NOC 11p gen 1 closed setup (D4 End: Dec 25 at 5 PM PST)

Celever

i am town
is a Community Contributor
we can't afford to mislynch, we don't have 400 days for that
I agree but idk who we shoot to have the lowest chance of mislynching because so much of this game is an awkward middle ground between townlean and scumlean. Like, my town core is me, you, Tommy and shub and SB on the fringe rn but I would be happy voting anyone else about equally.
 
sorry D2's been really shit from me, my mind's all over the place and i can't really read anyone well atm

initially thought bgb is a better vote from a selfish PoV even if i townread him more than shub because it would allow me to get a better idea of where everyone fits in this game - right now it's a lot of 'well this person is scummy but only if this person flips town, etc etc'. i understand how risky that is tho if a potential LYLO is created from it so now i'm not so sure.

even though i think i've had a bad D2 i think celever and duskfall have had a worse one - don't buy into celever's bgb vote much and i think his removal of me from his townreads reeks (in fact the whole potential flip to me reeks, but i'll address people's concerns anyway after this post)

duskfall has managed to shift the blame off of him very well and is now going under the radar. i don't like how he's been let off the hook so easily by everyone.

i'm finding this game incredibly difficult and confusing tbh
 
I agree but idk who we shoot to have the lowest chance of mislynching because so much of this game is an awkward middle ground between townlean and scumlean. Like, my town core is me, you, Tommy and shub and SB on the fringe rn but I would be happy voting anyone else about equally.
That Shub "town core" looks BS, all the other |town core reads/ No flip information| reads seem concrete and genuine. That just pretty strange of you. But I reckon that you haven't explained it yet. Let's hear it
 

Celever

i am town
is a Community Contributor
sorry D2's been really shit from me, my mind's all over the place and i can't really read anyone well atm

initially thought bgb is a better vote from a selfish PoV even if i townread him more than shub because it would allow me to get a better idea of where everyone fits in this game - right now it's a lot of 'well this person is scummy but only if this person flips town, etc etc'. i understand how risky that is tho if a potential LYLO is created from it so now i'm not so sure.

even though i think i've had a bad D2 i think celever and duskfall have had a worse one - don't buy into celever's bgb vote much and i think his removal of me from his townreads reeks (in fact the whole potential flip to me reeks, but i'll address people's concerns anyway after this post)

duskfall has managed to shift the blame off of him very well and is now going under the radar. i don't like how he's been let off the hook so easily by everyone.

i'm finding this game incredibly difficult and confusing tbh
Who do you you would buy into me voting? I already tried Caff to no support and have supported tbz as a contingency for a while (which you also called out as scummy iirc) so I think you're trying to fit my posts into a scummy glove instead of letting the reads come naturally.

SB made good points on you, what can I say. I personally read it as baffled town more than scummy progression, but it's scummy enough to remove you from the town core. I'm still not voting you today because I think it's better to free pass the biggest contributors for a day and focus on the harder to read ones / people with a lower opportunity cost to losing.
 

Celever

i am town
is a Community Contributor
That Shub "town core" looks BS, all the other |town core reads/ No flip information| reads seem concrete and genuine. That just pretty strange of you. But I reckon that you haven't explained it yet. Let's hear it
I explained it yesterday in my ISO, actually. That's meant to be phrased as Shub / SB are both on the fringe and my town core is really just me, Clarinet and Tommy fwiw.
 

Celever

i am town
is a Community Contributor
Who do you you would buy into me voting? I already tried Caff to no support and have supported tbz as a contingency for a while (which you also called out as scummy iirc) so I think you're trying to fit my posts into a scummy glove instead of letting the reads come naturally.

SB made good points on you, what can I say. I personally read it as baffled town more than scummy progression, but it's scummy enough to remove you from the town core. I'm still not voting you today because I think it's better to free pass the biggest contributors for a day and focus on the harder to read ones / people with a lower opportunity cost to losing.
who do you think you **
 
addressing everything sorry hang on

right now my problem is that i think i scumlean someone and then they post and then i think it's a towny post and stop scumleaning them and scumlean someone else and the same thing happens
 
I explained it yesterday in my ISO, actually. That's meant to be phrased as Shub / SB are both on the fringe and my town core is really just me, Clarinet and Tommy FWIW.
:blobglare:
Alright if you say so. the last progression I remember was Shub being in your "focus" pool which I translated to Lynch/scum pool. Don't think Much happen and now Shub is in your town core.
 

Celever

i am town
is a Community Contributor
:blobglare:
Alright if you say so. the last progression I remember was Shub being in your "focus" pool which I translated to Lynch/scum pool. Don't think Much happen and now Shub is in your town core.
This is a valid point and at the time I was a little unsure about putting Shub in the pool but I did include them.

They're one of the main ones in a really awkward middleground between townlean and scumlean and I keep flipping back and forth on it. My 3 top targets haven't changed between now and them Shub is just an awkward null.

Honestly what changed is Eagle left town core and made room for Shub. Filling a town core (even a D2-grade one) is harder than it should be this game.
 

Celever

i am town
is a Community Contributor
FWIW I think it was good that I was away for most of today because it stopped me leading discussion as much as I had been and there are probably good insights to be gleaned from it that I haven't analysed deeply enough to verbalise yet but they're changing a lot of my reads instinctively.
 
shub is a townlean from how they came back to the game while they were a wagon. They had the opportunity to side with Tommy against Former while they were competing wagons and then decided to say that Tommy came out of it looking worse than Former, and instead tried to start a wagon on a stronger scumread. We know Former was town from the D1 flip so it feels like shub would have to be really ballsy as maf to play out the EOD like that. I guess their waffle onto keeping Former in the lynchpool weakens this after thinking about it some more but at the same time, shub waited for someone else to flip the wagon (and I'd been voting shub earlier in the day so it's hard to imagine they'd be confident in me).
If you look at their post directly after though:

yea, sorry for the inactivity, pulled 18 hours yesterday and it was Not Pretty.

indifferent to getting voted off personally, but based on interactions bluegummybear > Former >> Clarinet > UTO [this one's just a gut read lol]. am i good at this game? no. am i going to go down swinging my bat wildly and hoping i smack a pinata or at the very least some bystander in the face? yes.

i'm still pages behind the actual discussion, but

vote bluegummybear
votes bluegummybear to join the counterwagon against them, while also stating that former is their second option they'd like voted off. if they're indifferent to getting voted off as they say they are, why put the two counterwagons as their most preferred members to vote off?

the fact that you didn't see this bugs me
 

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