Bam might be the most intimidating defensive frontcourt in basketball. Add Spoelstra into the mix, and I have a difficult time imagining Miami not having one of the best defenses in the league. They also did a decent job surrounding those two with shooting through Thompson, Hardaway Jr. and Portis.
My concern is how this all comes together offensively. Giannis and Bam both do their best work around the paint, and Miami sacrificed quite a bit of perimeter creation to make this happen. I'm not all too worried about their transition offense, but what happens when teams pack the paint and force their shooters to beat them? There's a scenario where the defense is so dominant that none of this matters much in the regular season. I'm just not convinced the halfcourt offense will be consistent enough to make them a 55-win team.
7. Indiana Pacers (47–35)
I refuse to put much stock into Indiana's 19-win season with Haliburton out. This team won 50 games and reached the Finals the year before, and Carlisle still managed to generate decent offensive looks last season despite having nowhere near the same personnel. Now Haliburton returns alongside Siakam and Nembhard, with Zubac providing a much-needed presence at center. I expect Indiana's offense to look considerably closer to the team that made the Finals.
So why only seventh? I trust Cleveland's individual scoring talent a little more, while Miami should have a higher defensive ceiling. That's really all that separates them for me. Indiana could easily finish ahead of both, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them comfortably secure a top-six seed.
Tier 3: Playoff and Play-In Competition
8. Orlando Magic (46–36)
Orlando won 45 games despite Wagner playing only 34 and Suggs appearing in 57. Presuming everyone stays mostly healthy, there's already a reasonable argument for improvement before accounting for any changes to their offense. Banchero, Bane and Wagner should be an excellent offensive trio, and this team still has the personnel to be one of the better defenses in basketball.
The question is how much Sweeney can improve the halfcourt offense. Orlando finished 18th offensively last season and has struggled with jump shooting for years, even when generating decent looks. I don't expect this group to suddenly become a top-five offense, but do they really need to? A league-average offense alongside their defense could be enough to push them into the top six. I'm optimistic about the new approach, but until we actually see it work consistently, I trust the offensive systems of the teams immediately above them a little more.
9. Philadelphia 76ers (46–36)
On paper, Philadelphia has one of the most ridiculous offensive combinations in basketball. Brown, LeBron, Maxey and Embiid should have no trouble generating offense when everyone is healthy. The problem is how often we'll actually see that lineup, and whether the defense can hold up around them.
Philadelphia won 45 games last season despite a negative scoring differential, and Embiid appeared in only 38 games. Even more concerning is that they finished 26th in defensive rebounding percentage with Drummond, who's now gone. Hukporti's Achilles injury makes things worse, leaving Bona with an awful lot of responsibility behind Embiid. I can easily envision this team having one of the best offenses in the league, but who's going to rebound and protect the paint consistently when Embiid sits?
There's a scenario where everyone stays relatively healthy and Philadelphia finishes considerably higher. I'm just not willing to bank on that after what we've seen over the last few seasons.
10. Atlanta Hawks (43–39)
Atlanta probably has more talent than a tenth seed should. Johnson, Daniels, Alexander-Walker and Okongwu already provide a strong foundation defensively, and adding Dort and Wiggins gives Snyder even more versatility. I especially like how many different defensive combinations they can throw at opposing teams.
My hesitation is on the offensive end. Daniels and Dort aren't particularly dependable floor spacers, and I question how much Atlanta's favorable schedule during last season's late surge inflated expectations. There's certainly an argument they could finish higher, especially if Johnson continues improving offensively. I just trust the halfcourt offenses of the teams above them a little more. Atlanta could make this projection look awfully pessimistic, but in a crowded East, someone has to end up in the play-in.
11. Charlotte Hornets (39–43)
Charlotte is another team I have a difficult time projecting because of how much their roster has changed. They won 44 games last season with a +5.0 net rating, and their starting lineup was absolutely destroying opponents. Unfortunately, that lineup no longer exists.
LaMelo was the engine behind their offense, which scored 12.6 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Losing Bridges only compounds the playmaking problem. I like White, Schröder and Reid as additions, and Miller and Knueppel should continue developing into excellent players. But White isn't the same kind of floor general LaMelo was, and I'm not convinced Charlotte can replace that offensive creativity right away.
There's enough shooting, rebounding and defensive talent to remain competitive. I just think it'll take some time for them to establish a new offensive identity, especially with the early injury concerns.
Tier 4: Improving, but Not Yet in the Playoff Race
12. Washington Wizards (31–51)
Washington finally has enough established talent that I can't automatically pencil them in for 15 wins anymore. Trae should transform an offense that had almost no dependable floor organization last season, and adding Davis, Ayton and Dybantsa gives them considerably more size and offensive upside. Sarr also gets another year to develop, and there's enough young talent here to make things interesting.
The problem is availability. I'm projecting around 50 games from Trae and 41 from Davis, which would give them roughly 25 games together under a simple availability estimate. That's not nearly enough to erase the problems of a team that went 17–65 with the worst defense in basketball.
I can see Washington being considerably more competitive when both stars play, but what happens during the other 50-plus games? Thirty-one wins would already be a 14-game improvement. I think that's a reasonable expectation without assuming everything goes right.
Western Conference Predictions — 2026–27
Tier 1: Conference Favorites
1. San Antonio Spurs (59–23)
I'll do my best to be objective about San Antonio, but I don't know how much longer I can pretend Wemby isn't capable of being the best player in the league. The Spurs won 62 games last season, and there's still considerable room for improvement offensively. Fox, Castle and Vassell give them multiple ways to attack defenses, while Champagnie's shooting and rebounding fit incredibly well alongside Wemby. I especially like how much defensive pressure they can apply without having to sacrifice rim protection. Oklahoma City may have the better established system, but I believe San Antonio has another gear we've yet to fully see.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (57–25)
I'm not all too comfortable projecting Oklahoma City for only 57 wins after a 64-win season and a ridiculous +11 net rating. Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and Jalen Williams remain as good a young core as anyone has in the league. Daigneault has already established an incredibly effective system, and this team shouldn't have much difficulty maintaining its dominance. Losing Dort, Joe and Wiggins does take away some of the defensive versatility and shooting that made them so difficult to play against. Is it enough to drop seven games? Perhaps not. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished first again, but I'm banking on San Antonio's continued improvement to narrowly put them ahead.
Tier 2: Strong Playoff Teams
3. Houston Rockets (49–33)
Houston managed 52 wins last season without VanVleet, so I don't buy a significant drop-off now that he's returning. I thought their offense needed a floor general more than anything, and having him back should make life considerably easier for Durant, Şengün and Amen Thompson. Smart adds more defensive versatility, and Bogdanović gives them some much-needed shooting. The question is whether all this translates into a more consistent halfcourt offense. Houston has already demonstrated they can win through defense and rebounding. If they can improve the decision-making and get everyone involved offensively, there's no reason they can't win 50 games again. I have them slightly ahead of Denver because I trust Udoka's defensive personnel more.
4. Denver Nuggets (48–34)
It's difficult to project Denver below 50 wins when Jokić is still playing at this level. They won 54 games last season with one of the league's best offenses, and adding DeRozan gives them another player capable of creating his own shot. My concern is the defense. Losing Watson is a pretty significant blow to their perimeter versatility, and I'm not sure they have enough reliable defensive options around Jokić to compensate. The departures of Brown and Hardaway Jr. also change their bench considerably. I can see Denver having another spectacular offensive season, but whether they can get enough stops consistently is why I have them just behind Houston.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (46–36)
Minnesota is one of the more difficult teams for me to project. LaMelo next to Edwards sounds fantastic offensively, especially with how much Minnesota has struggled with turnovers and halfcourt decision-making in years past. The problem is what they gave up to make that happen. Randle and Reid provided a lot of frontcourt scoring and versatility, and I'm not convinced Kuminga can replace that production. Gobert and McDaniels should keep the defense competitive, but the minutes without Gobert concern me considerably more now. I have Minnesota ahead of the Lakers primarily because I trust their defensive foundation. How well LaMelo and Edwards share offensive responsibilities will determine whether this team has another gear.
6. Los Angeles Lakers (45–37)
I'm not too worried about the Lakers scoring with Luka and Reaves running the offense. What I am worried about is how quickly this newly constructed roster can get on the same page defensively. Losing LeBron is obviously significant, but Kessler, Grimes and Thybulle are exactly the kinds of additions they needed to address their defensive deficiencies. The Lakers only return around 42% of last season's minutes, which is an enormous amount of turnover for a team expecting to contend. I can see this group eventually becoming a really good team, but I don't expect everything to click immediately. Minnesota gets the edge because its defense is already established.
Tier 3: Playoff and Play-In Competition
7. Phoenix Suns (42–40)
Phoenix won 45 games last season, and I don't think they're significantly worse, but there's also not much reason for me to expect improvement. Booker remains an excellent offensive foundation, and Bridges and Kennard should provide additional scoring. Losing Allen and O'Neale hurts their wing versatility, while Mark Williams's injury puts more pressure on their young centers. I'm actually not all too worried about Ighodaro, who played surprisingly well without Williams last season. The bigger question is Jalen Green. He was extremely inefficient with the ball despite high usage, and Phoenix's offense barely improved when he played. If he becomes a more efficient complementary scorer, this team could easily finish higher. Until then, I think they're right around .500.
8. Portland Trail Blazers (41–41)
Portland has the defensive personnel to be a playoff team, but I'm not all too convinced about their backcourt situation. I'm not worried about Dame's availability nearly as much as I am about how he and Morant are going to coexist. Both are ball-dominant guards who aren't particularly strong defensively, and I'm skeptical Nori will separate them from the starting lineup even if it's clearly not working. Morant has played only 9, 50 and 20 games over the last three seasons. Ironically, his absence might actually make Portland better if it forces Nori to start Holiday alongside Dame, giving them a much more balanced backcourt. Clingan, Camara and Avdija provide a strong defensive foundation, but how much can they compensate for two smaller guards? There's enough talent here to make the playoffs. I'm just not convinced they'll have their best lineups on the floor consistently.
9. Dallas Mavericks (40–42)
I'm expecting Dallas to be considerably better than last season, and it mostly comes down to Kyrie. Their offense was abysmal without a dependable halfcourt creator, and asking a rookie Flagg to generate everything was never going to work consistently. Irving's return should make everyone more efficient, especially Flagg, who can spend more time attacking off the ball rather than creating difficult shots. I also like Gafford as a defensive center more than some people might, although Lively's injury makes their frontcourt depth questionable. Dallas won only 26 games last season, so I'm already projecting a substantial jump. If Kyrie stays healthy and Flagg takes another step, this team could easily jump Phoenix and Portland. I'm just not willing to bank on all of that happening.
10. Utah Jazz (35–47)
Utah should be considerably better offensively with Markkanen, George and Peterson, but I don't buy that Jackson automatically improves their defense with Kessler gone. Jackson is an excellent help defender, but he's not the same defensive anchor or rebounder Kessler is. Ideally, you'd want these two playing together rather than asking Jackson to replace him. Nurkić and Hayes can provide center minutes, but neither gives Utah the same rim protection and rebounding combination. I especially worry about Jackson's foul trouble and defensive rebounding if he's forced to play extended minutes at center. Utah already had one of the worst defenses in the league, and I'm not convinced they've adequately addressed it. Even 35 wins represents a 13-game improvement. I have a hard time projecting much higher without seeing considerable growth defensively.
Tier 4: Outside the Projected Play-In
11. Golden State Warriors (34–48)
Golden State is another team where the potential and the likely regular-season results are two different things. Curry is still capable of running an elite offense, and Kerr knows how to get the most out of his personnel. The problem is how many of these guys can actually stay on the floor. Curry played only 43 games last season, Butler is coming off an ACL injury, Porziņģis has his own health concerns, and Horford isn't getting any younger. That's an awful lot to depend on over 82 games. If Curry and Butler are healthy for most of the season, this projection will look ridiculous. I just find it difficult to assume that happens.
12. Memphis Grizzlies (33–49)
Memphis is essentially starting over, and I'm actually a little more optimistic about them than their roster overhaul might suggest. Jerome and Edey barely played last season, so getting those two healthy should immediately make them more competitive. Boozer is an interesting addition, and I like the collection of young talent they've put together with Coward, Stewart and Grant. Losing Morant and Jackson obviously changes everything about how this team plays. They're going to have to establish an entirely new offensive and defensive identity, which isn't something I expect to happen overnight. There's enough talent here to surprise people, but I'm not convinced they'll be consistent enough to challenge for the play-in.
13. New Orleans Pelicans (27–55)
New Orleans is a team I have a difficult time trusting for obvious reasons. Zion and Murphy are legitimately good offensive players, Mathurin should provide more attacking and scoring, and the younger guys have some upside. But how many seasons are we going to keep projecting this team based on what everyone could theoretically do when healthy? They won 26 games last season, and I don't see enough defensive improvement to suggest they're about to make some enormous jump. I like some of their individual pieces more than their record might suggest. Stay healthy, find some lineups that can actually defend, and maybe there's something here. Until then, I'm keeping expectations low.
14. LA Clippers (27–55)
The Clippers might be the strangest roster in the West. They've essentially replaced an entire winning team, but I don't think the talent they've assembled is nearly as bad as a 23-win projection would suggest. Garland and Ingram can both create offense, while Strus, Hachimura, Dick and Lopez give Lue enough options to put together some decent lineups. The problem is losing Kawhi, Harden and Zubac all at once. That's your offensive foundation, your best defensive player and your defensive anchor gone. I'm not convinced the new roster has enough defense or continuity to make up for all of that. Lue is a great coach, but there's only so much he can do with a team essentially starting from scratch. I have them tied with New Orleans, with the Pelicans getting the edge because of continuity.
Tier 1: Conference Favorites
1. San Antonio Spurs (59–23)
I'll do my best to be objective about San Antonio, but I don't know how much longer I can pretend Wemby isn't capable of being the best player in the league. The Spurs won 62 games last season, and there's still considerable room for improvement offensively. Fox, Castle and Vassell give them multiple ways to attack defenses, while Champagnie's shooting and rebounding fit incredibly well alongside Wemby. I especially like how much defensive pressure they can apply without having to sacrifice rim protection. Oklahoma City may have the better established system, but I believe San Antonio has another gear we've yet to fully see.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (57–25)
I'm not all too comfortable projecting Oklahoma City for only 57 wins after a 64-win season and a ridiculous +11 net rating. Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and Jalen Williams remain as good a young core as anyone has in the league. Daigneault has already established an incredibly effective system, and this team shouldn't have much difficulty maintaining its dominance. Losing Dort, Joe and Wiggins does take away some of the defensive versatility and shooting that made them so difficult to play against. Is it enough to drop seven games? Perhaps not. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished first again, but I'm banking on San Antonio's continued improvement to narrowly put them ahead.
Tier 2: Strong Playoff Teams
3. Houston Rockets (49–33)
Houston managed 52 wins last season without VanVleet, so I don't buy a significant drop-off now that he's returning. I thought their offense needed a floor general more than anything, and having him back should make life considerably easier for Durant, Şengün and Amen Thompson. Smart adds more defensive versatility, and Bogdanović gives them some much-needed shooting. The question is whether all this translates into a more consistent halfcourt offense. Houston has already demonstrated they can win through defense and rebounding. If they can improve the decision-making and get everyone involved offensively, there's no reason they can't win 50 games again. I have them slightly ahead of Denver because I trust Udoka's defensive personnel more.
4. Denver Nuggets (48–34)
It's difficult to project Denver below 50 wins when Jokić is still playing at this level. They won 54 games last season with one of the league's best offenses, and adding DeRozan gives them another player capable of creating his own shot. My concern is the defense. Losing Watson is a pretty significant blow to their perimeter versatility, and I'm not sure they have enough reliable defensive options around Jokić to compensate. The departures of Brown and Hardaway Jr. also change their bench considerably. I can see Denver having another spectacular offensive season, but whether they can get enough stops consistently is why I have them just behind Houston.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (46–36)
Minnesota is one of the more difficult teams for me to project. LaMelo next to Edwards sounds fantastic offensively, especially with how much Minnesota has struggled with turnovers and halfcourt decision-making in years past. The problem is what they gave up to make that happen. Randle and Reid provided a lot of frontcourt scoring and versatility, and I'm not convinced Kuminga can replace that production. Gobert and McDaniels should keep the defense competitive, but the minutes without Gobert concern me considerably more now. I have Minnesota ahead of the Lakers primarily because I trust their defensive foundation. How well LaMelo and Edwards share offensive responsibilities will determine whether this team has another gear.
6. Los Angeles Lakers (45–37)
I'm not too worried about the Lakers scoring with Luka and Reaves running the offense. What I am worried about is how quickly this newly constructed roster can get on the same page defensively. Losing LeBron is obviously significant, but Kessler, Grimes and Thybulle are exactly the kinds of additions they needed to address their defensive deficiencies. The Lakers only return around 42% of last season's minutes, which is an enormous amount of turnover for a team expecting to contend. I can see this group eventually becoming a really good team, but I don't expect everything to click immediately. Minnesota gets the edge because its defense is already established.
Tier 3: Playoff and Play-In Competition
7. Phoenix Suns (42–40)
Phoenix won 45 games last season, and I don't think they're significantly worse, but there's also not much reason for me to expect improvement. Booker remains an excellent offensive foundation, and Bridges and Kennard should provide additional scoring. Losing Allen and O'Neale hurts their wing versatility, while Mark Williams's injury puts more pressure on their young centers. I'm actually not all too worried about Ighodaro, who played surprisingly well without Williams last season. The bigger question is Jalen Green. He was extremely inefficient with the ball despite high usage, and Phoenix's offense barely improved when he played. If he becomes a more efficient complementary scorer, this team could easily finish higher. Until then, I think they're right around .500.
8. Portland Trail Blazers (41–41)
Portland has the defensive personnel to be a playoff team, but I'm not all too convinced about their backcourt situation. I'm not worried about Dame's availability nearly as much as I am about how he and Morant are going to coexist. Both are ball-dominant guards who aren't particularly strong defensively, and I'm skeptical Nori will separate them from the starting lineup even if it's clearly not working. Morant has played only 9, 50 and 20 games over the last three seasons. Ironically, his absence might actually make Portland better if it forces Nori to start Holiday alongside Dame, giving them a much more balanced backcourt. Clingan, Camara and Avdija provide a strong defensive foundation, but how much can they compensate for two smaller guards? There's enough talent here to make the playoffs. I'm just not convinced they'll have their best lineups on the floor consistently.
9. Dallas Mavericks (40–42)
I'm expecting Dallas to be considerably better than last season, and it mostly comes down to Kyrie. Their offense was abysmal without a dependable halfcourt creator, and asking a rookie Flagg to generate everything was never going to work consistently. Irving's return should make everyone more efficient, especially Flagg, who can spend more time attacking off the ball rather than creating difficult shots. I also like Gafford as a defensive center more than some people might, although Lively's injury makes their frontcourt depth questionable. Dallas won only 26 games last season, so I'm already projecting a substantial jump. If Kyrie stays healthy and Flagg takes another step, this team could easily jump Phoenix and Portland. I'm just not willing to bank on all of that happening.
10. Utah Jazz (35–47)
Utah should be considerably better offensively with Markkanen, George and Peterson, but I don't buy that Jackson automatically improves their defense with Kessler gone. Jackson is an excellent help defender, but he's not the same defensive anchor or rebounder Kessler is. Ideally, you'd want these two playing together rather than asking Jackson to replace him. Nurkić and Hayes can provide center minutes, but neither gives Utah the same rim protection and rebounding combination. I especially worry about Jackson's foul trouble and defensive rebounding if he's forced to play extended minutes at center. Utah already had one of the worst defenses in the league, and I'm not convinced they've adequately addressed it. Even 35 wins represents a 13-game improvement. I have a hard time projecting much higher without seeing considerable growth defensively.
Tier 4: Outside the Projected Play-In
11. Golden State Warriors (34–48)
Golden State is another team where the potential and the likely regular-season results are two different things. Curry is still capable of running an elite offense, and Kerr knows how to get the most out of his personnel. The problem is how many of these guys can actually stay on the floor. Curry played only 43 games last season, Butler is coming off an ACL injury, Porziņģis has his own health concerns, and Horford isn't getting any younger. That's an awful lot to depend on over 82 games. If Curry and Butler are healthy for most of the season, this projection will look ridiculous. I just find it difficult to assume that happens.
12. Memphis Grizzlies (33–49)
Memphis is essentially starting over, and I'm actually a little more optimistic about them than their roster overhaul might suggest. Jerome and Edey barely played last season, so getting those two healthy should immediately make them more competitive. Boozer is an interesting addition, and I like the collection of young talent they've put together with Coward, Stewart and Grant. Losing Morant and Jackson obviously changes everything about how this team plays. They're going to have to establish an entirely new offensive and defensive identity, which isn't something I expect to happen overnight. There's enough talent here to surprise people, but I'm not convinced they'll be consistent enough to challenge for the play-in.
13. New Orleans Pelicans (27–55)
New Orleans is a team I have a difficult time trusting for obvious reasons. Zion and Murphy are legitimately good offensive players, Mathurin should provide more attacking and scoring, and the younger guys have some upside. But how many seasons are we going to keep projecting this team based on what everyone could theoretically do when healthy? They won 26 games last season, and I don't see enough defensive improvement to suggest they're about to make some enormous jump. I like some of their individual pieces more than their record might suggest. Stay healthy, find some lineups that can actually defend, and maybe there's something here. Until then, I'm keeping expectations low.
14. LA Clippers (27–55)
The Clippers might be the strangest roster in the West. They've essentially replaced an entire winning team, but I don't think the talent they've assembled is nearly as bad as a 23-win projection would suggest. Garland and Ingram can both create offense, while Strus, Hachimura, Dick and Lopez give Lue enough options to put together some decent lineups. The problem is losing Kawhi, Harden and Zubac all at once. That's your offensive foundation, your best defensive player and your defensive anchor gone. I'm not convinced the new roster has enough defense or continuity to make up for all of that. Lue is a great coach, but there's only so much he can do with a team essentially starting from scratch. I have them tied with New Orleans, with the Pelicans getting the edge because of continuity.
2026–27 NBA Award Predictions
Most Valuable Player: Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)
I have San Antonio finishing first in the West, and I believe Wemby has a legitimate chance to establish himself as the best player in basketball this season. He's already the most impactful defensive player in the league, and his offense continues to develop. If he's putting up elite offensive numbers while anchoring one of the league's best defenses, I have a hard time seeing anyone building a stronger case. Shai and Jokić will certainly be in the conversation, but I'm banking on Wemby's two-way dominance separating him from the rest.
Rookie of the Year: Cameron Boozer (Memphis Grizzlies)
I like Darryn Peterson's scoring upside, but Boozer seems like the more NBA-ready player. His game is extremely polished for his age, and he doesn't need a ton of isolation possessions to make an impact. Memphis also has a relatively open offensive hierarchy after moving Morant and Jackson, which should give Boozer plenty of opportunities to score, rebound and facilitate. Peterson might lead all rookies in scoring, but he'll have to share touches with Markkanen, George and Jackson in Utah. I trust Boozer to put together the more complete and efficient rookie season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)
Wembanyama, and I don't think it's particularly close. His ability to protect the rim while covering so much ground defensively gives San Antonio an enormous advantage. Opposing offenses have to completely rethink how they attack the paint with him on the floor. As long as he stays healthy and meets the games requirement, I have a difficult time envisioning anyone else winning this award. Holmgren and Mobley are excellent defenders, but Wemby is simply operating on another level.
Most Improved Player: Brandon Miller (Charlotte Hornets)
LaMelo's departure opens up an enormous opportunity for Miller to become Charlotte's primary offensive option. He already averaged around 20 points last season, and I can see him taking another significant jump with more responsibility. The question is whether he can maintain his efficiency without LaMelo creating easy opportunities for everyone. I don't think simply increasing his scoring average will be enough. If Miller can improve as a playmaker while handling more offensive possessions, he has a compelling argument for this award. Charlotte may struggle as a team, but Miller could have a breakout year individually.
Sixth Man of the Year: Ajay Mitchell (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Oklahoma City lost quite a bit of perimeter depth with Dort, Joe and Wiggins departing, which should open up considerably more opportunities for Mitchell. He already demonstrated he can score efficiently and operate as a secondary ballhandler, and I expect Daigneault to give him an increased role off the bench. Playing on one of the best teams in basketball should help his case too. If Mitchell can maintain his efficiency with more minutes and offensive responsibility, I like his chances of winning this award.
Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra (Miami Heat)
It's honestly remarkable Spoelstra has never won this award considering how consistently he's gotten the most out of his rosters. Now he has an interesting challenge integrating Giannis alongside Bam without sacrificing too much offensively. The defensive possibilities are ridiculous, but I don't think the halfcourt offense will be nearly as easy to figure out. Miami sacrificed quite a bit of perimeter creation, so Spoelstra will have to find ways to generate efficient offense around two interior-oriented stars. If he can make this combination work and push Miami toward 50-plus wins, there's a strong argument he deserves the award. Carlisle and Mitch Johnson should be in the running as well, but I'm going with Spoelstra finally getting his recognition.
Most Valuable Player: Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)
I have San Antonio finishing first in the West, and I believe Wemby has a legitimate chance to establish himself as the best player in basketball this season. He's already the most impactful defensive player in the league, and his offense continues to develop. If he's putting up elite offensive numbers while anchoring one of the league's best defenses, I have a hard time seeing anyone building a stronger case. Shai and Jokić will certainly be in the conversation, but I'm banking on Wemby's two-way dominance separating him from the rest.
Rookie of the Year: Cameron Boozer (Memphis Grizzlies)
I like Darryn Peterson's scoring upside, but Boozer seems like the more NBA-ready player. His game is extremely polished for his age, and he doesn't need a ton of isolation possessions to make an impact. Memphis also has a relatively open offensive hierarchy after moving Morant and Jackson, which should give Boozer plenty of opportunities to score, rebound and facilitate. Peterson might lead all rookies in scoring, but he'll have to share touches with Markkanen, George and Jackson in Utah. I trust Boozer to put together the more complete and efficient rookie season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)
Wembanyama, and I don't think it's particularly close. His ability to protect the rim while covering so much ground defensively gives San Antonio an enormous advantage. Opposing offenses have to completely rethink how they attack the paint with him on the floor. As long as he stays healthy and meets the games requirement, I have a difficult time envisioning anyone else winning this award. Holmgren and Mobley are excellent defenders, but Wemby is simply operating on another level.
Most Improved Player: Brandon Miller (Charlotte Hornets)
LaMelo's departure opens up an enormous opportunity for Miller to become Charlotte's primary offensive option. He already averaged around 20 points last season, and I can see him taking another significant jump with more responsibility. The question is whether he can maintain his efficiency without LaMelo creating easy opportunities for everyone. I don't think simply increasing his scoring average will be enough. If Miller can improve as a playmaker while handling more offensive possessions, he has a compelling argument for this award. Charlotte may struggle as a team, but Miller could have a breakout year individually.
Sixth Man of the Year: Ajay Mitchell (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Oklahoma City lost quite a bit of perimeter depth with Dort, Joe and Wiggins departing, which should open up considerably more opportunities for Mitchell. He already demonstrated he can score efficiently and operate as a secondary ballhandler, and I expect Daigneault to give him an increased role off the bench. Playing on one of the best teams in basketball should help his case too. If Mitchell can maintain his efficiency with more minutes and offensive responsibility, I like his chances of winning this award.
Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra (Miami Heat)
It's honestly remarkable Spoelstra has never won this award considering how consistently he's gotten the most out of his rosters. Now he has an interesting challenge integrating Giannis alongside Bam without sacrificing too much offensively. The defensive possibilities are ridiculous, but I don't think the halfcourt offense will be nearly as easy to figure out. Miami sacrificed quite a bit of perimeter creation, so Spoelstra will have to find ways to generate efficient offense around two interior-oriented stars. If he can make this combination work and push Miami toward 50-plus wins, there's a strong argument he deserves the award. Carlisle and Mitch Johnson should be in the running as well, but I'm going with Spoelstra finally getting his recognition.
